I've said many a time, I would love to compare traders to investors.
If the ones advocating selling i hope they have opened shorts, lest they have nothing to gain, other than a lower buy in price, but then they sell way to early on the rise anyway...
OPEC will make decisions, and any increase would be madness, and they know it...
Wouldnt it be lovely to get some extra news from premier now.
One jump off the cliff, the all jump off the cliff. I do believe it also highlights there are a lot of leveraged positions.
Those like myself who buy the shares, own the shares, have a realistic view to how long to realise a fuller potential profit, have no need to sell, or consider selling.
The naysayers beat their own drums.
Take shuggle..... "i was right to sell, blah blah blah"
No you were not shuggle.... you sold and the shares went up 7%....
A week later they went down...
If you played short selling as you do long trading, you were closed out on the dip. A short would have been in play and you would have been closed out after the 7% rise.
Trouble is, with so many people playing with borrowed money, its easy to spread fear...
I saw one chap, a regular poster here who shall remain nameless, claim he'd sold out due to the dollar's rise (POO and the dollar being inversely correlated normally). Funny, the same chap was advocating a massive rise in PMO....over the past 6 weeks, despite the disconnect and lack of correlation between the dollar and POO over the past couple of months due to tightening oil markets & geopolitical factors.
Truth is - even with Friday's fall, Brent is same now as day Trump announced re-imposition of sanctions on Iran.
All of us are guilty of position posting, let's just call a spade a spade ....
Reuters already reporting a different tone from OPEC and Russia with ministers from both sides keen to emphasise that their announcements are not due to Trump's demand for action (and the implication that both Russia and OPEC have acted puppet like to his demand) and that no increases will even be discussed before the meeting in late June. That any subsequent decision to increase would need to be phased in (OPEC and Russia has no interest in significant oil price drop) to avoid return to surplus and is instead motivated to avoid opposite risk ... that of a spike to $100 as Iranian and Venezuelan supply is lost to market whilst US shale has shown it cannot produce more than its current ceiling of 11 millions per day due to infrastructure
bottlenecks. Reuters article quote below highlights how difficult it will be even for OPEC and Russia to increase;
OPEC may decide to raise oil output as soon as June due to worries over Iranian and Venezuelan supply and after Washington raised concerns the oil rally was going too far, OPEC and oil industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday. However, it is unclear which countries have the capacity to raise output and fill any supply gap other than Gulf oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia, the sources said. Only a few members have the capability to increase production, so implementation will be complicated, one OPEC source said. So far, OPEC had said it saw no need to ease output restrictions despite concerns among consuming nations that the price rally could undermine demand.
The rapid decline in oil inventories and worries about supplies after the U.S. decision to withdraw from the international nuclear deal with Iran, as well as Venezuelas collapsing output, were behind the change in OPECs thinking.
Hi - in my basic (substitute poor) reading the 88p is in line with the support at 50 day moving average the high 70,s in line with the 200 day moving average. Historically I have jumped back in too early, the 200 providing the real support - thats my plan for the moment - but lets see next week.
You got it wrong but you got stopped out.
I got it wrong when I expected the break out to continue.
Shugg1e may have got it wrong when he called 40p but you bet he saw the change in trend and got on board.
I saw the change in trend and derisked my holding at 121p levels.
No one has a crystal ball.
But what happens after the failure of such a break out is a classic retrace.
Now I suspect you are great at selecting shares and entry points lets call that your strength.
But your weakness lies in not recognising the turn here. I certainly did not expect it to be so dramatic but it now has momentum. I suspect 88p will whistle by.
Its important that we have friendly discussions and not to let emotions get involved. Its a good BB and its important that it stays that way.
Look at both Brent and WTI weekly chart . Bearish engulfing candle
We probably extended too fast . I suspect we'll get dollar strength too. Am bearish EUR/USD but we will nee the late cycle commodity rally later in the year to complete this long bull run . So PMO to rally later on IMO .
As posted yesterday I got stopped at 109 just below the steep secondary trend channel . Big error as my frist trend line got pierced and as technicians know , re-entering a trend channel is usually more often than not bearish . Luckily I had a hard stop just below the second.
Trend is up but probably will retrace . My line in the sand is 88p . This is not me believing my year end target has changed as am still on for 180ish
On the point about Shugg1e though do remember he called 40p before this rallied to 130 so lets not get carried away.
Also I trade CFDs with £1k to £4k per point so not a small player personally .
Am enjoying the bb more . Might not agree with some comments but its more civil and has more analytical views
Looking at the chart below the SP is still above one month ago so it can be argued that the month to month trend is up.
However the market correction and oil price and PMO meeting resistance all contributed to the reversal. which I believe will continue.
I had bought some recently at 121p, so when this reversal came I needed to act.
I still hold some of these but completely derisked.
I will wait on the sidelines until late August early September.
