I don't think there were any surprises in the results, but that's not a bad thing.
David - when you say " Chi-Med is comfortable with, and actually sees advantages in Lilly not taking up global rights to Fruquintinib as they are gearing up on the U.S Regulatory side", is that something you picked up on from the presentation ( I've skimmed the pdf, but havn't watched the video yet ) , or is it just a gut reaction ?
Personally, I've always thought that Eli-Lilly will just adopt a "wait and see what happens in China first" attitude. If they think there's money in it for them to take up the global rights, then surely they'll do so ?
Chienese authorities Approval for the first drug candidate is vital. Until then, unless some other positive news is provided, slow drift of share price can be expected.
Perhaps, good for those patient investors to accumulate cheaply.
DG, is any monetary value provided by the CEO for Chinese approval for the first drug?
Why hasnt Aim hailed Chi-Med success?
Two companies on Londons junior stock market, the Alternative Investment Market, claim about 90% of the attention. Thats understandable, since fashion retailer Asos, the biggest, and tonic water upstart Fever-Tree, the third biggest, are well-known firms that have been superb investments.
Whats the second biggest? Its Hutchison China MediTech, or Chi-Med, which has performed just as well. The firm first was mentioned in this column as long ago as 2009 when share price was 200p. Now the shares are £51.40, giving a stock market value of £3.45bn.
Chi-Med is the first serious attempt to build a Chinese-based international pharmaceutical firm, and the project is plainly going well. Mondays full-year numbers continued the smooth progress. Fruquintinib, a colorectal cancer treatment being developed with US pharma giant Lilly, could be launched in China later this year. Savolitinib, for lung cancer, is partnered with AstraZeneca and being tested in combination with some of the UKs firms established drugs.
Nothing is guaranteed in the drug-development game, but Chi-Meds soaring valuation points to investor interest, especially in the US, where the firm now has joint listing on Nasdaq. The Aim market has its critics, but the criticism in this case is that London has not done enough to shout about a big success. If there were more Chi-Meds, nobody would care about titans such as Saudi Aramco.
1. Chi-Med is comfortable with, and actually sees advantages in Lilly not taking up global rights to Fruquintinib as they are gearing up on the U.S Regulatory side, so can now go it alone outside China
2. AZ have said they will proceed into final stages of development with Tagrisso globally
3. The fact the Company is setting up their own Regulatory Team based in the United States is important - they can push approval for Fruq (if Lilly do not take ex China rights) and for unpartnered drugs in the future - that is massive
I am looking forward to the numbers and of course the 2018 forward guidance but the most interesting part will be updates on Fruquintinib (especially what Lilly are doing with regards to global rights) and Savolitinib (especially what AZ are planning to do with regards to seeking BT designation)
sometimes there is a disparity between the prices when using the wholesale exchange rate but I notice it usually corrects itself. The Co website has some info about this aspect and it's interesting to note that UK MM's can buy ADR's to satisfy a UK order and U.S MM's can also buy AIM shares to satisfy a U.S order. In other words they all have access to both pools of stock to satisfy any buy/sell orders.
sporty - I agree. My understanding from the Management Team is that Eli Lilly had one more chance to take up global rights (ex China) to Fruquintinib by about March 2018. This topic will almost certainly come up at the Analyst meeting on the 13th March, which will be webcast.
As for Savolitinib my understanding is additional data was being presented to and discussed with the FDA in order to make a decision on whether to go down the Breakthrough therapy route.
I agree an update on both topics is required and probably expected! I am sure we will hear shortly, either prior to the Annual Results day, or shortly before. Either one of these would be quite material and provide a welcome re-boost to the share price.
Lacking updates about Eli Lillys decision about Fruquintinib and AZs about Savolitinib. The former has been pending for sometime, if I am correct. Any update from the company will be very helpful to all concerned.
well I bought more yesterday - not sure I understand the correlation between the prices of the two listings and sterling v dollar rate but obviously Nasdaq price is off its highs too and I bought on that weakness, hopefully temporary!
I am biased bu time to get IN not OUT when you think we have a lot of material news coming any day including:-
1. CFDA Fruquintinib approval
2. Lilly decision on global rights to Fruquintinib
3. AZ decision on Savolitinib and poss Breakthrough Therapy designation
4. FY17 results
Plus many other things!
