"Double bottom: Recognia has detected a "Diamond Bottom" chart pattern formed on Inland Homes PLC (INL:LSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 59.88 to the range of 69.00 - 72.00. The pattern formed over 81 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis."
i was hoping to see a bounce to match MJGleeson yesterday, after their optimistic statement; INL operate in a similar market style/place, although obviously more regional and smaller. Like you, holding a bit too much (in my SIPP) and not enough GLE...still worried about their move to in-house construction.
Eadwig, "I've had a limit order set to sell a tranche and a few more shares I bought at around @54p ever since the RNS was released about that buy in order to reduce my overall exposure - to no avail as yet ...."
I took @57.7p on Friday in the end. Not as much as I wanted, but I needed to free up some cash and reduce my overall holding in INL.
Although I made a profit on that tranche, even when putting that profit against my holding price I'm still underwater with an average back up to around @64p now. That's better than it was in the past, but trading the price down has been a long and hard struggle.
I still need to unload another tranche to get my book value holding down to a level I'm more comfortable with. The next tranche has an average of about @57p book value and I have an optimistic @61p limit order set for the next 90 days.
I think INL will do alright in the longer-term, but I've had too much cash tied up here for too long now having bought too high initially, and really need to move on to brighter prospects.
Strange that this buy has been reported again today on ii. Perhaps someone in the company is as far underwater as I am here!
" By StockMarketWire | Tue, 18th July 2017 - 09:00
Nishith Malde, Financial Director, bought 90,000 shares in the company on the 17th July 2017 at a price of 58.62p. The Director now holds 11,360,029 shares.
NOTE: Average price" <--- Strange to add that to the note also, it is unusual.
I've had a limit order set to sell a tranche and a few more shares I bought at around @54p ever since the RNS was released about that buy in order to reduce my overall exposure - to no avail as yet ....
I bought back into these this week as I feel thay have fallen too far and now are cheap on assets and profits. 50p or so seems to be something of a floor for the price so hopefully they will start to rise again soon.
Nishith Malde, Financial Director, bought 90,000 shares in the company on the 17th July 2017 at a price of 58.62p. The Director now holds 11,360,029 shares.
Not quite sure what to make of that, except presumably he doesn't mind sinking over 50 grand in at a price of @58.62p so we must assume he thinks he's going to make a few percent a year on that at least, and not lose capital value.
When he already holds 11,360,029 in total though, it seems pretty insignificant. As far as I can tell, this is an open market buy, not part of some remuneration package, and £50k isn't a piffling amount even if you are relatively wealthy.
I've been trying to sell a tranche of INL @62p for quite some time, to reduce the size of my holding as much as anything, and having bought the last lot mid 50s (can't remember exactly, but documented below no doubt). I'd just reduced the selling price to 61.8p to give a better chance of catching an intraday high on a limit order, I think I'll push it back up now, having seen this!
The results should tell us something about the rate of recovery - I don't think its going to be great. However, it may beat expectations - but how many analysts actually follow INL for that to make difference to the market price? Not enough for Yahoo finance to list any.
Even then, I think some fundamental figures will be down on the previous year, but others will be improved. How the market takes that remains to be seen.
I'm underwater here with an average of around @64p and I'm somewhat resigned to holding through for another year yet at least ... with the increasing risk of a general market downturn to come.
That might not hurt INL too much with their social housing contracts, potentially set to increase. With recent events you could easily see a huge amount of money being pumped into that market in a political panic. The trouble is I doubt INL are big enough to get a very large part of that - or able to honestly name completion dates that will win them contracts in such a scenario. They might sell a lot of land at premium prices though...
and the market's view is only a partial recovery in the slow decline. But i'm positive about the marketplace they are in; my only concern is companies moving into construction contracts outwith their (original) skill set. The next results will tell us more?
Quite a few announcements, but the sum of them all will quote.... " These transactions will result in a further increase in EPRA net asset value of approximately £1.0 million since 31 December 2016"
Given that the EPRA value at 31-12-2016 was £186 million, adding a further £1 million will not make a lot of difference to the value per share.
