I expect Results to be out early next week.
As for EPS, I think we can look for somewhere between 13p and 14p.
Should also the outlook for 2018 be robust, then, almost inevitably, the
share price could easily head for 190p-plus. Fingers crossed.
Winning streak. I would point out that as well as the main board directors they have 4 divisional directors, thats maybe a bit on the heavy side,time for a shake up and let some new blood in.
See their website.
The board own a fair chunk of shares. That's good but also puts us in a weaker position if we are sold by them.
Its always been a worry that we are sold before we get to a fair point in the cycle.
With the investments made and the orders in the pipeline we should be getting close to 3 million in the next 2 years.
So if a predator comes to take this to a bigger group what price would they pay?
As a buyer I want to give 6/10 times but I feel we should attract 12/15 times.
The shares are backed by real assets over 10 million so about 50% of the market cap.
If we were to be sold this year based on profits of 2m and 12x earnings plus assets I get us to 35m or about 320p a share.
As you know I am in DART and asked MEESON who owns 38% what his exit route was as he is knocking on a bit. He was far from happy. ( however he did pay for lunch later)
So the BOD may want to grow this further.
The one thing I am pretty sure about is that the shares look undervalued and there is a fast buck to be made here.
We are still below the peak of 200p so a move there would be the least I expect.
Castleford you are the expert here, with 4 of the 5 directors over 65 and at least one 73 and a large shareholder it seems to me that there is a very good chance of takeover coming for the company as these guys will want to retire with some cash soon.
IF the update, due shortly, provides the expected continuing good news and gives the boost to the shareprice I think it will This could be on the cards shortly this year.
Whats your view?
Comments from last update
"LPA Group Plc, the LED lighting and electro-mechanical system manufacturer and distributor, is pleased to provide the following trading update for the financial year ended 30th September 2017.
Further to the Chairman's Statement issued with the interim results on 26 June 2017 which confirmed that the Group had established itself on a new trading level, output during the second half was at record levels and, given the volume of deliverable orders on hand, this is likely to be sustained during the new financial year. Margins, which had been depressed by an unfavourable product mix in the first half, responded well to higher volumes and manufacturing efficiencies have improved significantly. Expectations for the year just closed anticipated significant progress and the Board believes it has delivered on this.
The new lighting facility in Yorkshire and the electro-mechanical facility in Saffron Walden, both achieved record levels of output, challenging the increased capacity recently created and further investment in plant and equipment is planned.
The UK market has been buoyant, looks well set for the future and is well supported by export opportunities in Europe, Asia and Australia.
The Group remains very confident of further progress in the current year."
Share price since then has hardly moved so I am anticipating that the market will be surprised when results come out around 21 January.
Also, this announcement was very bullish from a company that normaly is very modest in its oulook so better than expected results could well be in the offing which could lead to a rerating..
Results due out shortly from LPA which should be v good and I expect that the business is continuing on its growth path, currently share price is too low and does not reflect value.
Price has dropped from high at beginning of year however I expect it to al least reach 200p on results. Not long to wait
Last year we had a trading update on September 27th but nothing , as far as I can see, this year which is of concern. There is so little news about LPA that trading could have been very good or very bad. Does anyone have any knowledge on this, please?
Recent developments in all of the above are starting to reflect in the SP of LPA rising
New faster rail lines = New Trains and New carriages
HS2 looks like a done deal at long last
Now HS3 for the North is getting talked about , and perhaps stands a good chance of getting the nod from May to signal that England is getting prepared to do battle for its share of the EU cake after Brexit
Maynard: HS2 will not deliver full potential unless east-west links improved
Maynard: HS2 will not deliver full potential unless east-west links improved
Rail minister Paul Maynard has reiterated that HS2s full potential will not be fully delivered unless east-west rail links are properly improved as well, despite recent claims that plans for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NRP), or HS3, have gone down the governments priority list.
British shipyards are now making bigger modular ships that can be welded together to make a ship as big as those made in Korea or Japan, orders have and are being placed by the UK Government
UK shipyards: Five frigates at centre of new strategy
6 September 2017
HMS Queen Elizabeth was built in blocks across six cities before being assembled in Rosyth
A new national shipbuilding strategy intended to benefit UK shipyards is being unveiled by Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon.
The government plans to buy at least five frigates, and share the work between shipyards around the UK. The first batch of new Type 31e frigates will bolster a depleted Royal Navy fleet, but it is hoped future ships will be bought by foreign navies.
