I am quite happy with MM's playing games on this share as I have already made a 3% return on one of the top-up holdings I bought yesterday and this will no doubt be up to about 20% within the next few weeks - certainly better than sticking the money in a bank account.....
Hi Bin, glad to hear that you are making money with the rest of us. In contrast I never regarded this as a gamble. My favourite subjects remain history and statistics. Once I understood the strategy of the BOD and their attitude to dilution it was obvious that the cyclical nature of commodities meant that it was just a matter of time until prices would rise and the cash would flood in. History tells us that commodities have further to run especially since mines take time to bring on line and the likes of Glencore are in no hurry. GFM history tells us that the BOD do share buy backs, want to pay a dividend and run a tight ship. We also know that head grades have improved and that the mine is still only running a 2/3rds capacity. On top of this we have the potential license and the fact that it is probable that eventually this will be sold. These are the reasons why I am happy to hold and increase. Others may choose to profit take but my research says that this is the time where we can at last sit back and enjoy the ride - as long as we watch commodity prices.
"We have waited since 2012 to arrive here" ----With respect, I bought my first tranche of 50,000 at 19.75p in November 2008. I saw it then as a high risk punt for a variety of reasons . It has taken a long time to come good . I sold 130,000 in the recent run up . It is still not without risks. I will take the rest out if they go close to 200p.
I like games so I have set a limit buy in place for tomorrow am well under todays closing price. MMs have been playing this predictable game for a week now despite the fact that buys have out numbered sells on most days. Others may want to do the same. If MMs are playing games we may as well profits by it !
Well you guys have been busy. A massive shoot out earlier in the week leaves Sageman last man standing, will he whistle for his horse and ride off into the sun set or are his boots stuck in the mud becoming an easy target... Fear not CD rides into town on his Bentley stagecoach with some fresh entertainment and hopefully re-enforcement's. These mining towns are all the same...
Happy to be observing from a far off Indy (independent) reservation.
As Michael Winner use to say " Calm Down Darling "
Just ignore all the current going ons us LTH have seen it all before as Sageman posted Zinc prices are strong GFM are raking in the cash , IMO this is all about MM & short term investors both taking profits GFM is in the same posistion today as it was a week ago when the SP was about 1.32
What I didn't add in to my previous post is why this strategy works for MM'sand it is because many PI's put a stop loss on their shares and leave it over night. So it is like taking candy from a baby from a MM perspective. Drop SP 1st thing, collect some cheap shares due to automatic stop loss sales, sell them during the day at a profit. Repeat as often as PI's are stupid enough to fall for it!
Q What do you do if a share has had a good rise recently and you are short of stock? Answer = reduce the price early doors to get some hot money to sell out. Looking at trades over the last week the pattern has been the same most days but with buying volume normally exceeding selling. Whilst the MM's play their games in the real world Zinc continues to perform strongly and Roger keeps banking the cash. LOL
Well, I for one have taken the opportunity of this recent profit-taking price drop to top-up my holdings and bought another 2.5k out of spare dividends.
I agree with MWF's various comments and am optimistic for this share, whatever happens to the market generally. All of the fundamentals are right for a significant uplift, particularly if the long-awaited licence surfaces and particularly if the anticipated dividend is announced (even if relatively low initially)
." What few people understand is that being debt free with commodity prices at current levels is the beginning of the journey from speculative AIM stock to dividend paying cash cow." ----Almost certainly the case , which is why I retain some: note my use of " almost ".
Investment has been my only source of income for over 25 years.
Bin, with respect most posters here have been here several years with very low B/E levels. My core holding of over 150,000 shares has a B/E of less than 12p. I did lots of trading to achieve this. Other posters like CD have a B/E of 3.5p. Others are on a completely free ride. The optimism is based on factual information. We have waited since 2012 to arrive here having gone through the financing, the commodity slump and the mine expansion. We used that period to invest. We now wait to be properly rewarded with dividends, profits and the resultant sp levels which will be achieved as a consequence of being a fixed cost business, massively increased production and rising commodity prices. This really is like watching paint dry once you understand the variables involved and all LTH's on this board do. What few people understand is that being debt free with commodity prices at current levels is the beginning of the journey from speculative AIM stock to dividend paying cash cow.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic , as expressed ad nauseam on this board, but the only sure way to play this is to take some profit on the way up ; as someone said on ADVFN ---" keep scooping it out "
Used this little tree shake to pick up 49000 more shares for my pension. Zinc at multi year highs and rising. Roger creaming the curve and stashing cash and people taking some profits and causing a dip in the sp. What is not to like?!
