Another amazing report. Things will return to more normal trading. However, thanks to the crypto boost full year projections have been uprated to ... (didn't say did he?). What plans for continued roll-out and expansion?
Uprating my commentary in February I consider we are now looking for net 2018 earnings of $450-500M on revenues of $650-700M ... eps of 290-320p. Surely a whopper interim/special on the cards?
Awash with cash even after covering the upcoming dividend payout ... at liberty to announce another special and a buy back, no point in sitting on spare cash, curious there was no mention of either. A buy back makes most sense if the sp continues to massively undervalue the business, spend $100M to taken another 5% of the stock out of circulation.
I think the idea that the shares will find their value and then level off is a good one, but the dividend yield is such that we might still want to hold until the sp reaches ... well on my new sums ignore the Liberum upgrade to £17.29 which makes no sense being so low, that would be selling out to soon if the settled outlook is a 150p dividend prospect.
Great stuff freedom thirty5
I like people who share similar interests to mine. Super.
Im a novice TA follower. I use basic parameters. iii supplies me with those. And yes, I hope they dont mess it up with the new website.
Just to add that I find complex TA doesnt work consistently ie hit and miss ie correct 50% of the time and wrong in 50% of the time. Not much use, is it? I might as well toss a coin. Lol
I used to post regularly and frequently in the ACTA bb, but have given up on that now. Because the ACTA bb stopped serving the purpose it was designed to do ie stopped delivering whats written on the tin.
As you can see the sp has been on an upwards trend since January 2017. During this period plenty of you traded the share. Usually worried the sp has reached a peak and will dip again. It may have been profitable trades but was it worth??
As they say the trend is your friend , stick with it.
All my opinions, I could be wrong. But Im not trading, Ill stick with the upward trend thank you very much.
Good luck to everyone
Eventually this share will peak and the party will cool down for a period of time, it I dont think we are there yet and not for a while. When the time comes I will sell out completely and wait for the price to settle down before getting back in. I dont know when that will be though.
Ive traded this share more than 12 times over the past 4 years with some tasty profits banked.
At 800p I bought a big chunk and decided to top up every time the share price rises £1. Its been working a treat for me now the sp is £15.
I will hold if the sp drops ie ride out the dips on the way upwards. The sky is the limits for PLUS in my views. No more trading out and in again for me.
Just my opinion. Only opinion.
Good luck to everyone
Remarkeable figures announced today & despite a recent return to more "normal" levels expectations for the full year have been increased.Additionally ,after a subdued couple of months the crypto market has stabilised & is recovering & there could easily be a return to the frenzied conditions of late 2018/early 2019 generating additional revenue for Plus.Probably fair to assume that our dividends paid will increase again this year -so happy to be holding in my ISA & SIPP & staying for the ride although it will be interesting to see what The Market makes of the statement.
Each to their own. I'm pretty relaxed about my trading. I never use stop losses, only because I'm an old fart and I insist on making all my trades manually and consciously. This might be wrong, I don't know. I'm averse to excessive trading, personally. As I continue to believe in the prospects of PLUS over the next 24 - 36 months, I'd rather just be lazy and ride out any dips.
More active trading could possibly net me more cash, but balanced against my laziness and what I regard as riskiness of not holding a good share, I tend not to.
All the best with your strategy, and your holding here!
We are enjoying the same predicament, holding a share which has zoomed to 3x. I have no doubt in the underlying value of this stock, but it does make you think you should be doing something ... how about a stop loss? Except the last time I did that someone was watching and swooped.
The possibility that someone will come in with a £30 buyout offer stronger than the stock slumping back to £9 (is Sh***ie still shorting to 600p?) ... actually that might create a CGT problem.
How about shaving off a slice when we hit £15 ... you could always buy back on a dip?
For now I will put (another) stop loss on (another) half of my holding.
I sold half in November at well over 100% profit, so my current holding here is better than free of charge.
When the price crossed £13.62 my profit level on this one became 200%.
So obviously I'm very happy with the performance of this stock, and I believe that is underpinned by an equally good performance of the company.
So far there are no signs of the business performance cooling down, as far as I can see. The various regulatory worries seem not to be an issue to the company, which has prudently prepared for them well in advance of their arrival.
