These are a set of very good results in virtually all parts of the group. I am delighted to see my confidence rewarded by the surge in the sp this morning and I believe there is more to come. Depending on the full year outturn and dividend, I think that 400p is a realistic target.
You are right, these shares are very good value. There is strong well focused management which has wisely withdrawn from bidding for any more UK rail franchises and is making a great success of its North American and European businesses. Spain in particular is very strong, mainly I think because the family bus business that NEX bought there some years back is still run by the family who became substantial NEX shareholders as a result of the acquisition. Indeed I believe they have a director on the Board. I am surprised that the shares have not risen but they will for sure imho.
EPS up 18%, dividend up 10%. NEX has been reporting consistently good results for the last 4 years now. With a yield over 3% and a fairly modest P/E ration they are stonking good value and should be strongly recession proof when the inevitable downturn finally hits.
"Investec has upgraded National Express to 'buy' from 'hold' and hiked the price target to 385p from 335p.
The brokerage said it is turning positive to reflect higher expectations from Alsa, increasing capital allocation to more attractive international markets, particularly North America and Germany, and FX tailwinds.
Investec said it had previously failed to reflect the consistent level of acquisitions in its valuation and the scope to redeploy capital from the challenging UK market.
It said the company's full-year 2016 results were better than it expected at almost every level, due mostly to the outperformance of Alsa, acquisitions and FX.
"Specifically, we had anticipated that Alsa would lose market share in Spain and that the routes that were retained would see margin erosion. This has not materialised, with routes retained at attractive margins, resulting in a margin of 14.2% compared to our 13.2%."
The performance in North America was also better than Investec expected, mostly thanks to FX but also as eight acquisitions added 1,110 school buses and 450 transit vehicles."
I noticed there were no exceptional items in the final report. This is very unusual for NEX. In the past they have classified bid costs for rail contracts - amounting to several £m- as exceptional costs, which seemd somehwat dubious since it's part of running the business.
So that leads me to think NEX is being open and transparanet in its accounts, more so than before. Dfinitely a reason to invest. I added some recently, may well add more.
Excellent results from an excellent company, I think. Well balanced portfolio and focus on international activities and operational excellence paying off. Div could have been increased a bit more but happy that funds are reinvested in growth. Shares have performed well over the year and should continue upwards.
An added attraction to NEX is the probable benefit from their substantial exposure to the US $ and the Euro. Spain alone is a substantial operation and the US bus business seems to be performing well. An attractive share on all fronts I think and hope, having just bought a few more.
Read Beaufort Securities's note on NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC (NEX) out this morning, by visiting https://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0006215205
"National Express traded well for the first four months in 2016, with improvement in revenue and passenger numbers across business regions. The company's established businesses continue to grow, and its new markets including Germany and Bahrain are already carrying millions of passengers. The company seems to have struck the right mix of innovation, partnership and customer service as evident from the full-year profit and cash flow expectations. The company upholds..."
I have held shares in National Express for many years including the bad times of being disfranchised. It has always been a company that should be doing better which is why I held on. Now I believe it has become a very well managed group that has been successful in some very competitive markets and, most importantly, managing to trade profitably whilst operating safely and efficiently. I now think that its achievements are not fully understood and the shares are underrated as a consequence. For a company of this size, there are very few discussions or opinions being posted and I suspect that, like me, there have been many shareholders .who have hunkered down to see what emerged and whether the improvements were sustainable. Despite the recent relative strength in the sp. I envisage further growth in profits and the sp. My only concern is whether the wide geographical spread can be managed adequately and I would be worried if the CEO were to leave. Am adding to my holding.
"Starting the year with a bang, LSE:NEX:National Express spent the first six months of 2015 in the fast lane. The coach company maintained earnings growth and bidding momentum over the last quarter and its the FTSE 350's top performer this week as ..."
"National Express (LSE:NEX) , famous for one of the best song lyrics of all time **, is starting to become vaguely interesting for the longer term too. In the event of the price now CLOSING above just 292p, it ticks the final box in an argument ..."
Call me a commie if you want, but I personally am heartened to know my dividend cheque (from next year) isn't at the expense of some poor Brummy bus driver who dioesn't bring home enough wonga to feed her kids.
Stuck at 250 - 255, hugely underperformed other transport groups. Can only assume it's down to their business mix, having a high exposure to Spain (which since I live here I can assure you has hardly recovered at all, regardless of what their 10 year bond yield implies), and US. In fact UK bus is only 15% of revenue. Maybe the markets are pricing in European macro-economic risks.
I agree with your comment that when the shares go down you "shower yourself in doubt". I was seriously considering topping up, but I couldn't help windering if someone out there knew something I didn't. Although aspersions have been cast here on the strength of NEX's balance sheet, they seem to be profitable and cash generative. Retaining the C2C franchise is a plus, I like the innovative passenger's charter which may well have been a factor.
the two huge O trades yesterday afternoon wouldn´t have anything to do with today´s announcement I suppose? will someone please put my mind at ease and tell me these were not fraudulent deals by someone with knowledge.
back down to 250p finally and as always happens when a stock falls to the price you have been waiting for, you shower yourself in doubt. I look at the charts and see that since January NEX is down 30% whereas GOG is up 10%. A forward yield of 3.9% v 3.5% and a PE of 11.3 v 16.1. What has gone wrong here? Both have negative assets if you exclude intangeables, both have high debt which seems typical for this sector. Is it the worry of the impact of higher UK interest rates? This is a low volume traded share though there was a spike of sells yesterday, still less than 0.5% though.
"LSE:NEX:National Express Group was hit by snow days in its yellow school bus business in the US, but growth in its UK coach business kept it on track.Additional coaches laid on between Cornwall and London after the coastal rail track at Dawlish, ..."
has got to bounce back soon.........after buying last year at 170 and selling at 230 I have been waiting for ages to get back in for a decent yield, 250p would be nice for 4% but not sure it will happen. Down 10% on its peak SP, then again GS has done that in considerably less time.
Yes, the recent move has been weird. I don't know what to do as I decided to start buying late July (about the time you got out). It wasn't based on financials, at all, I'm afraid to say. Over the summer I used their services several times (as I've done the last seven/eight summers, short and long distance as I don't live here most of the year) and it was very noticeably improved.
And when I say 'used' I mean I used their long-distance and airport - airport coach, lost property (my fault entirely), customer services (email and telephone) and feedback/helpline services. I can't fault their staff and service, especially at the prices they charge, in comparison to the trains or airlines.
But you have concentrated the mind; I think I should wait for a pullback before buying any more. Maybe it would be cheaper to join a fanclub, ha ha.
4 months isn't much of a period to judge a share performance unless you're a trader or just gambling. I sold at 250p. It has now recovered to a 4 year high which is bizarre considering eps is forecast to fall for this year and remain flat for 2014 with debt surging. I'm happy to remain on the sidelines.for now.
Well contrary to expectations the sp continues to surge with absurdly positive spin from Chairrman despite obviously poor fundamentals and financials last time around. Recent latest statement (July 2) is even more glowing. We'll see when they release their interim on 24 July how well they really have done, but I remain sceptical. Meanwhile enjoy the sp rise while it lasts.
boring is good in this market.........i was just looking at the chart versus GOG when the update came up, spooky. On a forward PE of 9.5 v GOG on 11.5, with yields of 4.8 v 5.3 approx, can´t figure the difference personally, NEX should be closer to 230 certainly, now the stock overhang is cleared with the sale at 215. Mind you, look at the BLND share sale at 5.50, which i figured would be a restrictionn on the stock so i sold, they are now over 6 quid.
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