(LOGP) Lansdowne Oil & Gas

Begs the question "What is lying below Midleton Upper Wealden gas prospect?" Interestingly, they are showing the reservoir porosity higher in the Purbeck than overlying Wealdon, therefore potentially containing higher proportion of oil. Bodes well for Barryroe Purbeck and all other prospects at deeper levels. I hope we don't have to wait 2 years to see the results of Fastnet's farmout drill on Deep Kinsale!

Slightly O/T but related:

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/57175/fastnet-oil-gas-says-deep-kinsale-could-contain-over-2bn-barrels-of-oil-57175.html

LOGP incorrectly showing as down 4%, since the previous close is incorrectly shown as 40.8p. LOGP closed on Friday 17th at 39.12p (the Java Chart data for 17th is correct) and currently (11.00 Monday) is unchanged.

Lansdowne Oil & Gas ("Lansdowne" or "the Company") is pleased to announce its audited results, for the year ended 31 December 2012. Lansdowne is an upstream oil and gas company, focused on exploration and appraisal activities in the North Celtic Sea Basin, off the south coast of Ireland. The Company has targeted the Irish offshore shelf areas close to existing operating infrastructure for exploration, as these provide shallow water (generally less than 100 metres), and relatively low drilling costs and the Directors believe that these factors, combined with favourable fiscal terms, have the potential to deliver high value reserves.

Operational highlights
· Barryroe appraisal well 48/24-10z successfully tested at a stabilised rate of 3,514 bopd and 2.93 mmscfd
· Barryroe updated operator estimate of P50 oil in place estimates currently total 1,043 MMBO for the Middle and Basal Wealden reservoirs
· Barryroe additional potential identified in Lower Wealden and Purbeckian reservoir intervals with operator estimate of P50 oil in place of 778 MMBO
· Barryroe technical reservoir resource audit by Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. of the Basal Wealden Sand
· Total gross audited on-block 2C recoverable resources of 346 MMBOE (69 MMBOE net to Lansdowne)
· Barryroe North Licensing Option secured over 521 sq kms
· Amergin, Midleton & Rosscarbery prospects de-risked substantially by 3D seismic mapping and subsequent inversion. Industry farmout discussions on-going with Macquarie Capital as advisor to the Company

Financial
· Funds of £10 million (2011: £12.5 million) raised through placing of new shares
· Cash balances at 31 December 2012 of £5.5 million (2011:£3.2 million)
· Operating expenses for the year were £1.0 million (2011: £1.0 million)
· Loss for year after tax £1.1 million (2011: loss £780,000)
· Loss per share 0.9 pence (2011: loss 0.8 pence)

Hi you will have to register, to logon onto shareprofits.com.
Then have a look at the video on fastnet .
Near the end logp are mentioned

http://www.shareprophets.com/video/252/fastnet-s-presentation-at-the-uk-investor-show

....and still no holdings RNS, the big buyer hasn't finished yet!

Caraldo - agreed! It is nice to see Steve doing some of the talking, with reference to Amergin, and not leaving everything to TO'R and Barryroe.

Lovely to note in passing that Europa (EOP) are up over 50% 3 days after announcing their farm-in deal. Our turn next, hopefully - and we have so much more to offer than the other Irish off-shore players, we should be worth 100%+ on present price after confirming to the market that we can attract the confidence and investment of major players.

At Long last some marketing from Lansdowne. If you want a punt on the celltic sea ,this is the company. It has 20 % of a proven asset and has shot 3d semsic on a field just has big as barryroe.(unlike Fastnet ,Lansdowne has the asset's and the work is done !!)
see the link below

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/56066/lansdowne-oil-gas-amergin-prospect-is-celtic-seas-next-big-project-says-ceo-boldy--56066.html

2 in one day. Things definitely hotting up ATM.With any luck PVR / LOGP are next on the list.

...with over a million shares in 2 transactions bought this morning. Must surely be corporate - and we have not had a holdings RNS yet following the major trades of 9th April because the overall transactions are not finished. MMs likely manipulating the price down to buy below 45p until this transaction is out of the way - then hopefully a rerating? I'm keeping a tight hold of mine!

A rare speck of blue in a sea of red. LOGP, safe haven stock!

