(INL) Inland Homes

unusually high volume today

Will have to put upside breakout on my scan criteria in future combined with a strong trading statement. Be sure to use the technical insight button it's a great tool.

Hi GFD
Good to hear from you again, seems a lifetime ago since we first got into Pilkington Tiles, Poole Investments and finally Inland, and still after all this time, the Poole site remains undeveloped. A typical example of all that's wrong with our Planning system!
Have you still got Universe Group? I got into these a couple of years ago at just over 2p and sold out recently at 4.2p. - one of my better deals. I saw that you were in so I knew it was going to be a good investment!

Sorry to hear that you are selling up before Poole is complete but my very best wishes for the future
Regards
Stitchup

Hi Stitch ; I'm still here but poised to sell what little I am still holding. Need the money for other things, I'm afraid ! Anyway, good luck to you & everyone else who continues to hold. I'm confident that you're in for a good journey ! GFD

completely agree re: management naughties. Still, today's price action would indicate the Markets largely supportive of the placing and the need for development cash.
Recent government musings appear to show the way forward in that some development of green belt land is being considered.
I would look to top up further on weakness, should the sp drop back to placing levels.

Morning all,

"Über bull" here!

Very strong trading statement last week and as I had hoped some of the initiatives and developments that the company put in place over the past few years seem to be bearing fruit.

HOWEVER, the share placement is just wrong - at least the timing of its announcement was. After battening down the hatches, repaying expensive debt and trying to weather the storm Inland do seem to be pushing for the growth story with fund raisings and acquisitions of sites.

But how can it justify an RNS with such strong corporate language which helped to push the sp to 32p to then announce a share placing at 27p two days later. Did they decide to raise those funds, speak to interested parties, agree pricing, discuss with company brokers and NOMAD In 36 hours? Of course not, they knew on the Wednesday so why not apply a little bit of corporate governance and issue with the upbeat trading statement?

Naughty in my opinion and if I had been a buyer on the Wednesday I would be raising a few questions for the board. Wonder how many of those taking part in the equity placement were existing holders and sold some of their stock the day before they replaced them with their shiny new 27p stock?

Still, from an operational perspective we appear to move from strength to strength.

Rant over.

Cheers all

H_P

Still here also, but my last posting was Feb 2011
I have doubled my holding since then, but this is a very slow burn recovery, so see you again in 2015!

Still here lurking in the backround M8!!!
More than doubled my holdings today on the drop, IMO these are going slowly rise (hopefully )

Very few postings on this Board in recent times from the old regulars, am I the only one still left in?.
I wonder have they all taken their profit and run?
Regards
Stitchup

To be honest imperator I am quite glad they are going into building as it should increase the profit they can make on the land as well as the building side. with the amount of money that is going towards housing and low interest rates I have been looking for someone outside the main builders to invest in and I think this is pretty good. remember that the main help for house buyers only really kicks in in January. I am looking at Development Securities as well but biding my time till after the holidays to see which way the market is going.
There are a number of Companies doing this ramp up before issuing equity which is rather offsides but part of Aim I suppose.

Ruby

Hi Ruby - totally agree.

Bit miffed tbh. Not one of my best timed top ups but who saw that coming? I think it should have been announced together... but such "tricks" as this are sadly quite typical of this management (which I continue to be somewhat wary of - not least because of the hefty remuneration packages).

My only solace is that at least I didn't buy on the spike to 32p which occured when the results were announced. I think the management, despite being experts at lining their pockets, at least have a good history behind them and should make it work so I'm not too worried about the long term. But their latest strategy of housebuilding, rather than simply buying the land and flogging it to developers, does up the risk quite a bit IMO. Then again, it ups the potential profit considerably too - just hope they don't come unstuck if house prices dip.

I see they were flagged up in the IC a while back as part of a "bargain portfolio".
Has anyone heard an update on this?

Hi Imperator I was watching this stock as well and thought I had missed the boat. Find it a bit naughty that they would issue a great trading statement which moves the SP up and then announce a share placing the next day. I am sure you will still do well and I intend to buy in but not quite cricket if you ask me.

Ruby

Surprised nobody has commented on the trading update yesterday. Looked quite good to me, and I took the opportunity to top up with another 10k's worth yesterday just before close at around 30.3p after they had sold off a little. Markets are under fire at the moment but I hope Inland can finally maintain a share price over 30p.

