So explain why people don't want to own the shares at this price when they did at 50% more not long ago when there was less production and certainty ..... You plainly disagree with the accepted view that large players manipulate the market for their own ends ...
The pioneering work of Richard D. Wyckoff in the early twentieth century was centered around the realization that stock price trends were driven primarily by institutional and other large operators who manipulate stock prices in their favor. Many professional traders today use Wyckoff's method, but his overall approach is still not widely-followed among retail traders, even though his educational efforts were intended to teach the public the real rules of the game.
If an II or fund wants to acquire large quantities of stock they need to find ways to liberate that stock at prices that suit them ... isn't that logical...and they have financial clout and make so much for the middlemen that they can do it ...
Correct damp seaweed. Don't know about the 'wide boys' though - although if they are buying at sub 40p rather than 50p or 60p then surely they are the 'sensible boys'.
Anyway up FRR.
p.s. the sp has fallen because more people wanted to sell the shares than buy the shares at the higher price, it will stop falling once the price matches buyers and sellers equally and rise to put off buyers when there is an imbalance in favour of those wanting to buy - that's all it is and it is based on the sentiment of the people buying and selling. All of the theories expound by the holders are to avoid the fact that the sp falls because investors don't want to own the shares - this can't be as the shares are fantastic - therefore there must be a reason other than I am at odds in my opinion with the market - it must be someone else's fault.
The pioneering work of Richard D. Wyckoff in the early twentieth century was centered around the realization that stock price trends were driven primarily by institutional and other large operators who manipulate stock prices in their favor. Many professional traders today use Wyckoff's method, but his overall approach is still not widely-followed among retail traders, even though his educational efforts were intended to teach the public the real rules of the game. Nonetheless, his stock selection and investment methodology has stood the test of time, largely due to its thorough, systematized and logical structure for identifying high-probability and highly profitable trades. The discipline involved in this approach allows the investor to make informed trading decisions unclouded by emotion. Using Wyckoff's method, one can invest in stocks by capitalizing on the intentions of the large, smart money interests, rather than being caught on the wrong side of the market. Attaining proficiency in Wyckoff analysis requires considerable practice, but is well worth the effort. "
With such divergence between proven success in field operations and price movement the most likely answer is accumulation by a player or players stake building and in cahoots with the MMs to winkle out cheap stock ... it happens believe me...
Seems to be some sort of price manipulation going on with this share,sells going through bringing the sp down ,only to be cancelled the next day. This practise has been going on for days.Hope someone on this board can come up with a 'legal' explanation.
Well I said it wouldn't be long before the usual suspects appeared, trying to twist things.
Now playing devil's advocate for a moment it is perhaps fair to say that FRR have had problems historically with fractures from old Soviet well bores silting up, leading to rapid rates of decline in production. They have learnt from that experience and the new strategy involves deepening or sidetracking from the old well bores and then fracking the newly exposed formations with ceramic proppant.
Oh dear Jack - your getting really worried about the short. Set it too low?
Last week you were worrying that he hadn't included the word "commercial" in the RNS text. He obviously listened to your wisdom - the word appeared three times in the last RNS
Then he gives an interim flow test and you find fault with that. From the RNS: "commenced on 7 May 2018 with perforation and mechanical stimulation of 3m interval of the Zone 15, situated between 2628m and 2631m. On 18 May 2018, 3m interval of the Zone 14, situated between 2543m and 2546m, has been perforated, mechanically stimulated and flow tested together with Zone 15 ". They are doing this step by step - as they should - and they give us an interim update. Sounds perfectly good to me.
Most important of all he is talking about 1000 bopd by the end of HY2, and operational costs below $12 pb. Then right at the end he says - when asked about the three reasons to track FRR - the gas is one of the three. Watch this space.
what a complete oxygen thief and waste of space you are.
Stop attempting to devalue and twist things to suit your own pathetic agenda. The real twisted thing here is you, do us all a favour and go find a spider to pull the legs off. I'm sure that will give you more pleasure, you perverted misguided low life jaknife.
If you listen to this you'll hear Zaza slip up and tell the truth by accident. He says, about the Dino 2 well, at 11:39
"... and that's why we are hugely excited with Dino 2 well with such a flow rate like 350 barrels which we had a few days ago"
ie, in plain English, it's not a continuous ongoing test, it was a flow rate extrapolated from a shorter period of time.
This is the detail that Zaza was trying to hide from shareholders. He wants shareholders to assume that "350 barrels of oil per day" actually means 350 barrels of oil were extracted in one day as opposed to the real truth that it would have been something materially lower like 14.5 barrels in 1 hour (which equates to the same "flow rate"!
