The final results for 2017 look alright. A quick look at the figures shows gold production is lower than last year but silver is up as is overall income. The final dividend has been increased from 21.5 to 29.8 cents. The sp is down over 3% but many final results are showing negative effects on sp's atm. Buying opportunity?
Yes, SQZ is still very attractive, even after the recent heady rise, imv, following the self financing BP deal - Stockopedia has put out a note on the prospective stats for 2018 - forecast earnings of 34p ps, giving a p/e of 2.3, a PEG ratio of 0.3 and an NAV of 134p with cash in the bank currently of some £30m+ and no debt nor funding required.
When you need some cash, it's rarely convenient to find it! Sorry for the O/T folks - sasa.
Yes silver dropped below $16 last week. A lot of hot money has been put into cryto's. I notice that platinum is extremely cheap and it has been mentioned in Money Week again.
I've had a look at SQZ and it looks very promising. Yes, debt free is a big advantage. I haven't bought in yet due to lack of funds. I'm losing my marbles by being fully invested in a market that I think may well see the dreaded correction in 2018. Mr Trump's tax reforms may well make inflation spike and what will that do to the Bond market?
Hi casa - yes, I agree that FRES has suffered of late, like all pm miners but there's nothing new in that, as we both know. The prospective mkt 'sell off', when it occurs, usually starts to gather momentum when it's least expected ('black swans' and all that) so the best time is to stock up on the likes of FRES when the 'spotlight's' elsewhere.
I think their silver AISC is around $10 per oz with that for AU also in the lower quartile but they never stipulate quite what it is for some reason; bit annoying that...
Re: Serica (SQZ) I forgot to mention that they're debt free (know you'll like that!) have around $36m in the bank and growing around $3m per month BEFORE this transformational deal with BP which is, effectively, self - funding, as they begin to benefit from it from Jan1st - six months before the deal is officially signed off - haven't come across such an arrangement before.
Anyway, I'll put something up on the SQZ bb for you if you like, rather than clutter up this board with more O/T comment which others might find irritating - sasa.
FRES, gold and silver have taken a bit of a beating in the last few weeks. Silver is just hanging on to $16 oz at close today. The markets seem immune or at least ambivalent to the many threats to market stability. Mind you, the stability has continued for much longer than I thought it would. The FTSE, although still high, is nowhere near as overpriced as the US S & P. This bull run will end at some point and, depending what causes it to end, it may well favour gold.
I'll take a look at Serica (sqz). It sounds exciting and we know how sudden rises in earnings and how striking a gas find can propel the sp.
Hi casa - no cruises for me; just tied up with other things, that's all but it's nice to be 'missed' once in a while!
I'll have a look on the HGM bb and read about your CNCT inclination - that juicy yield sounds good if it's safe enough. Could do with something like that in my ISA to help with the school fees, which is what it's there for as much as anything!
By way of recip, have a look at Serica (SQZ) no divd yet but they've just pulled off a mega deal for them with BP, boosting their income stream next year by 7 x and their reserves by 16 x !
Although the sp has already doubled over the past fortnight, I don't think the mkt has properly cottoned onto the implications for them yet - think the sp is worth twice the present level, even now, imv... It's transformed into 85% a gas co, so 'green', too and there's an interesting 'spud' coming up mid - year '18 to add further excitement before then - a 'free carry' for them, too.
Re: Bitcoin and the zillions of other cryptos being created. What surprises me is that so many peeps don't realise that they're just created bits of metal (supposedly to counter the effects of QE) but because they're manufactured items and the blockchain supporting the digital ledger can be hacked again, their wealth protection capacity is illusory - why not invest in bespoke, vintage buttons? At least they're genuinely limited in quantity and serve a useful function!
Gold is not man made, is genuinely scarce and is the immutable unit of exchange going back thousands of years - for the newbies into this latest craze, it'll take that refuge to come to the fore when the game is suddenly up, for them to appreciate that, unfortunately....
Glad to learn that your op. was successful and that you'll soon be fully back on song ATB - sasa.
Ah there you are. I was getting quite concerned as I had left a message on the HGM board for you about CNCT. Have you been on a cruise for a month?
Anyway Connect (CNCT) or W H Smith mostly, has been falling in price for quite a while as you may well expect for a newspaper business. However, it has more strings to its bow and has decent cash flow. The recent report was disappointing as it confirmed losses but the underlying business looks upbeat. So much so that the management were able to INCREASE the dividend. Now the initial reaction is to think it's a classic value trap but if you read the report and the excellent analysis provided by Bill on the bulletin board, it looks very interesting. I have bought some. The dividend is currently nearer 9% than 8% and the final payment goes ex div on 11 of Jan.