It could be overbought in the short term, but I don't see anything to take the shine off of the business prospects in the foreseeable future, so I cannot be bothered to trade this one.
Fair call. Personally, I see this going far higher, but as it does (or not!), I sell parts along the way. So, over the last 200p or so, I would say that I have sold roughly a third. I will continue doing this, but will slow down as I still see a far, far higher price as a possibility and so I would not like to miss out on a parabolic move (whether deserved or not).
What would lead to such a move? A combination of:
- continued market volatility
- steady account numbers in current markets
- good traction in new markets in SA and Singapore
- more license approvals
- rerating of SP (I.e. higher p/e)
A lot of ifs, but all of them perfectly reasonable in the time frame of a year or two.
The largely expected retail CFD trading restrictions announced today, welcomed by P500 a very confident and specific response from the CEO who considers they are largely compliant already, can easily adapt where they need to, and considers they will not notice much impact given the strong momentum from the global expansion of business.
In contrast IG bleating loudly about how unfair ESMAs restrictions are and warning of a material impact on its business which might take until 2019 to return to growth. So now we know for sure that the bad mouthing of P500 by IG and its brokers Numis was wrong and intended to poison market opinion of a rival. I imagine IG and Numis to be lining up a sponsorship deal with Cricket Australia. Sc*m all of them.
The share price chart this morning has been spectacular.
Perhaps we can get back to agreeing fair value is probably around £15 and begin to consider what might be the next cycle in the life of this amazing business ... continued organic global expansion with astonishing profit margins, until ...
I certainly wouldn't say freefall - we are still sitting around 5% below the placing price having meandered a bit aimlessly since then.
As long as the support around 1020 holds then this still looks to be in a bullish trend despite the shock of the placing bringing the price to current levels imo.
It may need the Q1 trading update to get things back moving in the right direction. Market volatility thanks to rumblings from the tangerine dullard and ongoing cryptocurrency movements will certainly have helped matters, if IG is anything to go by.
Yes, offloading 6% of P500 stock at a slight discount has hardly dented demand. At the same time institutions have been taking profits in smaller slices. Kind of disappointed, a bigger dip would have tempted me to add.
Announced after close of play yesterday, completed before open today. I suppose that takes out the possibility of spooking.
Didn't P500 buy back around this much stock last year? No announcement of a further buy back despite being awash with cash, perhaps a sign that we are nearer fair value territory now.
Two chunky buys at £20M and £12M catch the eye. An equity income IT manager looking for 7% yield or smaller cos growth IT manager looking for 40% pa growth prospects ... I would have thought anyone looking to stake build or take P500 over has missed the boat by now? Unless of course someone wants to offer me £30?
144.79c dividend at current 1.40/GBP fx gives £1.04/share divi.
Whether one has applied for rebate of Israeli WHT or not will give a take-home of roughly 78p or 88p.
Assuming within ISA or divi allowance, and based on at-time-of-writing mid-point of 1118p, this gives a divi corrected share price of 1196p or 1206p, or about 3% below historic high.
Only downside to results was lower average revenue per user, but more than compensated by increasing number of new and active users and far cheaper user acquisition cost.
This still looks very cheap to me based on reduced near-term regulatory threats and the increasing number of markets being licenced, thus increasing revenue and reducing exposure to mid-term regulatory changes in individual countries.
the trading slice in my AJBell pot at 1230p for a 10% gain in a week, and moved on to ALFA hopeful of another quick return. Still a big fan confident of progress to come so I am keeping the rest of my P500 stake for the dividend and the prospect of 1500p later in the year, but I also need to trade hard to repair the damage done by the last few weeks of madness where the signs of recovery have not yet reached my core holdings.
I think shares weak today due to potential placing of certain founders' stock. Last November, Liberum attempted to place 7m of the holdings of founders and certain directors at around 850p and this was all aborted due to price weakness. Today's spectacular results provides ideal background for such a placing. You wouldn't want to buy any today until likelihood of a maybe £90m dump has been resolved.
Re your concern with the 25% Israeli withholding tax, I have always managed to reclaim 10% from Israel through the services of ESOP and obtain full UK tax relief from the 15% balance. You have to obtain a signed confirmation from your UK tax office that you are a UK resident and tax returns all submitted etc , but once this is set up, not too difficult to obtain all subsequent refunds.