The Gas comment is especially relevant today as BP has announced that it is mothballing the Rhum gas field as it is part owned/JV with Iranian state company, so that is 5% of thier production gone! Maybe they may be lining up another option for making up that 5%?
Well, for whatever reason, the Market has not quite woken up to the fact that the Taribani wells are very valuable and turning FRR in to a positive cashflows position. Furthermore, as more wells come on stream (remember 2 more already lined up via T39 and Niko), the 103M barrels ascribed by NS&A will be eligible to be transferred to P1-P2 reserves. However, the most significant impact could be using these 4 productive wells, the existing CPRs and field studies to 'twist' the Georgian Govt's arm to grant us the production license. Here I believe financing and/or JV has already been agreed to a large extent and in order to roll out a full field development of 250-wells on Taribani field, we need to secure the 25-year production license.
Anyway, back to T-39; this started drilling on the 5th May and I expect this to be completed by the end of this weekend [i.e. say 27th May], with stimulation starting shortly after. So, under this timeline, initial flow rates could be with us in the next 10-14 days. Will T-39 throw up a nice surprise as it is being drilled to 2,800mtrs? Could be. Anyway, after T-39 stimulation of say 10-days, this will take us up to early June, and by then, the company will need to provide some guidance on the next stage of development and financing, including Niko. Thusfar, evidence on the oil production side has been very positive and the 3 wells could take up to 1,000bpd. I really hope that the company can leverage this cashflow to obtain some conventional lending facility to work the other wells.
People also seem to forget that we have already sunk all the PB funds in to these 4 wells and any incremental production is going straight in to the cashflows, so these wells are already raising our heads above the water [although Market doesn't recognize it!]... Make no mistake, we are getting stronger with each well and with every new barrel added to the production.
Clearly, YA issue is pending but I don't believe for a second that arrangements are not under discussion or negotiation. For argument sake, say 1,000bpd x$50 give us a net monthly income of $1.5M - I am sure they will sought out that problem with that kind of recurring income. For the record, remaining amount owed to YA is just $2.8M, so don't let other people make a mountain out of a molehill.
Finally, gas, glorious gas. I'm still optimistically hoping for some kind of news on Ud this week, notwithstanding any behind the scene politics. Talking of politics, we need an update on the arbitration request plz.
Still lots pending and lots to come in my opinion but any one that thinks FRR is a weaker company now than 3 months back, needs their head examined.
For now, we maintain our fair value estimate of 0.82 p/sh. We believe that the current price of Frontera materially undervalues the company and that recent market dynamics have not appreciated the significance of the promising initial results from production testing at Taribani.
As I've said before, if you build it they will come. FRR are clearly building something here, not just the increased production we are now seeing, but proving up the commerciality of the Eldari formation, and if T39 also delivers the goods it's job done and others with more cash resources will want to be part of its development.
The share price is unfortunately the play thing of shorters, day traders and the T20 brigade whose horizons can be very short term. Many people are it seems using T20s to get twenty days credit on a stock. They take out the position ahead of expected well results and if they do not have the means to pay off the credit they have to sell when time is called, and I suspect that was today for those who sold into the small rise.
I remain convinced that much greater rewards will come for those who hold until the four well campaign has fully reported and others have had the opportunity to chew it over. We know that Exxon are now taking an interest in Georgia but who knows who else is watching and waiting here now that oil is back in a bull market? Then there's the gas, which remains an enigma, but could well be subject to extended flow testing to meet the demands of interested parties. The longer the wait the more reliable the well results will be, but I would be very surprised if we don't hear something within a fortnight or so.
If I were short on this stock I would be expecting to exit upon successful results from Ud2, but what if a deal is announced at the same time as the results? The possibility of a large gap up on that day can certainly not be discounted. Then a bigger gap as the shorts have to compete to close at the opening price or above.
Longs will have their well deserved moment of schadenfreude when that day comes , but until then we must steel ourselves for the usual suspects coming to taunt us, I suspect.
Back to my bunker now with a good supply of rations preparing for the great day when patience is rewarded.
I see Wassock Shakoor has been trying again to slag FRR ... but he can't even get what flowed correct! It was OIL NOT GAS you numpty! And ... " It flowed at 315 bbls per day well, at least part of one day. Apparently thats commercial, but I doubt shareholders can count their winnings just yet." As I posted before, the flow rate is described as stabilised ... and this cannot be achieved in a part of a day... http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:FRR.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=12309612 .
