I like that method Ecologist, it makes sense locking in profits along the way.
You will of course sometimes miss out a little on a prolonged rise........but you'll gain big during the sharp re-traces.
The thing you seem to accept that many don't is that ALL stocks must have big re-traces at certain points.......whatever the 'potential' or events.
Just to re-cap, the assumption is now that the breaching of the falling down-trend line from 45.5p is indicating that the next leg up is 'likely' in its early stages.
If so, the next chart target is around 52p which would take the stock back to the resistance shelf of the large 7 month triangle that ran until last summer. This would make sense technically.
The rise should take at least a week. I think FUM may see a small move back towards the 35p level on Monday before it starts to move higher faster.
Like Tony, I think we may also see a small correction around the resistance of 44p/45p before finishing the move.
Once the proposed move higher has some more structure I can look in more detail for a more accurate refining of the target.
I am hoping in the region of 47p but I would likely start to sell at 43-44p (when my profit crosses the 30% mark).
Let me explain: with AIM stocks - I hold 8 or 9 at any one time - I tend to be happy to take profits when a threshold of +25-30% is reached, keep the cash and buy back in when / if the price falls back. I have been doing this with FUM for a while, slowly building up my pot.
I am currently thinking very hard about selling out of Iofina, which has achieved my profit level - and kicking myself for not getting out of CLNR and Tertiary a few days ago. But I really am an ecologist and so have to concentrate on work more than on the stock market!
As expected (there I go again) from the chart, the 50% re - trace level held and FUM has now breached the falling downtrend line giving us a degree of confidence that the next leg upwards has started. It's the trade price which matters Tony and not the spread....that's only used by MM's.
The next target higher is now visible which should be met within the next coulple of weeks.
Often targets are reached exactly, but analysis of the pattern closer to it will allow greater accuracy.
Would anyone like to suggest a target for the top of the next 'leg' before I give the chart view?
..... it says "TTK will be one of two manufacturers of CSD500 as part of the Company's strategy to guarantee international supply".
I emailed Mr Barder several weeks back pointing this out, and that's when he gave a side step. He has given "politician type" answers to anything CSD so I haven't bothered recently because I know it'll be a waste of time, with a more likely answer now being "we'll update the Market when we can".
Too right, fx2452. Also think the BOD will favour a takeover ........ Mr Barder is knocking on 60 (even though he doesn't look it!) and John Clarke and Ken James are both in their 60s. Anyhow, takeovers usually come with "consultancy contracts" for directors for a spell.
Hopefully the 36p PJ refers to as a breakthrough re the trend line will (or has been?) be breached (which begs the question ...... is the 36p the bid, the offer, or the mid? Or doesn't it matter?), then (hopefully) onwards and upwards. GLA.
Some very long term shareholders on this board feel like it's been a long, arduous journey. Spare a thought for JB- whatever you may feel, you can be sure to multiply it by a large factor for how JB feels.
I would argue that because of the aforementioned, it makes it more likely that a Buy Out would be considered. He's rejected one in the past, I doubt he'd reject one in the present. Given that our market Cap is so low, any takeover offer will likely be a nice multiple of the current share price.
There's a very strong likelihood that MED will be a blockbuster product. Why would a big pharma want to share the profits when a 'mere' £250m (or so) buys the company along with its other good potential products and CSD500 and the delivery system.
I'm in Tony's camp- a positive PK study and JB gets to put his feet up with a nice single malt and a healthy bank balance.
If Burton Albion played Man Utd enough times......they would win one.......that's guaranteed.
That one 'time' might come during the one 'cup game' event.........we can't know until afterwards.
It's the same with stock prices......we can't know what will play out until it plays out. But we can allocate the 'probabilities. That's because the 'statistical' way stocks move is understood and a method applied ( just like the weather forecast). And just like the weather, a 'flap of the butterfly's wing' or a few trades at a key point, can change the picture.
Some say, you aren't telling us what will happen, you are saying the SP might go up, or might go down.