It comes as the Ministry of Defence aims to save billions of pounds.
The new frigates would be built across different shipyards, but assembled at a central site, and ready for service by 2023.
Their cost would be capped at £250m each.
The strikes over the driver only operated trains seem to be getting worse as the unions get more entrenched in their position against them in many areas of the country.
Such actions seem to be hitting the share prices of all train operators, so when I read this it makes me wonder about the government commitment to the Rail Industry , Mr Grayling does not inspire confidence.As a result a resurgent Labour party is using the Rail Industry problems by backing ASLEF to cause trouble.
Key rail projects are being shelved to fund DUP deal, MP Judith Cummins claims during Prime
A BRADFORD MP has accused the Government of sacrificing transport improvements in the North to pay for its controversial deal with the DUP.
The minority Conservative Government last month struck a £1bn deal with the Democratic Unionists to secure their backing in key votes.
Now Judith Cummins, Labour MP for Bradford South, has spoken out over speculation that Transport Secretary Chris Grayling plans to further delay the long-awaited electrification of the TransPennine rail route.
Speaking during Prime Minister's Questions today, she said: "We have had two general elections where the Government have promised investment in the northern powerhouse, and yet again, within weeks, they have U-turned on the TransPennine electrification.
"Is the £1bn deal with the DUP to keep the Prime Minister in power being funded at the expense of investment in Bradford and the north?"
biswell do you have a position here or were you looking to get involved?
I view it like this.
I see Directors having their money on the table as a GOOD thing.
I see a company with a market cap of 16 million this morning that has a Asset position of 9.7 million.
These are not goodwill etc assets but real things like property etc that makes up 70% of that position.
Asset growth over the year was strong.
Looking at timings etc on deliveries can increase unsold goods but the amounts do fluctuate.
I see nothing of concern and the steady first half was well flagged up.
What you have to do is look at the current position and we are 3 months into that period.
Things are unwinding and there will be growth in the second half and into the full next year which has lead to an increase in forecasts.
In my opinion now is the time to invest rather than sell out ,but I have always gone the other route.
H1 revenue of £10.8m was bang in line with Aprils trading update with a flat-ish PBT of £750k down to the previously flagged reduction in H1 margin. the out-turn is said to have exceeded managements internal budget and was a function of product mix (more lower-margin project work), reduced aerospace/ defence business and the loss of an oil and gas customer to administration.
All three of these factors can be expected to reverse in H2 with the net result that FY expectations are unchanged. However, the continued strength of the order book at £22m gives greater confidence that FY18E numbers need to be revised up..
I think profit before tax will grow at least 10% following a 5% increase in Rev.
The house broker retains a buy and a 200p target.
So my advice is rather than sell you should look at this again.
The fall in profit pre exc was less than 10k. Did anyone comment that tax to pay was down?
The slightly lower margin mix was flagged up in March and the first 6 months were spent moving lighting so that causes disruption.
My target for the year of 1.6 m to 1.8 remains plus the excp gain which after spending 100k is now only 200k.
I expect EPS to be ahead of last year at approx. 13/14p.
A company with some brand new assets and now some capacity to grow into , a strong order book , and very little debt looks cheap at 10 x earnings.
I think a baser is formed from us to kick on to.
The dividend alone is worth having without capital growth. I have bought two further 5000 lots on todays soft market.
The market is not happy and nor am I. Despite the company seemingly in a sweet spot with rail and gaining from sterling weakness, the underlying business went backwards. I have stuck with LPA for a long time, comforted by Tiger's enthusiasm, but reduced holdings early to-day when I read the results. Management needs a shake up I feel and company in a weak position if there is a downturn
-- Revenue increased 3.1% to GBP10.81m (2016: GBP10.48m)
-- Operating profit before exceptional items GBP772,000 (2016: GBP782,000)
-- Net exceptional gain GBP226,000 (2016: GBP14,000)
-- Profit before tax increased to GBP976,000 (2016: GBP782,000)
-- Diluted earnings per share substantially increased to 6.81p (2016: 5.34p)
-- Interim dividend increased 5.0% to 1.05p (2016: 1.00p)
-- Order entry increased 7.7% to GBP14.85m (2016: GBP13.78m)
-- Order book stands at GBP22m (2016: GBP22m)
-- Lighting operation successfully relocated in the period
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