Nora - Ill take your bet - last year the prelims were not issued till 6 April. Agree given shareholders and market anticipation it may be a bit earlier this year but be surprised if it is next week. Actually I hope it is as I need to sell a few at £1.50 plus to pay for my 2 week summer cruise and drinks package !!!! I will sell the 7,700 I bought at £1.10 on the recent dip but will retain my main long term holding for even greater things - I hope.
"...He waits....that's what he does... and tick followed tock followed tick..."
Sums up lively GFM this week
haha, good weekend all. Betting next Thursday for Trading update
FWIW I think it is a case of 'Don't panic Mr . Mannering' for the next few weeks. As I have commented beforeit is well worth a revisit to the RNS of the prelims last April. That will give investors a good feel for where we were then in terms of volumes, commodity prices and debt levels to compare with where will be in less than a months time. World zinc stocks (and thus price) is an important factor for GFM but I would only start to worry if there were to be a sustained period of 'new' stock hitting the exchanges. I know MM manipulation of share pricesis less prevalent in these days of electronic trades but I for one will certainly not be making any disposal before hearing the full year results and the BoDs indication of future dividend policy. As always DYOR.
Looking at Kitco's graphs, it can be seen that that there was a peak in the price of Zn on 26 Feb, but warehouse stock levels were still dropping at that point in time. The additional stock entered w/h on 5 or 6 March - showing on the graph on 6th.
Some 78,950 tonnes were delivered into LME-approved warehouses in New Orleans on Monday March 5 the largest inflow since July 2013, increasing on-warrant stock levels by 94%.
And it is not just the LME which has seen stocks rising; Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc stocks rose 31% in the week to Friday March 3 because environmental restrictions have reduced demand from galvanizers.
Exchange stock levels were worryingly low, although people were aware there was lots of zinc sitting off exchange. Now the flow is changing and its slowly coming back on exchange, a trader said.
But we do not know how long this change will last. There could be more deliveries, I hear the total may be 100,000 tonnes so there is a little more to come, he added.
Total LME zinc stocks are now back over 200,000 tonnes for the first time since late last year. While SHFE stocks climbed back above 100,000 tonnes in February for the first time in eight months.
This move is clearly a guy trying to make a splash. Spreads have eased considerably, telling you metal is coming soon there could be additional deliveries, a second trader said.
If another 70,000 tonnes comes in then the whole curve will completely collapse, he added.
The cash/three-month spread has today swung back into contango, most recently trading at $0.75 per tonne contango from $6 per tonne backwardation at the close on Friday.
In February, the cash/three-month spread hit a high of $56 per tonne backwardation and was last in contango back in December 2017.
I dont think its a big surprise that there were merchants with quite concentrated positions and forming dominant positions according to LME data; that contributed to the tightening of the spreads and last week we saw spreads collapsing so its evident that something shifted in terms of the concentration of holdings, Vivienne Lloyd, senior analyst at Macquarie, said.
If the warrants are fee floated then it should now be in multiple hands it should reduce the potential that everyone holds it can deliver. So that makes it harder to be mass canceled, she added.
Yet one major warehouse operator believes the massive deliveries are not expected to stay on-warrant for more than two months because a large commodity house was delivering them onto LME sheds for better warehousing deals.
The warehousing source told Metal Bulletin all warrants will be canceled in two months time when negotiations on warehousing terms are complete.
Following the delivery, the LME three-month zinc price has dropped 2.5% so far the weakest of the base metals complex.
Flushing out off-exchange stocks?
Some industry participants think that when the initial panic calms, the delivery could be supportive of zinc prices.
If off-exchange stocks continue to fall then in the end, once the panic surrounding deliveries calms, it should be supportive for long-term prices. But that reaction takes a while to come to the forefront, a source said.
Traders said that the delivery could be pushing off-exchange zinc stocks lower, which may tighten the market.
I agree that it could be flushing out the off-exchange spares
Zinc is down 8% from multi year highs last month now and everyone's suddenly a bit cautious with Trump going off on one regarding steel tariffs (note China only supplies 3% of US steel imports) Anyway re Zinc stock rise - apparently some Zinc traders got tired of Zinc being in backwardation (spot price higher than forward price) and didn't want to bear the cost of their hedges any longer so instead they physically delivered Zinc into a LME warehouse in New Orleans. Asian and European LME warehouses still bone-dry of zinc. A persistent move below $3000 for zinc and I'll change my spots but for now a modest correction, pause for breath etc. Roll on the results. GLTA
Sage. Shhhhhhhhh we don't want the whole world to know just yet. Another big market wide drop and I might be able to get a few more at£1.10 like a few weeks ago. GFM future totally disconnected from international stock markets but reacted with the old sheep mentality.
