I am very pleased to hear that you are still invested. From memory, I believe that you were one of Dr Trice's earliest investors,(please correct me if I am wrong).
I know how I feel after four years invested here, still sitting approximately level on my current average, and looking at about a 25% drop on IPO as we sit, so I take my hat off to you, both for your patience and stamina.
I certainly have no complaints about the incredible results the company has achieved to date, or the ability, expertise, work ethic or integrity of Dr Trice. Both have achieved way far and above my expectations from when I originally invested. It is unfortunate that the sp has not kept up.
However, I retain total belief and remain completely committed to this company. If Dr Trice says that all this oil is in place and the wells will perform as he predicts, I for one am very happy to trust him. Eventually the market will catch up and the sp will begin to become a bit more realistic.
Like yourself I am also not getting any younger, and would like to see a decent return before I turn my toes up, lol.
Thanks for that, HTL. What with being back in the UK after weeks of loveliness abroad, and the weather closing in again, every little helps! I was a mug to buy a few at a price higher than this even before it went public. I have learned a lot about the amount of capital needed for serious drilling. I too have a target in excess of £1 (but would probably accept that, not getting any younger). Of course, when last private capital raises were going on, oil was in excess of $100/barrel, and none of us believed US shale would become so big so fast, but hey-ho. I still believe in FB, and the oil in the paperweight on my shelf is so light, I can't believe it won't flow. It's just down to the connectedness and 'cleanness' of those fractures.
Reluctant to buy more, because it's quite a big position for me, but if it slides to 30 again, it would seem to be worth the risk of anyone's spare change...
`Russia exports most of its crude oil production, mainly to Europe - EIA
14 Nov 2017 - Exports of crude oil and petroleum products represented nearly 70% of total Russian petroleum liquids production in 2016. Russia's oil and natural gas industry is a key component of Russia's economy, with revenues from oil and natural gas activitiesincluding exportsmaking up 36% of Russia's federal budget revenues.'
It would seem that if we want to poke Putin in the eye to dissuade him from murdering at will, the solution is
Even more bedtime reading! This time from Investomania. Interesting to see BP and Hurricane in the same news item. I know it's dated last year but when news is short on Hurricane it another news item that confirms Hurricane's potential.
Sometimes it's wonderful to reminisce about the past. It brings back memories of things some beautiful experiences and times. Memories that are precious and can never be replaced. Especially where families and friends, past and present are concerned.
With regard to investing, one of my favourite sayings is " the best guide to the future is to look at the past."
I've invested in the stock market for longer than I care to remember and I've seen many a "dead cert" turn into a "dead duck."
Although I've tremendous confidence in Dr Trice and his team, I believe in taking profits when they arise. I do this by top slicing. I realise that I would probably make more money by not top slicing but I don't like to think I'm greedy.
That also reminds me of another of my favourite sayings. " No one ever went bust making a profit."
Mikemine: `I don't know what the worse- case scenario is'
Me neither, but he has clearly written off `non-commercial' (after all, the exploratory drill flowed very well), so he is perhaps simply covering himself in case the total accumulation turns out to be anything smaller than
(All in line with Dr T's propensity to under rather than
That reminds me of many years ago, when I used to sit and watch "Winnie The Poo" videos with my daughter who was about three at the time. I am sure that line was from "Winnie The Poo and Christmas Too".
I am not sure who enjoyed it more, her or me, lol.
Even in a worst-case scenario, it is still going to be commercial, thats our belief.
I'd always assumed that it was a case do or die with the EPS and therefore a fair sized risk. I don't know what the worse- case scenario is but it leaves the door open for different degrees of risk rather than all or nothing. That in itself makes a better investment case.
From my post at 11.15 on Sunday:
`as I know to my cost elsewhere, it can be very expensive to rely solely on the opinions of people whose job depends on preserving the illusion of future success. They may harbour doubts privately, or even be carried away on a tide of optimism and infectious enthusiasm, but either way, they are not going to give you an unbiased opinion.