The share price has fallen quite considerably recently, I'm beginning to wonder whether they are finding it more difficult to buy good sized sites at the right price with many other companies in the same market space.
This announcement comes just before the year end, so there cannot be much more news to include in the next set of results
lovelove, "Shall I sell and buy others like Telford or hang on in hope?"
I would advise you to have a holding in TEF (perhaps wait for a pullback as they have just put out very good results), but I would also urge you to hang on with INL as something of a recovery play. I've just bought myself, despite being a little underwater, after a rather overdone drop, I thought, after going ex-div yesterday.
H1 results (Interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2016) back in March started off with this statement:
** Positive momentum and strategic repositioning ahead of key completions in second half **
Which is exactly what TEF said, yet their H1 results were characterised as disappointing. Stockmarket Wire's headline? "Telford Homes' H1 pretax profit has been more than halved to £9.3m, from £21.0m a year earlier." TEF's share price dropped to approx @309p.
TEF's latest results just shot the lights out. TEF's share price today is at @417p as I type and touched @430p yesterday.
Now, I'm not saying INL is another TEF, but, in smaller builders like these, they don't have nice even sales spread out throughout the trading year like the big boys in the FTSE 250. It seems some journos don't really get that.
Unless INL have another foul up like a major contractor going out of business as happened last year, the H2 results (not due until September, but with year end 30th June there will be a trading statement about 3 weeks into July) will very much put the H1 results into proper context and hopefully beat expectations.
Note in the INL H1 results these statements also:
"Group revenue for the period of £32.6 million (2015: £55.1 million) and PBT £4.4 million (2015: £21.4 million), with the majority of profits due to be realised in the second half of the financial year due to the timing of the construction of Inland's sites and of planned land sales"
[The 2015 £21.4m figure included £14m ' revaluation surplus'. I don't fully understand that, I must admit, but without that the figure would have been £7.4m. I'm assuming that revaluation was a one off. It does still seem like a lot to make up, though].
"25% rise in interim dividend to 0.5 pence (2015: 0.4 pence) per share, reflecting the Board's confidence in the expected performance in the second half of the current financial year "
So, I've just added @57.6p and have left room for another tranche if the stock drifts before the trading statement in July.
I don't think they will have fully recovered from the contractor going bust on them, but the share price is going to be all about how well they've handled that situation and how well the business model is holding up to get back on track to show the promise they were doing before that disaster befell them.
is anyone interested in Inland Homes here?
I have been stuck with this one for nearly a year and it is my only housebuilder which is in negative over the year.
Shall I sell and buy others like Telford or hang on in hope/
any advice would be grately appreciated.
...and an ongoing delay and cost problem associated with the Sub-contractor failure a year ago, i read into these comments too. But i also like the optimism for the marketplace in 2017, which is what Berkeley & Boot were saying last week; it's not guarded optimism, but bullish.
One could be confused as to whether these are 12 month or 6 month figures, given all the references to the position at Dec 31 2015. Management are trying to gloss over the fact that the EPRA NAV has hardly moved since June 30 2016 (up 0.5%) by showing the 9% increase since Dec 31 2015, but most of this has already been reported in the June accounts.
Overall looks like a very quiet six months, planning consents are up but no impact on NAV values and no significant sales of land.
Henry Boot announced results today, which contained the following statement about their Hallam Land buyer/seller subsidiary: "In the early months of 2017, house builders continued to show strong interest in high quality sites and good market areas." While Boot operate nationally, they are skewed towards the northern market, so if it's pretty 'good' there, it must be 'flying' in the South...
Timescale is probably something to do with the factory spilling fuel into the ground (from its boiler house, or refuelling trucks) and that's moving towards the Ouse slowly, and equally is hard to pull it back. But biggest and most expensive problem with these old industrial sites now is the Asbestos that was used for roofing and is in fragments around the site - quite often also liberally dispersed around the place by the demolition contractor last century, who also crushed up all the brick and concrete, hoping to re-use it, only to find carcinogenic asbestos fibres in all the stockpiles! Tory government (and Coalition before it) has removed all capital funding grants from Local Authorities to investigate, let alone clean-up, these old brownfield sites on their patch; so don't expect any action from housebuilders to take that on...and Environment Agency staff numbers are also drastically cut
I was about to add, no wonder there is a lot of demand for green field sites supposedly threatening the green belt. It would make a lot of sense for the government to clear these sites at their own expense. It would generate jobs and provide land and protect threats to the greenbelt.
