The bets you recommend seem to rarely be boring Disorder, although they often end up coming right back down to earth after a good jump up, for whatever reason .. eg Synairgen and Modern Water.. but the fact they have that original jump up is interesting/useful in itself ..
A very small bet for me to begin with here, but will do a little research now and hopefully add more in due course.. good luck to all fellow holders here !
Ps: The fact i'm originally from Dublin swayed me a little into getting involved here too.. I may even do a little digging on this while there over Chrimbo...
Some investors may be aware that I have until recently been a long term critic of barryroe.
The reason is that in the Celtic sea below the seabed is a thick layer of hard chalk rock which causes an echo in seismic known as a multiple and traditional seismic processing techniques to remove the multiple also reduce the signal strength of deeper layers of rock by circa 95% .
For thin sand reservoirs such as barryroe it means the reservoir cannot be traced on seismic through out the field.
Because the Celtic sea was inverted by a mantle plume circa 30 million years ago this caused shallow faults known as flower faults which compartmentalised the seven heads gas field which lies at a shallow depth above barryroe . Without seismic that can directly map the reservoir potential faults cannot be seen , with the result that project finance debt would not be available to develop the field and hence no farm outs for the last five years for a field with independent reported recoverable oil of 340 m bbls in which LOGP have a 20% interest.
Readers should look at the website of seismic image processing who have a track record in solving this problem and they have done so for barryroe.The results are very impressive so read the last barryroe update from pvr.
Now LOGP have 20% of barryroe and they have no money and they need $5m to pay for a well on barryroe that will lead to its development.
Can they farm it out.
Davy stockbrokers valued an undeveloped phase 1 development of barryroe at $5.81 per bbl earlier this year. Pvr recently advised that this next well will bring 168. Million bbls into the proved c90 category. Can LOGP farm out 50% for a carry of $5 million. The well is being drilled 200 feet up dip from the last well in a field with six wells drilled to date, the well locations are at the top of the structure so ideal as production wells. Assuming an investor got half of LOGP 20% the net reserves for the investment are worth $97 m for the phase 1 reserves at $5.81 per bbl per Davy and say $1 per bbl for the follow on reserves of 172 million bbls worth $17.2 million at total of $114m for an investment $5 million.
Can they farm it out with this new seismic, very definitely .
The value to LOGP for its remaining 10% after farm out is $114 million or £0.168 per share compared to a curent share price £0.009 an 18.6 x multiple.
The chances of success for drilling 200 feet up dip in a field with six wells and new high resolution seismic are very very high. I would estimate an 80% chance of success leading to a phase 1 field development.
I have purchased LOGP shares as they represent an extra ordinary low risk high reward opportunity.
I have changed my view on barryroe because the new data requires it.
Here is a brief report of the LOGP AGM which I attended yesterday:
1/ Shareholder attendance was fairly light in line with the trend in recent years.
2/ All resoutions were passed on a show of hands. It is worth noting that 90% of the proxy voters also voted in favour, so I think we can take that as a signal that the institutional investors are still backing the management team and the Barryroe project up to the hilt
3/ There was a very favourable response to the request for quotations for supply of a drilling rig with very low prices being quoted coming forward into 2018 and 2019.
4/ There is a firm intention to drill Barryroe in 2018.
5/ The current plan is to drill one well which will be both an appraisal and a production well. I assume that the optional second well is probably there as a standard contingency or in the event that a farminee with deep pockets may wish to do further exploration drilling, though I did not press SB on this point.
6/ The planned well will target the existing discovered resource with a view to fast tracking production and getting some positive cash flow rather than further exploration of the deeper prospects at this time.
7/ All options are open with regards to project financing including:
A joint farmout with PVR
A separate farmout of part of LOGP 20% stake
An issue of further equity...possibly a rights issue to maintain the 20% stake.
8/ There is no progress to report at present on the MFDEVCO licencing deal re Helvick.
9/ While everyone regretted the lack of success which PVR incurred at Druid / Drombeg, the general feeling was that the silver lining was... an increased focus on getting Barryroe over the line by PVR management.
Finally, my general impression was that the board are by no means despondent about the company's future
prospects and remain very positive regarding Barryroe.
I believe this to be a fair and accurate report of the key poinst. If anybody else has any further comments that would also be most welcome. Obviously this is not at the present time a "get rich quick" share, given the timescales involved, however I was sufficiently satisfied to continue to hold my present shares and will probably add a little further down the line. Good luck all!
Something must have been said at the AGM to warrant the share price.
There is one contributor on LSE who says he is attending and will report back.
As mentioned, it cannot be the potential well on Barryroe as Lansdowne does not have the money for its share. Perhaps there was mention of a takeover.
San Leon, the other entity in Barryroe came back from suspension and dropped like stone. I note there was mention yesterday of them needing to raise a loan of $20m to pay the fines it has with Avabone. An alternative would be that they sell out their share in Barryroe cheaply.
I note they have accumulated all the expenses for the year into a single figure without breaking it down into its components.
So, the expenses come to £665,000 and usually there is a note breaking that down into its components but they have deliberately passed over that.
You can be sure a big percentage of that figure is still Boldy's salary so I think we should email him demanding that he reveal it.
