the very good news in today's RNS is that the board still expect NAV to be between 30p to 35p,
> 10p will be recvied within 3 months
and porbably a further 5p+ in the next 3 months
so buying today is really only risking 7p of capital
the true value of that 7p might be close to zero or as high as 20p and no real way of telling fo rme.
the other point of interest was the board confimring tha the share price fall was impact by illiquidity whihc is evident from daily volumes. I think this means that current holders will not sell.. why sell at such a discount , one might as well hang in til the end and at least then the discount 9to whatever value) will be eliminated.
so the price is determined by the confidence, or lack thereof between smaller investors....
that is fine but my point being that this price point is not related to the true value of the company and that the true value will be known within 15 mths.
so , to me, the logic of this , that that the private investor - disillusioned with the recetn history is likely a seller and thus the share price is likely to disproportiomnately discount the true risk reward ratio.
Today's announcement brings a successful conclusion to the sale of Rushden Lakes Phase 2 a little nearer and whilst the caveats set out in my statement of 21 November 2016 remain, the Board has no reason to believe that in excess of the NAV of 38.7 p per share is an unrealistic aim."
Just checked up on what we can expect here and looking at final results statement in November the chairman said that despite the market the asset value will be in excess of that in the results which was 56p
So at 56p that would be a gain in excess of 40% from todays price-so worth hanging on in my view even 20% would be fine for me.
Sold out yesterday at 37.odd pence yesterday (an IT glitch means can't give exact price but limited 37p)
While there may still be 10% upside, the momentum has swung from the trend and likelihood of exceeding NAV to 50:50 uncertainty either way in my view.
I have had decent payouts over the duration since I bought in but now see the balance of opportunity elsewhere.........although still holding proceeds as cash until have a clearer picture as to whether to top up a couple of existing holdings or initiate a new one......perhaps thinks will be sightly less murky depending on the autumn statement and whether PH does actually promote infrastructure or the status quo is maintained there.
GLA current holders. I hope you get a nice surprise but I didn't want to hold my breath.
What i meant to say was that as they had provided for the dividends (see creditor notes and movement on reserves) the nav was after the divi. When they pay the divi the cash goes down but so does the liability...no change to nav. Thats my reading and why i hink it is trading at a discount to nav
Whether it was a divi or not is, I believe, irrelevant. The net assets at Sept were 56p....that is properties, cash, (future divis or otherwise,) pencil sharpeners etc.
The 18p was paid out at the beginning of Nov when we were looking at NAV of about 68p immediately prior to the distribution (depending on your broker this could have been deemed divi or return of capital), giving a remaining 49 -50p of assets once the 18p was paid.
Todays situation indicates NAV 56p PRIOR to the divi being distributed, so around 38p now. This share is being priced as near as can be to NAV. The only surprises will be like today where the NAV is different to the widely held expectation. That is why I say that the directors actions over the remainder of this week will be very telling as they will have an idea whether or not they are likely to be able to squeeze a bit more out (and this statement today is accurate but cautious), or whether todays statement is a full and accurate exception of the likely outcome.
If they buy (reasonably heavily) then we can be optimistic, if not, move on.
Sorry, should have also said it will be interesting to note if there is any substantial director buying in the coming days. If they do then sentiment could be bolstered significantly. lack of buying , given their previous enthusiasm, would be quite negative
The way I see this:
I wish I'd sold on Friday
The NAV is still way in excess of the share price, but...
The timescale has slipped a bit and it won't be a clean wind-up as there will be a Newco carrying smaller remaining assets and liabilities for some time - the disclosure of this does provoke some suspicions and concern
If I could get out at a price closer to NAV I would.
Well not good news this morning but probably one should have expected a bit of a downturn after Brexit.
Still its all to play for, the net assset value is still 56.7p with the board saying that " your Board remains confident that the final figure will be in excess of the NAV reported today."
This would indicate a value of 60p plus-so in my view I am holding on to my shares and not selling at todays price as this would give a 50% upside from here.
The directors also have a lot riding on this with their large shareholding.
I tend to agree with this-in fact you might argue its a good time to buy.
Forgive my naivety but I've been given two options by my broker, to receive 18p per share as income, or as 'B shares'.
I don't understand this. Obviously I get the income bit, but what are the 'B shares'? Does this mean the money is reinvested back into the shares? I'm assuming that would basically mean it is worth effectively the same as before, with a lower share price but larger number of shares? The benefit of this being that should the value of the company's assets increase before they are also sold off and returned to us as cash I will be better off in the long run, likewise if they were to devalue at all I would have been better off taking the income option. If this is the case what price are the B shares bought back at? 50p or the SP at the time?
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