"""Analysts at Morgan Stanley took a look at pub group Greene King on Friday, saying the firm's decision to support its dividend meant it was time to "Greene light" an upgrade for the brewer and landlord's shares.
Morgan Stanley upgraded to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight' and upped its price target to 640p from 610p."""
Ah canna tek any mehr cap'n,,,in a Scottish dialect..
So I doubled up today....my avg. SP now £5.83.
I'm bu*****d if I can suss the SP at all - so shorters have an impact...OK...SP down loads more than the 8% !!
Is UK going to hell in a handbasket ?
Me thinks not... Brexit will be as soft as a warm marshmallows squishy bits IMHO.
Was there a profit warning I missed ? EPS still covers divi right ?
OS Hen and Abbot still tasted about the same last time I quaffed.
I'm either a numpty or a genius....will confirm ~ April/May 2019..
Disappointing and frustrating market and shame on the shorters..I originally bought these around 2010 at about 430p,so nearly the same price after 8 odd years......at least I've been collecting the divis and vouchers along the way too but I also topped up a lot higher up than this. No crystallising losses for me though, holding on grimly for next few years!
I see the % on loan is significantly higher for many companies than the short positions reported in short-tracker, a few examples
OCADO GROUP ORD 25.73
SKY PLC ORD 50P 23.72
DEBENHAMS ORD 21.35
BOOKER GRP PLC 1P 20.14
Maybe as you suggest this reflects short positions of less than 0.5% which are not reportable, but as this site seems to accesses the loans data through through crest it picks up all loans. I don't know if there is any other reason to loan out a stock other than for selling short?
I see a couple are reported as over 100%, and ARRIS INTL COM CDI 715.98 !
That could be an error but I guess in theory the shares could in theory be loaned sold short and the buyer then loans the stock on - but seems pretty extreme!
It looks like it could be very useful, not really worked out what for, but maybe comparing a newly released data set with the previous month would flag up any companies with big change in stocks on loan, not so easy to do on Short-tracker which anyway seems to be only part of the picture.
Why so short on GNK?- presumably they think it will decline further, recent results were poor, many concerns like economy faltering, retail spending fall, input costs rising, quality issues, business rate increases, minimum wage impacts etc. That's either in the price or there is further to fall, take your pick
The short positions have been growing steadily over the last 12 months from 0.51% to 7.8% (that only includes positions of 0.5% or more so total could be higher), that is getting to a worrying level. (Link below)
That said in 2014/15 there was an even more rapid run up in short positions to over 13% which were closed very rapidly in June 15 after the Spirit deal was announced. The SP went on to make new high of 950p in late 15, since when the SP has been in consistent decline. The interesting question is whether the shorters made a mistake to take out shorts in 2014/15 (which might give some encouragement to holders of long positions looking at the current short positions) or was the mistake to close them?
For either perspective it would seem that the spirit acquisition has not given GNK the boost which it seems was expected by long and short holders.
I only invest long, never shorts, same with drinks, too easy to get hammered.
Article in S Times points out a large number of short positions on GNK but of more interest is (maybe common knowledge) the shorttracker website where you can see exactly what shares are most shorted. New to me anyway, quite interesting
"GNKs & Marstons who perhaps need to up their game.We have a huge choice now."
I can't help but think that the purchase of the Spirit pub chain is playing a part and management have taken the eye off the ball with the overall estate and running of the business. Perhaps integrating the business is weighing down on the financials because the share price has never recovered since the purchase.
susanne, this should make you giggle, I knocked this out during my coffee break :-
""Hello Dawn, I'd like to have another attempt at addressing this from a shareholders perspective and make an attempt to ensure that all shareholders who request it, should be given the opportunity to take part in shareholder benefits. Clearly we reached an impasse back in October and nothing happened to address the fact that as a pooled investment shareholder it was difficult to get access to the benefits that other individual (non pooled) shareholders enjoy.
My request goes beyond a personal want of the benefits, as I see it as a potentially good boost to Greene King, that without being objectionable in any way, is struggling in this current climate and your share price has suffered enormously, having fallen from almost £10 back in 2015-16 to £5.26 as I type.
So what are my main points :-
1. Provide a boost to sales -- what better way to do this than ensuring that ALL of your shareholders are in your pubs and restaurants as often as possible. By doing this, what better advocate of the business could you possibly have sitting at the tables and stood at the bars talking about Greene King, as well as the football or politics?
2. Increase the image of the pub by having committed customers talking to other customers. Can you find a more committed customer than he/her who has been prepared to pledge his hard earned cash to owning a piece of the Greene King company?
3. Market it and sell the idea -- It should/could be a promotional aspect in your pubs, maybe even plastered over the bar - "Become a Greene King Shareholder and receive these benefits" -- Maybe be the first to make Greene King one big club -- investment regulations permitting.
4. For a small additional cost, get the message out to every shareholder, via the investment platforms, to actively encourage them to participate -- Don't just suffer it as an inconvenience - get on top of it as a major marketing program.
5. Reduce the costs -- why mail out booklets when you can do it all electronically -- have the shareholder access the vouchers online and print them -- It's a really easy and low cost approach.
