"Our fourth year of winter portfolios was not an easy one. Market volatility spiked as the bells rung in 2018, and a spectacular Santa rally unravelled in equally spectacular fashion when Donald Trump's tariff idea threatened a trade war with ..."
"The starting point for any long-term investment is to understand the business. LSE:HWDN:Howdens' annual report shows it does the same thing as it did last year and every year since it was founded in 1995, which is supply kitchens. Howdens ..."
"At this time of year many investors think about performance. They may review what went up, what went down and what they learned. Since I think monitoring short-term movements in share prices teaches me nothing about the long-term performance of ..."
Doing what I says on the tin. H2 specific LFLs are probably ca+7% min, with further uptick to feed through. Plus stable high gm%. Looks undervalued, but as any fule kno the house market is gonna collops. PS a couple of fules can be found on the Barratt bb!
Good to see one of the companies I have shares in producing a bullish trading update. Partly compensates for recent ones from WEIR and NXT. At yesterday's close SP was about 22% down on Dec 2015 all-time closing high of 531p. Was beginning to think I should have sold out in 2015. HWDN has an impressive ROCE of 47.6%. I think what has been holding SP down are brokers negative forecasts for growth e.g. pre-tax profit growth -5.1% and EPS growth of -2.3%. Perhaps they will revise forecasts and SP will rise even more.
"So what's wrong with Air Partner?What do you mean, what's wrong with it?You reduced the Share Sleuth portfolio's holding to a small rump of shares, and then said perhaps you should have got rid of them all*. Something must be wrong with itâ¦Ah. ..."
""However, it seems that there has been a significant slowdown in growth during the last 18 months.""
Hardly surprising really, as the housing market looks like it is rolling over the top and transaction volumes have plummeted in the last 12 months. If new kitchens are linked to transactions, then there lies the answer.
I have a friend who is a management consultant who contracts into Howden's and he's seeing the business on a downtrend.
Also the credit facility isn't unique, trade accounts are offered at all the big suppliers so I'm not sure why this is always highlighted as unique to Howdens.
The argument about the 16 P/E is all well and good but the E could change very rapidly in this business.
It doesn't look cheap to me, but you can probably discount something in my view, because I'm overly negative on the UK housing market.
Most people think interest rates will be close to zero for ever. I don't believe they will as they were always above inflation for the last 300 years, except in the last 10 years coupled with QE.
It all seems quite false - and houses selling at close to 8.5X the average salary is pxles apart from the historic level of 3.5 to 4X.
This stock could get hammered if there is a severe downturn - then again it might not.
I found this article on HWDN by well respected analyst Phil Oakley who now works for Ionic owner of ShareScope and SharePad, very interesting. It gives a good description of business as well as a good analysis.
"One of the key sources of growth is growing the number of trade credit accounts per depots. Howdens has been good at doing this. Note the big jump in 2016. Is this a cause for concern? Does it signal that the company is having to offer more generous credit terms in order to maintain and grow sales? Or is it a genuine sign of depot managers' ability to grow the underlying business?"
I read elsewhere: that that small building firms very much like the extended credit that HWDN gives as it enables them to complete job and get paid by client before it has to pay for kitchen etc. from HWDN. A real help with cash-flow for builders.
"Howdens has enjoyed a strong financial performance in recent years but the future looks as if it is going to be a little tougher."
"However, it seems that there has been a significant slowdown in growth during the last 18 months."
I am glad I reduced my holding by selling some in Feb 2016 at 489.2 and now happy to hold rump for long term. SP has moved up 26% since a low in early Nov last year.
"HOWDEN JOINERY (LSE:HWDN)Every now and then, we get a bunch of emails asking about a share we have tended to ignore. Sometimes, this grouping of interest can suggest news is brewing, sometimes it suggests someone is talking rubbish in discussion ..."
" HOWDEN JOINERY (LSE:HWDN) Every now and then, we get a bunch of emails asking about a share we tend ignore. Sometimes, this grouping of interest can suggest news is brewing, sometimes it suggests someone is talking rubbish in discussion ..."
