What is primarily noticeable about todays results is the downgrading of the future production schedule. A look back at the 2016 annual report shows expected 2018 production of 50-80k bpd, 2019 80-100k, 2020 100k. Now the expectations are much lower:
Based on the current drilling programme stated above and taking into account the current oil price, we can provide the following production guidance. Should oil prices deviate materially, the production guidance will be updated accordingly:
· 2018 - Management estimates production will be flat over the year at around 37,000 boepd, taking into account the time it will take (three months) to bring the two new production wells currently being drilled online, in addition to the three-week shutdown required to link GTU1&2 to GTU3 in Q2 2018
· 2019 - Ryder Scott guidance assumes average production of 56,087 boepd
· 2020 - Ryder Scott guidance assumes average production of 68,211 boepd
· 2021 - Increasing the rig count to six at the field site to build production towards filling capacity beyond 2021
GTU3 should be completed next month and give NOG the capacity to produce 100,000 bpd, but the company will not be utilising that full capacity. No explanation for the downgrade in expected production profile as far as I can see. Disappointing.
This seems to be an annual occurrence. I have topped up at £3. In the year since I last posted about "a bad few days" there have been a total of 3 posts on this BB. Hope the lack of interest is a good sign. Last year I sold out at £4.8 before buying back in at a start of £3.70. Hope to repeat.
" After three years of hard graft, LSE:NOG:Nostrum Oil & Gas is finally close to finishing work on its gas treatment facility in north Kazakhstan. With production and cash flow set to surge, the FTSE 250 newbie could become one of the largest ..."
Read FirstEnergy Capital's note on NOSTRUM OIL & GAS, out this morning, by visiting https://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00BGP6Q951
"Nostrum reported production over the period of 38,754 boe/d given one week of maintenance at the end of March (FCCe: 41 mboe/d). 1Q16 Revenue was US$70 mm (FCCe: US$79 mm) with Net Debt at the end of the period of US$820 mm (FCCe: US$814 mm). GTU3 is progressing for completion in 2017. FY16 Production Guidance remains 40 mboe/d with 40-60 mboe/d in 2017 (FCCe: 40 mboe/d), 60-90 mboe/d in 2018 (FCCe: 60 mboe/d) and 90-100 mboe/d in 2019 (FCCe: 98 mboe/d). New production wells will be drilled during 2Q16 and the Company plans to complete the negotiations to open up the possibility to transport the crude oil through the KTO pipeline and reduce further crude oil transport costs. The Capex for 2017 associated with the GTU has been reduced from US$80 mm to US$62 mm reflecting a timing effect (no change to the overall GTU Capex)...."
Given significant hedges, Nostrum believes it could maintain a cash balance of c. US$50 mm until YE17 (when the GTU 3 is completed) under any oil price. Under our more conservative assumption, we see a potential risk of a small shortfall of US$50 mm to maintain adequate cash on the Balance sheet and deliver the indicative drilling programme. We do not think that this is a major issue given that the Company could reduce its drilling capex accordingly. Otherwise, the Company should be able to secure such a relatively small amount on similar term as the VTB offers without major difficulties. While with higher capex and lower production the risk profile of the firm is not as good as we thought, it is still superior to many highly leverage peers.
Full note at www.research-tree.com
never heard of Nostrum until their aborted bid for Tethys last year, but have followed since then. SP has been slow to bounce back in comparison to others, looks good for a run-up to over 300p in the next few weeks to me.
* Bookmark the links if you wish to 'pass the LINK/s on'.... or read later?
* The Campaign is specialized among the investing fraternity only. The population as a whole would hardly vote for a ban on shorting...most people have never heard of it, have they?
Whereas, the other Govt epetitions command votes from the *general population..and if you check, NONE are doing better than a handful of votes !
Deramping SHORTERS !
Shorting a rising stock....is much worse when it is done by your resident posters that seemingly are your buddies and convince 'long' holders to give up!
What many pi's fail to grasp is the extent that shorting is taking place. Often we tend to think that the 'shorter' is gone, 'he' is out of the way? You'd be wrong in most cases, for ( he ), the shorter, is often joined by others that keep the stock down !
Some stocks fall after GOOD NEWS!
The main reason for many pi's selling, is they are afraid they'll be left in losses AND because they FEAR shorters !
Consolidating shares often sees the sp fall as the *multi-bagger potential is greatly reduced. Shorters know this and will take full advantage to get 'longs' to give up and sell !
BUT, where does that leave the genuine investor that has put stocks into their pension funds?...holding losses again!
* Once pi's know the stock is being shorted...they'll SELL UP IN THEIR DROVES !
We can't both WIN !
The 'shorts' therefore 'win' their bets, whereas the 'longs' lose the best part of their investment, possibly for some time to come......and just when you thought this couldn't go any lower, THEY'LL SHORT THE STOCK AGAIN !
* Thanks for all your support. We are now heading towards 5,000 votes!
* Investors are saying something? They are voting in their hundreds !
# The big problem with shorting is that THEY (the shorters) WOULD most likely lose most of their money IF they just 'bet' on the price going down without trying to 'help' it down?
'Catch 22' .... No one would know of an RNS to be released that will contain BAD NEWS, if they did and then 'shorted' the stock, then they are guilty of 'insider trading'.
The only sure way to short a stock and WIN is to spread dis-information to defame the company with help from other posters that are in concert with them. To ENSURE that they don't lose the biggest part of their 'short', ironically, then, they must deramp with (seemingly) believable posts.
* When the pro's do it, they simply get the media or well known 'crooked' tipsters, analysts or brokers to do it for them. (say no more).
# The campaign against shorting is for the benefit of the 'cheated' investors that cannot control their investments due to the dirty tricks played out by co-ordinated shorting !
The results will be reviewed by Govt legislators for further action! The FCA will be asked by Davide Serra to conduct an investigation into short selling practices, with the view to either ban short selling, or to be better regulated !
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