The price of a stock is where buyers and sellers match. There are many reasons for selling. Sellers may be bored, satisfied with the price, need the money, spooked by a fallin price, or just read a post by WS. If the price is not to fall buyers must be found. And after a big rise the number or size of buyers needed obviously rises. When there is a prolonged period with little or no news, the price is obviously vulnerable unless it is screamingly obviously cheap to a casual investor, or there are deep pocketed knowledgable investors ready to go in deeper and that we cant know about. So tighten your seat belts, relax and wait for the next news. I remain an optimist though there are no guarantees.
I think that is a bit naive. If only prices moved according to supply and demand.
You often see mms mark prices up or down a large %, in response to news, before the market opens.
That is before a single share is traded. Market makers do set prices according to all sorts of pressures.
Likewise I too bought in to this share over a year ago as it passed through £0.75.
My holding is modest by many standards by forms a substantial percentage of my portfolio.
I am sitting on a large paper profit at present but consider it worth holding for greater rewards in years to come.
Most of my holdings are longer term although I do trade housebuilders from time to time as they seem to follow predicable patterns (usuallly)(famous last words)
Anyone who think forums like this move the share price for a stock of this size are, IMO, mistaken. A typical days volume in the stock is £10-20 million worth. In the first 75 minutes of today's session the price has moved almost 4% from top to bottom and £1.2m of shares has been traded. In view of the sort of trading volumes that people on this board are likely to do I suspect that as little as 5% and almost certainly less than 10% of todays trades so far were iii PI posters- if those who have traded IQE today choose to tell us the volume they traded we could work it out.
The simple fact is that the arguments for and against IQE are powerful and so there is a regular tug both ways.
I've been a holder since early last summer because I believe in the space, and think IQE will retain a reasonable share of a rapidly growing sector. Hence even when I think the SP has got ahead of itself I don't trade out in case it just continues up and I can't get back in again for less. I'm happy with my comparatively low entry price and long term horizon. I blend that with safer and yielding stocks .
But around 120p I suspect in a year or 2 will look a good entry point
One way to answer the question would require the knowledge of how many shareholders there are of IQE shares and how many of them read these discussion boards.
I suspect that the percentage of shareholders who read this board is quite small and very probably would require the ii board members to buy huge numbers of shares to have any meaningful influence and even then the number of those who are shareholders and read this board and are actually influenced by comments herein must be even smaller. IMHO.
I am a PI investor and I got into IQE because I attended a technological department of Cardiff University. There I read that the US government h isas funded IQE progress with $50 million and have sent over one of their top researchers to work with IQE on a five-year project. I also researched about Cardiff University also funding IQE at the same time as Cardiff city council funded the company.
DS did not persuade me either way I did my own research. If you think DS has manipulated the share price going up then you could say WS has manipulated the share price going down.
I have my own mind and I do my own research and I dont get influenced to what people say on this is bb. In my opinion these are a strong buy at todays prices or any lower and the long-term hold.
I would tend to agree that repeated positive comments, with substance, do influence peoples perception of a share and how they make investment decisions. We are programmed to be eternal optimists even in the face of increasing facts to the contrary. This bb is like any club where club members do not like those that go against the grain.
I am still waiting for evidence that IQE is the filling rather than the bread in my £2.90 sandwich and will become a replacement for ARM. Also waiting for some pronouncement that will confirm the H2 expectations which surely need to be in place before the 20th March for it to be achieved.
From psychology today
'It may seem that we are in control of our thoughts and behavior. But social psychology tells a different story.
Social psychology is defined as, the scientific study of how we think about, influence, and relate to one another." We are social beings. Most of us communicate with others every day. In fact, we spend between 70 to 80 percent of our waking hours in some form of communication. On average, we spend 30 percent of the day speaking, and 45 percent listening.
One lesson from social psychology is the influence others have on us. Research shows we do not have as much control over our thoughts and behavior as we think. We take cues from our environment, especially other people, on how to act.'
The question has arisen in an earlier message whether it
could indeed be the case that Sweeney's bullish comments
did affect the share price. Well, with the infinite admiration
he has from sways of private IQE investors, there is no doubt
in my mind that his absence has allowed the share price to
slip to below 125p.
Private investors (as opposed to Institutions) are the very
ones who move the share price (up or down) here at IQE.
Just look at the trades, as many at 21 trades in just one
minute (check at 11.53am), all small private trades.
Now please don't tell me that these multiple private trades
per minute do not have an effect on the share price / up or
A good article basically reinforces what most holders who have done their research will already know. Nice to read it in a financial publication especially as it is a single stock article relating to IQE.
I have just taken another bite of the cherry and topped up again despite thinking I was fully invested several months ago. I need to try and resist!
By pure coincidence, at the same time as you were writing that I was pretty much writing my message saying that this volatility is probably not of much interest to you so why bother commenting.
My suggestion is that those that are suffering withdrawal symptoms go and look at ADVFN. Plenty of musing that amount to nothing much over there. (Although there is the odd good post among the flotsam and jetsam every now and again)
Apart from the fact that Dave has more important things to attend to, what would you like Dave and Monty to comment on?
There's no news from the company itself. Nothing of material significance has changed in how it is placed to take advantage of the opportunities that exist in the market.
There's very little news of developments with other companies that are of significance.
So, what's left? Pretty much a volatile share price and increased shorting. I believe that Dave and Monty are in this share for the long haul so this volatility and what the shorters are doing is not of much interest to them most likely.
