Graham Mascall the ex-ceo of nccl upon inspecting Stratas (Michael Haworth) acquisition of what is now the Ncondezi project famously (to nerds like me)said to Haworth youve got a tiger by the tail. And he should know, having been involved in many successful mining projects over the years. Funnily enough GM was at one time in charge of Caledon Resources as was Mark Trevan, which was eventually bought out by GRAM - a large Chinese state enterprise. That was a very profitable conclusion to a long drawn out process, but they got there in the end and all the indications are that here too will be a mighty success, eventually, in what is a much bigger and more complicated project. What comes next, if the team can pull it off is the end of the beginning and the start of a new chapter for Ncondezi.
Mascall says that the Ncondezi coal licenses in Mozambique were originally acquired by a venture capital fund called Strata Limited back in 2007. Strata spent between $3-$4 million dollars on two phases of further exploration which completed late in 2009, providing the basis for the Ncondezi Company to get its weighty JORC resource statement in place today. In the middle of last year, Strata who are a small team using consultants to do the work and carry out the drilling on the project at the time, recognised that they had a significant coal resource and asked me to go and have a look and give a recommendation, Mascall recalls. I said youve got a tiger by the taila large coal resource in the right location [near] Vales Moatize and Riversdales Benga, you need to get some additional management on board. Strata then asked Mascall to become CEO and put a team together to move the project on, and the rest is history.
Delay causing/excusing the obvious shake out. Though much less venomous than is normal which could be a sign of strength. I backed up the truck at 4p but the goods weren't delivered. FWIW the chart still looks bullish.
Possible short term targets. Not sure how well suited charting this way is for such a stock, but this is how it looks regardless. The patterns seem to converge well with areas where buyers were probably trapped and could be waiting to escape. Still, I expect in the end there'll be much more new investment entering than old investors cashing in as the business grows and the story develops.
Positive action today but really its just sideliners jumping in with the fomo trade. They can just as easily jump back out if someone goes boo sending the sp back from whence it came. For me though it matters not (unless Im adding) since Im not about to cash in. What matters here (to me) is where Hanno et al are taking nccl and its shareholders. With any luck well reach the next milestone shortly and then we can look past the signature moment and get a clearer idea of the next destination. The story here is great , of course, but Im holding on the premise that the management know what they are doing and that they have my back as a shareholder - rare combo in the cesspit and a ticket greatness. As ever time will tell and you need plenty of that with Ncondezi.
· AFC Committing up to US$3.0 million in addition to the Existing Shareholder Loan provided by other parties and announced in May 2016 in two tranches:
o Tranche A for a total of US$1.0 million on the same terms as the Existing Shareholder Loan to be repayable on 10 May 2017
o Tranche B is a conditional US$2.0 million loan with a 24 month term from first drawdown subject to certain conditions, including the completion of the JDA with SEP and Ncondezi providing an appropriate security package
· Repayment terms of the Existing Shareholder Loan amended to now be repayable on 10 May 2017
· New Shareholder Loan provides conditional funding to reach Financial Close on the mine and power plant following the expected completion of the SEP JDA later this year
· UAE holding company structure for the power plant completed
Thanks for the informative link. I suspect the Chinese put a moratorium on all UK linked company investments until the fallout from brexit became clear but their money won't be coming to the uk so I can't see any issues with its dilution post Brexit. Looking positive!
"Ncondezi is the most advanced junior coal-to-power developer on AIM. The company has set out a timeline to closure of a financing deal with strategic partner Shanghai Electric Power which, if successful, will unlock upside to its look-through value of $52m."
Exciting times for national council for civil liberties!?,with May virtually upon us and the mozambiquan govt.announcing that they want to eradicate any red tape that stops international investment, nccl should be looking at a promising horizon. Enjoy the bank holiday
Basically then, Ncondezi Energy owns 100% of the Ncondezi Project which is strategically located in the power generating
hub of the country, the Tete Province in northern Mozambique. The Company is developing an integrated
thermal coal mine and power plant in phases of 300MW up to 1,800MW. The first 300MW phase is targeting
domestic consumption in Mozambique using reinforced existing transmission capacity to meet current
SEP funds the project and keeps 60% while Nocndezi keeps 40% and then gets paid the following to cover costs to date and some profit.....
We also get to keep the opencast mine in its entirety..
The SEP Subscription Price is based on 1.5 times Ncondezis historic Power Project costs of US$17 million
and is capped at US$25.5 million. The Subscription Price will be inclusive of SEPs historic costs of RMB 8
Million (c. $1.25 million). All historic costs are subject to confirmation by an independent auditor.
Also the plant is only the first 300 MW of power,with another 1500MW to follow at some stage...To take it to 1800MW in total.
If they can cut more deals like this we are definitely looking at a monster company going forward with a cracking one now. Roll on February when this is all finalized..
Yes thats true, You can see the 50000 10000 etc trades they are usually shorts or longs presumably. Interesting to see just how quickly this shoots up on real buys.
It will probably end up back where it started today around 7p+.
This is some deal and its only for one pant of 300MW with 1800MW the company target going forward.
It sees the comapny financially sound with plenty left on the table..
Nothing unusual about it for me. Just the usual shiite. Lots of profit to be taken. Shares just transferring hands. Some get in too high and get out low. Others will sell high and buy back low maybe from those they sold to. I don't know about shorters I suppose if they are bold enough but seems high risk for that. Buy on dips seems like a good strategy all things considered.
Power Plant Project Economics
Indicative non-binding bids from engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors, received in June 2013, for the construction and commissioning of the 300MW power plant, have given the Company sufficient comfort on the power plant economics. Estimated annual revenues are over US$200 million per annum with average EBITDA margins over 50%. The Company is targeting a nominal equity IRR of between 18%-20%, which the Directors believe will give an estimated power plant NPV at financial close of in excess of US$200 million and estimated net equity cash flows of in excess of US$2 billion over the life of the power plant. These estimates are based on a debt to equity ratio of 70:30 and a nominal post tax WACC of 12%.
This all makes very interesting reading for such a low share price.. Buying more..
Four EPC firms have submitted fixed price lump sum turnkey contracts, the winning EPC bid will be announced in Q3 2014. The binding bid will play a key role in completing the Power Purchase Agreement negotiations, which are expected to be finalised during Q3 2014, as the recovery of the final binding capital cost will be included in the tariff rate agreed with EdM, the state owned utility company.
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