Part of the price drop in the UK is because sterling has gone from $1.33 to $1.40 in the last 2 weeks and NASDAQ drives the price now.
We are due more material news in the next few weeks and months than we've had in the last 10 years so anyone selling now may regret it in 6 months time, but I accept everyone has different entry and exit points and profit targets.
Personally I am a long term Investor so I continue to buy.
Interesting perspective from yesterdays Pharma letter on China Regulatory reforms including this very important point:-
"In addition, novel orphan drugs and biologics will enjoy an extended period of exclusivity of ten, rather than the usual six years" - That could be extremely beneficial and allow a potentially greater payback on investment
Belated Merry Christmas and Happy Near Year all. Thank you for your kind mention Sporty Investor, and do hope all who post here are well! Well, it's hard not to be with this almost ludicrous share price.
Some of you might remember I took half of my holdings off the table when I hit 100% profit and am now in this share absolutely free. Funny thing is, I'm up 168% but compared to many of you, I'm sure that's child's play.
As for crypto's, well I fear they are a huge bubble waiting to burst, so I am not envious in the slightest at those fearless enough to tackle the virtual coins.
As for HCM, well I'm still young, and I have many many (hopefully) more years ahead to let my entire profit based holding rise.
Special thanks to David, your information has been incredibly informative.
I too bought my largest chunk around the £3 mark and have continued to pick up smaller bundles in the £20s, £30s, and £40s. I have not sold a single share and do not intend on doing so for many years to come. Like many, this is by far my largest holding.
I have been reducing my portfolio, selling others shares at profit and putting into HCM, I am doing this because I can let HCM grow without the need to monitor on a daily basis. And I'm doing this because I entered to Crypto space around October time. This, on the other hand, needs minute by minute monitoring, none of the usual charting analysis applies. It's very exciting, full of risk, but also rewards. I see people, turning 3k into 5k in literally 30 minutes.
Seasons greetings to all the learned and intelligent posters here.
What a fantastic journey we have experienced on this HCM ship. More correctly, its been super sonic jet! The true share price has beaten every prediction made here. Ever optimistic DG had calculated £45 for the year end. Well, with the Nasdaq hcm price at $40 a piece, aim shares are valued at $80 (~£59)
Thanks to DG, Bernie, Sally, Maru and all others for the informative posts and for answering the questions posted.
I probably bought my first batch at much the same time as you ( around £4 ) and was adding ( and occassionally reducing ) for a few years and ended up with ( for me ), quite a few shares in ChiMed. That means I'm well overweight in them as a result, which is a nice problem to have
I too, have sold shares when I've thought they were overvalued, only to see them rise more and more, but I've also sold shares and then watched them stall, or fall as well. so, for me, I tend not to be greedy.
We currently have a market-cap of something like 3.5 Billion GBP.
... suggests an EBIT figure of ~ 250 million in 2026 , then that would value us on 14 times future earnings eight years down the line. Eight years is a heck of a long time !
I was originally going to sell another block if it got above £60, but momentum still seems to be with us so greed may win the day in the short term, but if it gets much above £70 in 2018, then I'll almost certainly be taking some more off the table !
well Bernie I'm resisting selling any more - the share owes me nowt as running profits largely (although did buy more at 42, 45 and 47 dips, thanks David G for lead). Despite having taken profits a number of times under £30, It's by far my biggest share but if I'd never sold any (taking profits as it multi-bagged) I would be in a very different (and better!!!)place entirely as first bought at 3.32... It's hard to get out of habit (for me) of not taking profits (especially as clearly arguable price is too high at this precise mo) but doing so on my best growth shares (including this one) has probably been the biggest single (and repeated) mistake I have made over last 15 years or so. Not doing it again! Well not with this one.
I think, at £55, we're now above your mid-year target for 2018 David ?
The rise in the last twelve months of ~140% has been quite remarkable, and I hope it continues. Despite reducing at £40, Chimed is still my largest holding, so I may well feel the need to reduce again if the price rise continues, but I wish those strong enough to hold, or add the very best of luck
All time high reached yesterday on NASDAQ, 2018 is going to be a huge year for the Company as we launch our first drug onto the Cjinese market and possibly get BT designation in the U.S. for Savolitinib. Despite the huge recent growth in the share price I thionk the best is yet to come.
For anyone who missed it, here is a great article that sums up the massive potential
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