Months ago I put an alert on ii if HWDN bid price greater than 453p. This morning triggered. Broker consensus on HWDN is just a hold. The Editors article posted on Thu well worth reading IMO and is more optermistic.
I have just noticed mistake in my July post should have read:
" SP has fallen 28.5% since referendum, as if UK is about to have a severe depression. I just do NOT believe that to be the case. At these prices they are at least a weak buy IMO. A SP move over the next 3 months of at least +10% I believe highly probable.", I had omitted the 'not'.
In actual fact I was not optimistic enough as by 2 Sep SP had risen 36.5% sadly fell back down again. I think that is what made me set alert as felt I should have sold in September around 460p mark. Looking at impressive ROCE of 47.6% according to SharePad I would expect growth to return to HWDN.
Think I will hold for a while longer as things seem to be getting better for HWDN.
"Richard, I need to talk to you about LSE:HWDN:Howdens. I've wanted to buy shares in the company for years and I think I'm about to cave...Howdens? What about Judges Scientific? You left us on a bit of a cliff-hanger with that one*?Later. You know ..."
SP has fallen 28.5% since referendum, as if UK is about to have a severe depression. I just do believe that to be the case. At these prices they are at least a weak buy IMO. A SP move over the next 3 months of at least +10% I believe highly probable.
Before referendum fundamentals did suggest that SP was about 10% more than could be justified. I am glad I took some profits by selling some at 489.2p in Feb.
Howden Joinery (HWDN) has traded sideways for the past year and underperformed the FTSE All-Share index in 2016 so far. Last month's four-month trading update was well-received, confirming that business at the kitchen supplier is in line with expectations.
Revenue rose 8.7% in the UK and 6.4% on a like-for-like basis, and chiefs are betting that market conditions are stable, "albeit we remain watchful". We'll know how much the £3 billion firm made when it publishes half-year results on 21 July.
As well as an ongoing share buyback programme, Howden is chasing growth. It already runs 625 depots and plans to open another 30 in the UK this year. Earlier this year it increased its medium-term target from 700 to "up to 800" depots.
A forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of just under 17 times is not cheap, but profit is tipped to grow at a fair lick if Numis Securities has got its sums right.
And it's definitely a price chairman Richard Pennycook and non-executive directors Geoff Drabble and Andrew Cripps are prepared to pay.
Pennycook has just taken over from Will Samuel, who stood down after a decade in the role, and celebrated getting the chairman's job by spending £250,000 on 54,663 shares at 483.9p.
Both Drabble, in his current role for less than a year and still boss of equipment rental firm Ashtead, and Cripps bought 3,000 shares. They paid 488.4p and 483.7p, respectively.
Even a massive sale by Matthew Ingle, the man who started Howdens as part of the old MFI back in 2005, has not dented enthusiasm. We hear Friday morning that the chief executive offloaded 1.4 million shares yesterday at an average of 486.62p, trousering a cool £6.8 million.
But the share price is up a few pennies in a rising market, and clearly there is no reason for alarm bells to start ringing. Ingle has been a fairly predictable seller of Howden shares and last summer pocketed over £6 million from the sale of stock at 492p.
From CSS: "Howden Joinery Group said its performance in 2016 to date has been in line with expectations, after seeing good progress on the implementation of a price increase. The company said revenue from its UK operations in the sixteen weeks to April 16 was up 8.7% on the corresponding period a year earlier, which, on a same depot basis, represented a 6.4% increase."
SP has recovered 9% from its closing low on 15 Apr of 445.9
Several big FTSE 100 companies ex-div today such as GSK (ord + special div total 43p) so FTSE 100 doing well considering this. Some fund managers have suggested we are passed market low. A lot depending on oil price not sliding down any more.
Decided to reduce my holding by selling around 27% of my HWDN shares at just over 789p. Feel more comfortable being a bit over weight HWDN instead of appreciably overweight. Made about 16% on average gross share cost but 6% loss based on last purchase.
Last week my limit order first at 485 then dropped to 475 not met and Charles Stanley Direct expire limit orders at market close. Did not renew and am now pleased as SP +4.4% this morning back to around 480. Think I will hold on a bit longer but feel I should have a target price, perhaps 525p.
