GAW Games Workshop, looks technically in a strong position to break through the down trend channel and go on to hit the last high very soon. Increased volume and a positive MACD Oscillator back this up.
<b><i>Games Workshop has delivered a very impressive H1 with EBIT of £38m matching last years full year. We are not changing our outlook for the current year, but the company is well on track to deliver on our FY forecast of £65m ahead of the important Christmas period.
It is encouraging that the growth has been seen in all regions and all channels, with H1 sales +54% to £109m. Importantly the sales trend has been maintained since the 40K launch in the summer. Although it is sensible to assume the current elevated sales trend does not continue, the increase in sales of starter sets bodes well for future periods.
The profit performance will have translated into a healthy cash position. The company will step up investment in the business by c£7m in order to expand capacity. Nonetheless there will still be significant excess capital to return to shareholders. We are currently forecasting a full year dividend of 120p (6% yield) and year end net cash of £20m. H1 profits will be announced on 9 January 2018.</i></b>
GAW GamesWorkshop... in the first six months of 2017/18 and an operating profit of c. £38 million for the period. Last year at same stage ..Preliminary estimates indicate an operating profit of c.£13 million for the period.
Thanks for the Q&A session in this article Richard. I have been keeping an eye on this company for some time and admired the ROCE but could never get myself to buy the shares as I couldn't believe they could continue to make so much money from what they do. If you want to know what made me re-assess and buy the shares about six months ago, it was the continuing stream of royalties which I guess must go straight to the bottom line. This also underlined to me the value being generated by the company. I noticed on the TV that computer gaming is now becoming a sport, complete with spectators (weird!). I also read some of the enthusiast boards about wargaming and it is clear that many adults are quite passionate about this and spend accordingly. As you implied in your article, you probably love or hate the management (no, I doubt that I could work there either) but my impression is that they are quite conservative and take a long term view in formulating strategy, which I like so I am happy to hold the shares and will probably retain them indefinitely assuming no fundamental change in the business.
"Egg on your face Richard?Egg?Yes, egg. A couple of years ago you laid into Games Workshop. You said either you were mad or Games Workshop was delusional. Yet in the year to May 2017 the company has increased revenue 21% at constant exchange rates ..."
may be I am getting tired
how does iii get divi under fundammentals as 3.2%
using last full year compared to closing price gives approx 6.4%
please advise for my future ref.....maybe I use wrong figures and need correcting
a fairly unique situation of a 100% UK manufacturer with 75% export sales, limited overseas cost base. Surprised Richard Beddard's article didn't mention this rather large factoid. Moreover we now have organic growth so no wander the dividend has been raised 25% y/y.
As a father of a son who is a GW hobbyist i have an insight into the business and the nature of its (UK) customer base. I agree its not for everyone in fact its very niche but it has a unique customer proposition (no direct competition) which is enjoyed and profitable in multiple large overseas markets.
I actually like the focus of the Chairman and Board on it shareholders and the refreshingly straightforward language around corporate governance. Frankly i don't give a toss whether there are women on the Board and not just because i have never seen a girl or woman play this game at least in our local shop. All i want is good, aligned management which i think is what we get with GAW.
As you say Richard you should have ignored your slightly wet side which seemed quite personally offended for some reason, seen more clearly the elephant in the room (£ devaluation) and backed your business analysis which obviously is in tune with the many attractions of GW. Must admit as a recent (post Brexit) addition to the shareholder register, i am not scarred like you by holding this during a couple of more difficult years. Its not too late though, as even 20% higher since your article its still looking cheap in terms of its multiple of equity FCF which is feeding strongly into dividend income. At a time when profit warnings are hammering over-priced mid cap me-too often correlated stocks what else could one ask for?
"It only takes half an hour to roll your-own algorithm for investment success - though implementing it might take a little longer.Common sense algorithms are better at making decisions in noisy environments - like the stockmarket - than expert ..."
"I've delayed writing this article after reading LSE:GAW:Games Workshop's annual report, but I still haven't calmed down. The act of typing is riling me up again.As an investor and as a journalist, I try to be objective. While objectivity isn't ..."
"Games Workshop is casting itself as a relentless profit making machine. Customers, staff, and investors who donât like it better get out of the way. On Tuesday, the day before Games Workshopâs annual general meeting, my twelve year old son burst ..."
Having held GAW for a few years, I've decided to get out now, following their latest Warhammer revamp. There's a lot on negative buzz amongst the hobbyists and more of my friends seem to be leaving GAW for other systems. Mantic seem to be doing well and a lot of the other minor players seem to me to be gaining support.
It's been a good ride and I'm out with a healthy profit overall (despite topping up at near £8!!), but there's other opportunities that look cheap to me at the moment, with more predictable dividend payments.
"Without shops, a high street retailer has no business. Without planes, an airline canât fly. Whether the company leases the assets or takes out a loan to buy them, the risks are similar, but the accounting can paint a very different picture. ..."
Yeah - not much to go on. First half year results were broadly similar to the previous year - significantly impacted by a strong pound. The pound has weakened against the dollar - which should be a good thing for US revenues, however the recent Euro devaluation will impact GW as Europe is their biggest region. I'm not expecting anything spectacular, but I would hope that the second half year results would exceed the first half year, given that it includes the Christmas boost.