I am in since August and topped up from time to time. This is share is still cheap and I just topped up again.
The dividend is great. And they have $241.8m net cash. This share is, in my opinion, pretty safe from any market downturns because PLUS made it clear that they would start a share buyback programme any time they think it would make sense:
"The Board has undertaken buybacks in the past and has the power to implement them at short notice. It will continue to consider share buybacks taking into account market conditions, share price, trading volume and other factors."
So with all the free cash this statement provides a very good protection against any huge fall of the share price in my opinion.
The $200M net profit is where previous signals had indicated but how nice to see it for real. I hate it when updates refer to expectation without saying what that is! My bold view is $300M earnings in 2018 on revenues $550M.
News of momentum was hoped for, echoing comment in last weekend's papers ... the burst of activity caused by Bitcoin et al has stimulated trading and more sign ups, and recent weeks of market volatility has redoubled that effect.
The sp settling back from a deserved spike over 1300p this morning is disappointing, lots of little sells so I wonder if it is private investors taking a gain to repair the bad in their portfolios right now. I agree with Liberum that P500 fair valueis heading over 1500p. Subject to studying the detail in the report Hold and maybe even look to add again.
The cherry on the icing on the cake is a dividend of around 78p after allowing for the awful 25% Israeli witholding tax. Really long fuse though, not paid until 23 Jul and depends on GBP:USD. Repeated commitment to distributing free cash flow to investors, what can you do with zero debt, zero intangible assets, tiny operating costs, cash positive growth ... how else do you defend against a predatory approach?
Surprised P500 does not appear as a major holding in more small-cap and equity income portfolios.
I wish that all of my investments performed as poorly as Plus.Excellent Results,fantastic cash flow,massive increase in dividends & as early as today our CEO is prepared to commit to 2018 trading expected to exceed expectations - he has not previously been prone to hyperbole !
My only regret is that I didnt but more when I first bought around 130p.
To celebrate the arrival of cash into my new AJBell Dealing account this morning, first trade adding to Plus500 holdings for what will hopefully be a pretty quick win. More good news about development of target markets this morning, hopeful next week's results will put impressive numbers to uprated guidance and spice up the sp. 1250 maybe.
A good start with AJBell, generally easy platform the red is a bit alarming, still learning the navigation between trade and research, and (so far, touch wood) pretty responsive customer service from three different agents.
See why IG execs have been so snappy, 4% yield on sp roughly flat over 2 years and earnings growth rolling along at +10% pa. Focussed on a narrow market which is expensive to service with limited room to grow. Only now have they thought about a strategy to expand. No wonder market and broker response to their interims today has been muted.
Meanwhile our red neck Israeli chums have built a really neat platform, cleverly marketed a simple service to retail punters in an expanding number of markets, and operate successfully on what looks like a skeletal staff. They must be really really good and tremendously hard working people. It may have to up its admin and overheads but it seems to be positioned and has regulatory requirements in mind.
Gone are the days 2 and 3 years ago where FT Alphaville devoted an enormous amount of time to criticising this upstart mostly on the grounds that it looked too good to be true, because it couldn't figure out how P500's business model worked and why it was so successful, and so questioning that it may not be ethical or properly governed or honest. Actually Plus500 did need to do some catch up work to get on the right side of compliance issues, but then the rule makers were doing just that ... making up the rules. Still are in fact.
And some of the early management attitude was appalling - we are doing ok because we haven't had a major complaint and we haven't been sued yet. Fortunately those people haven't been in charge of late, brilliant programmers nonetheless.
Not sure I understand the business in the detail, but I am satisfied this is not a flash in the pan and is not a dodgy scheme. P500 have found a neat way of profitting from the enormous retail appetite for speculative trading ... punters gambling on price movements in things like foreign exchange, like other people bet on horses or poker. On the whole I think P500 make their money from transaction fees and margins in the spread rather than book making per se, but there are probably balancing of positions and hedging in the background.