A reasonable choice for tax spend, I would suggest - they can also force the last land owners to contribute more easily than anyone else can. Most have to do that now anyway, but if you go back far enough there didn't used to be such clauses built into planning permission.
There's a large site in York where the British Sugar factory used to be. All it did was process sugar beet 6 months a year.
Currently they reckon 10 years to clean up the brownfield site! (About 3200 housing plots). Its already been empty about 10 years or more. I doubt INL will be looking at anything like those timescales, it just wouldn't be any good for their business model (thankfully). Not for anyone's business model, in fact. No builders anyway, perhaps a long term property fund.
I'm familiar with several former gasworks sites..., but not this one. However, i know a Contractor that was there for Natural Grid, so will scout around for any environmental constraints. But i notice it's a mixed resi/commercial consent, so they will presumably be building resi on the 'cleaner' part!
been holding this one a year, hoping for good news on site conversion rather than build out, so this is a great RNS. Hoping for another from MJGleeson soonish too.
Well, I was about to say that I reckoned something had leaked about the up-coming
H1 trading statement announced yesterday for the 28th March and that the price action had caused both the 50 and 200 day moving averages to be crossed ... I'd just done the subject line, then noticed another RNS had popped up today (see below).
The 50 day MA should cross the 200 MA day shortly, and that might trigger some (more?) technical action. There may also be some media coverage. Assuming H1 is back on track after the major contractor failure ruined the last results, We could be headed back above pre-Brexit levels. Not massive volumes though, so just a weak buy. Maybe people put off by the overall market conditions the last couple of days.
22 March 2017 Inland Homes plc
Inland Homes secures permissions for over 1,200 homes
-Land bank now includes 2,340 plots with planning consent-
INL has secured planning permission to develop 239 residential units and 15,845 sq ft of commercial space at its Lily's Walk site in High Wycombe, representing a GDV of £75 million. Resolutions to grant planning consent have been secured for a further 992 residential units on sites in Buckinghamshire and Hampshire, including the major development at Chapel Riverside in Southampton.
Lily's Walk is a prime 3.5 acre site located in the centre of High Wycombe, directly opposite the Eden Shopping Centre, which is the largest shopping centre in the region, and a short walk from High Wycombe rail station which provides access to London Marylebone within 40 minutes. The site was the former National Grid gasworks and Inland Homes will be undertaking extensive remediation and specialist environmental works to bring the site to residential standard. The development will comprise 96 two-bed, 137 one-bed and six studio apartments, as well as 15,845 sq ft of commercial space, associated car parking facilities and additional public realm improvements.
Inland Homes has also received resolutions to grant planning permission across four further sites as follows:
· In Southampton, Inland Homes plans to develop 457 residential units and 64,000 sq ft of commercial space in a joint venture with Southampton City Council. The development is a challenging waterside brownfield regeneration site and is the Company's first major joint venture with a Local Authority. The site has a GDV of approximately £100 million.
· In Aylesbury, Inland Homes plans to develop 400 homes along with approximately 100,000 sq ft of commercial space and community amenities.
· In Farnborough, Inland Homes has successfully re-planned the final phase of its Queensgate site from 46,000 sq ft of commercial space to 80 residential homes.
· In Chesham, Inland Homes intends to develop 55 residential units.
Paul Brett, Land Director at Inland Homes, commented:
"Altogether, these permissions represent a significant step forward for Inland Homes and mean that we now have a pipeline of 2,340 permitted plots. Securing these permissions is testament to our specialist expertise and the thorough work we undertake in bringing complex sites to a residential standard. Our understanding of the planning system and the strong relationships we have cultivated with local authorities in the region means we are ideally placed to further add to our development pipeline.