Let's assume that EPS for the year exceeds 30p - which I think is a reasonable expectation and given most spare cash is returned to share holders as dividend, then I'm placing the anticipated yield for this share at about 6%. I think that makes this a buy at the 500p level.
Have been watching this stock since the last dip in Feb, since then price has again dropped though not to that level, and the dividend has been axed.. still a good buy? The new business model hasnt had much press and there hasnt been any real news on the divi - had the SP stayed aroun 800 with a 50p dividend then great,.. though I still think its a good buy at this price assuming it holds and the dividend returns.
"Fantasy wargaming company Games Workshop must tread the delicate line between generating a satisfying return for its shareholders and gouging its customers.Having run Games Workshop through the checklist, it still qualifies, albeit uncomfortably, ..."
"Two things are concerning about the rhetoric in Games Workshopâs annual report for the year ending June 2014. Tom Kirby, the longstanding guardian of the fantasy wargaming hobby is as florid and zealous as usual, but he also comes across a little ..."
"Tom Kirby, chairman and acting CEO of Games Workshop said:
"Games Workshop has had a really good year.
If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term survivability of a great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree."
Nice try.............but, no, I don't agree! Sorreeeeeeeeeeeee!
Ever wondered why some stocks drop on GOOD NEWS ? Well, maybe the market has factored in any positive news....or the market may have expected better!
Ban short selling by organized groups AND stricter controls on unjustified deramping!
We should bear in mind that most stocks are heavily traded on spikes, especially after a big retrace over many months. Investors are selling out at any chance they get, for fear of losing after waiting so long.
Ultimately, the sp drags on and on, or actually goes in reverse AND may take longer to achieve full potential(sp) as it is heavily traded off on the spikes.There is some evidence of shorters(traders) forming groups to deramp the sp down. They could easily be some of your 'regulars' on here ?
...What's going on ?
Many stocks have good fundamentals and bags of potential, yet they are going down, even on good news ........but i think something more sinister is going on, along with hundreds of other stocks?
Ever wondered why your investment goes down, even on GOOD NEWS ?
How the Big Players manipulate the markets and the sp !
IT is estimated that over 90% of AIM stocks are INFECTED by short-sellers !
Many highly popular stocks are going down even on GOOD NEWS !
# IF you were a short-seller, BLUFFING, (basically manipulating a shares' price) about a company's overvalued share price, you might not want to *draw attention to yourself since you could get accused of stock manipulation. So you would hope (OR PLAN FOR) others to get involved and to present SEEMINGLY GOOD REASONS to short the stock.
You would want to put AS MUCH FEAR INTO 'LONGS' as possible and would use high volume short trading as well as buying to drive the share price down as low as you can and as long as you can. You really want the longs to fold and to get out of the game. If you are consistently seeing sellers overwhelming buyers driving a share price down as a stock seems to be going up, I can assure you it's probably shorts' selling, since longs are totally motivated to sell their shares at the highest possible selling price. #
Davide Serra, adviser to the Govt on banking has approached the FCA to ask for an investigation into shorting attacks on stocks. He holds a 2% stake in Quindell ?
# No one hears 'whispers'...it's just another ruse to get pi's to buy or sell ?
Watch out for the very 'nice' posters that are 'sympathetic' but constantly use phrases like "sorry to say"... "going down, i'm afraid"...."Oh dear".... "told you so" ... "placing on its way, more dilution"...."News on its way"....."there must be a leak, it's a duster"..."been in this for years and still losing money"....."the BoD stinks"....."whispers from the City".....
.....IF they're about it's a cert they'll panic out 'long holders'...?
."whispers from the City"...."take-over rumours" ...."Someone knows something, they always do?"
...."News of a JV imminent !"
This is well trodden pure ramping, to get investors to BUY !
RUINOUS to genuine investors.
They may be able to buy in cheap BUT what's the good, if the stock never really recovers?
AND when they have got you all hooked on the 'lovely' new all-time LOW.....They'll SHORT IT AGAIN !
Yes you are missing something - GW does not have a 'regular' dividend policy, but only pay's out dividends when there is excess cash available. When profits are good and there are no investments that the company wants to make - then dividends can be excellent. On the other hand, if sales have not been so good - then there are no dividends.
The reason for the significant share price drop recently is that the most recent results were disappointing,
This time last year - there had been an 18p dividend on 9th January and there was a 24p dividend on the 16th April. This year so far - not a hint of a dividend. Of course - there might be a dividend announced in the next week or so. Who knows? On the other hand - there might not be a dividend for the foreseeable future. I wish I knew the answer.
I am a long term holder and I haven't sold - I think we're in a temporary slow down. (I like the models) I hold this, looking at GW through rose tinted glasses - having been buying from GW since the first shop was opened in Hammersmith. But to assume this is a 8.33% dividend yield - that's a mugs game.
Just made the mistake of thinking HSBA dividend is paid in gbp not usdollars, which would make it 8.3%. However at the current price of around £5 games workshop is running at 8.33% div yield, unless I'm missing something else?
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