As a Chartered Surveyor, over the years I have had to prepare many valuations for reporting purposes and this is a long established procedure as confirmed by The Red Book , the guide for asset valuation, and this has frequently created rifts between valuers and client
The complaints about this methodology go back decades. I recall John Ritblat, when he was the boss of British Land complaining bitterly about how the valuations adduced significantly undervalued his company and stated that a total sell off of all his properties would
Be the only way to realise the true value of his Company. This I guess was over 25 years ago.
If you have seen your share value destroyed by speculative companies who submit "directors appraisals" to shareholders only to see the company wiped out when the hope values do not materialise, you will understand this caution. Over many years I have seen companies go bust and my share holdings with them. Anybody remember Resort Hotels with its "in house" valuations prepared by The Brothers Grimm, or Dares Estates, who used a certain Hans Christian Anderson in the assessment(fabrication) of their property valuations.
Much closer to home, the Valuations put forward by previous owners of Inland's Poole site were less than, how shall I put it, accurate.
So there you are,, if you invest in property/ developers, this is it, and I am sure our Board is fully aware of this situation. I can assure you that as someone who always looks very closely at over optimistic company reporting, it's there to protect us, the shareholders.
Regards to all
Stitchup

Hi David,

Thanks for that, I remember you mentioning this the last time I thought about this.

It therefore remains that if NAV is calculated on the LOWER of cost or net realisable value the NAV will never truly reflect the assets held in the company.

We are unlike others because the majority of our assets are bought cheap, gain permissions and increase value.

Therefore the very essence of our business, adding value, cannot be reflected in typical NAV calculations....

Cheers

H_P

"1/ NAV only increases to 51.7mln. I can't get my head around NAV because since previous results we've had consented planning at Poole granted. I can't work out why that hasn't had a greater effect to NAV - ..... "

I queried that after the AGM and was told that assets are valued at the lower of cost or net realisable value - so planning permission doesn't show in the accounts until the sites are sold.

At last some better results, but as Harry would expect of me, I do have to add some comments before we all get carried away. If we relate the share movement to the building/development sector in general over the last six months, these are:

Inland +35%
Persimmon + 35%
Barratt Dev + 58%
Taylor Wimpey + 110%
Going back 3 years (well after the crash) the share is showing a 25%rise which of course has to be adjusted down for inflation of 13.2 % and virtually no dividend income. I.e. far from spectacular!
Of course it's all relevant: if you bought in very recently you would be delighted (as all investors have been in view of the recent strong price rises on the Stock Market) others who are longer term investors still are nursing heavy losses.
Regardless of this, the results are very promising and we all look forward to seeing sustained growth in the future
I can say however that the housing market in my area is showing some interesting improvements, and the budget should provide further stimulus. I currently hold both Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon and have recently added to both in recent times as I am confident that their is, inmo, good growth potential in this sector?
Regards to all
Stitchup

Help to buy" announced. There will be two components. First, there will be £3.5 billion in capital spending over three years to shared equity loans. Secondly, buyers put down 5% from savings and in return, the government offers an interest-free (for the first 5 years) loan for another 20%. This is repaid when the home is sold. The house cannot be worth more than £600,000. Osborne calls is a "dramatic intervention".

Morning Harry,

Talk of breaking through 30p may be a bit premature as we have fallen back again now to 27p.

Interims look very good though and obviously confidence is high at INL.

Did you notice the 8% rise yesterday (on a down day for the FTSE)?

Funny how it can trade flat for so long and then on the day before these positive results jump like that. Either it's a leaky ship or we have a few canny traders out there.

Agree with you re. company dictating the share price. All you can do as an investor is continue to buy (which I have been doing) and sooner or later the market does catch up to the fundamentals.

Morning all,

And it looks a good one to me, although some on this board may discount my views as I'm the "uber bull".

Only had a cursory glance at the figures so far, but obviously the headlines figures stand out.

Gross profit up 87%, pbt up 183%.

Couple of things of note for me though.

1/ NAV only increases to 51.7mln. I can't get my head around NAV because since previous results we've had consented planning at Poole granted. I can't work out why that hasn't had a greater effect to NAV - admittedly we've had a bumper sales record with 355 plots being sold that would have come off the NAV, but...

Perhaps it's there somewhere and I haven't seen it yet but I'd really like to see how they break the NAV down - i.e. Poole 5p, DGV 10p, Chelmsford 10p etc (purely illustrative figures).

