Belated Merry Christmas and Happy Near Year all. Thank you for your kind mention Sporty Investor, and do hope all who post here are well! Well, it's hard not to be with this almost ludicrous share price.
Some of you might remember I took half of my holdings off the table when I hit 100% profit and am now in this share absolutely free. Funny thing is, I'm up 168% but compared to many of you, I'm sure that's child's play.
As for crypto's, well I fear they are a huge bubble waiting to burst, so I am not envious in the slightest at those fearless enough to tackle the virtual coins.
As for HCM, well I'm still young, and I have many many (hopefully) more years ahead to let my entire profit based holding rise.
Special thanks to David, your information has been incredibly informative.
I too bought my largest chunk around the £3 mark and have continued to pick up smaller bundles in the £20s, £30s, and £40s. I have not sold a single share and do not intend on doing so for many years to come. Like many, this is by far my largest holding.
I have been reducing my portfolio, selling others shares at profit and putting into HCM, I am doing this because I can let HCM grow without the need to monitor on a daily basis. And I'm doing this because I entered to Crypto space around October time. This, on the other hand, needs minute by minute monitoring, none of the usual charting analysis applies. It's very exciting, full of risk, but also rewards. I see people, turning 3k into 5k in literally 30 minutes.
Seasons greetings to all the learned and intelligent posters here.
What a fantastic journey we have experienced on this HCM ship. More correctly, its been super sonic jet! The true share price has beaten every prediction made here. Ever optimistic DG had calculated £45 for the year end. Well, with the Nasdaq hcm price at $40 a piece, aim shares are valued at $80 (~£59)
Thanks to DG, Bernie, Sally, Maru and all others for the informative posts and for answering the questions posted.
I probably bought my first batch at much the same time as you ( around £4 ) and was adding ( and occassionally reducing ) for a few years and ended up with ( for me ), quite a few shares in ChiMed. That means I'm well overweight in them as a result, which is a nice problem to have
I too, have sold shares when I've thought they were overvalued, only to see them rise more and more, but I've also sold shares and then watched them stall, or fall as well. so, for me, I tend not to be greedy.
We currently have a market-cap of something like 3.5 Billion GBP.
... suggests an EBIT figure of ~ 250 million in 2026 , then that would value us on 14 times future earnings eight years down the line. Eight years is a heck of a long time !
I was originally going to sell another block if it got above £60, but momentum still seems to be with us so greed may win the day in the short term, but if it gets much above £70 in 2018, then I'll almost certainly be taking some more off the table !
well Bernie I'm resisting selling any more - the share owes me nowt as running profits largely (although did buy more at 42, 45 and 47 dips, thanks David G for lead). Despite having taken profits a number of times under £30, It's by far my biggest share but if I'd never sold any (taking profits as it multi-bagged) I would be in a very different (and better!!!)place entirely as first bought at 3.32... It's hard to get out of habit (for me) of not taking profits (especially as clearly arguable price is too high at this precise mo) but doing so on my best growth shares (including this one) has probably been the biggest single (and repeated) mistake I have made over last 15 years or so. Not doing it again! Well not with this one.
I think, at £55, we're now above your mid-year target for 2018 David ?
The rise in the last twelve months of ~140% has been quite remarkable, and I hope it continues. Despite reducing at £40, Chimed is still my largest holding, so I may well feel the need to reduce again if the price rise continues, but I wish those strong enough to hold, or add the very best of luck
All time high reached yesterday on NASDAQ, 2018 is going to be a huge year for the Company as we launch our first drug onto the Cjinese market and possibly get BT designation in the U.S. for Savolitinib. Despite the huge recent growth in the share price I thionk the best is yet to come.
For anyone who missed it, here is a great article that sums up the massive potential
I've just bought more again, as I do regularly and have done for the past 10 years.......there will be another large rise in the share price next year at the time of the results, and the approval by the CFDA of Fruquintinib.
NASDAQ reacts very positively to material news and we have a lot to come during 2018. As the Evening Standard recently said, this will be at least a $20bn mcap company within the next few years, eg. five times its current value
CFDA approval for Frquintinib is due any time, especially as this will have been given a priority review for unmet medical needs, similar to the U.S. FDA's process. Could be approved within 6 - 8 months so that is any time now until Feb 18, may push out further but unlikely
Loads of other pipeline news due, the pipeline is growing and growing, now with the 3rd wave
hi Bernie, thanks for your great insights, and I understand your point entirely about the P/S aspect. You point out the low debt, which is ceratinly something unusual in the developing Biotech space. It would be good if we do not have any more placings, although the market seems to have liked it, so I guess the view is the Company deploys its capital very well.
I'd agree that £250 a share in 2026 is achievable.