The latest example of misleading investors is Theranos:
`The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Silicon Valley-based private company Theranos Inc., its founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes, and its former President Ramesh Sunny Balwani with raising more than $700 million from investors through an elaborate, years-long fraud in which they exaggerated or made false statements about the companys technology, business, and financial performance
Fortunately, Although the early story of HUR could have been a similar mirage conjured out of smoke and mirrors, in oil exploration faith alone is not enough. Drilling results cannot be fudged, you either find oil in commercial quantities or not, so current shareholders can have a great deal more confidence in the eventual outcome than the early pioneers who had the courage to back Dr T and his wild idea which would ultimately need hundreds of millions to develop the UKs future oil resources. Later investors are brave too but at least we had some positive evidence even if in was only seismic, at least it had moved on from being only psychic!
We are not there yet but the oil is there, the equipment is being readied and HUR is changing from a Developing start up to a fully fledged company with acknowledged value and a proven track
Forgot to say thank you Tarkers17. Great update although I don't know what the bouy is doing shrouded in scaffold or indeed still in Dubai. Wasn't it on the way to Lerwick? I'm getting too old for this. Take no notice.
PS I'm not at all envious of 26 degrees. Oops my nose seems to have just got longer.
I thought Arnie was still governor of California but I guess not, although he still seems to be in the political arena. Arnie for President anyone?
Anyway, if the big 5 had a leader I would offer to stop shipping oil products in to California and see what Arnie says to that. Any agreement to that would quickly see an end to Arnie's career in politics I reckon, the Californians are not noted for giving up their easy lifestyle, and whats he going to do, turn down a chance to stop the cause of so many deaths coming in to California or say no we're OK with all that oil after all even though I know its going to kill lots of Californians? Lets see how green he really Is.
On a more real track, if he has a beef surely it should be with the car manufacturers who have produced high polluting engines for years or maybe car drivers for driving them. Do you prosecute metal manufacturers for homicide or the guy that fires the metal gun?
`Schwarzenegger says he wants to sue global oil companies for first-degree murder'
It does not take a genius to google `First-degree murder' and discover that it is: `any intentional murder that is willful and premeditated with malice aforethought'.
On that basis, he does not have a case, nobody finding, developing, selling oil has any intention of harming anyone although everyone will acknowledge that some loss of life will inevitably result from the use of oil, whether it is via global warming or traffic accidents. Equally almost everyone will also agree that life without oil would be (at the very least) far less comfortable i.e. to come to a balanced view, you need to weigh the advantages of oil when considering the harm resulting from its use. Most people, including Arnie, derive great benefits from oil:
Thanks Tarkers, Please keep em peeled and report anything interesting.
Looks like AM going into dry dock for the paint job and for the prefabricated top side upgrades to be fixed. Three or four months and she sails away?
Lots to look forward to from April onwards.
Good luck to all LTHs
I mentioned before that I could see the AM from my office window and that I'd update you with anything I noticed.
Well, today at 4pm (UAE time GMT+4), three tugs pulled the AM away from its mooring where it has been for the last few months and took it to another part of the same ship yard, that is sadly out of my view. It may be heading to a dry dock.
The bouy is still in position on the quay and is heavily shrouded in scaffold.
The AM appeared to have been having work done to the derrick on the stern starboard side, it no longer appeared to have the helipad in position (although I may be mistaken about this) and was having work done to three mast/short derrick type structures located above the white accommodation superstructure at the front of the vessel.
Not sure if any of this is relevant or useful, but its info you may be interested in.
"""We are confident in the geology, but its not just Hurricane being confident. We have a number of industry experts who have viewed our data, have told us of their opinions and we believe that it is a go project."""
Apparently, geologists are not that good at words:
"""We are confident in the geology, ( by which he hopefully means `we are confident that there is oil) but its not just Hurricane being confident. We have a number of industry experts who have viewed our data, have told us of their opinions (unstated here) and we (still?) believe that it is a go project. (otherwise I am out of a job)."""
The point I was making was that moving to the main market does not automatically mean tracker funds will invest. Moving to the main market in itself does not mean entry into a tracked index. Markets and share indices are different things.
I think it's a non starter to compare Hurricane with GKP.
Given the circumstances surrounding GKP it was a miracle they even got into production. Everything was against GKP and lots of investors got their fingers very badly burnt and lost a fortune.
I don't know of any fledgling oil company listed in the UK, other than Hur, that has funding in place to bring a major oil discovery into production. Hurricane owns 100% of all it's assets and has no debt.