Yes.......that's exactly what I'm saying. It could.
Do they think that 'someone' knows what will happen in the future ? Because they are really asking me to try and read it.
Likewise those that think that I have a good run of 'calls' followed by a few wrong 'calls' are totally missing the point of my posts.
Yes, it will 'look' like I'm about 70% right about things......but that is just how the chart probabilities will tend to play out on a day to day basis.
I'm not trying to be 'right' or 'wrong' .........I'm trying to present what the stock chart 'suggests' will likely happen at particular junctures.
Thanks again, PJ. Yes I remember "probability trees". I suppose a return to the 20s is akin to the probability of Burton Albion beating Man Utd in a cup tie .......... very unlikely but not impossible.
Aberdeen - the problem I have with there being no takeover and FUM going it alone (albeit in partnership) is that they are too small with little clout, as shown when being bullied by Reckitts and rejected by Church and Dwight and GSK (pain relief). I fear their input in any partnership will be so weak it'll prolong the agony and frustration we've all been living for the past 10 years (in my case). Past experience may lead to FUM negotiating more water tight deals, but I won't hold my breath.
So ...... and referring to my comment about the blandness of CSD on FUM's website (and not mentioning going for further deals) and MED's "non-reference" to regional or global deals .......... I was inferring that a deal has already been done (IMO) conditional on the PK studies (and if Phase 3 allows high doseage to treat severe ED). I also can't picture the likes of Pfizer and Reckitts marketing and selling "a potential ED treatment market leader" without having TOTAL control, and having little FUM snapping at their heals.
Despite all of these excellent technical analysis posts, I think PJ is secretly in for Tony's anticipated £1-50 per share takeover bid.
From the FUM website;- "We have appointed advisers to assist in the out-licensing process of MED2002"
That's possibly because JB feels he needs extra assistance to try an ensure there is no repeat of a partner sitting on a license and ultimately handing it back. I don't think , however, that advisers are usually bought in just for a licensing process.
It's probably just a bit of wishful thinking but bringing in advisors might be because one of the potential outcomes is an outright sale. Advisers would be needed to assist with due diligence etc. My view is that FUM are keeping all options open.
If I could just play devils advocate and give another version of events not as exciting as a takeover though...appreciate your thoughts...
In the words of Morpheus from the Matrix..................what if........................what if we are all getting a bit too carried away and in actual fact, it's just normal boring business as usual...what if 2018 was something like below"....
Long periods of silence with intermittent news as regulatory approvals are received and products are launched....
Some time in 1Q we finally get approval for the 18 month shelf life for the German manufacturer and some other Middle Eastern Launches by Kabey Pharma...This leads to Blue Diamond selling again...
Stada submits it's regulatory approval in 2Q although it was planning to do so in 1Q.
The European launches for south east europe and Portugal (mentioned in the interims) go ahead in 2Q of 2018
PK studies complete just in the beginning of 2Q and there is a period of silence as we await a deal.
Deal is finally announced in 2Q for MED2002 with upfront payment and milestone payments forming an "overall deal size"
CSD500 for areas previously licensed to Church & Dwight is announced at around the same time as the MED deal.
Phase 3 study efficacy bit commences in 3Q of 2018
3Q - A new pain relief deal
4Q - No further news...apart from some bits of info on the new CSD500 partner making preparations to launch the product in North America and or Europe.
What if it was as above.. boring I know but would you still be happy if everything that is mentioned above actually happened?
Great to hear you talking about 'likelihoods'.........you are really starting to understand my posts which is actually something very few readers will do.
I can answer your question thoroughly.
For the current bullish cycle to remain in-tact the SP 'must' remain above 28p.....that's non-negotiable or else there is a major problem with the chart assumptions.
Now for the re-trace itself. Now that the re-trace has hit the 50% level, there is a 60% likelihood that the 50% level will hold ( around 33p)............and a 70% - 80% likelihood that the re-trace will finish between 33p and the 61.8% re-trace level which is around 31p.