Punters lose money, actually a large number lose quite a lot, mostly to each other. Gambling is ruinous we know. It is not a pick on moral or ethical grounds. I have had a play with the P500 demonstrator and it is terrifying how quickly you can get caught out even when you think you have a safe idea on where, say, oil or gold prices are heading. Way too exciting for me.
A knee jerk reaction to ban all crypto currency trading would be just that, like banning gambling because people bet. A ban would affect everyone. Much better that the regulator concentrates on things like small stake or trading limits for non-professionals, restricting leveraged losses so you can't lose more than your stake, controlling how services are marketed (it is not investing, not even trading, it is betting) so no trashy get-your first-£10-free type of deals, and safeguarding procedures for how new clients are taken on who may be vulnerable, proper money laundering controls etc Just like any other gambling operation. So far without the super-taxes, just virtually unrecoverable Israeli witholding tax at rates in excess of international tax treaty conventions.
Meanwhile P500 sp has surged on earnings growth running at about +30% pa while also delivering 6%+ dividends. Much more in the pipeline. And to rub salt in IGs wounds the board and shareholdrs have just voted the CEO and CFO a splendid bonus ... dare I say it one that seems well deserved.
Going forward to remain as an investor I would be pleased if Plus500 cemented its good fortunes by embracing the concerns of the regulators. Why not be seen to take issues seriously, not just make the right noises actually take pre-emptive steps to enhace controls customer care services and safeguarding procedures, put the right sort of city types in place to deal with city issues, work on some goodwill projects.
An odd press release from Numis on behalf of IG yesterday in response to the Dear CEO public letter about CFD trading concerns (which IG clearly received) in which it said it was largely unaffected and repeated its view that it is more likely that P500 with its "lower class" customer profile would be more heavily affected.
A helpful response from P500 followed, in which it points out that the conduct issues covered by the Dear CEO letter were not relevant to its business model, and in fact Plus500 had not been included in those addressed by the letter. P500 resisted any temptation to comment on anyone else's position.
Pretty disgraceful from Numis and IG (again). I would be considering a "cease and desist" letter of my own to them if I were general counsel at P500.
Well even as good days go that was one and a half. Congratulations to everyone who ignored last month's hiatus and blocked the twerp last Summer shorting this back down to 600p.
My instinct is that we will see the sp up to £12.50 by or when the financial results released late Feb turn this latest super trading update into hard numbers and dividend. I might even add a few on that prospect.
£15 on the next trading update expecting it to show spectactular business growth has not been stalled by regulatory strictures.
Do not be spooked into selling this money maker too early unless you have an even better prospect of a 50% return in the next few months.
Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride powers online trading firm Plus 500
Rising interest in crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin led online trading firm Plus 500 to hit a record number of new customers in 2017
3 January 2018 12:07pm
A surge in the popularity of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies led online retail investment firm Plus 500 to hit a record level of quarterly sales at the end of 2017.
The company said it had seen increased interest in the investment products it sells that are linked to cryptocurrencies, as interest in the asset class grew among private investors.
Bitcoin in particular grabbed the attention of currency speculators globally last year after hitting $19,187 in December on the back of a 1,800pc rise compared to the start of 2017.
The cryptocurrency's heady rise and subsequent large fall to $13,472 has been beneficial to Plus 500, as its contracts for difference - or CFDs - allow traders to speculate on the rise or fall of an individual security without actually owning it. This means Plus 500 customers could have backed Bitcoin to fall from its 2017 highs without having to buy any of the cryptocurrency.
As well as reaching an unspecified record quarterly revenue at the end of 2017, Plus 500 said its 246,000 (2016: 104,432) new customers for the year as a whole was also the highest it had achieved.
The comments, which came as part of a short trading update from the company, mean it now expects sales and profits to be ahead of market expectations.
Investors in Plus 500 reacted positively to this, sending its shares up more than 16pc in early trading to £10.27.
Asaf Elimelech, chief executive of Plus500, said the company had started offering trading in cryptocurrencies in 2013, but that interest had risen in 2017.
The update tops off a strong 2017 for the business, which announced a $10m scheme to buy back some of its shares in June and a more than doubling of net profits in the six months to June, as well as a surge in new clients and an increase in existing customers' trading activity.
Plus 500 will publish its full results before the end of February, the company added.
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