A lot of speculators money in Cryptos at the moment and no sustained move away from stocks. I expect that will change when the US gets a few interest rate rises and stocks begin their downward journey. Money will go somewhere and gold might come into its own again. I remain a gold buyer and share seller.
HGM is at roughly the same price level that I bought in at. It's re-visited this level a few times over the last few months so it must be an important support level. General volatility and share price weakness is rife atm and the gold price, although solid, is not providing an equal counter balance to general stock price falls. Precious metals are trading sideways and there is no clear direction. This could change suddenly and there is plenty of issues around to spark off a return to the safe haven of gold.
I am not tempted to buy more currently and that is true for the market as a whole but I am certainly not selling.
hi and have a Good Day. marktime,
I Concur & your valid points to ponder.
The Pic a Box question for me is 2nd H Div. payment maybe a low 2.5 + p this time ...mmm eish. I'll just have to wait to mar-apr 18.
My last top-up - 1.44p so I will see , says me the blind man mmmm. ;-))
As always DYOR and happy trading.
Must have been dozing when this grazed 140p, might come round again, I would like to be back in. Share performance remains highly sensitive to GBP:USD:RUB movements, the gold price obvs holding well above $1,250, and the cost of Russian debt which has continued to fall. Hard to be sure but I expect mostly positive news when hard numbers are put on FY17 in early April, should come with a Q1 update.
For a given price of gold the more RUBs a USD buys the better ... having fallen from the mid-70's into the 55-60 range last year we have stayed there, but logic (!) says rising US interest rates and falling rates in Russia should make USD stronger ... despite US administration efforts to weaken the dollar as being good for trade. GBP has strengthened 10% over USD, never mind the logic, so otherwise good results do not translate so well into sp and dividend in pence. A stronger USD while the gold price holds up is what we should be rooting for.
The implications of the survey reports are not immediately apparent either, more gold but less concentrated deposits? My take is the extended life of assets will need investment and a higher operating cost to exploit. A prudent approach of using cash flow for investment and reducing debt to keep the AISC to its splendid low level are further signals to a slightly more restrained dividend.
You also have to ask, if you were Abramovich the erstwhile major shareholder what would you do, ... likes to take risks, with other people's money, so he might not be so worried by the $210M debt at 4.4x net earnings of $47M in 2016, he might point to the increase in recoverable asset value from the surveys.
I don't think you will regret topping up, Dingledangle, many fund managers and tipsters are struggling to find good investments to recommend. Many end up tipping gold and silver. Jim Mellon has just mentioned that he thinks gold will rise above $1500. Inflation is steadily rising, the dollar is weak atm, the bond bull run is at an end and the gold price has already responded by rising to around $1340. One reason why we are not seeing the benefit for this rise is the strength of the gbp against the dollar. That's why timing when buying gold stocks as opposed to gold, is complicated. There are too many moving parts. However, I don't see the gbp rising quite so quickly against the dollar now that it has reached $1.41. It may continue upwards but not at the same pace imo.
The fall in the price of bonds is likely to continue which will affect equities too. The price of gold should benefit and so should efficient gold miners.
That may or may not be the cause ... my view is that the policy announcement weakened expectation of dividend yield unless free cash flow is also paid out by discretionary special dividend instead of putting it to development and to debt reduction.
There has been no production news, no reported stakeholder activity, no corporate deals, no broker revision. Nothing to reduce the Russia risk factor.
This is not the only gold miner to have ramped up recently.
There may be a hope for better realisation of profits following debt reduction and a potential boost from more favourable USD-RUB exchange rates in future; or a belief that we are at the beginning of a sustained step up in gold prices.
A similar bubble early last year quickly popped. This one may have further to go, I have probably done my usual trick of jumping ship way too early, but I get anxious when I cannot relate a significant share price trend to actual business performance or outlook information. Speculation, or someone knows something I don't.
Since through good fortune the SIPP in question was already half way to 2018 target I decided to capture the HGM gain and switch across to EAT, as you saw, for a rather more predictable high income.
I still like the company for its low AISC and I will be back at some stage.
price increase seems to have followed this announcement on 12th December
"Highland Gold Mining Limited ("Highland Gold" or the "Company", AIM: HGM) today announces that the Company's Board of Directors has adopted a Dividend Policy as follows:
Highland Gold Mining aims to pay a dividend that takes into account the Company's cash generation, profitability, balance sheet strength, and capital investment requirements.
The Company anticipates total dividend payout for each financial year will be 20% of Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities.
The Board may recommend the distribution of additional cash on the balance sheet through increased or special dividends should those funds not be
equired for capital expenditure or debt repayment."
By my reckoning, wth net cash flow In H1 of $59M or circa £42M, this means £85M for the year giving a 3% underlying yield with the prospect of "increased or special dividends"
those buying either like the adoption of a policy and or think the opportunities for additional dividend paymentss is high.
Confession ... I have cashed my HGM holding in recent times. No real motivation, just quitting while I am clearly ahead and not too sure what is going on.
Puzzled why the sp has surged to 170p+ in the past month stimulated by ... well what exactly?
? gold dipping to $1250 before returning back to $1305+?
? end of year attraction to gold as a haven?
? clever investors anticipating something I don't understand?
? (no) news from the company?
The sp stuck in sub 150p territory for much of the year and I see no fundamental shift in performance or outlook, the miner is still doing its mining and Trump is still being Trump. Assets have been re-appraised but putting potential into production is still a pipeline rather than reality, likehood of a sustained dividend was already high, exchange rates have settled rather than swung back, so we just have a sentimental bubble at this time of year, or I am missing something?
Anyway, my conclusion is that the current nonsense about who has the biggest button on their desk is just that, we are as likely to see 145p again as not before April, when I will be back.
