Short interest has increased this month quite a bit. Maybe theyve had an effect on the sp recently?
The biggest short AQR has steadily reduced, now down to 1.79%.
Lot of other shorters going the other direction.
Joining the party late ?
Total reported shorts now up to 7.74% so back up from 6%.
Lets hope they get burned for it.
Can understand a few objecting to Asfari, but 20% against the remuneration package ... what was the problem?
The AGM statement was positive in that they are winning new business and bidding hard, but not back to the rate of previous years. Clouds still overhead. So maybe the recent drop is more than just a failed bond issue, were they subbing to Total or hoping to develop business in Iran?
Watching this closely, if oil prices sneeze we may catch a cold.
Petrofac extends decline to session low, dropping as much PFC LN Equity as 9.7%, with volume ~1.3x 3-month daily average; failure to price new bond on Tuesday as expected is a £minor setback,£ Bernstein analyst Nicholas Green says in note.
Cites £insufficient capital market appetite£ for bond issue, $200m of which was intended to help repay $677m bond due in October. October 2018 bond will now be paid out of existing liquidity via cash and/or facilities
£Minor setback for Petrofac£ as management had discussed preference for new bond; 6% coupon was £insufficient£ to attract enough interest Using cash or facilities to pay down October 2018 bond will reduce Petrofac£s liquidity buffer, which isn£t a £major£
concern but is a negative
Apparently 200m bond sale with 6% coupon failed, hence the drop.
It's hardly lot of money also considering credit rating was upped earlier. But shows the market still has doubts. Any asset sales makes this issue a little irrelevant. But as it is, petrofac gets knee jerks sell-reaction every time on bad news. This will persist until SFO investigation is cleared.
The bond sale with 6% coupon didn't attract enough interest. For me that is negative only short term, linger term its only irrelevant. Cash position is improving.
all depends on the market. I have a feeling the FTSE is going to top within the next couple of weeks then fall back in June. I agree that PFC should be getting back to the 700-800 level, but both the Dow and FTSE are somewhat over stretched. There is always the outside chance of a bid from Schlumber or Haliburton which would certainly liven things up. But one thing is for sure, when I do decide to sell these, they will shoot upwards just to annoy the hell out of me ;-)
Well it could be, but I'm not sure there is much sign of that yet looking at the chart. I have been slicing profit on the way up which gives room to buy back in case of a big dip like we saw in Feb which can happen any time but don't see anything to say that is imminent.
On the contracts, March was a bit of a exceptional run, there have been longer periods without any announcements, if oil stays above $70/bbl there will be plenty more projects to bid.
The SFO investigation remains the big unknown with no schedule to conclude.
Divi + current sp makes this worth 655p now.
It's not in my target price yet but it's tempting to think of taking profit off the table?
Those who held must be pleased.
To push much further need contract news. SFO inquiry drop would see this fly to dizzy heights. Long is the wait.
The news is now a week old but, nevertheless good to note that PFC have brought that particular 'white elephant' saga to a fairly satisfactory conclusion. (as per RNS and various other sources like: http://tinyurl.com/ybd3akfr
Petrofacs CEO Ayman Asfari said: This agreement materially completes our disposal of the project, in line with our stated intention to exit the deep-water market. It is a further positive step in the execution of our stated strategy to focus on our core strengths, deliver organic growth and reduce capital intensity.
The PFC boat has sailed for now as far as I'm concerned, having recouped my 2017 losses and eventually made a healthy profit I'm not interested in re-entry at these ex-div levels, especially with the SFO risk still outstanding. Fortunately I can benefit more directly from PoO elsewhere.
Price holding surprisingly well today. Maybe because Brent is back on the up, although I can't really figure why PFC would react to relatively small short term PoO fluctuations. US production should swiftly ramp up at this kind of level, effectively putting a cap on the price. With the onset of the US 'driving season' demand, I guess PoO should remain firm for a few months.
The sp drop from 625 to today's 576 was of a similar scale to that of late January (immediately before the big drop) and might have marked a potential buy-back point if it were not for the reasons set out by Speeder. On balance it is hard to see what will sustain the upward thrust that the sp has recently enjoyed. As February showed, the sp remains very vulnerable to the slightest whiff of bad news and remains quite fragile.
If youve taken a decent profit, The problem with coming back in at anything higher than 450p (which is only -25%) is that this stock can butcher you its so volatile. The flash crash in Jan took it from 560 to 395p in days!
If youve run a profit its better to wait for a safe reentry point over next few months which is possible
- Stock markets at all time highs
- Rates rising
- orange dude in White House
- oil price at all time high for a while but fundamentals of shale more likely to bringing it down not up
- and lets not forget the SFO isnt over yet
- dividend is over for another 6 months
You might buy all that risk at 450p but at 550p......you could be asking for trouble
next week is when next Tuesday is....but maybe that's not what you meant.
In reality, there's room for all sides in this bit of banter to be right - yes the trend is currently upward and, equally, there will inevitably be some 'corrections' along the way. How deep those corrections go is a matter of interest for those of us who took a profit and would like to reload if the right opportunity comes along. A revisit to 560 would be nice for me - that would mean 60p tucked away instead of the divi - but, hey, I'll see where it lands over the next few days.
Joking aside, I am open to the idea that TA can be useful in certain circumstances - such as timing an entry or exit - but, as you say, this might just be because it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I'm also trying to consider at what point I would re-buy the 20% I sold, as I do think the SP has potential to be significantly higher at some future point.
I sold at around £6.20, so I'm thinking somewhere in the region of £5.50-5.60? Perhaps 10% at this point and then hold out for £5.25? At worst, these prices will never get revisited, in which case my remaining 80% will be doing very nicely!
Why Jack, surely you are not thinking that there's a fib in Fibonacci? That's heresy in some circles you know. The fact that it's most effective in markets (like Forex) where lots of traders use it does point to a rather self fulfilling tendency. It also helps that 50% usually gets added to the series to fill in an awkward gap.
On an even cheekier note, I'm wondering if today's 592.6 opening price provides a clue to the sp's direction - so I've started to set one or two 'optimistic' limit buys.
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