Very glad I topped up at £2.95, don't often get a 35% increase in 2 months. Thinking of top slicing, but on the whole, I think the fact that the DoJ case is well provided for, and the new stuff for junkies looks certain to be approved makes Numis' £6.40 look more likely than not.
So I'm holding, now 2.5% of wad in here, thanks to top up and recent rise.
Decided the fall was overdone, as income will be unaffected while the appeal drags on (>18 months minimum), and in the meantime the pipeline will gain approval and diversify the income stream. The price has already recovered a quarter of the precipitate fall and is now back to July levels, and possibility of takeover. So I increased my holding by a third at £2.95. Average now c£1.95 (15% at £1.20 flotation, 60% at £1.70 and latest 25% today). 1.8% of portfolio.
"A month is a long time in the corporate world â and so it's proven for drug-maker LSE:INDV:Indivior.Just five weeks ago, executives, shareholders and its long list of City cheerleaders were popping the champagne corks and celebrating stellar ..."
Does anyone think these guys might be in a position to be taken over?? If so what price could you see the shares going too and if so who might be interested in them as a company??
Not sure if anyone has any ideas on this but would be interested to hear your thoughts.
Profit up, revenue up, cash up, pipeline healthy; market cerainly likes it. Only thing stopping this from hitting £5 is the dragging on of the DoJ investigation, which they've made massive allowance for.
The FT quotes: "If Indivior can navigate these legal risks while keeping market share steady, it could become a target for a larger peer, RBC said in a recent note. RBC named as potential bidders the privately owned Purdue Pharmaceuticals, along with listed peers Endo Pharmaceuticals, Allergan and Johnson & Johnson"
"With the fatal South Korean disinfectant scandal, tough Russian market and sluggish take-up of Scholl footwear products, LSE:RB.:Reckitt Benckiser missed City forecasts in the third quarter.It's proved a perfect excuse for shareholders to bank ..."
Very nicely up on these (c90% on the initial RB stake, plus later top up), despite the occasionally bumpy ride. Had been thinking about taking some profits. But decided to wait to see what tomorrow's interims look like. Good that the $ exchange rate for the divi was decided when the £ had slumped down to $1.29.
Couple of analysts have targets of £3.50 and £3.20, which would definitely be time to think about top slicing.
"The Questor Column:
Sell Indivior after a wild first year on the stock market:
Indivior, the pharmaceutical company that was spun out of parent group Reckitt Benckiser at the end of 2014, has endured a wild first year to listed life and Questor still thinks the shares are looking risky. The company is based around the lucrative heroin addiction medication Suboxone, which has come under increasing pressure from cheap copycat versions as its patent protection ended. Sales were down 9% to $1 billion during the 12 months to the end of December, but that was only half the story.
The company is having to slash prices to defend market share, so pretax profits halved to $285 million from $561 million a year earlier. The company expects profits to fall again in the year ahead, with net income targets of between $155 million and $180 million. But it could still get worse, as the company did not include the impact of competitors cutting prices further, or copying its film version of the drug (taking the Suboxone through an edible film) in those forecasts. A court ruling due within the next four months could clear the way for competitors to enter the film market.
The shares may look incredibly cheap for a pharmaceutical company on just 10 times forecast earnings. But sales and profits are falling fast, and there is a very uncertain future for that major product, Suboxone. We remain negative. Sell.
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