Profit takers and newbie investors who don't know company only releases news every 6 months or so, got bored and panicked for the door when profit takers strike. If I hadn't just bought something else last week, I'd be becoming interested @115p
Sageman, to be honest my mind was made up around 2 weeks ago & so I am moving on but still holding Griffin. The news only yesterday from Bloomberg, stating via an Australian mining analyst that China had a very good year last year and that it will continue to do so this year AND buy more metals including zinc ! I think that the bulletin board has become a twitter board and at times the comments posted have no relevance to metals, Griffin, zinc or China, hence my leaving ! It is a pity I did not know you in real life as I have just changes my FA around 4 months ago Good luck and keep the faith Jovari
No one ever got poor taking a profit but I have no intention of selling yet. If commodities remain at these levels or even sell off 20 -30% GFM will still be very cash generative . I have said that I can see scenarios where the sp could be 50p or 10 times that figure. On that basis todays prices look modest . When we were last at this sp our production was a fraction of todays levels. I work within Financial services and am aware of AIM ISAs. The relevance is that if you have a managed fund you need to find companies with a decent market cap in order to trade. So the manager has the money and just needs stocks to buy. If you run an income fund you need dividend paying shares. It is also relevant that professional managers use investment committees that sometimes only add new holdings monthly or quarterly. To a large extent GFM have only recently come on to the radar of such funds with income funds watching but not yet engaging. This stock remains fairly illiquid and I know that MMs do not have plentiful supplies of stock. Each to their own but I do not see this price as tempting.
I did not look at your other posts, because the damage was done ! Anyway I have had enough of this board and am moving on to my banks stockbroker, where I will get the latest market info. Thank you Sageman & goodbye !
Jovari, I apologies to the other followers of this board but my final words on this tiresome subject. You stated that my second message had only just occurred It occurred almost 4 hours before you responded!
Your silence thereafter has been deafening but speaks volumes of your character.
Ok chaps lets drop this exchange/misunderstanding and get back to comments and views on current and future GFM issues. IMHO the price has held up well over the past week or so when profit taking could have been a negative. Hopefully we all understand the fundamentals and wait with bated breath the April announcements, or even better an RNS before then.
When I post like others, we do not state buy or sell, you have posted a red sell ! Are you shorting or just do not know! Most of us here want the share to go up in value , which is quite normal and you a post a sell ! Has it ever occurred to you that it may persuade some nervy investors to sell out, when they could remain and make a profit!
Just checked half year accounts and it is in dollars so other things being equal 50 cents = 34 pence eps - which would be conservative if volume increases and with current zinc price. I know we both have every confidence that 2018 is likely to be the year of the griffin !!
Sage. We are on the same page using different words and coming from different perspectives so let's move on. 34 mill in 5 months is 81 mill pa plus say some other surpluses so we could have 90 mill plus profit generated in 2018. That represents 50 ( cents or pence - not sure what currency you were in) per share so the total 2018 dividend regardless of when actually paid could be half of that ( with half retained). So ???? can we dream of 25 cents (19p) or even 25p total dividend over the next 15 months ???
MWF having an overdraft and making a profit are two completely separate matters and it is important to treat each year in isolation. The point being is that even if they had a zero bank balance they could pay a dividend , albeit that this BOD would not do so. Given the speed of debt repayment which was circa 34m in 5 months they should have 20-30m in the account come April . I do not think that a 3p dividend (cost 5.4m) would be a problem . Given that they would look to build the bank balance and retain the bulk of the cash it would make very little impact on their ability to pay either an interim dividend in August or a final in April 2019. As we all know the elephant in the room regarding profits is commodity prices.
The figures to be announced in April are for the year end Dec2017 and after the repayment of debt there will not be that much cash to pay what would be an annual dividend. I guess that the half year figures are more likely to produce an interim div followed by a final.
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