"For those without generous maiden aunts or lottery wins, "little and often" remains the best way to build up a savings pot.Investment trusts can claim some pedigree as regular savings vehicles: their low costs, stable management and strong ..."
Since end of June SP been going mostly down or sideways apart from a brief peak at start of Dec. I had set a tight stop-loss of -7.5% on high since purchased (531p so stop 491p) based on moderate volatility of SP. This has been breached so think it may be time to take profits. House Builder's shares have in general not been performing so well lately so I suppose common cause. Not really sure why as builders reporting good demand and rising profits. Maybe tightening money supply.
Whats Propelling Howden Joinery Group Plc to Reach All-Time High?
The stock of Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) reached all time high today, Dec, 3 and still has GBX 648.59 target or 22.00% above todays GBX 531.63 share price. This indicates more upside for the GBX 3.45 billion company. This technical setup was reported by Barchart.com. If the GBX 648.59 PT is reached, the company will be worth GBX 759.00 million more.
Trading stocks at an all time highs is usually a winning strategy. An all time high points to a stock which has the most positive fundamentals ever. Even thought the pullback rate is high, if correct risk management is utilized, investors can trade very well such events. The stock increased 0.88% or GBX 4.63 on December 2, hitting GBX 531.63. About 1.50M shares traded hands. Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) has risen 14.14% since May 6, 2015 and is uptrending. It has outperformed by 14.34% the S&P500.
Out of 13 analysts covering Howden Joinery (LON:HWDN), 11 rate it Buy, 0 Sell, while 2 Hold. This means 85% are positive. GBX 600 is the highest target while GBX 500 is the lowest. The GBX 552 average target is 3.83% above todays (GBX 531.63) stock price. Howden Joinery was the topic in 27 analyst reports since July 23, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc. UBS maintained the stock on November 24 with Buy rating.
<b>Howden Joinery Group Plcs Buy Rating Reaffirmed at Panmure Gordon (HWDN)
November 6th, 2015 -</b>
Panmure Gordon reissued their buy rating on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) in a research report released on Thursday morning, MarketBeat reports. The brokerage currently has a GBX 570 ($8.79) price objective on the stock.
Several other research firms have also recently commented on HWDN. N+1 Singer reaffirmed a hold rating and issued a GBX 500 ($7.71) price objective on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research note on Friday, July 17th. Goodbody Stockbrokers Ltd reissued a buy rating and issued a GBX 575 ($8.87) target price on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research report on Thursday, July 16th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their price target on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc from GBX 520 ($8.02) to GBX 560 ($8.64) and gave the stock an overweight rating in a report on Thursday, July 23rd. Beaufort Securities reiterated a buy rating on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research note on Wednesday, July 8th. Finally, Liberum Capital reissued a buy rating and issued a GBX 540 ($8.33) price target on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research report on Wednesday, August 12th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and nine have given a buy rating to the stock. Howden Joinery Group Plc has a consensus rating of Buy and a consensus price target of GBX 537.27 ($8.29).
Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) opened at 491.30 on Thursday. Howden Joinery Group Plc has a 52 week low of GBX 362.80 and a 52 week high of GBX 532.00. The companys 50 day moving average is GBX 471.71 and its 200 day moving average is GBX 489.75.
Howden Joinery Group Plc is engaged in the fabrication, distribution and sourcing to commerce customers of kitchens and joinery. The Business offers products, like flooring, worktops and breakfast bars, cabinets, kitchen frontals and painted skirting boards. The Organization manages approximately 589 depots, which are around 10,000 square feet in size, in industrial locations. The Company sold approximately 3.8 million cabinets, 2.3 million joinery doors, over 2 million square feet of flooring, 870,000 worktops and breakfast bars. The Business has operations in Belgium, France and Uk
<b>UPGRADE..Howden Joinery Group Plc PT Raised to GBX 570 (HWDN)
November 6th, 2015.</b>
Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) had its target price raised by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from GBX 560 ($8.64) to GBX 570 ($8.79) in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, MarketBeat.com reports. The firm currently has an overweight rating on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.s price target points to a potential upside of 16.02% from the stocks current price.