I Just spent about an hour, doing a nice reply and trying to explain something about China and the environment in which our bod has to operate, but my finger caught wrong part of phone and lost it. Enough!
Except to say that I wasn't attributing any of my previous comments to this bb.
Wish all of you, all the best with this investment, and thank the bod, who I have no criticism for, and who I know read or at least, used to read on here.
Firstly and most impotantly it is great to learn that you are still alive & kicking it is not for me to tell you how & what to do on the various BB , however I have ( apart from the very occasional nutter ) found the GFM BB to be fun & informative also I have never engaged with these posters life is far to short.
Thank you for your missive very very interesting you sould be immensly proud of your achievments during the twilight of your life , IF ! the GFM postes ever have the chance to meet up it would be wonderul to meet you in person.
I wish you ( and all other GFM posters ) good health & happiness , if by any chance we all make a few bob out of GFM that would be the icing on the cake
Kind Regards CD
Philip. I hope the relaxation and peace you described after your long trip has helped your karma. please don't let the few posters who are rude or personal prevent you from sharing your thoughts with the rest of us on this board.
Thanks for comments.
After I submitted my last post I went for a walk. Firstly through the university where I used to be (just across the Dragon River from where I live), and on entering I received a salute and a handshake from the guard on the gate. Hard to believe an elderly guy would get such respect in the West! Walked across the campus where there seemed to be many visitors (students stillaway on Chinese Spring Festival holiday), and past the peach orchard where many people were taking photos of the blossoms - not just peach blossom. Through the back gate of the university to a small park, which has a small mountain as the main characteristic. Walked past the empty fishpond and the children's amusement rides and headed for a bit of therapy climbing (walking) up the mountain, so good to hear the spring birdsong on the mountain, but after months of living in a small hotel room in the UK, modest hotel but still a costly way to live, and the lack of activity associated with the cold, often wet miserable winter that CD so loves, I found it really hard work compared with a few months ago. Hips and back aching now, but worth it.
Re. my previous comments. Some here might know that I was a very mature student in the UK, from '97- 2000 when I graduated and went to China. At university, apart from joining the Fell Walkers Society, for whom I occasionally drove the mini-bus, I also drove the mini-bus for the International Society, and had friends there, probably the only Brit socialising. I once drove 3 foreign students (Ethiopian, Indian, Pakistani) in my own car, at my own expense to Mount Snowdon for a day. I was the only non-Muslim invited by the Muslims to party in their designated room for meetings etc. Before going to uni, I did 4 years voluntary unpaid tutoring on ESOL (English for Speakers of Other Languages) at a
local college of further education, and I have been labelled as racist on these bbs. However I am just as concerned at abuse of others on here (iii).
My disillusionment is however as much with the rest of 'Western society' mainly US and Europe for their arrogance in the way they treat the rest of the world, expecting everyone to copy their 'perfect' ways and coercement with either guns (US) or economics (US and Europe). E.g. Countries of Africa have tariffs slapped on their exports, then they are sometimes given grants and loans and expected to be grateful. Also with big charities, how much gets to the real people in need, after the creaming off of salaries andexpenses in the giving country.
In the EU, why isn't there a policy to prioritise the vast numbers of unemployed youth, especially in the S. European countries. It seems they just don't care.
Most of the troubles in the world are caused by Western policies, both historic and current, boundaries created and fought over where none previously existed. It is time for politicians AND western media, to recognise value in other cultures and the rest of the world. before the rest of the world drives them into significantly less importance. E.g. Many countries in Africa are developing rapidly, hand in hand with China who are helping with the infrastructure now recognised as necessary for that growth and development plus many African students now studying in Chinese universities.
PR -sorry for the ramble - didn't intend to go on so long
from my Chinese smartphone.
I think many of us can understand your disillusionment with some BBs although I do think that the GFM one is far better behaved than most. I too only engage on a certain level and with folk who, whatever their view, are able to do so politely, informatively and with respect for others.
