We have seen a broker estimate of 238p and for once this seems very reasonable. We can expect the price to be below what it was trading at before the announcement of the drop in profits - but surely not by much. This is still an extremely profitable company with a low p/e ratio and a high dividend which is very well covered, and considerable cash reserves.
I have bought into this in a fairly big way and I am looking to increase my stake. The problem is that the markets are not always logical!
Hopefully this will go towards creating a more favourable environment for IPF in Poland. Part of an FT article today. It is in their interest to appear 'banker friendly'.
The Polish deputy prime minister will arrive in London on Thursday armed with incentives, such as training grants and tailored degree courses, to entice senior executives at some of the biggest banks in the City that have shown an interest in shifting jobs to the continent.
Many of them have approached us, Mateusz Morawiecki said. There is clearly increased interest in leaving London.
He said talks had begun with financial institutions in London about moving middle- and back-office operations to Poland. Some 50,000 people in Poland already work for international banks.
Mr Morawiecki has scheduled meetings with senior executives at Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and others during the visit, according to documents seen by the FT. Meetings have also been set up with executives from investment fund managers at Schroders, Pimco and BlackRock.
However, Poland will have a hard job matching the credentials of rival EU countries as an attractive location for London bankers.
Frankfurt has stepped up efforts in recent weeks to win over City business while Paris has made the most concerted effort to woo London banks with promises to roll out the red carpet.
This was one of 11 companies that popped of a data mining exercise looking for recovery plays. Share price over last 2 years had to have fallen between 50% to 80% but company had to be profitable and have a positive EPS growth. IPF looked to me like the most promising of the 11.
SP has recovered 30% since low on 9 Feb 2016. Has a good yield of 4.25% covered 2.5 times and projected to rise. 2014 ROCE 19% pa. PE 9.8 suggesting not over priced. Gearing high about 130 which could be a problem.
Consumer credit to Central and Eastern Europe and Mexico dealing in small sums short term unsecured loans. This sounds quite risky to me but might be worth a small investment.
I seem to do it more often these days. I have absolutely no idea what the sale of shares by Standard for Vidacos (or is it the other way round?) but believe it is significant because nominees are usually many small private investors but the amount involved suggests not. Could it be that an overhang has finally gone?
Thanks for that Brownbull. I like IPF although its performance of late has been pedestrian. I realise that share buy back is in someways a zero sum game. The cash/debt goes down whilst the shares outstanding reduce and its an accountant's gearing game to an extent.
The connection with PFG is well known and some of my purchases have been provided through sales of PFG. Whilst PFG goes from strength to strength we have IPF marking time. As things stand PFG may well be in the FTSE100 by Christmas. They have the same DNA and synergies have to be investigated.
With patience and a bit of luck I expect this stock to start motoring. The management come over well and seem ambitious without being dreamers.
I couldn't find it initially but it is on their webpage under Investors. Then on the RHS next to the Audio box under the half Year webcast.
It wasn't accessible until today unless you managed to listen to the webcast of yesterday morning which, lets face it, was aimed at the professionals.
I am glad we had to wait a day as I managed to buy more cheaply. I recommend all those interested to listen to the audio recording.
Yes, it will impact on IPF but it will impact mostly on Pay Day Lenders rather than IPF. Our loans are for 120 days and fall outside the scope of the amendment.
Remember the negative effect on PFG when Wonga was being hunted? The CEO would not go into their ideas and mitigation of the effect of the amendment for commercial reasons but let him explain it better.
There aren't many opportunities to top up at what I see as a bargain price in a well run company.
The price moved from 27.5 to 25.25 Zloty on the news. That is £4.68 to £4.30
Obviously there are technical reasons for dual quoting and it seems trading isn't one of them. Why pay around £4.30 in Poland when you can buy them in London for £3.63? The spread must be horrendous.
Final results are due 25th Feb. Should be interesting since first half generated "record operating profit" although not sure what the effect of a weaker Euro will have on second half. Also imminent acquisition of MBF could ignite the SP.
I was planning to look at the IPF website to see if there was a date for the announcement of their Final Results (last year this was in late February), but my anti-virus (BitDefender) is flagging their webpages as having malware. Is anybody else having this problem? And does anyone else know when the results will be out?
Harry Frankfurt, a philosopher at Princeton, observed that there is a poorly understood space between lying and telling the truth. It is impossible for someone to lie unless he thinks he knows the truth, Mr Frankfurt writes. Producing bullshit requires no such conviction.
Wonga, Britains largest payday lender (it is unlisted) wants to be the future of consumer finance. It has too much in common with the past. Yesterday, Wonga said it would pay £2.6m back to borrowers after an investigation discovered that, until 2010, it misled them into believing debts were passed to third-party lawyers for enforcement. Barker and Lowe and Chainey, DAmato & Shannon would be superb names for real lawyers, if Wonga had not made them up, and then tried to charge for the fake lawyers services.