He has also just caught "short" with his pants around his ankles by Ocado Hahahaha!
"This sets us up nicely as a core business for the gas wild card to be played."
And our Gas is certainly wild. . . .
When we drilled Dino-2 on 19-04-18 we were told that;
-Formation gas flows - mud weight reduction and oil at surface at 2445-2460 (zone 12)
-Formation gas flows and oil over shakers at 2520-2540 (zone 13)
Now we have not perforated/exploited those zones 12 & 13 yet, but we were also told;
- Increased connection gas and formation gas at 2570-2600 (zone 14 that we have now reported on) as well as
- Elevated background and connection gas during zone 15 drilling. Again subject of oil only flow results.
-After cement casing increased gas presence resulting in mud weights reduction 1.88SG to 1.20SG.
No mention of gas flows today, though we have it tapped I am sure in our wonderfully effective frac-stack well head Christmas tree.
Similar picture brewed with plenty of gas kicks and was not confirmed/announced through T-45 drill and completion and flow results.
Zaza commented after the drill completion update on T45 on 20-Feb-18
that we had "a highly charged Hydrocarbon formation" in regard to the Eldari formation into which these three Taribani drills are exploring/producing of late.
I think that the drill completion updates that discussed experiences that clearly contained significant Gas shows, were for an audience that is removed from us PI's. I think that audience is a potential suitor and I think that The Gas is for them.
I believe that we are not far away from a show of hands now, a Takeover or Aquisition or a very significant farmout is in the pipeline. Potentially leaving Frontera a rather nice and not so little Oil portfolio to bring to the market steadily over time as we make a load of money out of The Gas.
Very happy with this - and quite a few first thoughts
- he was very clear at the presentation - a) the perforation schedule will be adapted according to latest information (eg rock data, porosity etc), and b) these are test wells - for potentially 250 other wells. From what we have seen and heard they want to test each zone thoroughly and independently, and as 14 and 15 are the new areas these are being very carefully initiated. I suspect this is partly for future CPR and proving purposes - the previous NSA data will at some point need to be updated and they will want very clear data on each zone.
- the economic model was updated positively re T45 - and no doubt WHI and the company will update again. Will surely be another upgrade
- the longer we have no news on UD2 the better. They are doing all this very properly and clearly thoroughly
- T39 won't be too far away, and quite possibly oil is already flowing. As SB says with Zone 9 we should be seeing well over 1000 bopd in HY2. Zone 13 may well add to this figure
- Zaza's comments are back in the "hugely positive" mode - he stood back a bit after the arbitration issue. He knows pretty well how and when information will be RNS's - and I think he will play this for all its worth
- As SB says there will are some serious cash flow impacts starting to arise, and ZMs comments are very much aimed at SOAG/GOGC etc
- Any interested partner/investor will be looking at this with growing interest, and I suspect a number of new financing options are emerging for YA, Niko, MK Seismics, gas pipelines etc
No doubt the SP will take time to respond - but for what it is worth the next 6 to 8 weeks are in my view building up to be the most significant in the history of FRR (thus far)
Yep another solid result which confirms the commerciality of the Eldari formation both within the Taribani feld and the wider block, so this is partly a message to the State agencies that they aren't getting their grubby little hands on any of it.
Revenue should now have increased to around around £1.5 Mill a month which sets things up nicely for bank funding, but perhaps awaiting T39 results for confirmation. Hopefully pay off YA through bank funding too.
I have put my money where my mouth is and added another tranche in my ISA.
Wonderful initial results from Dino2 - takes overall daily production to 765bpd. With T-39 around 3 weeks away from completion, hopefully we can hit the magical number of 1,000bpd very soon.
Taking an average PoO of say US$70, that's US$70k extra cashflow every day. Hopefully this will help us to secure new RBL facility, which I feel is probably being discussed.
Anyway, what is hugely important to remember is that both Dino and T45 are ONLY currently producing from zones 14 and 15. Zone 9 to come on line within next 30-60 days, so another 20%-30% uplift in daily production. And, yet we still await an announcement for what plans of Zone 13 [could also be very lucrative but could be dictated by arranging new financing?].
Also very interesting to note Zaza's comments, but specifically this..."The ongoing Block 12 Study Program, with the extensive geological and geophysical works, continues to confirm that the Eldari reservoir is very well developed within the Block 12 boundaries and extends well beyond 800sq.km wide Taribani Complex, where 80 sq.km Taribani field is situated. The current success of the Dino-2 testing is an important step forward towards achieving commercial development of the Taribani oilfield."
