At the time I did a comparisson between PMO and ENQ, CNE, TLW, FPM and PMO was by far the biggest riser with +65%. The others were at +40%. I was then convinced the rise was orchestrated and overdone and have sold out at that time (ofcourse to early and got suckered in selling some when they dropped the price to the low 90's), but averaged out at 93p. Bought back to early around 70 but at least this time I did not hold all the way down. Let's hope the overhang of bondholders shares is cleared soon and fundamentals and TA will make some more sense again in predicting the SP.
It could seem like manipulation but if you check the sector the shares performed similar. (enquest/ Tullow/ Cairn/ even Shell) peaked at the same time they just took advantage of the situation. However the company did seem to think that the Bondholders were manipulating the price to there own interests keeping the price down. This does not seem to be true.
Those that benefit from keeping the SP lower for longer most are the banks. They know that if the SP went to say 150P the company could raise significant cash at an higher price (less dilutive) and the debt would be a lot lower and they would receive less interest on borrowings.
Although major progress overall I believe the market focused on free cash flow. 74 million usd with higher poo is not a great selling point when we have debt of 2.7 billion and are looking to new major projects.
Silver lining...catcher figures excluded and retrospective not forwards looking
Hi onedb. I appreciate your thoughts on technicals and charting. However , hasn't the precipitous decline from 104p shown that the sp was manipulated upwards to let out the convertible bond holders early?
Much as I love your posts it may have been premature to describe pmo and enq as a cash machine?
However I fully share your assertion that the market is ignoring the fundamentals.
It was slightly one of the highest volume days in a year. You always wonder if something going on behind the scenes. Although most likely some institution is reducing position. Good be forced sale if it is a sector fund which as seen large withdrawals by investorsc and needs to sell across sector.
What's so difficult to understand? It has got nothing to do with the oil price, Catcher, Zama etc. There are still millions of 71p bondholder shares hanging above the market. They sold part of it all the way down from 104p. They don't mind selling part of it below 71p.
One general point though, you mention impairment losses and one-off financial costs. That relates to the past and having got them out of the way my view is that things should be looking up, including the sp. Having dealt with the bad news, that should be a cause for a celebration. These are references to past matters whereas generally a share price is more about the looking into future, where a company is headed. This should a reason for the sp to rise if it is thought prospects are good.
Instead PMO has fallen by around 35% and IMV a fall in the oil price from around 70 to around 63 is not a good enough reason against a background of the hedging policy and 60% of oil production exposed to upside.
I will nurse my losses for the time being but buying more today is too much of a gamble to me.
I will continue to wonder why the sp drove on prior to the conversion and has deflated considerably since.
I didn't check the times etc relating to your comment below onedb1, but fingers crossed the dicotomy that you're describing is what might mark 64/65 as support. As I say fingers crossed rather than anything. I've not added to PMO, although I bought back TLW at 183. I'll wait on PMO as, although 64/65 is currently being defended, I'm not seeing much bull here for the moment (well a little bit perhaps from from Opportunity_Now).
April/ May 2017 , Brent around $54/55 , no Catcher production , no convertible bonds converted to cash , no reduction from $2.8 to $2.5bn in debt , oil reserves lower , and the list is long if I had Sea Lion progress , Zama etc ... oh and one minor detail .. Brent for Q12018 at over $66 . Back then we traded at highs of the same level as today's low .
But look at comparing PMO of say a year ago and today . The 2 are not the same clear to all I thing bar the market price .
If anything look at Rockhopper up today and that can only get going if PMO does well
Maybe someone had to sell for whatever the reason specific to their circumstances .
Where are the shorters ? Look practically zip to be seen . So its not being shorted its being sold by either self fulfilling TA traders like myself or some one had to offload them and it may have been correlated to the CBs . Or its panicked Private investors. Not sure why as the annual report was good , given we've been told our reserves are up. Look if $65 brent is not good enough then we have to give up on PMO and go short. I won't stay long if this falls through even more.
I have to say that I don't like the chart, I have an area of support that was strong resistance that was tested on April 25th, May 25th and July 13th and broken on Sept 25th. It acted as a support of sorts between 4-18th Oct, but didn't really hold. That level is 64-65. I wouldn't call it particularly convincing, but it could act as support in the future (like now). If not, 62 is likely and even the rising tl support that is currently 55/56ish becomes possible.
Here's a messy chart with special 'RimmerView' Glasses.
