"Oracle to retain project equity stake of 12.1%; Oracles historic investment, plus a potential premium, to be included as part of its investment contribution"
So, the historic investment is being knocked off our share of the project, but the bit about the "potential premium" is woolly. I'd expect some fund raising on our part, but, to be honest, I don't think it can be quantified at the moment, so I'm very much in "close my eyes, hide behind the sofa and hope it works out" territory with this one !
It's not been a great investment for me, but I'm still vaguely hopeful of a happy ending.
The anticipated cost of commercialisation is ~ 1.7 million USD
"100% of the required funding to equal 87.9% of ORCP value ?
That doesnt fit in my head."
I'm not sure what you mean there ?
Going forward, assuming as things go as planned, the company will be split 75/25 debt to equity, so our share of the equity ( 12.1%), will, theoretically anyway, equate to roughly 3% of the total value of the company
Current market cap is roughly 17 million GBP, or ~ 25 million USD
Rolled up losses are ~ 8 million GBP, or ~ 11 million USD. Our losses are
"... to be recognised as part of the Company's equity holding in the Project"
So, our overall value in the equity is worth ~36 million USD, and, with the sp having drifted down recently, was probably worth closer to 50 million USD at the time the MOU was signed ( sp was ~2.0p )
So our share of the equity suggests the whole value of getting the project to a commercial state is
50*100/3 = 1,666 USD
Which is close enough to 1,700 USD to make no difference
I'm not sure if that helps answer your question though !
With the closure of the 'People's Congress' on 20th March I would expect larger projects to start moving forward again. Sichuan Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. the other investor is a state-owned investment firm under Sichuans provincial government.
Hi Boring Bernie, I'm still in Oracle but everyday I wonder why. I think everything is positive, its just taking sooooo long to get back to at least break even. There is no doubt in my mind that the SP will rise its just a matter of what year.
Maybe we will be bought out entirely by the Chinese at a decent premium, if not then it is definitely one for the long haul.
I thought, in my naivety, that with open cast mining it was going to be a very simple process to get the coal out of the ground and revenue start flooding in. I don't mean to be critical because the board are obviously progressing nicely and slow and steady will definitely win this race. It's just that my patience is wearing thin but I refuse to pull out for a loss. Start of another year with Oracle Power and still hopeful but tired of waiting.
It's not often you see a placing take place at a premium of 20%, so I've added a small ( 100,000 ) amount to my holding here.
Along with the details of the MOU released last month, the placing seems to show that we're moving into the next phase of the project, so, while it's going to take some time before coal's being mined and electricity produced, it's been partly de-risked.
Hopefully the market will wake up to what's happening here, but I'm not holding my breath on that !
Looks like there's only be left on this board now !
Anyway, today's RNS about the MOU where it says ...
"... that the Chinese parties will take a significant majority equity holding, will arrange debt finance and ..."
I wonder how that's going to pan out for us existing shareholders ? I can't really see the Chinese buying shares on the open market, or many of our significant shareholders passing their shares over, so I'm guessing that means a shed load of new shares will be issued, hopefully at, or around the market price.
I like the fact that they're going to arrange the debt finance, if they can't get that done relatively cheaply, then I don't think anyone can.
Anyway, barring a sharp increase in the sp from where it is today ( ~2.6p ) I'm holding until, at least, we get some more details next month.
Well, it's slowly coming together now and certainly looks like things are moving in the right direction.
I must admit, although understanding how loan finance is going to work is straightforward enough, it's tough to work out how the asset level equity being talked about is going to effect us as ordinary shareholders.
It'll eventually come down to how much cash is skimmed off by the holders of the asset level equity, but I'm struggling to value shareholder equity here.
I'm not sure if anyone on this board is still following what's happening, but here's my thoughts anyway. The results were a bit short and sweet, with nothing much that we didn't know already. However, the important things for me were
"In 2017 Oracle will concentrate on formalising agreements and contracts to bring the project to full implementation along with working to secure all project financing arrangements, including its future project equity funding share."
"Oracle is looking into diversifying its portfolio of activity and we are seeking wider opportunities in Pakistan and internationally."
As shareholders, in the short to medium term. the former is probably the most important thing, because the appetite for fund raising will, for better or worse affect the sp from it's current position ( ~ 2.75p ).
Longer term, the latter will be quite interesting. i wonder what they've got their eye on next ?
The sp is still slowly creeping up here so presumably there's some buying pressure.
I vaguely remember doing some very rough back of fag packet calcs a couple of years ago which gave me an initial sp target of 5 to 6p and we're inching our way towards the level I'd probably take some profits.
I'm miles from home so don't have access to my workings out, but it would have assumed certain levels of profitability on the mining / generation operatiional profitability after taking into account my guesstimate of debt. Has anyone else run a sliderule over this or are we mostly working on gut instinct ?
"The Group will need to raise funds to reach financial close. Also, financial close involves the raising of finance, both debt and equity for the opening up of the mine and the construction of the power plant ..."
The RNS from the 3rd June talking about a Framework Agreement being in place for the Chinese to take an equity share in our subsidaries might have changed that, but it's getting complicated now, and I'm no expert, so I guess we have to wait and see what the "further announcement" from that RNS brings us.
"Oracle is pleased to announce that it has signed a Shareholder Framework Agreement subject to conditions precedent, whereby a consortium of new and existing Chinese partners will take 70% equity in its subsidiaries in Pakistan in order to advance the development of the project. A further announcement will be made in due course."
Getting closer to a commercial reality here. Very tough to call in terms of the sp for us PI's, but it seems to be coming together.
Disposal of Stakes in Oracle Coalfields PLC and Sula Iron & Gold PLC
Legendary Investments PLC (AIM: LEG) announces that is has disposed of its stakes in Oracle Coalfields PLC and Sula Iron & Gold PLC. While the disposals have only raised limited additional funds of circa £25,000, they indicate the Company's intention to focus on its core investments, Virtual Stock, Bosques Energeticos SA de CV, Manas Resources LLP and Amedeo Resources plc and to seek additional promising investments of which a number are currently under review.
There seems to have been a fair amount of buying pressure again today, maybe brought about by three early trades of 500,000 shares ? A fair amount of trades of 500k and a million shares have gone through today and on Friday, most of which have been delayed so it's hard to say categorically they're buys.
The really big recent trades were
Both were delayed, so are marked as sells because they've been judged at the time they were published rather than at the time the trade went through. Looking at the trades at that time I'd say the 2.1 million trade was a Buy. The 10.7 million trade isn't an obvious buy, but it's hard to believe it was a sell, otherwise surely the sp would have dropped like a stone ?
Puzzled but holding describes my position at the moment !
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