Absolutely super find. It provides increasing confidence in Hurricane going forward. I reckon the key paragraph spoken by Dr Trice is as follows:-
"""We are confident in the geology, but its not just Hurricane being confident. We have a number of industry experts who have viewed our data, have told us of their opinions and we believe that it is a go project."""
The board has been very quiet for the last few days. What we need is some news so that the impetus gained last week is maintained and improved upon. The last thing we need is for the share price to drift back towards 30p.
I wonder when we are going to hear who the new Chairman will be? Also, how much progress has been made towards Hurricane leaving the casino that is AIM and being listed on the main London market?
Once on the main market there will be tracker funds whose investment strategy means the fund managers will be committed to buy into Hurricane.This should provide the share price with some momentum.
As each day goes by we are getting nearer and nearer to first oil from Lancaster. If everything goes as planned there could be first oil towards the end of this year. Even though Dr Trice has stated H1 2019 is when we should expect FOIL it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest we see the black gold Q4 2018. Even if we have to wait until H! 2019 it will be worth waiting for.
I wonder what the share price will be when the RNS is issued stating that Lancaster is up and running.
I suppose the acid test will be when an announcement is made at a later date confirming steady and improving production with little or no drop in pressure. This is probably the news a predator oil company will be waiting to hear.
Has anyone any questimates on what the share price will be when first oil is announced?
Let's hope we have some news sooner rather than later.
aquarian: `It's Dr T's own health, without which we have a disaster on our hands, that worries me most.'
I think that Dr T's unique contribution has already been made now we are at this stage. It took his knowledge and vision to get the ball rolling, but now that he has effectively derisked HUR and proved that our vast reserves can indeed be tapped, there will be plenty of oil companies interested in securing their futures by taking over HUR as soon as the opportunity presents.
The most likely reason that we have not yet been informed that serious talks are in progress is that Dr T is not only a geologist, he is also highly intelligent and that brain power is general purpose. It was used to obtain his geology qualifications and guide HUR's development, but it can equally be applied to all the other aspects of developing the company, one of which is maximising the return for shareholders (of which he is one).
He took the opportunity to put in place the funding for the EPS, so that he be able to argue convincingly that we are in no hurry to cash out, the EPS will be demonstrating that we have the means to proceed without `big oil'. We can only do that once the EPS has been running long enough to clarify how long it takes to repressurise after a significant drawdown e.g. by mid 2019 at the earliest. Only when we are at that point will he have a strong enough hand to force the big boys to dig deep and come up with an acceptable offer.
So yes it would be a great loss if Dr T could not see the fruition of his efforts, but he is a lot younger than many of us here and we have every intention of being in at the kill! But if the worst happened, most of the big risks have been taken and successfully passed, the future is pretty well mapped out right now and you could even argue that pioneering entrepreneurs don't necessarily make the best production people.
It is most likely that someone on the team (perhaps even the man himself) has thought of taking out key man insurance and that thought always encourages thoughts of the succession. On that theme, we know that there is plenty more to discover/develop as well as the EPS and the full development to run, so we can be pretty sure that Dr T will be putting in place the staff needed to do the routine stuff so that he can concentrate on his first love.....the exploration of new prospects.
The explorers of the past have quite rightly gone down in history whether they discovered plants, animals, mountain ranges or simply were the first to scale a peak or cross an ocean. But what more laudable achievement will be the discovery and development of HUR's vast resources especially against the background of Brexit. Our oil today is the equivalent of coal for the Victorians i.e. a home grown source of energy, except that oil is far more easily won, transported and utilised than coal. Each of us is playing our part in supporting Dr T's great adventure. I wanted to illustrate our role by find the backers of Victorian explorers and came across the story of the original Richard Burton or Ruffian Dick which is well worth a few minutes of your time:
You may be concerned that nuclear energy, electric cars, wind and tidal energy etc will make oil redundant; but they won't. If they affect oil at all, it will not be for a decade or so and even then, all it will do is to eke out the time over which the HUR reserves will last. Energy producers all want the highest price they can get, especially in the early days when the R&D and capital costs have pushed them well into debt, so energy is priced as high as possible and only when there is an excess of energy production over demand will the price reduce until the it becomes lower than the cost of production.
But because oil is so easily transported around the world, the above demand is world demand and world production i.e. w
I've been reading through the week end's comments on where Hurricane is heading and how instrumental Dr Trice has been on bringing naturally fractured basement reservoirs West of Shetland to within a year or so of production.