Looks like good timing Simon. Small flurry of interest this morning by the looks of it.

.....looks like an interesting time for LOGP

May 12 BN valued BarryR on a $17 npv/Boe with a 50% risk factor = $119m (based on a total of 69mmbo rec oil

Now we have a net 69.2mmbo rec oil x $17 = $1.17B x 50% risk fac = $588m / £367m
/ 140m shs = 262p

Plus the BN gave the deeper resorvoirs an NPV of $12 - They may hold a P50 - 778mmbo x 16% RF - 124mmbo x 20% wi = 25mmbo x $12 = $300m / £187m / 140m shs
= 133p x 25% risk factor as needs appraising = more capex from farm in partner
33p

262p + 33p + Exploration assets 65p ( as noted by recent BN) min T/O price 360p
= approx 650% upside on a full T/O

The crazy journey of LOGP good CPR lower share price....

The recent volume spike is the biggest in logo history and bodes well for a rise although nothing is guaranteed!

Interesting quotes regarding Barryroe farmout hopes......

Providence Resources Upgrades 2C Resources At Barryroe As Rig Mobilises For Dunquin Wildcat

Providence Resources has issued an updated CPR for the Barryroe oilfield in the Celtic Sea, pushing up the 2C recoverable resource to 346 million barrels of oil equivalent and putting the find on a par with some of the biggest fields in the North Sea. This is good news for the AIM-quoted operator as it seeks farm-in partners to help carry it through the capex-heavy phase of developing Ireland's first commercial oil strike.

Indeed, Tony O'Reilly, chief executive of Providence, which currently has an 80 per cent stake in the field alongside AIM small cap Lansdowne, says major IOCs and NOCs have been expressing an interest since last summer when Providence published its own estimates, now confirmed by the third party CPR by Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSAI). The interested parties include companies that would be newcomers to Ireland or returnees, who had previously been active in the 1970s before Ireland dropped off the industry radar amid disappointing drilling results and tight fiscal terms.

Ireland is now back in favour and it's fair to say that O'Reilly's Providence enjoys much of the credit, having done the technical work that has attracted big names such as Exxon, ENI and Repsol into Irish waters and delivered a drill-ready multi-well programme to test six basins around the island. It certainly helps that the first of these, Barryroe, has exceeded all expectations, with last year's breakthrough appraisal well removing any doubts about this 1970s discovery, where there is more than a billion barrels of oil equivalent in place. Or, as O'Reilly puts it, “a big tank of oil”.

No doubt the major oil companies now running a slide rule over the Barryroe numbers, will be very aware that the headline 346 million boe in the NSAI CPR could yet prove to be on the conservative side. The number is reached by adding NSAI's 2C recoverable resource of 266 million barrels of oil and 187 BCF of associated gas for the Basal Wealden oil reservoir, which carries a 35 per cent recovery factor, to the 45 million barrels and 21 BCF of gas for the Middle Wealden, with a 16 per cent recovery factor, as estimated by RPS Energy in 2011.
The difference in recovery factors is down to differences in the two reservoirs, with the Basal being more extensive and homogenous while the Middle is more patchy in quality. There is scope for both recovery factors to improve, however, even the Middle Wealden, which hasn't seen the same level of drilling and testing as the Basal. Then there's the logged hydrocarbon-bearing intervals within stacked Lower Wealden and Purbeckian sandstones, which haven't been included in the CPR, but which Providence has previously estimated contain P90, P50 and P10 in-place oil resources of 456 million barrels, 778 million barrels and 1.165 billion barrels respectively.

And then there's the Jurassic. “It's only been drilled to 8,000 feet which by North Sea standards is massively shallow,” says O'Reilly. “There could be more opportunities at depth and the Jurassic could be a huge play.”