"Against the backdrop of the recent findings and recommendations published in the Government's housing White Paper, we are now on the way to providing well over 2,300 high quality and much needed homes in the South and South East."
I'd be a little bit surprised if they were snapped up, chiefly because M&A activity in the sector through this cycle has been absolutely minimal. I think because many companies got caught out with way too much debt from financing the 'buying of growth' when the financial crisis brought the last housing cycle to an abrupt end.
Also, the current white paper I refer to is floating the idea of a 'use it or lose it' (has an ominous ring to it, that phrase, that politicians would love to use in a sound bite) when it comes to land banks with planning permission. I.e. A time limit between permission being granted and work starting.
Needless to say that the industry has roundly condemned the idea, which is once again implicitly trying to shift the blame for lack of supply to meet demand onto the industry, suggesting that they purposely pursue a policy of tying up land to deny it to competitors and so that they can control the rate of supply and thus keep house prices elevated.
As far as I'm aware, there is no actual evidence for this, and the extended land bank pipelines of builders appears to be genuinely due to the inordinately extended process of gaining planning permission, along with all the extra section 106 orders (I think they're called) that local authorities add to virtually every development to ensure a mix of housing including a percentage of 'affordable' properties.
I doubt anyone will be looking at buying additional land plots with permission until this ludicrous idea has been nixed. If it isn't, there might be a sudden glut of land with planning permission for sale - but who is going to buy it and have the ability to develop it given the skills shortage etc?
The whole idea is so flawed, it makes me think it is a bit of a 'flanker'. I.e. The government floating such a bad idea that when their real, preferred alternative is put up, it will have more likelihood of support from the industry (whom the government are reliant on for achieving their housing supply targets, after all) through a mixture of relief and the desire to kill the idea permanently.
Having said all that, I wouldn't be displeased with @90p per share myself, but I think INL may be worth more than that once they have put the hiccups from 2016 behind them once and for all. After all, they very nearly reached that level without anyone having to offer a premium to the market at one point as the chart shows.
I find it interesting that INL's peak came some time after the general peak in the sector for this cycle (assuming that was it around late summer 2015). I've attempted to show BDEV on the same chart as a typical example of the sector's cycle, but one never knows if such things will show up on the chart after submission.
The fact that INL was still peaking later in the cycle shows their trajectory is somewhat different to the standard at this stage in their development.
wouldn't be surprised if a bigger house builder snapped them up - I'd accept 90p a share. At that price the current land bank would be reasonable value to somebody like, say Galliford Try - sudden Linden Homes influx onto the Inland plots ?
just saying...........I've been wrong many times before though!
Bound to have been some people thinking 'never heard of them, looks like they might win out in the budget, I'll maybe have a punt' ... and a few of them will remember the name and actually have one.
Yes, he could have grabbed an Inland Homes hard hat with 'INLAND HOMES' printed across it (I doubt many would would recognise the logo alone - I wouldn't!) but it might have looked a bit desperate and presumably he was talking on behalf of the smaller section of the sector.
Every bit of publicity helps. If INL were really switched on they'd get a copy of the whole piece on their web site and follow up with a handful of local press releases over the next few days. Possibly ensure a link from the piece on the BBC website (assuming its there) to the INL site. Probably easier said than done it being the BBC.
The people that will have known the name already, or definitely noted it, are potential customers for INL's products. Almost all publicity is worthwhile and adds to the value of the brand.
About 25p added to the value of the brand via the stock price would do me very nicely right now. I've been averaging down in anticipation of the up-coming budget announcements and current white paper.
..this lunchtime, brief comment about the Housing market/needs as part of a five minute vignette from a 'visible' Berkeley Homes site in London (Sajid Javid with a company hard hat on) and another 300-home site under way in Southampton showing building in progress - no logos visible, but a short talking head to camera identified Inland Homes' CE. Marketing opportunity rather lost there...