I take this as strong hint that they will be pushing the Georgian Govt to convert the license to a production one.
Finally, Ud-2 news this week? I think the chances has to be high. In the meantime, daily cashflow has increased US$60K a day - this is making tangible progress [and to think the price of oil makes little difference to company like FRR].
"Another solid (but not spectacular result). But that is the key here people need to go and get a spread sheet out and work out the longer term economics of a cascading program over the next 5 years adding multiple wells a year with a 9 month payback per well.
Why is the result important?
1. The program is being executed to plan, safely and within budget. It is demonstrating that the vertical well approach using bigger stimulations and propant is working on a difficult formation. That matters if you are seeking non-dilutive funding or to attract farm in interest.
2. Even this modest flow rate is important. T45 doubled current revenue. This has done the same but a bit better. The business will now start to accumulate cash to reinvest. We are now most likely doing 750 Bopd. T39 will be interesting and as its right next to Niko the deeper zone is well understood so I would think we will be doing 1000bopd by end of June.
This sets us up nicely as a core business for the gas wild card to be played.
A solid result that underpins the business. Well done Zaza and the team"
If they were purely wanting to be producers they would have perforated all the pay loads in all 4 wells, but they haven't. Why not? Many have been disappointed and sold out because of just testing 3Mt. in each well. They are clearly proving up all wells as quickly and as cheaply as possible.
"to confirm robust economics of the Taribani wells and commercial attractiveness of the Eldari formation of the Taribani field. "
"We are hugely excited to have achieved a commercial production rate of 315 bbls/d from Zones 14 and 15. Dino-2 is the second well in a row, after well T-45, to confirm robust economics of the Taribani wells and commercial attractiveness of the Eldari formation of the Taribani field. The ongoing Block 12 Study Program, with the extensive geological and geophysical works, continues to confirm that the Eldari reservoir is very well developed within the Block 12 boundaries and extends well beyond 800sq.km wide Taribani Complex, where 80 sq.km Taribani field is situated. The current success of the Dino-2 testing is an important step forward towards achieving commercial development of the Taribani oilfield."
We know Exxon and B.P. are interested! These tests and further seismic surveys are being done for their benefit, not ours or the S.P.
21 May 2018
Frontera Resources Corporation
("Frontera Resources" or "the Company")
Well Dino-2 Update
Frontera Resources Corporation
(AIM: FRR), the European-focused oil and gas exploration and production company, is pleased to provide a flow test update on Dino-2 well, situated in Taribani Complex of onshore Block 12, Georgia.
As previously announced on 8 May 2018, extended well stimulation and testing program of the 78.8 m combined pay interval of target Zones 9, 14 and 15 of the Eldari A reservoir at Dino-2 well (the second well of the current three-well drilling/testing campaign) commenced on 7 May 2018 with perforation and mechanical stimulation of 3m interval of the Zone 15, situated between 2628m and 2631m. On 18 May 2018, 3m interval of the Zone 14, situated between 2543m and 2546m, has been perforated, mechanically stimulated and flow tested together with Zone 15.
The well naturally flowed light, sweet crude oil at a stabilised flow rate of 315 bbls per day. The intention is to continue to test the combined flow of Zones 14 and 15 and within a period of approximately 60 days, perforate and mechanically stimulate Zone 9 and produce from all target zones together. As previously announced,£in addition to these target Zones 9, 14 and 15, a 20.0m pay interval has been confirmed in Zone 13 and the£Company is also considering the perforation and stimulation of Zone 13 in addition to the original Zone 9, 14 and 15 targets. The market will be updated about the final decision in due course.
CPR estimates for Original Oil in Place in target Zones 9, 14 and 15 of the Eldari A reservoir in Taribani field are 689 million barrels, with 103.5 million barrels considered to be recoverable.£
Zaza Mamulaishvili, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"We are hugely excited to have achieved a commercial production rate of 315 bbls/d from Zones 14 and 15. Dino-2 is the second well in a row, after well T-45, to confirm robust economics of the Taribani wells and commercial attractiveness of the Eldari formation of the Taribani field. The ongoing Block 12 Study Program, with the extensive geological and geophysical works, continues to confirm that the Eldari reservoir is very well developed within the Block 12 boundaries and extends well beyond 800sq.km wide Taribani Complex, where 80 sq.km Taribani field is situated. The current success of the Dino-2 testing is an important step forward towards achieving commercial development of the Taribani oilfield.£
This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of EU Regulation 596/2014.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.