Well I find myself a shareholder in this after being 'forced' into it by the major shareholders in Touchstone Innovations and IP. Touchstone may have lost me money but I believed in focused management there to deliver long-term (3-5 yr) returns. IP group on the other hand, management appear to be getting money and setting light to it, bunch of former stockbrokers not known for prudence with other peoples money, do they really need an Australian office at this stage or do they like the idea of 'company paid for' holidays. Anyway I feel other disgruntled Touchstone shareholders are selling their IP shares, hence recent SP weakness - am in 2 minds to cut-losses to join them or wait for some bounce back, but then am getting gut-feeling is this will keep tracking down...mmh what to do? Any lP believers out there who can sell me a buy story?
The trend has been down since 2015. So you would have thought with more maturing businesses going forward the price should be going up? Buy into strength, sell into weakness? I don't rate buying into cycles.
Price action is part related to the IVO offer imho.
Approx 34/66 % split in new group for ivo/ipo, with offer ratio and ipo sp determining ivo value.
Depending on who holds both and what % they want of the enlarged group (and what # of each currently) there can be reasons to sell down ipo.
Risk off doesn't help too as well as markets not necessarily being gung-ho currently for listed holdings and less receptive to any new floats too.
"Any adjustment to the Exchange Ratio will be finally determined at Completion and the implied offer value per Touchstone Share will be calculated by reference to the average of the daily volume weighted average prices of an IPG Share over the 30 Business Days prior to the Completion Date and will be rounded to four decimal places. The New Offer Cap is not a no increase statement and should not be taken to mean that the New Exchange Ratio or New Offer Cap cannot be increased."
I suspect post acquisition there is a chance of a relief rally, no guarantee though.
1/5 Ox Nano is IPO's
Expect float in next 12-18 months and at £1.5Bn+ mkt cap.
IVO acquisition will reduce dependence on Ox Nano and reduce volatility.
Patience is called for. Just about 12 months ago look at the price.
Since then holdings are more mature and IVO will help.
Sentiment is different now, it will change again. Ebb and flow.
Dec 2016 - "Following completion of the financing round, IP Group's undiluted beneficial stake of 19.7% in Oxford Nanopore will be valued at £246.3 Million".
Well they annouced yesterday that £23 million in the last placing will not be be completed by the buyer so I assume the underwriters are wearing a few. Not sure Woodford and Invesco who own about 40% between them are going to let it go to 70p though!
Who sold the huge amount back in April? Not shaping up very well the chart, some volume behind recent sells. If this can't break the 200 day moving average which is failed to do recently this could be heading to around 70p
Appears you might pick shares with a similar logic to myself...... carefully Does it
Have you ever looked at the ACTA board unlike us they do favor buying at highs.
Your thoughts would be of interest to me .
Topped again @ 131p ( no 3 ) first buy below 2nd May 17 . ( have not linked )
There was a capital raising RNS 23 May and 8 June. @ 140p which must of been above share price.
Logic institutions must of thought worth it. ??
Slightly above my target of 130p .. but for some reason put a buy in at 134 last week ! thank goodness did not lift.
I sold out the majority of my IP shares in early 2014 at around 200p, I've started to buy back in the past few days though as I think some of the over-exuberance that was being talked about for IP group has reduced. A good sign to start buying in my book.
I like the portfolio approach despite still having concerns over Oxford Nanopore's valuation. (Illumina is so far ahead I can't see them ever being a serious challenger) I've bought a tranche at 140p and will add some more in 3 months or 125p whichever comes first.
fwiw I'm doing a similar thing with WPCT which is trading at a discount to NAV.
Came across when looking at MWG.
Established 2000, floated on aim 2001, full list 2003.
Placing with OO 10 march 2015 ( record date 9 th ) @ 225p
In May 15 another fund raise ( just placing this time ( only two months ) ) @ 208 p to fund buy position in Oxford sciences . ??
Read Beaufort Securities's note on IP GROUP PLC (IPO), out this morning, by visiting https://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00B128J450
"The shares trade on 1.3x NAV, but if you reflect the investment uplift generated to date (cf and the most recent Tracsis x38 investment), then we believe there is plenty of upside and we regard the shares as excellent value at these levels. We..."
Market probably doesn't see any near term exits in these market conditions. Risk off too.
Innovation won't stop along with birth of new industries.
Have to look through the current turmoil to what's beyond.
Got away today and is trading up a touch on little volume.
I'll buy a small amount when I accumulate some cash in my ISA. It'll go in the high risk/huge potential return bucket!
below is an extract from a proactive investor piece this morning;
"Its not the ideal backdrop for a stock market debut the last day before the Christmas break.
But Diurnal Group (LON:DNL) appears to have got it spot on with shares racing to a premium in early trade.
The speciality pharma company, a spin out from IP Group (LON:IPO), raised around £30mln from the AIM listing and will be valued at a touch over £75mln.
The stock was placed with institutions at 144p, which suggests those who took part in the City whip-round will be very pleased as the shares are now changing hands for 151p each, albeit on minimal volumes.
As well as the placing proceeds, Diurnal has agreed a £4.7mln, five-year loan convertible at the placing price. The funding is being provided by IP2IPO, IPs original name and now the Monica for one of the incubators subsidiaries.
Anyway, Diurnal is an interesting addition to the ranks of the pharma and biotech sector.
It is focused on finding treatments for chronic hormonal diseases.
Its lead drug, Infacort, has been developed to combat a conditio called n adrenal insufficiency, which is more commonly known as Addisons Disease. It symptoms include weight loss, fatigue and muscle weakness.
The drug, which is being used to treat children under six, is undergoing phase III clinical trials in Europe. So if all goes to plan, it could be authorised by the third quarter of 2017.
It is unusual to see a company list with a drug so far along the regulatory pathway. Usually, biotechs will tap the market at the start of the clinical study programme and hope to partner a drug by phase II.
Its second drug candidate, Chronocort, for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, is set to enter its final-stage trial in the first quarter of next year.
The new funds infusion will help with the continued development of its two potential products.
Diurnal has spotted market opportunities in the specialist endocrinology market worth up to US$11bn a year.
How long then before this one catches the eye of an ambitious drug giant looking to replenish a pipeline that has slowed to a dribble because of patent expiries?"
It's an entirely valid point and it's why I sold my shares a while back. I love what they do and I applaud them for raising part of their recent capital through an open offer rather than a placing, but at the end of the day I don't trust the management to not dilute shareholders to death by constantly issuing a ton of equity.
There is an excellent book by William Thorndike called The Outsiders which I strongly recommend people read and gives some great guidance on what 'the best' CEO's do. They manage for EPS growth, not market cap growth. Too many companies just issue stock and on AIM you are either excluded or forced to put up more capital to avoid dilution. It's hard to manage for the real benefit of shareholders in a business like IP which almost by definition is building a bigger and bigger portfolio of IP and so needs more an more capital. But iI is worth thinking about as you could go round and round with capital raises on this stock and end up nowhere down the road
To calculate incentive compensation, IP Group use 'Hard NAV', which was £315.5m, with 18.8% p.a. growth.
Either I've made a right meal of it and the NAV per share figures are easy to find, or management want you to see the much bigger rise in Net assets (not per share), which would indicate contempt for shareholders and an empire-building attitude (as does issuing shares when there's no obvious network effect or other economy of scale).
Apparently the Federal Government is granting tax breaks to Xeros - which is driving it's price up ....and just might be influencing IP's price ...but not by as much as IP had gone up in recent weeks surely?! ( IP has a big stake in Xeros )
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