This looks a lot like lying, but there is also a strong smell of what Mr Frankfurt was talking about. Whether the lawyers were real or not was irrelevant; the point was wringing maximum fee revenue from borrowers. What hubris. Provident Financial and International Personal Finance, London-listed providers of small short-term unsecured loans, have returns on equity of about 35 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively. Those who extend credit at high rates of interest to the unbanked are well rewarded for the risks they take. They can carry the cost of paying for real lawyers to chase unpaid debts. Wonga cuts costs elsewhere: it operates online with fancy data engines to process credit. But charging lawyers fees without paying lawyers, in an industry that will always face moral scrutiny, is picking up pennies in front of a regulatory steamroller. Up to half of UK payday lenders have left the market in under two years as fresh rules bite. Wonga declared itself a disruptive spirit in its previous annual report. But disruption still has to play by the rules.
THE monotonous tune of the SHORT-SELLING deramper:
"Going down, I'm afraid" ...."been in this for years and still losing money" ...."The BoD stinks"
"Oh dear" ? ...."Placing on its way, more dilution" ...."Heard whispers in the City"
"There must be a leak, it looks like a duster" ...."A friend of mine in the know"
"This company couldn't run a pi/ss-up in a brewery" ....."Word is, the financials are poor"
You've heard it all dozens of times before, yet these often used jibes are enough to create a degree of uncertainty ?
The words "Oh dear" or " I'm afraid" at the start of the 'posters' rant often sets the sp in motion.....DOWNwards!
Deramping SHORTERS !
Shorting a rising stock....is much worse when it is done by your resident posters that seemingly are your buddies and convince 'long' holders to give up!
What many pi's fail to grasp is the extent that shorting is taking place. Often we tend to think that the 'shorter' is done with and we expect the stock to now rise, now that 'he' is out of the way? You'd be wrong in many instances, for 'he' the shorter, is often followed by others that 'help' keep the stock down !
Some stocks fall after GOOD NEWS!
Is it being shorted or normal profit taking?
The underlying reason for many pi's taking early profits, is simply they are afraid they'll be left in paper losses AND because of the fear of shorting !
Once pi's know the stock is being shorted...they'll SELL UP IN THEIR DROVES !
We can't both WIN !
The 'shorts' therefore 'win' their bets, whereas the 'longs' lose the best part of their investment, possibly for some time to come......and just when you thought this couldn't go any lower, THEY'LL SHORT THE STOCK AGAIN !
Thanks for all your support. We are now at 4,401 votes!
AND SOARING !
(that's A LOT of irate investors!)
Investors are saying something? They are voting in their thousands !
Bookmark the links if you wish to 'pass the LINK/s on'.... or read later?
BE A PART OF IT
# The big problem with shorting is that THEY (the shorters) WOULD most likely lose most of their money IF they just 'bet' on the price going down without trying to 'help' it down?
So, there is the 'catch 22' scenario. No one would know of an RNS to be released that will contain BAD NEWS, if they did and then 'shorted' the stock, then they are guilty of 'insider trading'.
The only sure way to short a stock and WIN is to spread dis-information to defame the company with help from other posters that are in concert with them. To ENSURE that they don't lose the biggest part of their 'short', ironically, then, they must deramp with (seemingly) believable posts.
When the pro's do it, they simply get the media or well known 'crooked' tipsters, analysts or brokers to do it for them. (say no more). .They're all involved together!
The campaign against shorting is for the benefit of the 'cheated' investors that cannot control their investments due to the dirty tricks played out by co-ordinated shorting in order to tank the sp to abnormally low levels.
When the campaign is complete, the results will be reviewed by Govt legislators re- further action! The branch of the FSA ie FCA will be asked by Davide Serra to conduct an investigation into short selling practices, with the view to either:- an outright ban on short selling, or to be better and more vigorously regulated !
"LSE:MRC:Mercantile Investment Trust, despite being more than a century old, is still going strong, having recently returned 27.7% over one year - nearly 10% more than its sector, IT UK all companies.Rebecca Jones quizzes manager Guy Anderson on ..."
None whatsoever, it does appear to be an esoteric adjustment that you'd have to be an Accountant to understand. Its not possible to change to a lower rate just because rates went down. I suppose the advantage must be in tax payments or something.
I would be interested in knowing whats happening in Poland with the regulatory authorities there though?
The market appears to like the fact that IPF has reduced it's finance costs even though the bond holders have been compensated for the interest foregone and the first quarter account are likely to show a loss because of the £20m write off.
Any views where this going over the next couple of weeks ?
Divi still poor however on a P/E of less than 10 this should re-rate quite heavily provided we don't get the worse case scenario in the court with what I believe a rate change or something similar???? Can some one more experienced enlighten us please?
There was something in Alphaville yesterday which doesn't tie in with what we were told http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2014-01-08/
They do tend to go for sensationalism and knee jerk journalism. They tend to lean towards cynicism but it doesn't make them wrong.
The uncertainty regarding the intentions of the Polish authorities will not underpin the price. I checked with reported shorts and to date their is nothing.
My opinion is that IPF were happy to buy back their own shares at a considerably higher price recently and were as surprised as we were with the Polish Governments action.
I continue to hold and bought some more over christmas.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.