Best leave the short term traders to comment on the volatility and the shorting activity.
I'm very flattered to even be missed, let alone mentioned.
Re Dave Sweeney, I believe, though I didn't see it, he suffered a bereavement and posted before New Year that as a result he wouldn't be posting for a while.
Re myself, it's Christmas, it's New Year, where do you think I've been??? I've been here all the time, reading the odd post, choosing not to read a bunch of others which I know will be absolute BS and a waste of my time. My job isn't and never has been to post on the bulletin board everyday, like most people I have other things I do. Moreover and most importantly after the Interim Management Statement the company has said everything about the ongoing state of the business and their likely expectations, what do I have to add??? We've already seen the management raise £95m at 140p for 10% of the company. In theory there are 10% more shares in issue and here we are, about 10% lower than on issuance.
The fact that the shares went up into the 170's, I never saw them at 180p by the way, not saying they didn't officially touch that level, is of no consequence to me as a long term investor, indeed I'm much more interested by the opportunity the shares offer after the retreat. I've been a consistent buyer at these levels and luckily I currently have one of my other holdings subject to an agreed cash takeover, which will free up £60,000. As of right now I can think of nothing more I'd like to buy than 45,000 or 50,000 more shares in IQE so it's hardly a disaster they've come back a bit, if indeed they stay around here once the takeover proceeds have been received I'll be feeling quite chipper.
But let's just consider a few other matters for a minute: 1) tech at the top end i.e. the FAANGS etc have had an incredible year BUT you just need to look at for example the reaction to the Facebook announcement late last week, marked the shares down 4.5% on the day I believe, so at best after all considerations, while not necessarily in a bear market (and why would it be? Technological advancement is the future of/underlies much of the economic growth prospects ongoing) it's obvious that tech stocks, both at the top end and of course further down the scale e.g. IQE are taking a breather - IMHO I don't think it will go on too long and see it as mainly a rotational thing 2) you may have noticed Apple's announcement re Intel chip flaws and security concerns, I don't think this has been exactly bullish for either Apple, tech, or anything related 3) re the specifics of IQE and its rating, of course it had a fantastic run and got a bit stretched perhaps and those who sold in the 160's/170's have been [short term] well rewarded. I didn't as I'm just happy to pick off shares in my target holdings. Everyone has their own style. I buy and hold with a 3-5 year investment horizon. Why would I be anything other than wholly satisfied with the company's performance and their recent update in their IMS??? I recognise short term, and of course it's easier with the benefit of hindsight, that their high rating short term made them vulnerable to retrace back towards 140p i.e. the issue price. The fact they've gone beyond that could well be because of the change in short term sentiment towards tech shares. 4) on the basis, short term at least, that there's an information vacuum between the IMS and the results announcement, and considering all the other points above (the shares had gone up, short term sentiment has turned for tech stocks in general as they pause for breath, the chip security issue hasn't helped that at all) then it's hardly surprising the shares have re-traced a bit. I have no idea if that will continue, I've bought shares at 110p the day they really had a panic, I bought some at 160p one one of my less advised days, so what?? I like the company, I want to own shares in the company. That's not a statement on what's happening over the next half hour, half week or even half a year!
The share price has gone south recently from a high of £1.80 to a low of £1.25 before recovering marginally this morning.
I have never subscribed to the view of WS that Dave Sweeney's posts had a substantial effect on the share price. The bb has recently goner very quite. Monty and Dave seem to have disappeared. Is it a coincidence or is there a degree of substance in WS's suggestion that their very bullish posts did indeed push the price north.
JUST WHERE HAVE THEY GONE ??
Got to say that I fully agree with Jonny's latest post and that we can expect to see a lot of ups and downs prior to IQE actually producing some meaningful figures in terms of profit and turnover.
A companys share price will, in the longer term, reflect the fundamental financial performance of the company and its future prospects. If it consistently performs well, continues to grow and pays dividends then the SP will reflect this. The issue with IQE is that although the long term prospects look very bullish, the company is not yet achieving revenue and profits that support a SP of 160/170p (imho) the price is being pushed there by the hype and sentiment. The traders, having done their research, will recognise this and take a short position. If this flows through in volume then the flood of share sales will drive the SP down until the pricing becomes a little more realistic, reflecting fairer value. At this time the short positions will be closed.
There is a lot of bad feeling in respect of the shorters. It is true that, as mentioned above, their trades can have a short term influence on the market. However, the fundamentals will win in the end and a company consistently performing well will see their share price bounce back and the shorters will stay away.
I do believe this company has a bright future and long term holders will be rewarded accordingly. Nevertheless, in the meantime there is money to be made!
Why not simply blame winninstreak (me) for the share price fall.
Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa....
P.S. At the end of 2017, I showed the chart with the very steep rise
to a mature and very experienced large scale investor, his immediate reaction,
without making a study, was, ..."Next year may show the graph just
as steep the opposite way." I respect his views, but he, like anyone else,
can get it wrong sometimes....
Interesting the difference between the the two brokers forecasts. The positive thing is the target share price is north of where we currently reside in the mid 120's.
I have used this retracement as an opportunity to top up below the £1.40 paid by the institutional investors when the £95m was raised a few months ago. That was real money put in by by smarter investors than me who obviously liked what they saw in respect to a positive future for IQE.
This is a long term punt, so I am happy to pick up some more shares at this level.
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