The attraction of Barryroe is not just in the volumes of oil. Barryroe lies in shallow benign waters, close to existing infrastructure in a country that now has some of the most favourable fiscal terms in the world. And the community resistance that bogged down the development of the 1 TCF Corrib gas field off the west coast is unlikely to be an issue here, as this is an established operating area (next to Ireland's giant Kinsale Head gas field), with an existing oil refinery just 50 km away. “We will be able to leverage this existing infrastructure,” O'Reilly tells oilbarrel.com. “It's not a greenfield development like Corrib.” He stresses, however, that the Irish company has worked hard to keep local communities informed of developments and is “very alive to making sure eve

It is a weird one, this one, and no mistake. Good news and it tanks. Then, usually what happens is that a week later it suddenly jumps. Added myself, in spite of the gloomy small-cap climate.

another 6566 into my piggy bank thank you very much

GLA

H

Extract from the proactiveinvestor article:

'Davy’s valuation of Lansdowne highlights the considerable discount currently in the share price. The broker value’s the 20% stake in Barryroe at 120p, and says the whole group is worth 185p.'

So Davy is putting a value of 65p/share on the remainder of LOGP's portfolio excluding Barryroe. The current share price, around 44p, is at an almost 50% discount to the non-Barryroe portfolio, and then add on Barryroe at 120p/share! If LOGP were to sell off the interest in Barryroe at 120p/share, x 140.54m shares, equates to £168.6million in cash. What share price then?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/55496/lansdownes-farm-out-boosted-by-latest-barryroe-assessment-says-broker-55496.html

Lansdowne’s farm-out boosted by latest Barryroe assessment, says broker
By Jamie Ashcroft April 05 2013, 10:24am

Whilst encouraging in its own right the latest technical update for the Barryroe field has wider positive implications for Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LON:LOGP), according to Dublin based broker Davy.

Lansdowne has a 20% stake in Barryroe, Ireland’s first commercially viable oil project, which is now estimated to have 346mln barrels of recoverable oil in the main reservoirs that have been tested to date.

Together, the Basal Wealden and Middle Wealden reservoirs are estimated to have just over 1bn barrels of oil in place, and, following third party assessments, recoverable resource volumes have now been estimated at 346mln barrels.

This supports the plan to establish a 100,000 barrel per day operation.

The second phase of Barryroe’s development planning is also now complete, and the operator Providence Resources (LON:PVR) is advancing its farm out process to bring in a development partner.

But, Lansdowne is also pursuing a farm-out of its own for its broader Celtic Sea project portfolio and, according to Davy, the latest assessment of Barryroe will be a boost to this process.

In a note to clients analyst Job Langbroek points out that the Basal sands are present in other areas of the Celtic, including Lansdowne’s wholly owned Amergin prospect to the north west of Barryroe.

“Lansdowne is presently engaged in a wide-ranging farm-out programme to bring partners into its Celtic Sea licence, and the Barryroe audit should prove helpful in this regard,” he said.

“The independent resource audit confirms earlier operator estimates of the resource potential at Barryroe. This is positive for Lansdowne's interest in the project and also helps its efforts to highlight and promote its other Celtic Sea operations.”

Davy’s valuation of Lansdowne highlights the considerable discount currently in the share price. The broker value’s the 20% stake in Barryroe at 120p, and says the whole group is worth 185p.

Lansdowne shares were down 5% on Friday, trading at 43.75p each.

In a statement this morning, chief executive Steve Boldy said: “We welcome today's encouraging third party resource audit which confirms the substantial recoverable resources at Barryroe and the scale of the Wealden oil play in the North Celtic Sea Basin.

“This endorses Lansdowne's view of the overall prospectivity and commercial attractiveness of the basin, in which Lansdowne holds an extensive acreage position.

“We look forward to working with Providence to further progress the additional potential in the Lower Wealden and Purbeckian sandstones."

At a mid-price of 43.75p, x 140.54m shares in issue = £61.486m market cap. The update gives LOGP 68mm boe recoverable, (as 20% of Barryroe), equating to only 90.4p (= c.$1.45) per barrel of recoverable oil equivalent. This is a PROVED ASSET - it is not speculative on the success of a wildcat drill! Is there better value to be found anywhere on LSE/AIM? Was there ever a more secure multibagger investment? Where will LOGP be in 2 years time?? Either still surviving and cash-rich having sold its 20% interest in Barryroe for a commercial price, or taken out by a supermajor.

Can't wait for the newsflow which will follow this. Wake up, investment world, to the reality of Ireland becoming an oil-producing nation with international oil supergiants clamouring for an early stake in the North Celtic Sea Basin. And who owns the licenses on the neighbouring prospects? This is an absolute no-brainer.

