Galliford's SP is holding up surpisingly well, considering it went xd today! There is surely SOMETHING going on, that we dont know about. I would tick 'Hold' if only IIII hadn't wrecked the layout making the button hidden behind the menu line - !diots?
I have 25 shares in an isa. And another 'portfolio' of about the same number that I am just keeping an eye on. That's almost too much to keep tabs on. I also have trouble disposing of the dogs. Hence the is a lot of red in my current holding, but since I have sold a number of successes, it looks worse than it really is.
The annoying thing is that the ones I have an eye on always seem to do better than my actual holding. I too have been investing for about 40 years, but still get it wrong often. My bottom line is good profit, but it could have always been much better.
Apparently the human mind hurts twice as much at a loss compared to the equivalent gain. For example, you have to profit £10,0000 to counter the sadness of losing £5,000. This is well illustrated by the behavior of contestants on the show "Deal or no deal" It is ironic that it is reported that Noel Edmunds was suicidal after massive losses and he was in the hands HBOS! That is definately attaching too much importance to money.
I sympathise. I have a small handful of shares that are worth very little in total and I hold them in a portfolio labelled 'junk'. Not worth the selling fees and all others are held in isa so no CGT offset benefit to be gained on the losses.
tommy talent, you have misunderstood me. I have 43 share holdings that are worth MORE than £1,000 each (so obviously a minimum of £43K, very bad form if I gave any more detail). I have shares in three companies (EXI, GKP and AGQ) that the holding I have are each worth £913, £36 and £4. I should sell EXI shares and give to charity GKP and AGQ so I can forget about them and move on.
wheebz, "Crikey 43 holdings. Ever thought you may be too diversified?!!"
Yes. I am a bit of a hoarder, never intended to have that many but over the 41 years since my first share purchase, number of holdings has crept up. I used to have trouble selling at a loss. Got over that in the last 10 years or so but have a legacy of shares like Tullow Oil showing a loss now of 65.8% on average purchase price (in an ISA) that I cannot bear to realise the eye watering loss on. However in my spread sheet of trades if I select EPIC "TLW", accounts "ALL", I note overall I am showing a modest profit with my TLW trades (this ignores dividends, which in the case of TLW are negligible anyway).
In fact I have 46 liquid share holdings plus an Octopus VCT and a few miss sold worthless unlisted shares (for which the FSCS have fully compensated me for). Three of the listed share holdings I have are worth so little (i.e. <£1,000) that I ignore them, e.g. my AGQ shares show a huge loss and sadly for me, now worth only £3.80 so no sense in me spending £11.50 on commission to sell them!! In the good old days when I had the problem of CGT I could use losses to eliminate CGT but now such gains harder to come by and anyway majority of my shares now in an ISA wrapper so CGT no longer an issue.
You win some you lose some. As a pensioner I am now more risk adverse so very unlikely to make mistake of getting bitten by dogs like AGQ again, e.g. I sold out of Carillion in Dec 2015 at 303.28p and overall only made a small loss, unlike a friend of mine who ignored stop loss trigger and has now learnt the hard way that some shares never recover!
I read that as Rhigos has 43 different shares in his portfolio (quite a lot) that are each valued over £1000.(presumably there are also some tiddlers where his holding is worth less than £1000). The value of his Galliford shares makes up 2.5% of his total portfolio.
Am I right?
No problem, I'm in for the long-haul, when I sell it with be for a decent profit, a strong believe. Currently GFRD is only 2.5% the value of my portfolio and 14th largest out of 43 shareholdings worth over £1K.
A bid in offing would certainly explain SP rise also a short squeeze when stop loss limits reached by those shorting. Bid (sell) price at 15:12, 1060p getting on for 10% above Tue closing SP.
I think my BUY opinion that I posted around noon on Monday was spot on. Since then SP has risen 9.4%. A lot of investor would think this a satisfactory return after a year! Me trumpet blowing and patting self on the back :-)
My top up purchase on 6/02/18 now showing a profit of 51.5p a share, though on my overall average purchase price still showing a paper loss of a little over 10%.
There has been some speculation regarding a bid for the business and this may be expedited by the low share price. This is a fundamentally strong business and so expect to see further SP movement towards £12-14.
On 9th. March WorldQuant LLC increased its short posiyion to .71%
The sp was c.850/870p. then.
SP now 995p.
It is not all one-way traffic here.
I continue to hold(and hope)
If the brokers estimates of target prices are remotely correct
then merger/bid activity cannot be ruled out?
Thanks Rhigos - I was using mobile so copied and pasted your link into browser and it worked that way.
Agree its hard to work out whats causing the increase in SP. Its just goes to show that markets are often manipulated by those with access to knowledge that a standard investor doesnt. Always feels like the dice are loaded.