I've every confidence that Lancaster will achieve it's potential and that Hurricane's other licences will be equally or even more successful. I've many reasons for my confidence in Dr Trice in what appears to be a high risk - high reward investment.
However, I wonder just how high risk Hurricane actually is? In my view the greatest risks are with the completion of the FPSO vessel on time and hopefully an uneventful voyage from Dubai to Lerwick. Completion of sub sea work on time and preparing the two wells already drilled for production. Also the weather W of S can be unpredictable to say the least.If any of these doesn't go to plan I'm sure the share price will have a rough ride.
Since my initial investment in Hurricane in mid 2014, Dr Trice has always under promised and over delivered. I've always thought that the best guide to the future is to look at the past. Also don't forget that although Dr Trice is the undoubted expert in his field he must have an excellent team working with him. These could be described as unsung heroes and heroines of the organisation who have played a key role in getting Hurricane where it is today.
Two further factors that confirm my confidence in Hurricane is the ease with which they raised the funds to get Lancaster up and running and also the recent CPR. These reports are normally very cautious and conservative in their estimates of oil in place. The CPR issued in Dec 2017 increased 2P Reserves+ 2C Contingent Resources by 231% to 2.60 billion booe.
The following link is another opportunity for some informative bed time reading!!
Wise words, Floss. I have no problems with Dr T's expertise, rose tinted or otherwise. Like you, I feel he has already proven the concept as far as it can be proved, and in an admirable manner. My fear is much more basic, in that the EPS and onwards, involves some quite tricky times, mostly via Mother Nature. It's Dr T's own health, without which we have a disaster on our hands, that worries me most. Hurricane's success is fundamentally down to just one man I feel. And that's dangerous and somewhat risky. If we had a whole team of top geologists at the helm, I would be less nervous.
But, as ever, it's high risk.......high reward. And we make our choice. I just wish the whole of 2018 didn't contain quite so much suspense. I could do with a bit more relaxation!
"It is also worth noting that Dr T predicted these results well before there was much to support his opinion, so that must add enormously to his credibility. We can now truly believe his opinions with a high degree of confidence and that of course means that we can look forward with similar levels of confidence to a superlative outcome. "
Excellent point, imo. Something that I believe is not given the attention it deserves. He did not find all of this oil with the help of a crystal ball, magic wand or blindfolded pin in the map, but his expertise, understanding of the subject and determination. That is the main reason that I hold a very strong belief in him. If he says it is there, to date it always has been.
aquarian , I don't want to add to your concerns but the reality is that we are all totally dependant on Dr T being right in his assessment of FB and as I know to my cost elsewhere, it can be very expensive to rely solely on the opinions of people whose job depends on preserving the illusion of future success. They may harbour doubts privately, or even be carried away on a tide of optimism and infectious enthusiasm, but either way, they are not going to give you and unbiased opinion.
That said, fortunately we are not totally dependant on Dr T's rose coloured spectacles, he has produced analogous FB in other parts of the world and have now demonstrated excellent flows and enormous depths of oil to the OWC, so we have passed the stage where faith was needed, we have real results. It is also worth noting that Dr T predicted these results well before there was much to support his opinion, so that must add enormously to his credibility. We can now truly believe his opinions with a high degree of confidence and that of course means that we can look forward with similar levels of confidence to a superlative outcome.
He has done an amazing job not only on the geological side but also on recognising the opportunity to grab the FPSO and arrange favourable
Floss, every share I buy at this lower price would be an even better purchase........those words seem very similar to the voice in my head telling me to buy yet more shares every time the price drops. Oh dear!
aquarian, you have my sincere sympathy, we are both in the same boat. My average is just under 40p but as I already own a vast number, I am not inclined to add any more even though the logic that justifies holding on I.e. that the SP will very likely rise considerably, is also telling me that every share I buy at this lower price would be an even better purchase.
Floss, once again the answer is simple. I have bought a lot of shares at a higher price than they are now. I find that painful. I feel the share price is currently not representative of true value of the imminent potential. Purely from a selfish point of view, I would like the share price to go up. I feel I am not alone in that wish. Its a natural thing to wish for under the circumstances. I have no intention of selling my shares at under 100p. I hope this simple explanation helps you to understand.
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