Mind you, by 2026, Chimed will (hopefully ) be a reasonably mature company, with a history of growing sales and, more importantly profits, so I'd disagree that valuing us on a forecast P/S ratio would be any use. Companies tend to be valued on P/S ratios when their profits are small ( or zero ), but are expected to grow as a result of increasing sales.
By 2026, I think we'll be valued almost solely on our profits, and how they're growing.
Given we have little no debt, our EV is the same as our market cap, so there seems little point in quoting EV/EBITDA ratios, by definition, they're going to be pretty much identical to the P/E ratio.
Which leaves us with the P/E ratio that David's thrown up. For low to medium growth companies, a P/E of ~80 would be ridiculous, but if a company is growing or is expected to be growing it's profits at ( say ) 50% a year, then that'd give a PEG ratio of 1.6, which wouldn't be cheap, but would be justifiable
If profits were only growing at 25% per annum, then that'd give a PEG ratio of >3, which would, for me at least, be a pretty strong sell signal.
It's all very theoretical anyway, because it's almost impossible to estimate what profits will be in nine years time. but, to stick with David's £250 per share in nine years, that'd mean we'd grow the sp by just under five times, which sounds fantastic, and it is, but it's actually "only" equivalent to an annual growth rate of 19%.
I bought my first batch of shares in July 2012 at something like 390p ( probably at much the same time that David sold up first time round ) which are now worth 5200p, which is equivalent to an annual rate of ~40%, so, while a hoped for growth rate going forward of ~20% is very nice, it's got less margin of error if things don't go quite as hoped for, or take a bit longer.
Mind you, I wish I hadn't sold a few at £40 so what on earth do I know !
It is my opinion that the recent fundraise in excess of $300m is much larger than is needed for the current pipeline development , especially given the Commercial platform cash generation, further property compensation from the Shanghai govt coming shortly and milestone payments.
I am speculating, but we could be about to have some kind transaction such as the recent Celgene-Beigene one or maybe we are planning to buy back further drug rights or a bigger share of the IP like we did with Astra last year.
All the indicators including Brokers taking all the excess over-allotment suggest something is on the cards
Thanks Bernie for taking time from your sunny break to explain.
Most of those 65k shares were traded ( after market trading hours) at prices of £52.80-53.00
The best sell price quote I got during market hours was £ 52.62 and it was 52.40 by the end of the day. The nasdaq ads share prices also dropped marginally, by few cents. Hence, I assumed those trades could be buys. But, my assumption could be wrong!
When you look at a lot of the trades which appeared yesterday, a lot of them look to be delayed, so you'd need to look back to the price at the transaction time to decide if they were buys. I just tried to work it out, but couldn't see the wood for the trees.
The sp has been going up since the share issue though, so pressure is overwhelmingly positive. It's possible that there'll be profit taking from people though, but you really might as well wait till next week rather than get too hung up with on it.
BB - enjoying the sun in far away places while also enjoying the sp rise !
Not sure if the last post is in relation to Hutchison China MediTech shares. The sp has risen 2.3% from yesterdays peaks.
Just seen two very large trades going through in the last few minutes. £53 a share, most likely buys. 5000+4800 shares.
Appears Some People have got a clue about the real valuation of this monster!
Bitcoin looks like a bubble. Assuming it is a bubble, then the trick is to pick a valuation where it still seems to have some legs, and sell before the bubble bursts. As to what that valuation is, I have absolutely no idea, but I won't be putting any money in it so I'm not thinking too hard about it. Obviously there's a chance that Bitcoin really could change the world and it's not a bubble, but I think that's unlikely.
I know nothing about blockchain.
Good luck with whatever you do, and remember it never hurts to crystallise a profit ( or a loss for that matter )
Now a days, I am unable to find information about directors share dealings and holdings. Barclays stockbrokers have removed this information link from their online site. Tried online investor chronicle without any success.
I too bought in many years ago around the £3 mark. I have added a little over the years. But I have never sold.
Personally, I am pleased that this is a very quiet, the rubbish that is spouted on other boards of shares I own is unbelievable! The very reason I seldom post.
OFF TOPIC I have just entered into the bitcoin and blockchain arena - it's very interesting, very high risk too. But there is the potential to make some very serious money. Interested in others views? DYOR.
I don't think anything has changed in the fundamentals this year. The company's delivered on what was expected, but, barring the fund raising, hasn't really come up with any surprises ( good or bad ). All that's changed is that sentiment amongst investors is much more positive.
I'm not going to try and guess at the sp in the short term. Eventually we'll be valued on a combination of the anticipated bottom line from our pipeline and the time it's expected to take to get to that level of profitability. I do think we're currently a tad overvalued, but not enough to make me think we're in an investment bubble, so, while sentiment is with us, I'm happy enough with that and will probably continue to take profits over the next two or three years. After all, that's why I invested in the first place !
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