''My guess, we may get some initial flow rates by Thursday [their favorite day to report news] as only 3 zones to perforate and stimulate, providing the elusive high pressure pumps have found their way to T45.''
Is it not all about stabilised flow rates SB as opposed to initial flow rates? So reporting inital flow rates is perhaps a dangerous and unadvisable thing to do.. and by definition it takes at least multiple days and perhaps longer to confirm stabilised flow rate? So I'd be very surprised if any fliow rate feeback came out this week.. but, of course, anything is possible..especially of they decide for whatever reason to feedback on initial flow rates asap... but imho first T-45 flow rate feedback RNS by end of March would be great and it might easily take longer than that...
Some observations - in the RNS dated 20th Feb, company told us "...fluid flow rate of 383 bbls per day was recorded" but in the Podcast last week, Zaza mentioned this as oil not fluids. Slip of the tongue, or an early teaser? Whatever the case, the Market didn't buy it. Anyway, the more important thing to note is that the well flowed 383bpd with "heavy drilling mud in the wellbore" [after the gas kick the mud weight fell from 2.0SG to 1.85SG]. So, once they've cleaned the mud out, flow rates should be much, much higher. How much higher? Well, I guess the best way to answer that question is...... how long is a piece of string? Furthermore, which all seem to be easily overlook is "....drilling confirmed the presence of 98.9 m of combined pay interval of target Zones 9, 14 and 15". So, put the two factors together [flow rates with mud in the bore but double the size of the payzone], they company may finally deliver a pleasant surprise.
As far as Dino-2 is concerned, this has been the experimental well where all the drilling approach has been perfected. It is also a well that was named of Steve's father - I am sure they will try to make Steve proud when we finally complete the well.
Clearly the downers are the slow approach to drilling operations and the lack of clarity on the Gas Window operations.
My guess, we may get some initial flow rates by Thursday [their favorite day to report news] as only 3 zones to perforate and stimulate, providing the elusive high pressure pumps have found their way to T45.
Based on your logic then 380 bpd is the worst case scenario !
Seriously, I think it would not make any sense to give this info unless it was on a full, per day basis otherwise they would have been shouting from the rooftops.
In that case is it safe to say they have flowed roughly... 10,640 barrels to date? (20 days at 380 per day) Or was the 383 bbls per day was the initial flow and then stopped flowing after 2minutes?? You see, not enough detail...
I'm not expert but 380 barrels pre-perf sounds pretty good to me. If this increases (as expected) after perforation and then one multiplies up for the number of expected wells over this field then we really do start to generate some impressive numbers.
Martin - on T45 they reported open hole flows of circa 380 bopd. However that is before any stimulation - which can only start once cementing is finished (done), the drill removed (done) and the perforation teams are in place and have set up (we assume starts this week/next week). Once perforations are completed then they will test again. Once they have steady flow rates from the co-mingled outflows (9, 14, and 15) they will report. Still a little way to go
Same for U2 - they said they need to maximise the propant impact and pump capability. The issue is whether this is pre, post or concurrent with T45 and Dino - and that is what we have yet to find out.
Personally - am quite relaxed here - and the absolute must is to do it properly. The cement work here is critical and has to be right first time.
Have to say the take down, move and build seems to have been done very quickly. Impressed.
I understand that it is a bit more complicated to side track - and there are several different approaches that can be adopted. Successfully cement plugging the abandoned original bore is pretty critical - so the sooner they can get cracking the better. No doubt they will again take this step by step and not allow themselves to cut any corners.
Problem is, their news on the surface is good. But there is no substance to the news. We are not getting flow rates or time lines. For all it would do, they could say, they are flowing gas. But unless they tell us what gas and how much, it makes no difference. FRR appear to never really share actual flow rates.
...Not expecting any flow rate news maybe a holding RNS so might we see a sub 40???
hope not but the late "great" 1db1 reckoned if this went sub 40 FRR was "toast" but basically needed a miracle anyway......was it fozzer who pee'd him off originally, apparently he sold out at ~80.......they always do.
Easter week looks like being the fun week....fingers crossed.
Just reviewing the pictures from the Dino-2 site posted yesterday, it does appear that the heavy equipment and major rig structure have been moved from the T45 site (hopefully giving clear access to start the wireline/perforations, followed by the stilumations. We also know that 7-containers of 'ceramic proppant' were delivered to the T45 site on the 13th March. The only missing component of the machanical stimulation is the high pressure pumps. Again, if you revisit the first picture that was posted on twitter on 13th March at the T45 site, under the comment ".....After successfully completed drilling operations, moving equipment to Dino 2 location", there is a big red truck in the background and on the top of it, there appears to some kind of red pumps. But I'm no O&G expert, so may be someone more qualified can provide some clarity.