Although I probably view anything to do with GFM with excitement and rose tinted specs, because of its positive performance, I would also suggest that the general contribution of people on this BB is helpful and has helped me learn what makes for a good investment. It might only be amateur stuff (from me) but I appreciate it.
I agree that we COULD double from here. But it would also be prudent to top slice at some point. I have two stages in mind - nothing technical, just a plan where to lock in profits. We're not there yet!
Guitarsolo - watching the stocks.....still falling nicely. 100kt on LMW by Easter would be nice!
I noted one or two comments about my absence from these boards, and felt touched at the concern expressed, so thanks for the sentiments. However I have become disillusioned with them in general, and find little value in spending time, especially on some bbs where they are flooded with intolerance for others views and associated abuse.
So just to let you know that I am OK, and arrived back in China earlier this week after another spell in the UK, where I have spent the majority of my time during the last 12 months. The doctors/consultants have decided that there is little wrong with my heart after a perfusion scan that they decided produced a red herring, when considering the results of an angiogram and a 24 ECG mobile test. I will say that my experience of the NHS recently, has been far better than a number of previous occasions. Anyway, I can't be that bad having just dragged a 22kg suitcase and 15 kg backpack halfway across the world, but they still haven't found out what makes me collapse on occasion.
Well done to all LTHs on here, and seeing what some others are saying, I would point to my post on 6th October where I talked about topslicing at 2quid, and earlier posts mentioning a similar target. Being generally a cautious sort of fellow though, I would say it is not guaranteed - keep your eyes open for new production hitting the market. It didn't take GFM too long to restart after being mothballed, so eg. Glencore could be pretty quick. However would still like to see GFM double from here.
Whilst the results are not due until April GFM will by now be fully aware of them internally. The first half year ended 30/6/17 and they did a trading statement in July. I understand that Roger may not want to comment prior to the Chinese New Year but historically GFM have released some news in February before. What is very clear is that a debt free GFM is stashing cash at record levels , even without the license. The question is how will they spend it? Share buy backs, dividends. Also what is the current production level? Personally I would ramp up production and sell as much as I can, I suspect they did this to repay the debt so quickly. An RNS would remove the need for guesswork. Just loving this share. I told everyone that 2018 is the year of the Griffin hopefully there are now some believers.
Hi CD. Not 100% sure and cannot prove but I do remember an intraday 'buy' high of 137 a few weeks ago ( before the fall back to £1.10 when I bought more) as I phoned a friend to tell him in case he wanted to sell. It is possible because the market makers did make large spreads of 3 and 4 p to deter buyers as they wanted shares to fill orders I guess. At the end of the day I guess It's all immaterial as it's the future price we are all interested in lol. On the discussion about earnings when I did a quick calculation using known production levels and increased commodity prices with no debt I came to a figure of about 28 p per share for the full year 2018. They will have the first quarters figures in April but not sure they will be prepared to comment until the interim s in July. Whatever the actual figure it can only be either good, very good or exceptional news for shareholders. My 45,000 odd shares seem quite insignificant compared to your holding but having been in with some still left at original 3p price I suppose I mustn't complain lol.
OK, let's take the median of Sage's figures as a very general break even point at $1550 (half way between $1300 and $1800!):
We know that the average price of zinc in H1 2017 was $2690. So that means that $1140 price over production costs created EPS of 8.85cps.
H2 2017 average price was $3100. Assuming all other things equal (!) that should bring us to 12.03 cents per share for H2. (Working: 3100-1550= 1550......1550/1140=1.35..... 1.35x8.85=12.03 cents).
So there we have it.....about 21 cents per share for the year......! Didn't someone just say that!?
Guitarsolo putting the abacus away
PS. That doesn't take into account the production of lead, silver, gold etc..... nor the effect of the reducing and then disappearing interest on the debt..... nor the slight reduction in the number of shares in issue.......nor the very wide estimate for the break even point.....nor pretty much a lot that matters! But it was fun to do it!
PPS. The same calculation gives us EPS of over 30c per share if the price stays at $3500 for 2018. Yippppppeeeeeeee!
Cd that $800 figure is very historic. In a more recent interview I picked up that B/E was $1300 - $1800 depending on the price of gold and other commodities. We are currently $3590. We were below $3000 at the start of July 2017.
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