Yes, I've also been reading about bitcoin. About a couple of years ago, I nearly bought one for a bit of fun. The price was about £400 but with me being about three years old in terms of being tech savvy, I decided that I wouldn't be able to keep it safe. Indeed many people have had them stolen or just lost them. Apart from the slight excitement of a gamble, the whole issue about cryptocurrencies has no appeal to me. Due to its meteoric rise in price this year, it smacks of the classic shoe shine boy recommendations of the 1920's.
I've also read that some think there could be a threat to main markets if the bubble bursts suddenly. They say it could trigger a market collapse, a little like the dotcom crash.
The limit to 21 million bitcoins may well be true but there is no limit as to how many other cryptos can be produced. No doubt it will all end up in tears. I'm sticking with gold and silver as my main defensive ploy.
I hope you are keeping well and your absence from the boards is no more than strikes me on occasions. That's when the posts are not giving useful opinions or information on the Company of interest. My op has gone well and all healed up but I have been left incontinent but should overcome this by April next year at the latest.
"At the end of every calendar year it's natural to look back and see where we've been, not only as a reminder of past successes and failures, but also to look for clues as to what to expect over the coming 12 months.It can be a helpful exercise ..."
" FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The USA's turkey festival surprised us by coming a week early! Apparently the last Thursday of November is not a fixed rule for gobbler massacres. Our complaint, the markets in Europe opted to enjoy a duvet day, ..."
Technicals record human behaviour, and as human behaviour doesn't change, then technicals are a generally good indicator of likely outcomes. Yes, of course traders and investors get it wrong, but I get it right more than I get it wrong, so make money. And btw, the action here is not your average technical trading, but something more organised and much more powerful. ;-)
You realise that the so wise "technicals" are all based on historical data don't you? Have they never let you down? The precious metal market appears becalmed atm. Many of the miners have dropped in sp, not just FRES. Let me ask you, do you not see the many black swans that are circling around? They are the curse of traders and that is why I am an investor.
Small relief rally to reset the technicals. Glad to see thruxie and others taking a winners stance and contemplating buying in at the appropriate level, instead of getting huffty about it like Rhino..... some people cannot trade with their heads, only their emotions, tut tut.
Toot Toot, Drop continues on larger than average vol. Chart shows no support until 1100. Hope you guys are making out like banditos and you remember to put me on your Xmas list. Easy money, bonus ahoy!
We don't mess about with penny stocks. Notice that Goldman also put a SELL rating on today, down to 1075. This will be worked down to target, so I am doing you a favor by telling you all to get off the long and onto the short.
FRES is no small explorer which is where we usually see your sort of comments, orsotoro. I don't mind you shorting FRES. In fact I encourage you to do so. The thing is, gold and silver have stood the test of time and always come good. Crypto's look like a load of hot air with no substance so keep loading up and leave the precious stuff to those who know.
After posting my SELL rec, now the big boys are with me ( JPM ). This baby is now fully under control and taking the expressway to 1100. Letting you all know so you can hop on the next stop and we can all get there quicker. ALL ABOARD. TOOOOOOOOT TOOOOOOOOT. YEBonus here I come.
HaHa.... you losers. Happy to take your cash all the way down to 1100. This dog has NO support down to there, so stop your limpid philosophising about the gold market ..... gold is DEAD. Cryptos are ripping all the hot money from the safety plays. This POS had a 'great' Q3, yet is falling like a STONE. Anyone who is putting a BUY on this is a conman and is trying to STEAL your money. Stay OUT of this until 1100.
Thanks Rhiggos, I also think the current price is a good entry point. Precious metals have been lacking direction recently. Silver looks to be undervalued. Gold is currently 70 times the price of silver whereas the long term ratio is around 40 times. Of course, gold could be overpriced but I certainly don't think so. As sure as night follows day, uncertainty, volatility and inflation will return. You don't have to look far to find the potential.
"Fresnillo said its outlook for the full year remains unchanged after delivering solid lifts in production of both gold and silver over the first nine months of the year. In the first three quarters of 2017, Fresnillo said silver output climbed 15% year-on-year to 42.7m ounces from 37m ounces, while gold production rose 1.7% to 679,000 ounces from 667,000 ounces. That follows the third quarter when silver production jumped 24% year-on-year to 14.6m ounces and gold output rose 6.1% to 233,000 ounces."
'We remain on track to meet our gold and silver production targets for 2017.'
'Construction of our other near term growth projects, the pyrites plant in the Fresnillo district and the second dynamic leaching plant at Herradura are on schedule, on budget and in line to be commissioned next year as planned.'