2/ Howarth to be sold off "your Board has conditionally agreed terms for Howarth to purchase Inland's holding in that company for cash consideration of £1.4 million which, on completion, will result in a profit of £0.39 million over the carrying value of £1.01 million as at the half year end. It is anticipated that this transaction will be completed by Inland's current financial year end. Inland has a residual secured loan of £1.0 million to Howarth, which attracts an interest rate of 8.0% over base rate, that is due to be fully repaid by 31 December 2015."

As I've stated in many previous "discussions" the Board can not directly control the SP, and hence the Mkt Cap, of the company - all they can do is progress the company financially and operationally and let the market decide - it appears that the ground work put in over recent years may be bearing fruit, but these are only 6monthly figures set against a backdrop of poor 2nd half results last year so let's see how our 2nd half goes - but all in all I'm happy.

Let the market decide on the SP.

Others have blamed the SP on the BoD in the bad times, wonder whether they will now be congratulated as we break through the 30p barrier first thing and are c.66% up on 3 months ago?

Cheers all

H_P

well I thought 25p by June, I think now 35p.
Nice to see this rise. Housing market is picking up, so they say.
good luck all,
Pi

SP has risen as Inland has been tipped in IC's Simon Thompson's 2013 bargain share portfolio

hmm up 10% this am still no rns - your timing is impeccable Tipperary

fd

Hi Tipperary,

What RNS? Nothing on this site, investegate, company website or London Stock Exchange.

Do you have a link?

Cheers

H_P

Positive news again this morning,,,,,,,,,IMO,,,,,,,,,let's see if we will start a decent rise now,,,,,,,2013 coull well be our year ! DYOR

Thanks H very informative.
Ayi

Good morning all,

Good to see the news earlier this week regarding the increased profit share on DGV after we obviously paid a further chunk on the option agreement.

I was trying to find out from the company how much was paid, how much is left to pay and when by - but haven't heard anything back yet.

So I've done my own estimations based on information provided when we have increased this share previously.

I "think" that the increase from 60.51%, which is where we were based on the details in the finals last year, to 69.77% will have cost c. £3.98 million. I've based this on the fact that a previous RNS in March 2011 said that we paid £7 million to move up from 42% to 58%

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:INL.L&action=article&articleid=8203696

On that basis I believe we have around £8.75 million left to pay to move from 69 to 90%, although I don't know when this will become due.

If those figures are correct I find it heartening that the company has made enough free cash flow to pay out c. £4 million which may point to evidence that as previous information has indicated (see information contained within the fund-raising prospectus - iii post of 14.12.2012) the 1st half of their new financial year may well have seen some good sales and income.

Cheers all

H_P

P.S. If I do get any formal feedback from Inland I will post.

Finally on our way,,,,,,,,,,,,,DYOR of course :-)

News on it's way maybe ???

27/11/2012) "Inland is now making significant progress in its key operating areas with an increasing number of transactions concluding or close to doing so"

25p would be nice and God knows this has lagged the sector for so long we are due a good run,,,,,,,,,,all IMV

Pi
I hope you are right!
I have put it in my diary -25p June 1st 2013
Regards
Stitchup

The problem it's an AIM stock. i have several (must be mad) even on good news they don't go up. I'm holding them all because they are good companies (I think).
Inland 25p by summer, easy.
H.N.Y.
Pi

Good to see we have a great start for 2013.
The USA fiscal cliff has been avoided, the stock market has soared above the 6000 mark with a 115 point rise. All the major house builder shares up and the UK manufacturing index standing at its highest for 15 months.
So there's every chance that the worst may be over -fingers crossed
Regards
Stitchup

PS Inland down again to 18.75

And I too send best wishes to all on the good (leaky) ship Inland Homes.

I sold a few more today to buy Northacre where we are expecting a takeover or management buy out.

I hope that everybody at Inland, shareholders, executives and staff have a most enjoyable Christmas and a very prosperous new year.

I am sure our Board will be enjoying a well earned break, and relaxing in St Moritz,, Mustique or the shopping heaven that is Dubai, flushed and with pockets overflowing from the magnificent bonuses that "were"awarded to them by their independent non exec remuneration colleagues.
Unfortunately, here at Stitchup Towers, its Turkey Feet and Chips for us followed by a visit to the food bank to see if some kind soul hasdonated some crackers and christmas pud left overs.
Still it could be worse, we could be Greek!

