"a stronger performance from Genus PIC and Genus Asia."
I'm hoping that the growth in the pig biznay augurs well for my Devro shares! The beef side didn't look that great but these things go in cycles, so I'm happy to continue to hold GNS despite its quite demanding ratios. The step up in R&D seems eminently sensible.
Update from N+1 Singer on today's update, from Research Tree:
"Genus FY results are in line with expectations, with the expected YoY weakness in Genus ABS offset by a stronger performance from Genus PIC and Genus Asia. New guidance for 2017 has been issued, with an expected increase in R&D expenditure projected to result in broadly flat earnings YoY in constant currency. We retain our recent Sell recommendation on valuation grounds."
"The upfront payments, future royalties and damages payable by Genus to ST, as determined by the Wisconsin jury, are in our view relatively modest. Importantly, following the earlier verdict that ST had wilfully maintained monopoly power, Genus is seeking an injunction to allow a termination of the 2012 agreement between the parties and provide relief from its restrictive provisions." - Singers
"We view the damages award as fairly light given previous settlements in this sector and although GNS will be required to pay an ongoing royalty, the good news is that the company will be free to commercialise its own ... processing technology. This will likely result in an operating cost saving of c£5m, minus the royalties paid to ST." - VSA Capital
"I can't see how the latest verdict can be very expensive for Genus."
Today's RNS looks as if, notwithstanding my lack of expertise in the recondite world of bull se men, the cost to Genus will be peanuts, suggesting that Mr Market did indeed massively overreact to the initial jury verdict.
In addition, assuming Genus exercise the right (which they are seeking and may or may not get) to give 90 days notice to terminate the agreement with Induran, it suggests that Genus don't need these American monopolist monkeys and can tell 'em to go fork 'emselves with their own technology.
I know nothing about GSS technology but I can't see how the latest verdict can be very expensive for Genus. They won a jury verdict that Inguran had exercised a monopoly since 2012. If this is the case it is hard to see how Inguran can prove much in the way of damages for the breach of confidentiality that Genus made.
One hopes that, on reflection, Mr Market will see the latest verdict in less stark terms.
Nonetheless one never knows with the US courts ... ever since BP's Macondo clusterfuck it has been clear that the US legal system's main goal in life is to ream Blighty companies from ahole to breakfast. Talking of breakfast ....
Hmmmm. With hindsight, that urging of yours was never gonnae get a result! I'm quite surprised that Mr Market was so underwhelmed. I guess it's because it'll take 5 years or so before them disease-free porkers are strutting their stuff out in their arks.
I'm quite surprised that Genus was down slightly today as the results were excellent. Double digit increase in operating profit, chunky rise in the (well covered) dividend. What's not to like?
OK, Asia and Russia were a bit weak and Karim was slightly downbeat about next year but, all in all, I'm entirely happy with my stake in this excellent puppy, which is number 8 in my Top of the Pops at 3.7% of my shrunken wad, sandwiched between Diageo and Glaxo.
I like (and hold) Treatt, Renishaw, Halma, Diageo, Unilever, Fuller Smith & Turner, and about 25 other shares. You'll see my maunderings on all those boards.
I'm genuinely in two minds about Sirius Minerals. I'd like the project to work but I feel that the Ockers have greatly underestimated the costs, and I intuitively feel that a damn gr8 tunnel under a national park is never gonnae generate anything in the way of what really counts, namely
just sorry it took exactly 1 month lol ....ehm ehm . Pretty much 'bang' on with the timing I had expected too.
Not a bad trade at all .
Original post on the 24th of Feb . ;-))
Obviously I won't be right the whole time nobody is . But i am decent enough and the posts on iii hopefully will back that up . I don't have an issue though with LG on the contrary , she makes a lot of calls so some will go wrong , I suspect she'll have tight stop losses or timeframes that may be different to others. The shame is that she doesn't explain her targets , timings etc. Other that here ( as I was behaving exactly the same way on purpose ) I always do .
