Hi Boring Bernie, I'm still in Oracle but everyday I wonder why. I think everything is positive, its just taking sooooo long to get back to at least break even. There is no doubt in my mind that the SP will rise its just a matter of what year.
Maybe we will be bought out entirely by the Chinese at a decent premium, if not then it is definitely one for the long haul.
I thought, in my naivety, that with open cast mining it was going to be a very simple process to get the coal out of the ground and revenue start flooding in. I don't mean to be critical because the board are obviously progressing nicely and slow and steady will definitely win this race. It's just that my patience is wearing thin but I refuse to pull out for a loss. Start of another year with Oracle Power and still hopeful but tired of waiting.
It's not often you see a placing take place at a premium of 20%, so I've added a small ( 100,000 ) amount to my holding here.
Along with the details of the MOU released last month, the placing seems to show that we're moving into the next phase of the project, so, while it's going to take some time before coal's being mined and electricity produced, it's been partly de-risked.
Hopefully the market will wake up to what's happening here, but I'm not holding my breath on that !
Looks like there's only be left on this board now !
Anyway, today's RNS about the MOU where it says ...
"... that the Chinese parties will take a significant majority equity holding, will arrange debt finance and ..."
I wonder how that's going to pan out for us existing shareholders ? I can't really see the Chinese buying shares on the open market, or many of our significant shareholders passing their shares over, so I'm guessing that means a shed load of new shares will be issued, hopefully at, or around the market price.
I like the fact that they're going to arrange the debt finance, if they can't get that done relatively cheaply, then I don't think anyone can.
Anyway, barring a sharp increase in the sp from where it is today ( ~2.6p ) I'm holding until, at least, we get some more details next month.
Well, it's slowly coming together now and certainly looks like things are moving in the right direction.
I must admit, although understanding how loan finance is going to work is straightforward enough, it's tough to work out how the asset level equity being talked about is going to effect us as ordinary shareholders.
It'll eventually come down to how much cash is skimmed off by the holders of the asset level equity, but I'm struggling to value shareholder equity here.
I'm not sure if anyone on this board is still following what's happening, but here's my thoughts anyway. The results were a bit short and sweet, with nothing much that we didn't know already. However, the important things for me were
"In 2017 Oracle will concentrate on formalising agreements and contracts to bring the project to full implementation along with working to secure all project financing arrangements, including its future project equity funding share."
"Oracle is looking into diversifying its portfolio of activity and we are seeking wider opportunities in Pakistan and internationally."
As shareholders, in the short to medium term. the former is probably the most important thing, because the appetite for fund raising will, for better or worse affect the sp from it's current position ( ~ 2.75p ).
Longer term, the latter will be quite interesting. i wonder what they've got their eye on next ?
The sp is still slowly creeping up here so presumably there's some buying pressure.
I vaguely remember doing some very rough back of fag packet calcs a couple of years ago which gave me an initial sp target of 5 to 6p and we're inching our way towards the level I'd probably take some profits.
I'm miles from home so don't have access to my workings out, but it would have assumed certain levels of profitability on the mining / generation operatiional profitability after taking into account my guesstimate of debt. Has anyone else run a sliderule over this or are we mostly working on gut instinct ?
"The Group will need to raise funds to reach financial close. Also, financial close involves the raising of finance, both debt and equity for the opening up of the mine and the construction of the power plant ..."
The RNS from the 3rd June talking about a Framework Agreement being in place for the Chinese to take an equity share in our subsidaries might have changed that, but it's getting complicated now, and I'm no expert, so I guess we have to wait and see what the "further announcement" from that RNS brings us.
"Oracle is pleased to announce that it has signed a Shareholder Framework Agreement subject to conditions precedent, whereby a consortium of new and existing Chinese partners will take 70% equity in its subsidiaries in Pakistan in order to advance the development of the project. A further announcement will be made in due course."
Getting closer to a commercial reality here. Very tough to call in terms of the sp for us PI's, but it seems to be coming together.
Disposal of Stakes in Oracle Coalfields PLC and Sula Iron & Gold PLC
Legendary Investments PLC (AIM: LEG) announces that is has disposed of its stakes in Oracle Coalfields PLC and Sula Iron & Gold PLC. While the disposals have only raised limited additional funds of circa £25,000, they indicate the Company's intention to focus on its core investments, Virtual Stock, Bosques Energeticos SA de CV, Manas Resources LLP and Amedeo Resources plc and to seek additional promising investments of which a number are currently under review.
There seems to have been a fair amount of buying pressure again today, maybe brought about by three early trades of 500,000 shares ? A fair amount of trades of 500k and a million shares have gone through today and on Friday, most of which have been delayed so it's hard to say categorically they're buys.
The really big recent trades were
Both were delayed, so are marked as sells because they've been judged at the time they were published rather than at the time the trade went through. Looking at the trades at that time I'd say the 2.1 million trade was a Buy. The 10.7 million trade isn't an obvious buy, but it's hard to believe it was a sell, otherwise surely the sp would have dropped like a stone ?