Howden Joinery Group Plc (LON:HWDN) opened at 491.30 on Thursday. The firms 50-day moving average price is GBX 471.71 and its 200-day moving average price is GBX 489.75. Howden Joinery Group Plc has a 12 month low of GBX 362.80 and a 12 month high of GBX 532.00.
Other equities analysts have also recently issued reports about the company. Numis Securities Ltd reaffirmed an add rating and set a GBX 515 ($7.95) price target on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a report on Friday, July 24th. Goodbody Stockbrokers Ltd reiterated a buy rating on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research report on Friday, October 30th. Beaufort Securities restated a buy rating on shares of Howden Joinery Group Plc in a research report on Wednesday, July 8th. Panmure Gordon lifted their target price on Howden Joinery Group Plc from GBX 490 ($7.56) to GBX 570 ($8.79) and gave the stock a buy rating in a report on Thursday, July 23rd. Finally, Berenberg Bank lifted their price target on Howden Joinery Group Plc from GBX 530 ($8.18) to GBX 570 ($8.79) and gave the company a buy rating in a research note on Friday, August 21st. Three analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and nine have assigned a buy rating to the stock. Howden Joinery Group Plc has a consensus rating of Buy and a consensus price target of GBX 537.27 ($8.29).
Howden Joinery Group Plc is engaged in the production, distribution and sourcing of kitchens and joinery to trade customers. The Business offers products, including kitchen frontals, worktops, flooring and breakfast bars, cabinets and painted skirting boards. The Organization manages approximately 589 depots, which are around 10,000 square feet in size, in industrial locations. The Business sold about 3.8 million cabinets, 2.3 million joinery doors, over 2 million square feet of flooring, 870,000 worktops and breakfast bars. The Organization has operationsin Belgium, France and Great Britain.
<b><i>Howden Joinery managed to skirt the troubles seen elsewhere in the sector since summer and October trading was "outstanding", so the shares have scope to recover after the battering they took on the heels of Travis Perkins' warning last month, N+1 Singer told clients.
"Performance in H2, including the key October trading period, has been outstanding at +10% LFL particularly once positive gross margins are also factored in," N+1 Singer said.
Thursday's 10% like-for-like sales figures from the company imply a two-year growth rate of about 22% and represent a substantial market outperformance, the analysts said.
Furthermore, the manufacturer and supplier of fitted kitchens, appliances and joinery products should continue to avoid the deterioration in business seen by some companies in the sector "even if housing activity softens slightly given the tenuous link there vs consumer confidence and replacement cycles (still recovering)".
The impact of the Living Wage should also be immaterial given Howden's bonus/salary structures.
After Travis Perkins's warning, shares in Howden Joinery fell back to a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.6 versus the 20 seen at the June peak, N+1 Singer pointed out.
"The Free-cash-flow yield is 5% (or 6% ex deficit injections). We have edged our target price up 2% to 510p, so with >13% total shareholder return we upgrade to 'Buy' from 'Hold'."</b></i>
Howden yesterday reported a good sales performance to date in the second half of 2015, including during the important October trading period. In light of this, the Board stated it remains well positioned to achieve market expectations for the full year. It noted, however, that the two remaining trading months still have to be completed and together typically account for over 10% of annual revenues. Howden Joinery UK depots total revenue in the second half of the year to 31 October increased by 12.8% and this was achieved in the face of toughening comparators that have been seen since June. As a result, in the first 44 weeks of 2015 total revenue was up 12.0%, rising 9.3% on a same depot basis. Gross margin performance also remains in line with expectations. The Board went on to remind investors that, as part of the £70m share buyback programme announced on 25 February 2015, the Group has acquired 6.4m shares. This takes the total acquired this year to 7.2m, for which the consideration was £35m.