I will keep a watching brief only.
Most investors start off not considering the downside in their portfolios.
After a few painful lessons (I have had plenty) they learn to claim profits at reversals and buy on the reversal/recovery of the SP. Its the way to play the markets. You can make much more that way.
If you sell 10,000 shares at 121p this is £12,100-10 tranaction fee = £12,090
If you buy £12,090 of shares at 85p = 14,140 shares £12019 + £61 Stamp duty and £10
So you can see I will wait for the confirmed reversal and jump back on. I may end up with 15% more shares or up to 50% more shares.
This is how to build one's capital.
I think Shugg1e probably does this.
Follow posters like him, they are not sheep and they protect their capital. Very few posters like him. He genuinely does not want to see good hard working people lose money with their investments here.
You only need to make one or two successful transactions like this over a period to enhance your capital.
A view of Scapa Flow on marine traffic makes interesting viewing. Eight tankers at one point this week waiting on ship to ship transfers. One ship even came from Egypt when they are usually transshipping NS Oil. South wild has become a popular destination again.
Realistically need 110p or above to get automatic entry to the FTSE 250 this time round.
Will need a rally on Tuesday to do that.
Wouldn't like to bet either way on that one.
Next entry point is 4th September.
Totally agree that the correction is vicious but then again they always are after such a spike. This share is still heavily traded by the pros (and I'm not talking about the ameaters that post on here) and that's the result. Extreme volatility.
Good luck to those who banked some profits. Wish I had banked a lot more than I did but that's life. I should know better by now.
Still the trend for PMO is up and it will be interesting to see at what price the punters pile back in at.
Could not agree more. Reinforces the fact that the market has already rebalanced and US shale cannot fill the gap, either in volume or more so in quality for cleaner fuels. There may be more of a political US and Saudi vs Iran agenda to try and keep the lid on PoO for US trade.
Saudi's will not want to see any material drop, (Aramco listing). And Russia need all the profit they can get. My view is short term correction, and I'm sitting on my hands. Still very bullish.
Youve got to love the markets, oil drops to a level where a company is still making bucket loads of cash and the price drops nearly 20%, unbelievable really, but I guess itd be boring if the markets remained logical.
Perversely, Im glad weve had a dip, $80 oil is too much too fast in my very humble opinion. Its great to see the share price zoom up as prices are rising, but given the noises coming out of countries like India where demand growth is key, I do think price has got ahead of itself and OPEC are right to start considering adding additional supply. Personally, I think anywhere between $65-$75 is probably the right level, but Im sure the Saudis and Russia have their own views as to what price starts impacting on global demand.
No GK10, OPEC will not return to a market share strategy, your question is utterly farcical. OPEC hasnt gone through a number of years of pain just to flood the market again. In fact, I cant think of anything more bullish than OPEC having to increase production just to keep a lid on prices, especially after weve been fed shale this, shale that over the last couple of years.
Its also worth noting to the naysayers that even though weve had a decent tumble, the forward curve is still above $70 for all of 2019, a price where Premier will make around $700m of free cash-flow next year. Add in the potential for a full/part sale of Zama and you can see why Premiers equity could significantly increase over the next 18 months.
Anyways, I remain bullish, and will be adding to my holdings if the share price continues to puke on what I think is quite a healthy correction. I will be disappointed if we miss out on the FTSE250 this time around, but then theres always next time.
May 26, 2018 3:00 am by David Sheppard, Energy Markets Editor
Opec and Russia are in discussions with a view to raising oil production by up to 1m barrels a day as they move to cool concerns that crude prices have risen too fast.
Here are the key points to watch ahead of their meeting in Vienna next month where the plans will probably be formalised.
Why are they talking about raising output now?
The jump in oil prices to above $80 a barrel this month was driven by two key events: sharp production falls in Opec member Venezuela, where an economic and political crisis has hammered state oil company PDVSA, and the prospect of renewed US sanctions on Iran the third largest Opec producer which added to fears the oil market was rapidly tightening.
So while Opec and Russia have been working together since the start of 2017 to reduce oil supplies to end the glut that had depressed prices for the previous three years, output has now fallen far further than they initially intended.
The price rise was good for the bottom line of leading oil producers, but it has drawn an angry response from US President Donald Trump, with Americans facing higher prices at the pumps (though the countrys shale producers were less concerned).
Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia, while wanting strong prices to fund its ambitious economic and social reform programmes, is unlikely to want to anger Washington especially when the US is targeting Iran, Riyadhs biggest rival, after withdrawing from the nuclear deal.
How far are they likely to increase supplies?
For oil traders, this is the million (possibly billion) dollar question. The details of production increases are likely to be thrashed out between now and June 22, the next official meeting between Opec ministers and the broader Russian-led coalition that has signed up to the output deal since late 2016.
On Friday, people familiar with the discussions between Saudi Arabia and Russia said a figure of up to 1m barrels per day had been floated. But it is possible that the final number comes in lower.