I thought the sp would have been heading the other way this morning. I frantically was trying to transfer funds into my account this am. My bank had a slight delay in transfer which meant I could not buy on opening. Lucky.... YES... But why. I am still going to buy, but I will be buying cheaper than I was going too.

Providence Resources / Lansdowne Oil & Gas (PRV LN/LOGP LN, MCap: £400.6M/£64.8M, 635p/47.3p) - FID?: Today's Barryroe update from Providence should now be the data package that the engineers need before finalising the Barryroe development options, which in turn will lead to a final investment decision. What will then be required is development finding, which will necessitate both debt and equity. These are exciting times for not only Providence and Lansdowne, but the wider Irish offshore industry, as we believe that 2013 will see the start of a significant amount of activity in all of its basins.

Read more: http://goo.gl/yIawa

...and yet the short-term traders are selling! I've topped up at 44.7p by selling at a loss elsewhere, could buy now for 43.9p - rediculous reaction to a 21% increase in the recoverable resource (56 MMBOE up to 68 MMBOE).

Waiting now for the brokers to upgrade their targets.

Or, to put it another way, each barrel of recoverable oil is valued (LOGP's share) at £1. That's excluding any value attributable to other licence areas or the deeper sections of Barryroe.

At some point in the future we will be looking back at this point and thinking how obviously undervalued it was...

how undervalued are we??

Considering we are in a stable area, better flow rates than were expected, more upside to come from the lower formations plus the other licenses we own, I expect us to have a significant re-rating at some point.
Personally I would like to see Barryroe sold off completely and for LOGP to concentrate on proving up Amergin. We would have cash in the bank and a farm-in partner to do the drilling.

I really don't see much of a downside from here with this share, I hope I am correct.

All the best

H

http://www.investegate.co.uk/lansdowne-oil---38--gas--logp-/rns/barryroe-oil-field-technical-update/201304050705546370B/

Good luck all....

http://www.investegate.co.uk/providence-res---pvr-/one/barryroe-oil-field-technical-update/20130405070026H0462/

I'll get my yacht out of the boatyard, sail up the coast and drill the farking thing myself if they don't get a move on. It's only about 10 miles away. How hard can it be? If I can get a long enough extension lead for my Dewalt we should be sorted.

Yeah, It is a bit of a bummer all right. Wish they would hurry up and get some positive news out on the street.

Last few days looking quite positive, but a single sale of 100k this morning knocked the stuffing out of the SP. Disapppointing.

Very strange! Official spread figures 48p/48.75p, but dummy buy/sell revealed I could sell 10000 at 4.03p and yet buy 10000 at only 4.115p. Therefore almost every trade this morning is a buy showing as a sell. Cannot fathom the psychology of showing buy price at 48.75 and resultant mid-price at 48.375. It incorrectly results in the mid-price 'up 1.45%'.

In my opinion, if we get the existing estimated 60m barrels to Logp independently verified, that will be a good result. Anything in excess of that is a huge bonus and will probably trigger a massive rerating of the shares.

It's about the only one I have got right! LOL
Still below my average here but every little helps, looking foward to fair value but if it drops again I'll be buying more.

GLA

H

What is a good result and what is a bad result for logp?

Brilliant timing Highlander, and great entry point. LOGP starting to move north again today. Expect heavy buying in the run-in to Easter with CPR imminent!

NCMR posted this message on the Providence board yesterday. Can't understand why we are not seeing a significant rise in LOGP share price : -

Rather than speculate I asked

PVR CONFIRMED

...you are correct, the CPR is being finalised this week. I cannot give you a precise time for the RNS as in accordance with standard procedure, the release will be subject to review by the Irish Government prior to issue.

It is probable that it will be issued next week.

topped up another £1.2k of free shares from FRR top slice

Looking forward to this one turning the corner.

GLA

H

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=ETK020emMUWTWGc5BFjs2LVrfTe3VOB8CqoWGgD5/+k=

Fingers crossed Guesstimate. You never know, but the LOGP sp could be significantly higher in a few days time if ONLY PVR would issue that flaming CPR. Come on Tony Jr, pull your finger out!! LOL.