Seems to have turned into a year of consolidation rather than growth, hence the sp performance. Focussing on success in the 'medium to longer-term' may be a high risk strategy given the prevailing Brexit uncertainties etc. Here is the chairman (edited) putting a positive spin on it:
"The Group has delivered another set of robust annual results, with turnover for the year at £101.9 million (2015: £114.2 million) and profit before tax at £32.9 million (2015: £34.0 million), including a revaluation surplus on our investment properties of £18.0 million (2015: £14.5 million) which contributed to a 30% increase in net asset value to £116.0 million (2015: £88.8 million)."
"Our financial performance was affected by a contractor engaged by INL running into financial difficulties, resulting in the delay of 23 legal completions, the proceeds from which will now fall into the year ending 30 June 2017. The actions taken to strengthen our in-house construction team meant that the Group was able to quickly take full control of the relevant sites and all of the related construction activity, which significantly limited the downside suffered."
"The Group's balance sheet has been strengthened during the period, with cash balances of £16.7 million (2015: £21.4 million) at the year end and net borrowings (defined as loans and the accrued ZDP liability less cash) amounting to £54.6 million (2015: £34.9 million). Borrowings have increased post year end due to continuing investment in land opportunities and a further increase in work in progress due to the momentum in our housebuilding activities.
Given the robust underlying performance of the Group, I'm pleased to report that the Board is proposing to increase the final dividend by 28.6% from 0.7p to 0.9p per share"
"During the year, INL sold 168 homes (2015: 287) (including 21 for Housing Association equivalent units (2015: 39)) at an average price of £337,000 (2015: £264,000) per private unit. Fewer homes were sold this year compared to last year, partly caused by delays in finishing the 23 units referred to above and partly because the previous year's sales numbers were flattered by a bulk sale of 59 units."
"The Group sold 425 (2015: 440) consented plots to other housebuilders in the year"
"Our rental income for the year increased by 165% to £2.1 million (2015: £0.8 million). Further increases are anticipated in the year to come as we continue to intensively manage our commercial and residential portfolio, and effectively exploit short term rental opportunities".
"significant increase in the size of our strategic land bank (sites which are next to existing settlements and are highly likely to get zoned for development because the local authority is short of a five year land supply). From virtually no such holdings 18 months ago, we now have 17 options, delivering control over 330 acres, which offer the potential for over 1,600 residential plots.
Including strategic land, I am pleased to report the entire land bank has increased by 29% to a record 6,681 plots (2015: 5,176), a significant achievement by any measure and putting us in a good position to capitalise on these opportunities in the medium to long term."
Which don't read too bad, but there's a few 'cautionary' points hidden in there, especially the sales of units coming through in second half of this financial year (hopefully not the same ones postponed because of Contractor going bust, THIS year). But good to see options (gambles!) on some greenfield sites bearing fruit, with (some) new Council plans denoting housing in the future. And no warning on market conditions in the region...Nice Divi hike for us all...
The government wouldn't want to alienate foreign students
a) they bring cash....fees and food
b) they provide educational employment (lecturers to librarians)
c) they may eventually be a sought after commodity and would ultimately boost the UK economy with their skills after education (a ploy Dublin has been using for many years from my conversations with a couple of people just outside Dublin. Families were paid to house foreign vacation students to encourage them to stay, learn and benefit the economy) If they have trained here they may stay
MJ GLEESON PLC are about where others are in the sector, although towards the top end of recovery, but not outstripping the pre-Brexit share price as INL are. Possibly uniquely, because I don't really class WJG (who I know nothing about, but I am a big advocate of the student accommodation sector via ESP - a REIT) are operating in a very specialised sector, not really home building, from what you say of them.
They have come back to pre-Brexit levels, but so have other student accommodation builders/providers, so no big surprises there.
Keep an eye on the situation if you are invested in them, turns out foreign student figures are, unbelievably, included in net immigration figures - one of the huge issues of the Brexit vote. I don't see them as immigrants at all, indeed, they're more like residential customers paying huge amounts into UK PLC via fees and accommodation expenses.