Whatever the case, I hope the management and PR team realise that the drilling momentum needs to continue, so this is an important part of the operation and can be turned around quickly so at least we can get some early results, for a much needed boost to the sp.
On Ud, still no Update on the preparation for the '70-metric tonne' stimulant as announced in the 22nd Jan RNS. The delivery of the ceramic proppant was sent to the 'Taribani warehouse' so we don't if the 7 containers included supplies for Ud site or just the Taribani oil campaign.
Anyway, Dustin's token share purchase of 0.5m yesterday may have been used to help comply with regulation requirements as there was no announcements on how he acquired the other 2.3m.
Finally, the share price movement has been hugely disappointing given the massive steps the company has taken operationally, but the recent fund raising (PB and II resulted in nearly 900m new shares issued) plus the monthly YA have all taken their toll on the sp. YA only have another c.54m to be allocated next month and then we have a clear run way for a few months.
Rule 1 : don't post on a bulletin after 6 pints of Doombar...
The fact we've not had a UD -2 update in this long or indeed the fact Dustin is able to buy - or sell - around this time is AIM in a nutshell.
Generally, I have no issue with either of these occurrances as 'them's the rules' . as in there are little or no rules .. but it is what it is .. and nobody is making anybody participate.. you place your bets and you takes your chances.. and gut instinct based on lots of experience is perhaps the most useful tool...
ps: my gut tells me this will go meaningfully higher than .45p in the coming weeks and or months but wtfdik and, as ever, DYOR
I think the interesting bit here is that it was notified at all - I cant recall a PMDR from FRR being RNSd before. Directors yes, others no.
Plus I suspect Dustin may well have options as part of his deal - and he has clearly bought before. He is pretty young and presumably has family etc plus all the usual financial overhangs of a young exec - so the holding doesnt surprise me that much
So why notify this particular small buy? I suspect that the nomad has been going through stuff and has said something. In fact qUite unusual for a PMDR to be RNSd in any company - especially when this small.
Perhaps we are at long last getting close to the defining moments
I'd rather Dustin buying than selling by a long chalk.... but no fear of him betting the farm, in fairness :-)
Not in posession of well stimulation knowledge at UD-2 is an interesting point ToT.. and note no smiley face from me after this sentance.
''Rig move 80% complete; Rig up 55% complete''
Dangerous to guess I know, but Frr seems one long guessing game and that's part of the 'fun' ..so:
I guess that means as of this morning there still remains 20% take down of rig to complete at T-45.. so, given pace of take down and previous general experiences... I also now guess there's a more decent chance than I'd hoped that Mike will get to use next tax years ISA allowance to buy more at - MAYBE/HOPEFULLY - a 'bargain basement' price and maybe even a 'back of the bargin baement' price...
I think that what this says is that Dustin is not in possession of any price sensitive information i.e. outcome of well stimulation at Ud2 and T45. So last chance to buy ahead of those outcomes becoming available. Ergo we need to show a little more patience but Dustin is confident that he will not make a loss on his investment.
Is this small amount supposed to inspire confidence, i have over 100k invested and im a lot further from the action. If i was staring at the pools of oil ide sell the wife and kids and buy more.....Hmmmm maybe im being harsh
Notification of Transactions of Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities ("PDMRs")
Frontera Resources Corporation (AIM: FRR), the European focused independent oil and gas exploration and production company, was notified on 15 March 2018 by Dustin Aro, Vice President, Well Completion and Stimulation, of the purchase of 536,000 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"). Following this share purchase, Mr. Aro holds a total of 2,886,000 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.02 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital. The share purchase occurred at the available market price as set forth below.
Date - 15 March 2018
Purchase Price - 0.465 pence
No. of Shares - 536,000
Approx £2.5ks worth
This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of EU Regulation 596/2014
If anything I think the fact that Theresa May has got a BIG four US, Germany, France and UK combined show of force together to rebuff The Russian aggression (there has been a lot of it in many forms including carpet bombing Syria to displace refugees, Bears buzzing EU countries airspace, Ships buzzing EU nations sea lanes and political interference in elections apparently) is a good thing for the likes of Ukraine and Georgia.