Mine are usually 5days . 1 months or max around 3months trades this is due to the time of break out I look at , i.e. if a pattern takes 5 days , 1 month or 3 months to form I have enough data and back testing to support an idea of how long it should then take to reach the target , and an idea of the chance of success and failure , based on pattern testing.
Most of the time its all about how you manage the risk i.e. place the stop loss * the chance of failure vs the target profit * the chance of success . Funnily enough that very basic calculation is not understood by 90% of the retail investors out there .
What other stocks do you look at Captain LK ? Other than I know you looked at Sirius but that is not one for me. Am starting to look into WEIR ( which is where i saw you posted recently ) , currently formed an interesting pattern and has an interested chart consolidation after the long fall .
My calls are mostly TA based and I trade full time for quite some time now . Well over 4 years actually .
You may have caught my calls around these bbs. No one can deny the very good track record . I'd give you my account screen print , that would make some take notice .
You can't deny that my track record is clear , precise and explained well . Other than my long term play on FRR all the rest is a CFD or Spread Bet . Even if I was a 10 year old on a simulator , the calls are still good . Most not all obviously and I post when I lose , there is nothing wrong with that at all .
If one chartist gets 1 trade wrong or 2 or 3 you have to evaluate over a decent data set . How about asking about the Stop loss , the risk reward and the overall profitability . Follow all posts and then criticise .
The fact that FINRA acknowledges charting and approves the Market Technician Association chartered status means that you can't blame the tool . How the charts are then interpreted is a different story .
I was stalking Genus myself as I do all stocks with a period of consolidation . I didn't trade purely because of my margin ( today full ) and the gap up , I had a buy at 1310 but never got filled due to the gap up .
Not because my charts did not spot this . I also had a sell order at 1210 .
So attacking charts because Lambrini called this wrong is really wrong .
I see that my entry point was 1320p back in August 2012, so, given that the divis have not been much to write home about, perhaps it was a little optimistic to state that it was a stroke of genius to buy Genus, given that it's only now 1381p.
Still, never mind, eh? It's done very well recently. So that's all right.
"A strong pound wiped out what little growth there was at big dollar-earner LSE:GNS:Genus in the year to June. Lower pig prices had already caused a slump in Chinese profits at a time when the animal genetics firm was spending heavily on expanding ..."
No obvious surprises. PEDV doesn't look as if it's getting any worse, and farmers appear to be coping. The pension liability also isn't getting any worse. A 10% hike in the annual divi is good. China, though rather a smaller proportion of the whole company than the attention to it would suggest, seems to be growing OK.
This was odd wording from Karim:
"Although we face some continuing headwinds, we expect to perform in line with expectations in 2015."
Well, you would do, wouldn't you?
All in all, I'm reasonably happy to hold on the strength of these results, though Genus has disappointed more or less ever since I bought my stake (2.8% of shrunken wad).
"I don't have a good handle on how Genus's competitors are doing though ... or indeed who they are!"
I have a better handle as a result of listening to Farming Today on the wireless this morning. They had a piece about an outfit called JSR Genetics (nothing to do with Genus alas) who are in the pig genetics business. Apparently the Chinese are now happy to import seamen instead of live pigs, which sounds like excellent news for all companies involved in raising the apparently low productivity of Chinese porkers, given that it costs £250,000 just to charter a 747 to take a load of pigs out China way whereas you can take a few pints of seamen in your rucksack apparently.
It's a shame that Genus has not managed to get its name on Farming Today on Radio 4, which has been doing pieces on pig production all this week.
LKH at the Wash & Valet nevertheless keeping the faith with Genus
The Finance director got back to me with the following email;
Thanks for the email. Our next public comment will be in early May when we issue our Interim Management Statement (IMS). There are a number of industry sources that report and track what is happening with PEDV, many available via a google search. The virus is clearly continuing to spread. I have attached a Rabobank report on it in case you are interested.
Good that he replied and the pdf makes interesting reading but I can't link it. You might google successfully ; from rabobank agfocus march - this little piggy cried P-E-D-v all the way home
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