That means that there is currently only about 20% probability that the stock will fall to between 31p and 28p. These are all calculated probabilities.
So it is 'unlikely' (low probability) that we will see the 20p range again.......but here is the caveat.
When a chartist says 'low probability' he doesn't mean 'no probability'. This ties-in with the brief discussion with the chap from the other bb last night, who did never manage to get his head around my posts ( even though he thought that he did).
If I say something has a probability of say 10%......this will play out 10 times out of a hundred if we replayed the same event. As a chartist, I have no way of knowing whether this will be one of those 10 events. So, I don't even try to 'state' what will happen.......I merely give the likelihoods.
it's like the weatherman who says that there is a 90% chance of no rain on a particular day. If it rains everyone says that he is 'wrong'. In fact, he isn't.........there was always a 10% chance of rain.
It's exactly the same with charting. No-one can look into the future and fore-tell anything.....so why would they even claim that they know what will happen ? Chartists use 'probability', and that is something that most people simply don't understand.
When a stock moves and the following day I proclaim........'As expected by the chart the stock moved blah blah....'
What I am actually saying is.......that the 'most probable' event predicted using the chart actually played out. I am not saying that 'I was right'. I was not right because I didn't know what would happen.
What I am really doing is 'describing' the probabilistic course of the stock using the data available.
As I say.......this simply won't chime with most readers.
Charting is not about being right or wrong......and not about 'ego'. Its actually about dealing with uncertainty and the unknown which is the stock market.......and looking at possible risk and reward scenarios.
I don't think you are barking up the wrong tree Tony.
The link you provided contains some information, but there is much I think that is not commented upon.
"We have appointed advisers to assist in the out-licensing process of MED2002 and are encouraged by the high level of commercial interest from potential licensing partners."
This is good news from a licensing perspective.
We won't ever know if advisers have been appointed for the sale of MED2002 and Dermasys, - or indeed for the whole company, - but it would seem prudent even if no offers have yet been received.
Long term shareholders wouldn't want to be short changed after waiting this long.
Good news re starting the PK study in 40 healthy men, but in order to keep to time scale we are awaiting the RNS stating recruitment has ended, and therefore can estimate the end date for the PK study, and hence the earliest date Phase III could begin.
The market is waiting for the end of PK studies, because it is widely believed achieving this milestone might be the right time for offers to be received, so I expect sp volatility from speculators around then.
I hope the expected RNS is published by the end of this month, but as we know - time keeping is not an FUM strong point.
Well FUM has now reached 33.1p which is the territory of the 50% re-trace from the 45.5p high ( very common re-trace-level) and the 'bottom' previously suggested by ecologist.
This level should attract buyers, after all that's what the FIB re-tracement levels are designed to do, to pick out the points that traders 'think' the stock is attractive to buy again.
There is sill positive divergence in the hourly charts and the candles are starting to turn positive. These are technical pointers that we are now really close to a bottom for the re-trace. Corrective phases at this point in the bullish cycle usually last slightly longer than the previous correction of the same degree. The previous correction lasted 7 days.....this one is now in its 8th, so this ties in nicely as well.
Corrections of this nature are one of the hardest things to time in TA. Until the 'price itself' confirms that the re-trace is over, we have no way of knowing exactly when the next move up will start.
A breach of the falling down-trend line ( now at 36p) would be the first indication that we have seen the light at the end of this tunnel. At that point......the next technical target will become 'visible'.
I see what you're saying, PJ, but there was that "link" in the "first place" between Centrica's dividend yield and its SP, so there has been some "inter twining" of the 2 so to speak, no matter how flimsy.
But I certainly would never "chase a dividend". Definitely a different subject. For example, I saw the Carillion (with a great looking dividend) disaster a couple of years before it happened ........ wouldn't touch it with the proverbial bargepole. And indeed that's a classic example of news lagging the SP, but then again ........ as I say ....... some of us could foresee that news.