After all, other than Barryroe, as they rightly point out, they have nothing left so, rather than wait on Providence to get a deal, why don't they just sell it. I am sure if Boldy's salary was say£50k which is more than he is worth for doing nothing, they would hurry up and do it.
According to the RNS dated 17/6/16 the then amount outstanding on the loan note was £1,545,552. It will be higher now because of the 5% per annum interest charge (it was reduced from the original 10%).
Last year LC Capital Master Fund converted £930,000 of the loan into shares priced at 1p (see RNS dated 17/6/16). Could they agree to convert more of the outstanding loan when it expires on June 30th and will it be at less than a 1p per share this time? It that the reason behind the fall in the sp?
Since they have no revenue LOGP will need to raise cash to pay expenses and BoD salaries and fees. Will a conversion of some of the loan into shares be the solution as it was last year?
To raise more money they have to tell a good story.
They were able to raise money last year because of the Transocean fiasco but what story are they going to tell this time when all they have is 20% of Barryroe and a "gifted" 10% of Helvick from Providence that will not be developed for years to come, if ever.
As I have stated elsewhere, Boldy earned £243,000 in 2015 which included £48,000 as a performance related bonus (What did he do for that?) for doing nothing and I notice they did not identify how much he earned in first six months 2016 but you can be sure it is pro rata.
And what have they done for their money? Nothing because they have nothing to do but fleece the shareholders.
I hope they have an AGM because the shareholders should vote this lot out. After all, we all like value for money but ripping off the shareholders is not the basis for earning "performance based bonuses".
Sad to see this go down. More pain to come with another cash call imminently. On the flipside I tend to always get my fantasy short call wrong... but this time I dont see LOGP getting out of this without more dilution at a discount.
Look at Providence today. For the last few days the share price has been falling and yet today they announce a major investment by Total in the Druid/Drombeg well to the tune of $27m for the option to buy in, most of which will be paid in the next ten days.
It is possible that Lansdowne are due to put out their 2016 accounts which have to be published by the end of the month and without a Barryroe deal they will make painful reading.
My take on Lansdowne is that even if no deal is done on Barryroe in the short term there has to be a value in their 20% holding in Barryroe and it has surely, even in a fire sale, got to be worth a certain multiple of £5m the current share price value of the company.
As for the drop in price, in a share traded at 1p the price change is huge but in the real world it is peanuts. After all, you could buy 3.3m shares for £33k at 1p each and if you sell at that price it can possibly scare people into selling which are then bought up by the "wide" boys.
It is easier to manipulate the market when the share price is this low rather than when the share price is in the £ range. After all, .1p is 10% here whereas in a £1 a share it is 1%.
Big bucks have been made in the past with penny shares. Here's hoping.
While the SeaEnergy move was good for Lansdowne there are a few other things about Lansdowne that make them interesting.
The first is that Lansdowne is protected from liquidation by its holding in Barryroe. If it was to get into financial trouble before a farm-out it is clear it has enough value in Barryroe to satisfy its current share price and probably a price up to 5p. After all, even in a fire sale, Lansdowne's 20% in Barryroe is worth far more than £30m.
To show that Lansdowne, at its current price, is undervalued you only need to check out
There you will see that 4 major shareholders hold over 50% of the equity with LC Capital Master Fund Ltd holding over 27% alone. Are all of these charity cases? Definitely not.
So, at some point Barryroe will come into focus and the share price will reflect more of its value than it does at present.
And just to discount that there is anything wrong with Barryroe you have only got to check out Mott MacDonald, the major consultancy firm, who did the Barryroe feasibility study in 2013 and who still have it on their website to know that they would not have it there if there was anything wrong.
Go to the following link and page down to where you see under Projects "Barryroe" and you can read what they did for Lansdowne and Providence and since it is still there, nothing has changed in the meantime.
Remember Davy based their original price on a Phase 1 development of 70m barrels, a far cry from the 349m barrels in Barryroe.
The estimate is that Providence share price could be as high as £1.75 which would mean Lansdowne could be priced at about 40p.
After all, the oil has not gone away and in the heady days after the discovery Lansdowne shares were trading ahead of that.
All we need is a farm-in to Barryroe with a mix of money and development. If that happens both Providence and Lansdowne will be multiples of what they are today. The only reason they are not at decent levels at the moment is that we have heard so much bluster from O'Reilly over the years that "seeing is believing". Short of that both shares will continue to flounder.
With the recovery in the POO this begins to look like it may have a chance of survival. I am invested with an average 10p share price so will take a miracle to recover my investment. Wonder what happened to the SEA ENERGY stake? Was it sold off or still held by the administrators?
Perhaps some previous FO interest has resurfaced too!
The last bit of dirty dealing with Transocean has now been cleared.
It is a disgrace that they have to pay Transocean's costs even if they are highly discounted. After all, Mr Justice Popplewell, was overruled by the Supreme Court in his original judgement on a mere verbal technicality which resulted in these costs being paid to Transocean even though Popplewell had said originally that Transocean were actually a bag of thieves.
Now, perhaps Providence can get on and farm-out Barryroe which has obviously been held up pending this decision.
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