Sorry wheebz to waste your time, I tend to agree with you. I use Chrome and was able to block it from sending me messages. The first time I skimmed through it I thought it made some sort of sense and was intrigued by item title " Unusual Activity Spotted in Galliford TRY Plc (GFRD.L) as Shares Move 9.35%". Changed my mind after reading more closely, but had already posted my message.
I think sudden rise today, closing 11.53% above Friday's close, down to speculators, probably hedge funds, anticipating a quick profit from a generously discounted right issue. Perhaps even trying to drive up SP to improve profit or short it for all I know. Stinks of market manipulation either way. In the long run it is quality of company that counts and GFRD is a high quality company IMO.
Regarding accessing links from discussion boards on ii if on mouse you left button double click on link (not by editors) ii will site always stop you opening them, trick is to right click and use option to open in a new tab or open in a new window.
I managed to copy and paste your link and read the article. Im afraid it provides absolutely no value or insight at all. Im not quite sure what conclusion you could draw from it. Seems like poor content or click bait.
Eagerbeaver66 "I would have thought it's rather difficult to make a meaningful assessment of GFRD KPIs, while the rights issue is imminent and outstanding, since those figures could easily change by +/- 20% "
I do not disagree but a holistic view of figures along with historic knowledge of company makes me confident in GFRD's bright future. I did put in brackets after gearing figure that this would fall after right issue, that was my comment not part of SharePad data. IMO investing in GFRD now will result in CG and juicy dividends for an investor. Talking years not months. As always of course DYOR.
Rhigos, I would have thought it's rather difficult to make a meaningful assessment of GFRD KPIs, while the rights issue is imminent and outstanding, since those figures could easily change by +/- 20% overnight with the dilution. - Having said that, the figures have ratios changed by about 10% in the last few hours anyway!
From SharePad: (fc=forecast)
Broker Consensus: Outperform, target price +38.9%
Valuation: fc PE 5.2 (3yr avg 9.2), Price/NAV 1.3 (3 yr avg 1.9), Price / FCF 6.7 (3yr avg 24.4), EBIT yield 21.6% (3yr avg 12.7%)
FORECAST GROWTH %: Turnover 6.6%, EBIT 13.9%, Pre-tax 18.8%, Norm EPS 4.1%
Above growth forecasts apart from Pre-tax all down on 3 year averages.
SAFETY: Int cover 7.3, Gearing 132% (rights issue should fix), FCF conv 80.5% (V good), Piotroski 4 (average).
Dividends: fc Yield 10.2% (1st Quartile), fc Div cover 1.9 (3 yr avg 1.6), fc Growth -6.5%, Yrs growth 8.
Quality: Capital t/o 1.9 (3yr avg 2.4), ROE 23.0% (3yr avg 16.7%), ROCE 11.2% (3yr avg 13.7%), CROCI 8.5% (3yr avg 6.5%).
Valuation fundamentals in particular suggest to me that GFRD is undervalued. Of course all forecasts are just that and things might not turn out the way that professional analysts expect. My view is that all the news about Carillion has had such a negative influence on the sector that GFRD is now a bargain particularly as it sits in two sectors and house building has certainly not gone out of fashion!
The analysis by Phil ( dont you want me baby ) Oakley is a really clear and well explained piece. It seems both logical and pragmatic. Probably the most useful post of encountered on iii in many years. Certainly compared with the juvenile drivel Ive come to expect on the LLO discussion board. Thanks for sharing 10/10.
Decent article by Phil Oakley on the current value and upcoming rights issue. Doesn't explain the recent falls since it was published on Wednesday but these days the market seems to over react to everything.
Not so sure about the cold weather argument. All the other house builders are showing blue this am.
I am still trying to research GFRD and get my mind around what is happening generally but the issues are with their construction division. Morrison.
A good detailed explanation posted on ADVFN message #4320 by 'Callahan'.
Carillion was the UKs second largest construction company. One might have expected its demise to have a positive effect on the share prices of its peers, by making the tendering environment less competitive. However, the share prices of other construction and outsourcing companies fell. For some, like Galliford Try, there was a direct Carillion-related reason for the weaknesses of their shares. Without Carillion, Galliford Try and Balfour Beatty will have to complete the loss-making Aberdeen West ring road project on their own. However, these relatively short-term contracts aside, the environment may improve for the construction companies. During the crisis of 2007-9, companies were happy to take on large multi-year government contracts at fixed prices, in order to keep their staff employed and the money coming in. Many of these contracts went wrong. In the years after 2009, a labour shortage developed in the construction industry. In order to deliver their projects, companies had to pay skilled workers far more than theyd budgeted, but couldnt pass the extra costs on. However, the surviving companies are telling us that they are no longer interested in bidding for these large multi-year fixed-price contracts, where the margins on offer simply dont reflect the level of risk involved. They are looking for cost-plus contracts, where the profit margin is fixed, rather than the all-in price.
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