Both Alexander Novak, Russias energy minister, and his Saudi counterpart, Khalid al Falih, said that all options were on the table and that any increase would be gradual. That is a clear sign that while they may wish to cool prices they do not want to trigger an aggressive sell-off.
Energy Aspects, a consultancy, estimated that the increase would be between 300,000 and 1m b/d, depending on whether they target country specific levels or group-wide targets.
They could ask members to bring output more closely in line with their original targets, in which case the increase would be at the lower end of the range as members such as Venezuela would be unable to respond.
The other option is for countries with spare capacity to fill the gap left by falling output in some members, which would lead to an increase closer to the upper end of the range.
Nothing has been decided yet . . . this is not a discussion about exiting the co-operation agreement. Rather, it is about fine-tuning supply, said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.
How much spare capacity is there?
It is one thing saying you want to raise production but a key question is just how much extra firepower Opec members and their allies have.
Bullish traders are warning that by raising output in the second half of the year, Opec and Russia could cut into their spare capacity before the market desperately needs it.
That could actually turn out to be bullish for prices if traders become spooked that there was little left in reserve should another supply disruption take place.
The International Energy Agency said that as of March, Opec had 3.4m b/d of spare production capacity, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 64 per cent of the total, suggesting there is some breathing room.
But many traders think this number is far lower when calculated as output that countries can comfortably maintain with
I suggested on Wednesday that OPEC and their partners (Russia) might look at redistributing the lost production from Venezuela and potentially the lost supply from Iran, was that me getting lucky again?
What do you make of WTI falling harder than Brent today?
4.6% compared to 3.3%, widening the gap even further, does the market think OPEC are moving back, to a degree, of market share rather than price?
The crude oil speculative net positions dropped again this week for the 5th consecutive week.
OnedB suggested the build this week was due to imports, that is not true.
Last week net imports of crude oil were 5.823m compared to 5.755m the previous week, the corresponding period last year showed net imports of 7.457m.
Net imports of petroleum products stood at -2.451m compared to -2.870m the previous week and -2.511m this time last year.
That gives a net position of 3.372m last week, 2.885m the previous week and 4.946m a year ago.
He also suggested US production was stalling, again not true.
It leveled out last week with a slight increase but again the rig count was up this week.
The pipelines are running close to capacity but more containment will come online soon to allow the expected increase in production from the recently added rigs, up by 117 since the start of the year.
That's enough from me, a couple of days away in Spain for me and the family, catch you all Tuesday.
Like I said, it wasn't very encouraging was it?
Have a good long weekend all and those locked in I hope the oil price picks up on Monday
, It's only us Brits, the yanks and I think the Greeks who aren't open for business on Monday.
This is where it seems strange, I am still positive about PMO but I now am brutal with complying with my own stop losses. Capital preservation is top priority and booking 40 to 50p gains on leverage is not bad .....but when the trend goes against you I now always get Out.
I strongly believe PMO will be at a substantially higher price in 6 months time but given the loss of support in oil companies I wanted to take profits.
With shares unless there is a one time change, there is always another entry point in the future.
The big question now is, have we reached a level at which most industry participants find acceptable? At $80 it seems that talks between producers are scheduled to see if they shouldnt release a bit of crude into the market to avoid any panic from consumers, as evidenced by the Indian pleas last week. Certainly it seems that the KSA and Russia are talking with an idea of scaling back the cuts from the joint producers. Khalid Al-Falih said this morning that these were on the table and that whilst no decision had been made yet we will not overcorrect and that the two countries would meet at least twice before the full Opec/Non-Opec meeting next month.
It is a good time to be thinking about the effect $80 oil will have on the consumer particularly in the US where the Memorial Day Holiday on Monday signals the start of the driving season. For what its worth my guess is that if it does turn out to be that $80 is a level to be defended then it pretty much works for both sides, lets see.
Geopolitics heated up a bit overnight with the news that the Trump/Kim summit is off, at least for the time being, no reason why it cant be reinstated another time though although tensions are still high.
The move of the market corrected PMO which had broken out.
Its been a long week.
I was able to sell most of my holdings here above 120p which places me well for buying back in.
I will be surprised if 95p has much support. It is gathering momentum and I think it will become oversold.
Hopefully members of this BB will respect your views in future.
No one always calls it correctly as markets can change quickly. I think PMO is still a good investment.
if you had told them a year ago that the price of Bent crude today would be $76, and catcher was on full tilt at 60,000 bopd, 30,000 attributable to PMO.
The oil price drop from $80 to $76.20 is crazy as well.
Middle east still in turmoil.
North Korea a ticking time bomb.
USA to severely damage Iran exports in coming months.
Venezuela a total mess.
Russia now "liable" for downing of MH17 airliner killing 298 people. See article:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44252150
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.