Puzzled but holding describes my position at the moment !
what is interesting is even SRK is not aware of why the license was cancelled and by whom. The fact that this is not clear is a bit disconcerting, but if you understand Pakistan like I do. There are many unexplained issues which remain a mystery!
he Thar Coalfield is 380km east of Karachi, and covers 9,100 sq km with a total lignite coal resource in excess of 175bn tonnes
The cancellation of Oracle Coalfield's (LON:ORPC) mining lease for its huge coal and power project late last year could hardly be described as a minor blip, but the firm appears to have moved on and it's now full steam ahead.
A 300% upsurge in the share price since the lease was reinstated by the Pakistan authorities suggests the market believes so too.
There is much work afoot but the real glint on the horizon the firm is heading towards is a letter of intent from Chinese credit giant Sinosure confirming its underwriting of the 70% debt element of the coal and power project in Sindh province.
It is, and has been, a lengthy road but Oracle is inching closer to developing a coal mine with a power station at its mouth to serve Pakistan's energy needs.
At its first stage an eye-watering 4 mln tonnes of coal a year will feed a 600MW power station.
The cost of bringing it into fruition is put at US$1.5bn including the cost of financing, of which around US$1bn will be debt.
The remainder, or 30%, will be funded via equity investment, and garnering investor interest is already going very well and will be boosted by getting the Sinosure letter, said Oracle CEO Shahrukh Khan, not least as that will mean zero risk for any lender (because Sinosure will give money back in the event of a problem).
Obviously, Oracle will not be able to maintain 30% of the project itself, raising the best part of US$500mln and shareholders will face dilution as new investors come in but the value of the project will still mean it's worth it for shareholders, reckons Khan.
Chinese partner SEPCO, which is leading the EPC (engineering, contracting and construction) term sheets has talked about ending up with around a 10% ownership in the project, for example.
Having a big investor come in on the project does not worry Khan, however.
"We can live with that because Oracle itself will not be compromised because the upside is very much there," he told Proactive.
The fact a big player may well step in was made all the more likely by the fact the project is now included in the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) - meaning the Chinese government and banks can make fast-track money available to approved projects, Khan explained.
Financing available for energy projects from is expected to be around US$33.8bn.
So the jigsaw is now starting to come together for Oracle.
In terms of a timeline of necessary milestones, it is currently working on the EPC documents along with a coal supply agreement and power purchase agreement, whereby the coal price supply cost will be agreed with the Thar coal and Energy board, which will then be fed into the electricity agreement.
The firm hopes to agree the electricity tariff Pricing Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) in Pakistan in the fourth quarter this year, and the numbers are already compelling, said Khan.
He says electricity on Pakistan's National Grid is currently selling for 18-20 cents per KW/h. "We know we can significantly reduce that," he said.
A final decision on debt from Sinosure and a final investment decision is earmarked for the fourth quarter - a point to which the firm says it is now fully funded.
First power delivery is targeted for late 2018, but mine opening and power plant construction could start as early as in the first half of next year.
That Pakistan is going through an energy crisis is not in doubt.
It has suffered cuts and outages since 2008, which has hampered GDP growth but Oracle reckons with a resource like Thar, at 1.4bn tonnes, the country can develop low-cost domestic generation capacity at a si
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan successfully produced electricity through the Thar Coal on Thursday (May 28), the day of Youm-e-Takbeer. This will help in mitigating the electricity crisis in the country.
The Underground Coal Gasification Project in Tharparkar has started producing power from May 28. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is very happy to hear this good news and will visit Tharparkar to see production of electricity through coal there. Some 50,000MW power can be produced through coal in Tharparkar for 150 years.
The pilot project has started producing 5MW electricity with the cooperation of Chinese companies there.The head of the project, Dr Samar Mubarakmand, engineers and staff have thanked Allah on this success. Dr Samar Mubarakmand said the electricity would be provided to nearby villages free of cost. The people celebrated this success there.
I am back in now at 1.92p, so roll on production and lets start getting the coal out of the ground. This is definitely a lock up and leave. I admire the boards tenacity, many others would have thrown in the towel at this stage but they have crossed each hurdle that has been placed in front of them which gives me confidence that they will see this project through to make it a profitable business.
I have no idea, I cannot give you a figure of what I think it will be worth. But I can tell you personally I see this as a multi bagger, even at the price you bought at. I have invested because I think this a long term investment, its not going to be a rapid return one, but one for your pension.
Pakistan has huge energy demands (Pakistani economists reckon lack of energy has knocked 2% off GDP growth), as India also grows its demands of energy are also set to grow. The hard part is getting it out of the ground and into a power station, part of the that risk has been taken on by the Pakistan and Chinese Governments by the backing they have given this coalfield at state level by including it in the Pakistan China Economic Corridor. When they are producing there will be a spurt of production from the different blocks, and Oracle will be able to join in the opportunity.
There is gold in that desert, and most western investors have not yet fully realized it as they have a misconception of Pakistan as a risk factor. Read Jim O'Neill's report on the Next 11 developing nations, Pakistan is on the list.
Wing Commander 2, what do you anticipate the current bull run on this share to level out at? Do you think that we could be looking at 5p within the next 6 months. I have a long way to go to break even, I am in at 9p from a few years ago. I am going to average down this week and stick with this share for the long term. My dream is that it will go back to issue price of 14p but that may be very wishful thinking.
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