'Both will make a meaningful contribution to production growth in 2018.'
From third quarter production report:
"Quarterly and year to date by-product gold production decreased when compared to the corresponding periods in 2016 as a result of the lower ore grades, however, this was partially offset by the higher volume of ore processed. When compared to the previous quarter, by-product gold production decreased 6.2% as a result of the lower volume of ore processed and recovery rate. This was partly offset by the higher ore grade."
Bit confusing as they talk of both lower grade ore and and higher grade ore. The rest of the report seemed OK to me.
I think oversold on this report and so rate as a weak buy. Future SP of course dependant on precious metal prices. It also looks like someone got wind of report last week judging by SP moves.
With you there, casa - have just re-checked that they were not affected by the recent 'quake, either logistically or production wise. According to them, totally unscathed with their HQ having passed inspection to re-occupy, following the rumblings in Mexico City.
Ergo, am watching this very closely now and am poised, for what that's worth! - sasa.
I continue ro search for decent income stocks but after quite a few years, can only reach just over 2.5% pa. That includes some investments paying 6 and 7% which are hardly capital safe. Even infrastructure funds are now dodgy thanks to the recent statement by Mr Corbyn.
Hi casa - sorry to learn that you've just been in hospital for an op. - hope all went well, with you now posting again....
Haven't got back into FRES yet with POLY (the temporary replacement) doing rather better than the Mexican miner at present but am looking for a decent switch at some point. CEY and HGM simply reflect the dull showing of the pm's right now but remain attractive, imv. ATB - sasa.
I have just noticed your post here. I've been in hospital for an op recently so not been scouring the boards. I agree about FRES in that it is a useful play on both silver and gold and makes a superb defensive stock. However, I am currently holding equal amounts in FRES, HGM snd CEY but am more likely to increase the holding in FRES should the opportunity occur. I have read recommendations to hold between 5 and 10% of folio value in precious metals and I am already in excess of that figure so I am in no hurry to invest more.
Clearly the big geo-political risk is the North Korean issue which has overshadowed the continuing financial crisis and debt mountains. The US market continues to reach more highs and investors seem amazingly calm considering how over valued it is. One reason must be low interest rates. If you don't invest somewhere, you end up with a cash pile earning virtually nothing and being eroded by inflation.
Hi casa - I think, like others, that the FRES sp retreat simply reflects the recent weakness in AU and AG prices, otherwise it should have recovered usefully on the 'no damage' news just issued.
Just before the announcement, I opted for POLY, as a partial replacement, rather than HOC but am now scrutinising FRES more closely, vis a vis re-entry. I've always liked the 50 / 50 gold and silver split afforded by FRES, as you know, so am looking forward to getting involved again - sasa.
I, too, have re-entered FRES but with a reduced level to around 25% previously held. It's strange that the sp has fallen on the good news that the mines are unaffected. Usually investors flee at the merest sign of trouble. The sp drop today has enabled me to re-purchase at a lower level than I sold two days ago. I didn't expect to be that lucky!
I will credit you with the prompt that the management needed to issue the RNS.
Hi casa - we're on the same page here re: having to exit FRES as an expedient move in view of the tragic earthquake news last week.
I have e-mailed the Co to try and ascertain what damage to their mines / ops generally, if any, has been sustained but haven't had a reply so far. And now there's another major quake reported yesterday which is dreadful news for the folks over there. Can't help matters at all.
Have thought about HOC, too, as an alternative to FRES until we know what's what out there but the Co is not in the same league as the Mexican miner in many respects and so I'm hesitating about it as a temporary replacement.
It looks to be due for a bounce on the charts, as far as I can see but I need more than a T/A pointer to get involved. If FRES can emerge from these disasters relatively unscathed (they should have put out an RNS on the aftermath already, imv, especially being a FTSE 100 Co) they'll be lucky, I'd say but if they are relatively unaffected in the event, then I'll certainly go back in here.
I suspect the sp will continue to drift until matters are clarified.....sasa.
Unless I am hearing old news, Mexico has been hit with another major earthquake. I sold my holding in FRES yesterday on the strength of the previous occurence. I'm not happy though as FRES has been a significant defender of portfolio value. I have bought a small amount of HOC but I'm not so confident about holding significant stock there.
Well, I hope you're right, Jay - I was only going from their website / google maps, showing four of their operations in Southern Mexico some 200 miles inland from the quake zone (inc. the flagship Fresnillo mine) and maybe, Silver's experience was just lucky?
Until FRES issues a statement to the contrary, it's not just about mine integrity in the aftermath but also about general infrastructure damage / transport facilities etc., but like you, I'm no earthquake expert, either. GLA, anyway....sasa.
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