Our view: Howden is lumped within the wider basket of UK building and residential services/distribution groups, such as Travis Perkins, Wolseley, SIG, Grafton etc. Activity levels at Tool and Equipment Hire businesses, like HSS Hire, also provide a good lead indicator for the sector. Indeed, it was HSS that provided the first warning of a surprisingly sharp and unexpected sector slowdown back in July; this was latterly followed by a rash of shock-horror tales from a number of Howdens peers. The net result has been a widespread sector correction which, more recently, has even spread to the mainstream UK house builders. Yet, surely times can have rarely been better for UK building materials suppliers and equipment hire groups? The public, as ever, love nothing more that adding value to their properties while prices spiral ever upwards. Surely RMI activity should be booming against a background of more relaxed planning legislation and low interest rates/energy costs, while demand-side subsidies also power new UK housebuilding as the Government aspires to lift starts as far as 250,000/year in an effort to quell growing public disquiet over the lack of affordable housing? So what could have gone wrong? One obvious tremor was felt ahead of Mays general election, when polls confidently predicted a Labour party majority; another resulted from legal change that contrived to concentrate contractor vacations during the traditionally busy August-early September period. So It is quite possible that these together resulted in the unexpected activity hiccup; it is also true that a warm and relatively dry Q415 could subsequently result in momentum picking up quite sharply once again. Assuming Boards across the sector seek to update shareholders of such an outcome in pre-close statements just ahead of Christmas, it would be reasonable to anticipate share prices rebounding. In the meantime, of course, they may simply tread water for the next six or seven weeks. So what about Howden itself? The shares have sharply outperformed the FTSE250 over the past year and yesterdays relief bounce repaired much of the recent damage. Trading on 20x earning for this year and 18.2x for next while coming with only a modest yield, suggests almost everything is now in the share price. Beaufort accordingly takes its recommendation down from Buy to Hold while awaiting reassurance about activity levels during the important Nov-Dec period.
Howden Joinery On Track For Year After Strong Second Half So Far
LONDON (Alliance News) - Kitchens and joinery products manufacturer Howden Joinery Group PLC on Thursday said trading has remained strong so far in the second half of 2015 and is remains confident on hitting its expectations for the full year.
FTSE 250-listed Howden said its UK depots total revenue for the four months to the end of October rose 13% against tough year-before comparatives. For the first ten months of 2015, UK depot revenue rose 12% and is up 9.3% on a like-for-like basis.
Gross margins have also been in line with the company's expectations.
Howden shares were up 4.6% to 480.1 pence on Thursday morning, one of the best performers in the FTSE 250.
In the red, Travis Perkins was the worst blue-chip performer, down 6.0%, after it said its 2015 earnings are set to come in at the low end of market expectations due to continued challenges in its key markets in the third quarter
The builders' merchant and home improvement retailer said that despite planning for a reduction in repair, maintenance and improvement markets over the summer months, the actual slowdown in the market was worse than had originally been expected.
Despite continuing to outperform a weak UK market, the tougher-than-expected conditions mean the group now anticipates its full-year 2015 earnings before interest and taxation will be at the low end of market expectations.
Fellow building-products company SIG ended as the biggest decliner in the FTSE 250, down 21%. It said its sales performance had diverged in the first nine months between its UK and European operations and said continued weakness in the latter, plus some softness in the UK repair, maintenance and improvement market, mean it now expects its underlying pretax profit to fall year-on-year.
SIG said it now expects its underlying pretax profit for the year to the end of December to be GBP85 million to GBP90 million, compared to GBP98.1 million in 2014. The underlying figures strip out any exceptional items and the effects of acquisitions and disposals.
Other building materials companies were hit by the comments by their two peers. Kingfisher ended down 3.7%, Wolseley down 2.3%, Grafton Group down 4.2%, and Howden Joinery Group down 5.5%.
Most likely down due to the TPK IMS today, indicating weak housing RMI performance.
Osborne/Carney flat lined the housing market mid 2014 onwards in terms of asp & transactions to neutralise house price inflation by the time of the election. Since then transactions & asp are starting to rise, so RMI activity will follow suit on a lagged basis.
For HJ the key question is whether you believe buying a new kitchen is functional RMI or (in the era of the GBBO & general food porn) is a consumer (aspiration) franchise. I suspect predominantly the latter (which is certainly the case in furniture). If so, then HJ will operationally be doing extremely well & accelerating away. We shall know soon enough.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.