These countries have seen a Russian aggressor rebuffed in the clearest possible political way (with more to follow).
A Russia intent on disruption is made stronger by weakness of the nations it practices its aggression upon. COB take note!
Stand up to the bully though and the weaker nations are empowered!
This will ultimately be very good for old Soviet nations.
Russia won't invade them with the BIG four of NATO telling it to get back in its box.
Three US and UK Nuclear Submarines just broke through the icepack in The Arctic.
Get on with you sham election and go back to sleep bear!
Well, JN, I think there was greater probability of this company going to Zero in 2011, when the company owed $110m in bonds to DDJ but instead these were successfully converted to shares at 4p, then there was all the palaver with Outrider via corporate espionage, and not to mention the ongoing political spats/obstacles with Kakha and his MoE. Finally to wrap all this perfect storm, we had an oil price environment that at one point, pushed PoO down to $30 resulting in many companies hitting the wall and a very sour investor sentiment. So, in my view the chance of this going down to zero has passed. Why? Well, FRR has addressed the debt issue which have crippled bigger companies like GKP, with the CLNs pushed forward to 2020, Management debt of c.$26m converted at 1p a share and YA debt reduced from £7m to £2.8m. In addition, price of oil is healthy, the MoE demolished and our 4 well-program is fully funded. So what is your argument that this is now going to zero? But if you were to make your arguments based on operational limitations and/or failure of the upcoming wells, I think i would give you some basic rudimentary credit. So, let us consider these for a moment: T-45 successfully completed operations drilling moving to Dino. Results from T45 thusfar have exceeded all expectation on the size of the payzone, porosity and down hole pressure. Probability of this well not delivering juicy sweet oil (presently) appears low. The rig has now moved to Dino-2 where arguably FRR have achieved all the operational success and the basis for establishing long term production (but doesn't mean g'teed success there but probability has to be highest at this well).
Then there is Ud gas well. Underestimated by many as it fallen off 'the radar' but let us not underestimate what the company achieved by producing natural gas from the prelavant Gareji/Maykop on B12 for the first time in Georgia's history. Based on FRR internal estimates, publically declaring that you may have 202TCF on your license would have shaken the Ruskies and our friend/foe, the Azerbaijanis.
Finally, I keep banging on about Dustin's hiring but that young fella has the opportunity to make some very big waves in the O&G industry is the oil and gas starts to flow on B12 - that test is nearly upon his young shoulders, hence my reasoning for showing a little more patience.
So, while some may have heard it all before, I would urge little more patience - we have waited long enough, we can wait a few more weeks.
You've religiously followed Frontera for over a decade and, in that time, have watched the share price fall by 99.7%. It must be wonderful to have that much patience that you are happy to watch the share price fall yet another 99.7% as it inevitably heads to the share price that all similar businesses have headed to before .... zero.
not only would you get to use your new ISA allowance Kent but you may well also get to buy at lower than .46p Kent if no meaninghful results on T45 by new tax year imho... a win win for you perhaps.. although plenty might not see this going lower than .46p as a win, granted.
I'd be very disappointed if results on T-45 did not come out by late March.. at a guess I'd now say earlyish of the week of 26th March is more likely than back end of the week of 19th, but still a half decent chance of the latter... but maybe I should be wiser than to even hazzard any guess at this stage.. no fun in that though :-)
Re YA after June 16th - I asked Lev about this at the January 25th event - there were a number of people in the conversation including Nick and I think R8 from LSE.
He gave a strong impression that the company then have a number of options - including of course paying off the debt on a cash basis. I got a clear impression that YA couldn't simply restart the conversion on the current terms and that there would be a pause before any new action triggered.
I think we can be fairly sure that YA will, after the next conversion, be left with around 2850 preference shares - which on a straight cash conversion would equate to just under $2.5 million.
Those who have talked to Zaza will also know that he hates the deal - which I guess SN mainly drove. And as he now owns over 1 billion shares in this enterprise I am pretty sure that he will be just as keen to minimise further dilution from the YA deal in any way he can.
I still have a lingering feeling that news is being managed to some extent to get shot of the YA shares ASAP. Just think about it - if the SP was significantly higher the conversion process would have carried on right up until June 16th, and YA would have then been left with far more than the 2850 preference shares that they will now get.
Whatever - their options will only be available if they can move to monetisation and asset confirmation in the intervening months. Which I have to say all seems very possible.
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