Hochschild announces Redemption of 7.750% Bonds due 2021
"Hochschild Mining plc ("Hochschild" or "the Company") announces that it has today (through its wholly-owned subsidiary, CompaÃ±ia Minera Ares S.A.C) instructed the trustee to give notice to the noteholders in respect of the redemption of all outstanding Notes with outstanding principal, in aggregate, of US$294,775,000 (ISIN: US204474AA86 (Rule 144A) USP3318GAA69 (Reg S) and CUSIP: 204474AA8 (Rule 144) P3318GAA6 (Reg S)).
The redemption is expected to be undertaken pursuant to Article V of the indenture and paragraph 5(b) of the Notes with settlement expected to occur on 23 January 2018. The redemption price is set at $103.875 per $100 principal amount of the Notes, equating to a total payment of US$306,197,531.
The redemption will be financed through existing cash resources in addition to borrowings under committed facilities, in aggregate, of US$200 million on the terms outlined in the table below and is expected to result in a significant reduction in the Company's interest payments."
$100 million BBVA/Scotiabank 1 year 1.75% (BBVA)/Libor+0.32% (Scotiabank)
$100 million Citibank, N.A./The Bank of Nova Scotia 2 years (1 year grace period) Libor+0.7%
"The early repayment of the bonds is testament to the strength of our operations and our ability to generate positive cashflows. Also, we are now able to refinance the balance of our debt at significantly better terms thus substantially reducing interest payments and improving the financial results of the company. As guided, we continue to deliver on our strategy to reduce debt and strengthen the Company's balance sheet."
I hope you are around. I wanted to give you the heads up on Connect, CNCT. It's paying a 10%+ dividend that is well covered by EPS and FCF. Have a look at the BB, particularly Bill's comments. It has just released the latest figures.
Of course, you are all invited to have a look. Sorry for the intrusion.
I've grabbed a further 3,500 shares this morning ahead of being ex divi tomorrow. Averaging 156p but still think they are a good defensive play should the value of gold increase on any global stock market weakness. As ever, time will tell. GLA that are holding.
Well it's all about opinion and I just think that taking out the exchange rate factor, this wasn't a bad set of results. Decent dividend and increased precious metal mined. So, I'm in for an initial 2,500 shares at a shade over 163p. GLA that are holding...
Can't see much that will propel these higher apart from rising gold price (which may well happen),
but I also sold out having held since 25p days.
I may well come back but feel around 140p is about right.
todays figures were, i thought. Borrowings up a touch, AISC up rather more, pedestrian gold output (although full year guidance unchanged) with much of the uninspiring outcome being apparently down to the partial recovery of the rouble since last time.
The yield here is the main appeal for now but better prospects reside with FRES in prospective total return terms and to a lesser extent CEY but prefer FRES overall, given the greater upsurge in the AG price of late which has yet to be fully recognised, imv. Just my take, anyway, fwiw - sasa.
The ramp up for precious metals has already started. Today's increases seem to have bi-passed some pm miners but be patient. The geopolitical risk caused by North Korea is providing the current impetus although that's not the impetus I would have liked to see. It's also fact that prices of mining shares do not track or mirror the trajectory of gold or silver prices perfectly. However, quite often they will run ahead depending on how well a miner is doing and investor nervousness.
I have doubled my holding in CEY and will do so in HGM if I consider the price right for me. I have also increased my holding in the FTSE daily short, XUKS thankfully before Wednesday this week.
The curious series of round number trades this morning - does that suggest HGM is being traded out of treasury or placements by a big corporate holder rather than on the open market between normal investors?
There must be some reason why the sp was being held back despite plenty of buyers on a surge in Gold to $1,290, to which HGM has been quite sensitive at other times. We haven't really seen the benefit of good H1's yet have we, serious sp progress might be waiting for the divdend announcement due c.25 Sep. Someone please show a chart indicating this is about to ramp, it is hard having to be so patient.
I have just bought some HGM shares as they look reasonably stable and hopefully will maintain their generous dividend. I am not expecting any stellar growth and instead, I am looking for insurance against any sudden market correction. I also hope that HGM will prove to be a useful and more profitable substitute for my previous holding of PAF. This will sit alongside my other gold miner holding of CEY.
An encouraging report on Q2/H1 production figures in an RNS yesterday with gold produced over 131,000 oz head of last year's half-way 127,000 and management are confident they are on target for 260,000+ for the whole year. Significantly, the average sold gold price of over $1,250/oz is 10% or so ahead of last year.
The H1 financials report is due towards the end of September and should include an interim dividend similar to or better than last year's 5p. Lower costs due to debt reduction, much higher revenues while the gold price holds up, a bumper profit on the cards.
The negative is having to work on tailings at unpronouncable mine no. 3 and needing to develop new opportunities into production, which is now in process but might take a while to see the benefits.
All very very good though, meeting my hopes for performance worthy of 180p, would the market please catch on now please and thank you!
Stellar in comparison to TSG, their production report last week indicated furious mining of mostly empty rock!
Hi casa - yes, I'd assumed that your adjusted AU price was a typo which should have read $10k per oz with annual production pretty static at some 2700 tons, I think it is.
The scarcity of this immutable stuff was starkly illustrated a while ago in a stat I saw which stated that 'all the gold ever mined still wouldn't fill two olympic sized swimming pools!'...
Certainly agree that the QE experiment has hugely distorted the normal economic relationship betwixt the money supply and asset valuations; the recent crashes of LTCM in '98, the dot com boom two years later and the latest financial crisis in 2008 all occurred 'out of the blue' and thus your 'gas leak' analogy is quite apt, I think.
Expecting the next 'black swan' event occurring at some point soon has to be the prudent approach, if history is anything to go by and taking on board some AU exposure in good time, is the best form of insurance that I know of, even against cash held - sasa.
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