However, a very easy political 'win' for a desperate government would be to restrict their numbers and thus massively reduce the net immigration figure by 2020 without actually doing anything. Highly doubtful a government would wantonly destroy one of the few sectors that Britain truly competes in at an international level, but it wouldn't be the first time a government made a brain-dead decision.
I agree INL are on a roll at the moment. Long may it continue.
A couple of other UK builders that are back to about or above pre-Brexit levels are WJG and GLE. Both mid caps around the £300m market cap level. They're also reasonably specialised; WJG in multi occupancy student accommodation and GLE in brownfield development (similar to INL) and land trading.
INL appears to have languished badly after Brexit, especially after the news of delays in the trading statement. Now, picked up very strongly in the last few days, and not on wishy washy August volumes either.
Perhaps it is just that they are now back on course having dealt with those problems? If so it seems like it has been overdone. Maybe a combination of the come back in the sector and the fact INL are well placed for the expected boost for smaller builders - especially those who are used to building local authority housing?
Fact is, they're above their pre-Brexit price, and I don't know any other builder you can say that about. Certainly none of the big boys and not among the mid caps I've looked at or AIM either. I haven't looked at them all, but maybe fifteen, and they all look about the same in terms of their share price graphs, about half way back up the Brexit 24th June drop - whatever their size. in other words you might expect INL to be around @66p, and that only without any trading statement concerns. @74.5p right now.
INL is a stand out for sure... the bulk of buying does appear to stop around that @66p mark though.
Unfortunately, having been in the buiding trade, a contractor going bust is bad news especially for all their sub con workforce who won't get paid. When this happens it takes quite a bit of time to get another on board and often cost more.
So in my view they won't get over this for a time and will mean very reduced profits this year.
I think the site concerned may be the one inSouthampton as I passed the site midday today and couldn't see anyone.
Anyone else know anything.
Today's RNS was a profit warning , and I am amazed the share price did not tank today .
There was an early fall in the share price of about 10% and I fully expected it to fall a lot further .
The share price is now back up to 66p !
I will be steering clear of this because they are sure to disappoint when their results are announced .
Buying opportunity this morning if you are (were) quick! As to the comments about delayed completion & exchanges due to market problems, several mid-size construction companies and suppliers being reported as credit squeezed this month (Dunne Group gone under after Santander refused credit line); doesn't necessarily mean reduced profits at this stage, just deferred to next year. Taking the construction work in-house could mean cost concerns tho'.
Tom WM, "most of the rental income comes from the houses on the Beaconsfield estate."
I never realised that Tom, Thanks for bringing my attention to it..
I think I may have confused INL with ESP, a REIT in which I am also invested, which is focussed on student accommodation rentals, but which often incorporates retail space for rent within the ground floor of its accommodation blocks.
This from the last INL trading statement (6 months to Dec 2015) is pretty clear about the situation:
"The gross rental income from commercial and residential assets at the end of the first half was £892,000 (2014*: £331,000), with the increase predominantly driven by the rental of the houses at Wilton Park, Beaconsfield. Annualised rental income is now at its highest ever level of £2.3 million and it is intended that this will go some way to underpinning the operating costs as the business expands in the future. In this regard, we are pleased to announce that since the period end we have pre-let a 4,500 sq ft neighbourhood convenience store at RAF Stanbridge in Leighton Buzzard, which is due to open in September 2016, to Co-operative Food on a 15 year lease with upward only, RPI linked, rent reviews at a rent of £68,000 per annum. "
Although housing companies have had a good couple of days, I still feel there will be further dips in share price, possibly throughout the summer until a new P.M. is in place at least, in September. By then we should have a much clearer idea of how Brexit has affected housing sales - if at all, though I think it must do from the general level of uncertainty if nothing else.
There should also be a final year report from INL around that time, which will probably have an update on the situation leading up to, and post, the Brexit vote. The trading update due (I think) later this month may be too early to get a proper read on any impact.
Due to INL's relatively low average selling price and their close work with local authorities, a slow down in the general housing market might well be in their own sales interests, although would impact land sales presumably.
Come what may, I hope to purchase more INL at perhaps a little under @50pps and have a limit order set to try and catch a low intraday price.
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