Glad Tidings to all,
Ebenezer Stitchup

Ps, Inland Share price now down to 0.19p

Well Harry it looks as though there's loads of good news coming through.
Planning permission on Poole at last, great funding deal to allow exciting new opportunities, major building company shares rising and the stock market rising.
In fact all the optimism of the Annual Report seems to have been borne out. Your excellent and lengthy posting indicates that you are equally happy with all this good news. So everything is great after all,

Regards to all
Stitchup

NB Share Price as quoted in Annual Report - 0.20p
Share Price today after all the good news - 0.20p

Afternoon all,

This looks like interesting news and quick glance a fairly favourable deal for existing shareholders.

£8.5 million raised without dilution, via secured funding. Capital to be repaid on or before April 2019, so up to 7 years before debt has to be repaid, but funding up front. 7.3% interest.

So what other sites are we trying to tie up at present? It appears the money is being allocated towards further "development" opportunities.

Looks like longer term funding will match the longer timeframe it takes to get return on capital on the development sites rather than housebuilding sites. Makes good sense

Quite interesting reading through the Inland ZDP prospectus which is on the Inland website. Appears to be quite of bit of information to hand about the latest company financial position, and from early reading quite good news...

Latest shareholders:
Mark Dixon 24,000,000 13.21
Karoo Investment Fund SCA SICAV SIF 22,700,000 12.49
Stephen Wicks 16,237,332 8.94
Anthony Brett 11,500,000 6.33
Nishith Malde 11,072,400 6.09
Henderson Global Investors Ltd 10,098,143 5.56
Unique Ltd 6,652,329 3.11

Some background...
"Demand for consented land improved in the year to 30 June 2010, leading to an improvement in turnover and a return to profitability. This demand was sustained in the year to 30 June 2011 with good performance demonstrating the positive market trend in the South and South-East of England irrespective of the general weakness in the house building industry elsewhere in the UK. The reduction in turnover and profits during the year ended 30 June 2012 did not arise from a deterioration in the Group’s development projects but from a lower number of completed homes being sold and no land sales from the land portfolio owned by the Group. A decision was also made by Inland to defer a particular land
sale in order to maximise value."

And then this latest financial info for posyt year-end events...

"The Group has sold a total of 213 plots and completed homes for total consideration of £13.35 million between 30 June 2012 and the Latest Practicable Date paying £1.5 million in
deferred consideration and reducing net debt." - That looks extremely encouraging!

Also a few development updates, although we are aware of these already.

"During this period the Group was granted an improved planning consent at Queensgate Farnborough for 276 residential units; received detailed planning permission for 127 residential plots (including 14 affordable units) for the northern part of St John’s Hospital, Chelmsford; and obtained a resolution to grant planning consent for 268 residential homes and 108,000 sq. ft. of commercial space at its site at Poole. In addition, the Group signed an agreement with The Defence Infrastructure Organisation, which forms part of the Ministry of Defence, South Bucks District Council (SBDC) and Buckinghamshire County Council to formulate a detailed Development Brief for the future of the Defence School of Languages site at Wilton Park, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire and announced a conditional development agreement for the Ashford Hospital site, Middlesex with a national housebuilder in November 2012. Under the development agreement, Inland is providing the consented land into the venture whilst the housebuilder will fund and carry out the construction and manage the sales of the completed units."

Hope it has formatted ok as I've copied and pasted.

At early glance - well done Inland?

Cheers all

H_P

With consent given to the Poole development NAV must have risen, although it won't be reflected in historic accounts...read this:

http://www.safestocks.co.uk/wordpress/?p=201

"Thanks for that, appeciated. Therefore does that mean the NAV can't increase even though the value of that particular asset increases through it's life (i.e in this situation when it moves from lower value unconsented to higher value consented land)."

On page 45 of the accounts, it states
"Inventories
Inventories consist of land and work in progress and are valued at the lower of cost and net realisable value. Net realisable value is based upon the expected future selling price, less estimated costs to sell."

I think that this is what prompted shareholder comment about directors' bonuses at the AGM. We were told that the dirs had 'created' £9 million gain at Drayton Garden Village and that the remuneration committee felt it was appropriate to recognise that with bonuses. I asked where this gain had been shown in the accounts, and didn't get a proper answer, but someone on another bulletin board quoted the "lower of cost or net realisable value" and that appears to be confirmed in the accounts.

Further up on page 45
"Disposal of assets
The gain or loss arising on the disposal of an asset is determined by the difference between the disposal proceeds and the carrying amount of the asset and is recognised in the income statement. Any revaluation surplus remaining in equity on disposal of the asset is transferred to the profit and loss reserve."