'Surely the SP "has to" have some kind of resemblance to the earnings/fundamentals of the company, otherwise we'd have absurd P/Es and dividend yields?'
Not really Tony no.
I had this conversation recently at the health club with a Centrica (British Gas) shareholder.
I was telling him of the likelihood that Centrica stock would ultimately fall to around 120p from 240p.
He originally dismissed the notion saying that wold mean the dividend yield would rise to a ridiculous level of around 10%......and he thought that would mean everyone would want a piece of it.
I told him that it's the SP that counts.........that calls the tune. If it fell that much the company would probably simply cut the dividend anyway.
It's no good chasing a dividend when your losing out of your capital.....it's a high risk strategy and everyone certainly wouldn't want a piece of it.
Centrica dropped to 134p........it's currently 'bouncing' but it is still likely to get down towards 120p......maybe lower.
You can use dividend (and maybe P/E) to assess how 'risky' your investment is........but it won't help you with SP.
Think back to the 'dot-com' crash. We had companies that were surging ahead on ridiculous 'valuations' of many 1000's x 'projected' earnings. They weren't making a cent.
A decade later, when they were profitable......the P/E ratios were very low.
SP's do what they do because they are driven by emotion.......not 'value'.
"It's a bit like 'P/E ratio' that investors try and pick out 'cheap' stocks with.......they don't actually mean anything as far as a stock is concerned. All stocks have their own price pattern and can't be 'compared' to any other in any meaningful way.
All smoke and mirrors."
I don't entirely agree with this, PJ. If the P/E and fundamentals didn't mean anything, and the SP "did it's own thing in isolation", then surely the likes of GSK (for example) could trade at a P/E of 1 with a ridiculously high dividend yield? Surely the SP "has to" have some kind of resemblance to the earnings/fundamentals of the company, otherwise we'd have absurd P/Es and dividend yields? Less so with FUM (so far) of course, which has no foundations as such to apply any kind of "reasonable" valuation.
Aberdeen, I looked at the pain relief on FUM's website, and they do appear to be more "committal" on impending "regional deals", but in comparison to MED it's very bland, infact the MED section on FUM's website has recently "upped the ante" ..........
Probabilistic analysis is what it is.............it states what is likely to 'happen' if key prices are breached. If they are not breached, a different outcome is expected. There is no certainty.
Short-term things change regularly.
You mis-understood this on the the other bb......and you still mis-understand it now.
I have already clarified my thoughts on crude oil for you.......I have expected a run upto around $65 (which is about met) for the past 3 months.....followed by a 'likely' big bear market.
I see no reason to continue our conversation Michu.
I do see value in you posting here and indeed did on Frr and hope you keep posting here.. you did get on a great roll of right calls on Frr for a good while and subsequently got on a roll of wrong calls on Frr for a while... and then stopped posting.
Your calls on Poo - and forex btw - offered on Frr board were, at best, poor imho.. more complex things and so charting not as helpful perhaps.. a stock such as FUM should be a good one for you to chart predict I expect/guess.
I do indeed have my own mechanisms of playing the game and I'm happy with them thanks.. they are certainly nowhere near infallible but , on average, I do well, thankfully.
Generally, it's impossible to be anywhere near correct at every turn and the only people I've ever taken issue with are those who find it difficult to ever be wrong.
'you predicted that WTI would get to around $35 sometime in second half of 2017'
As I thought I'd pointed out in my last post.
Just after I left the FRR bb ( late sept), it became obvious that WTI would extend it's short-term bounce higher ( just as FRR did). My target was $65 by year-end 2017/early 2018.
You weren't aware of this because I wasn't posting on the bb at the time. Does that make me wrong ?
If you think that short-term views can't be changed with stock prices then you are quite mistaken.
My current view on Crude Oil is and has been spot on for many months. The long-term view hasn't and won't change.