6. The largest investment forum in the UK is iii -- they have the most established shareholder forum for FTSE100, 250 and AIM stocks. I'm personally an active member and would be happy to promote the message for free on the Greene King discussion board.
That's it -- I'd take on the role of your marketing manager, but sadly I don't have the time -- I'll have even less when you grant me the assurance that this is a program you'll take seriously and I'll be a spending participant in this unique program that'll be the envy of the pub/restaurant businesses across the UK.
Kind Regards XXX (a devoted shareholder and could be more so if you take this on) -
At least the comment "sustainable dividends" at the end signals that the present payment level is likely to be maintained.
It seems to be a mixed bag with pub companies at the moment.Some seem to be doing well particularly premium operators like Young & Co;but also Wetherspoons which have an attractive offer and the GNKs & Marstons who perhaps need to up their game.We have a huge choice now.
Overall however I feel that spending at pubs is holding up much better than retail spending generally;there seems where a choice is being made to be a swing towards spending money "going out" rather than buying more "things".
I guess they are stuck in the sentiment trap like all the other pub/restaurant/general retailers -- no one seems that interested in investing in them.
GNK seems still pretty cheap to me, but sadly it's still cheaper than the price I paid for it grrr !!
In the trading statement, realistically you can argue the result is below inflation, so not that good.
Be interesting to see if they made a return on the 40 pubs they sold, but if they were loss making and in bad areas then disposing of them probably made sense anyhow.
I recently wrote to them to encourage all shareholders to participate, by not being stupid and allowing the pooled investment vehicles to block access to incentive vouchers. My argument, copied CEO, Chairman and CFO, was that the best people to have in your pub is a positive shareholder promoting the cause.
Let's see if I get a response -- I indicated they should make it a promotional program plastered across the bar and to do the vouchers online to make it less administative and lower cost and hitting a wider number of ahreholders.
"""Trading statement for the 37 weeks to 14th January 2018
We traded well over the Christmas period with Pub Company LFL (like-for-like) sales growth of 1.6% for the two weeks covering Christmas and New Year's Eve, in line with the market and against a strong period last year. Excluding the snow impact, LFL sales would have been up 3.4%. We achieved another record breaking Christmas Day in Pub Company with sales of £7.6m, up 2.6% on last year, and 154k meals sold.
Either side of the two Christmas weeks sales were slower, reflecting the tough underlying trading environment and additional snow impact.
Pub Company LFL sales for the first 37 weeks of the year were -1.4%. Drink and room LFL sales were ahead of last year while food LFL sales remained behind last year.
Pub Partners LFL net profit for the first 36 weeks of the year was up 0.2% while Brewing & Brands own-brewed volume was -0.9% for the first 37 weeks, against a weak ale market down 3.0%*.
We remain on track to deliver targeted cost savings of £40-45m this year and our brand optimisation programme continues to deliver attractive returns of 25%. Both our new build and disposal programmes are also on track with six new sites opened and 40 disposals completed in the year-to-date.
Our additional investment to enhance the customer experience, including being more competitive on price, having more team members available at key trading times and strengthening local marketing activity, will help to improve our competitiveness and relative trading performance.
Greene King has industry-leading brands, a strong and flexible balance sheet, and a sustainable dividend, leaving us well placed given the challenging market conditions.
Well, can't see anything in the trading update to lift the share price. Impression I get is GNK is running to stand still. Let's hope the dividend is secure as I see this as an income stock now. Still heavily down but will sit tight.
an analyst is only one overpaid individual with only one opinion = not always right, but can be very wrong - watch their long term track record closely, check their knowledge of the industry/sector covered, before following them over the cliff !!
On a 1 year view, the chart shows that GNK has broken through its 50 day ma and so far stayed above it with the 50 ma itself having at last turned positive. That would indicate a Buy signal in about 75% of cases. However the previous time that happened was last March, and in that case it was a weak signal and it broke down within 2 months.
The signal looks more convincing this time, with the 50 day ma having fallen so far behind its 200 day ma. Provided the sp doesn't fall back sharply below its 50 day ma from here (a dead cat bounce), it seems that a sustained rally is the likely occurrence.
Shares in Greene King were also higher, despite a downgrade out of JP Morgan to 'underweight' and downwards price target revision from 650p to 500p.
In a research note covering the year ahead, JP Morgan described the company as an "underperforming pub estate with severe cost headwinds."
Yes interesting move in GNK. Comparing with MARS which had a big jump up after better than expected results relative to poor GNK numbers. (Chart below may or may not show comparison, I never know with ii BB!). Maybe there is some truth in the rumours of a bid or whatever, but I don't invest purely in the hope of a bid, if it comes along and price is right fine but the business needs to justify price on fundamentals.
JPM does not show up in short-tracker for GNK, which shows 6.7% shorts. Marshall Wace LLP, Blackrock and others have been building short positions throughout 2017 and been proved very right. If there is a big jump in shorts in response to the SP rise I would take that as a worrying sign.
That said, even with poor GNK performance, using forecasts for 2018/19 and assuming zero or slight negative growth (-1%) after that, I get a valuation of over 600p on a DCF basis, but the same analysis for MARS (~150 Vs 113p) suggests it is much more undervalued, that is where I have been adding lately, GNK I will aim to reduce.
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