If you want to liken your 'understanding' of my views with certain posters on other bb's feel free.......but don't bother me with them. That bb lost a valuable resource because of ignorance........hopefully this bb won't do the same.
I know what you mean Tony. But 'priced-in' doesn't really mean anything to a stock........it's a man-made 'human' term that is used to try and 'explain' things that don't need explaining.
It's a bit like 'P/E ratio' that investors try and pick out 'cheap' stocks with.......they don't actually mean anything as far as a stock is concerned. All stocks have their own price pattern and can't be 'compared' to any other in any meaningful way.
All smoke and mirrors.
But what you say about CSD now 'appearing' un-important to stockholders does demonstrate really well what I was saying about PI's 'interpreting' outside events with reference to how the SP actually moves.
Remember at 94p........CSD was used to try and explain a 78% stock price crash down to 21p.........just because the SP was falling.
And yet now........whilst the SP is rising.......CSD seems totally irrelevant.
Neither view is correct........it's just human 'interpretation' after the event. They are looking at the SP for guidance about events.......even though it says absolutely nothing about events.
'and seemingly have superior returns to pure isolated charting. '
Not sure where you've got this from Nick...........it's totally opposite to any controlled study I've ever read.
'The news triggered the spike'
That's fine.......it doesn't matter.
Spikes and volatile movements which happen on the same day as 'news' is released are perfectly fine......as long as they agree with the technical drivers.
(stock overhangs from placings / warrants etc and looking at fundamentals are all useful tools. '
It depends what you are using them for Nick. For instance one might want to balance or re-allocate funds into different sectors of the market or take a stake in 'green issues' etc.
If you are thinking about the effect on a SP direction however........all of the above have been shown to have no predictive power ( except of course in hindsight).
I think if we actually talked about the same thing Nick.......we'd agree.
PJ, perchance your memory has failed you, you predicted that WTI would get to around $35 sometime in second half of 2017. In fairness, you were totally, utterly and astonishingly wrong on that one.
( there is a long audit trail on that on the Frr board and a bunch of people there who will happily remind you of that prediction.. indeed 'Hammers' is still quoting you over there on that prediction and more besides :-) )
Oilovlam, yes I agree that charts can give good entry and exit points. With small caps the spread can be a deterrent from aggressive short-term trading though. Full respect for PJ for the way he trades and his knowledge. If PJ looks on stockopedia he will see many listed tried and tested set ups aside or in addition to pure technical analysis. They all work over time and seemingly have superior returns to pure isolated charting.
PJ, no I would t buy DEMG after the rise but, for a duration this am , the stock was trading at below 1.2 p so an agile trader could have day traded and made 80% plus taking into account the spread.
The news triggered the spike although DEMG will need to raise cash so I expect it will go lower from here unless they sell the Company. Charts, assessing supply and demand (stock overhangs from placings / warrants etc and looking at fundamentals are all useful tools.
Lets agree to differ although I find your input interesting and helpful. This is my main source of income for the past 17 years so, whilst I am always open to learning, my approach of using a variety of tools as opposed to rigidly focusing on one, works well enough for me. Undoubtedly you have also found a repeatable means of making money from the market that suits you.
To be honest, PJ, I reckon CSD is "priced in" in that a launch won't make much difference (if any) to the SP (from a fundamentalist's viewpoint, if that makes sense) and the Market seems to have given up on CSD following the failures with Reckitts and Church & Dwight. And when I say "priced in", I mean it only accounts for a small part. CSD is no longer deemed to be a "big earner". Not big enough anyway to keep a bunch of shareholders happy raking in meaty dividends. My theory is based on FUM "binning CSD/or the smaller regional deals" as part of a bigger deal.
Anyhow, good to see you are now a "fellow FUM-ster", PJ. We will have to invite you to an initiation ceremony which involves a "spaceman's helmet" using a CSD condom. Only thing is, there are currently no CSD condoms in stock!
Finally, I notice you mentioned "giant tortoises", oil. Don't you mean "giant turtles"?
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