Fingers crossed , RSI at 35 seems oversold to be and am betting that this may well be a bear trap .
Don't follow me . the last 2 , at 69p and 67.72 are under water . now adding at 65.75 .
After that I will add only on the way up
Even Reserves are up for PMO from 750m to 900m ! Like 150m extra can't be valued at negative value which seems the case now !
Cheeky valuation at the moment look at it this way :
April/ May 2017 , Brent around $54/55 , no Catcher production , no convertible bonds converted to cash , no reduction from $2.8 to $2.5bn in debt , oil reserves lower , and the list is long if I had Sea Lion progress , Zama etc ... oh and one minor detail .. Brent for Q12018 at over $66 . Back then we traded at highs of the same level as today's low .. GO FIGURE .
The price weakness is more likely due to some institution reduction positions. After the bond issue some institutions apparently took over stock issued to converted bond holders and cannot be sure what they are doing with the stock.
. Also the sector in general is fairly weak at the moment (ENQ/TLW/CNE) considering where the OP is at the moment. So II's might be sector selling off and there are a larger proportion of New money in PMO
Here's a link to your 2 previous posts. You can aslo just look for them under authors previous posts.
It would seem to me that with no knowledge, you ape positive views on the up and negative on the down. What an utter waste. You missed a golden, some might say perfect opportunity to keep quiet there. Go away and learn something, it's a better use of your time.
at a time when the firm is the only one moving south (for no reason) when everything else is Green, it does make you to believe this company is so manipulated, that the shareholder might never see their original investment back.
But again, how many how real long term shareholders here?
Management is definitely the issue:
- debt high, cost high, bad communication, poor share price.
The current share price is shaking the already weak confidence to new lows, at least for me. Because with the latest trading update and oil price, there is no explanation for the drop, but manipulations and management lies.
Mike, is there something in the terms for Zama or SL or one of the other undeveloped fields that put PMO under time pressure? Their debt means that if that were the case, they would likely be in a sticky corner.
Mr Rose commented when our sp was 93p that it was significantly undervalued. Debt since 31/12/17 has to be at least 200m lower. Catcher has delivered 1.3m barrels sold above Brent ave price. Our market cap is 25m lower than before the bond holder early redemption.
I really do not understand this sp weakness (oil still 65 dollars) and am amazed that there has been no comment from the company. Is there something they are not telling us.
The share price is being manipulated by the remaining bond holders in collusion with the market maker - Do not be surprised if they are connected entities as was revealed in the last debt equity swap. Plus there is most probably a third entity behind the scenes for whose benefit the shares are being accumulated.
Added to that the current sharp drop is shaking the tree to make the smaller private investors run. Probably, since there is someone looking at coming in and taking over. Has anyone approached PMO to ask?
Yes, it was a bad year 2017 but the share price no where reflected what other similar restructured companies had been through. We all know the greater abuse and manipulation prior to the last round of the bond to equity swap.
One point to note, I think the UK Government may not allow PMO to be sold in the current climate as it would potentially lead to control falling into foreign hands. At the end of the day, the UK has an energy crisis and unfortunately owns very little.
The best that could be achieved is exposing the culprits? I think a couple of hundred call to PMO by investors may force hem to respond. As was the case during the restructuring.
That is a lot better. Hanging man on the last candle, if it finishes that way then perhaps the 61.8% fib retracement is being defended. for me that's quite important, because if it is not defended, I think 55-56 comes into play. For me a lot 'hangs' on how this candle looks at close today.
The board consider a year in which theyve diluted shareholders, incurred $150m refinancing costs, sold assets of $200m just to remain cash-flow positive and incurred hundreds of millions of dollars of write downs a successful year? Okay we didnt go bust, and we had a massive stroke of luck with the drill bit, but 2017 was dreadful for shareholders and that should have been acknowledged.
Rightly or wrongly oil now has a negative view, the threat of substitution is now quite real (albeit overblown imho), and only companies that actually deliver a return to their shareholders have a reasonable valuation. Unfortunately, Premier dont seem to get this, and only promise endless years of jam tomorrow.
My concern is that if the share price does remain in the gutter, someones going to come in with a low ball offer, 110p would probably do it, and the despondent shareholders would actually vote it through.
Folks - this is what Tempus actually says:
......It could still meet its covenants at $55 and has hedged 50 per cent of its oil production this year at just under $60.........
point 1 . Hedging is closer to $60 than $55, and presumably the remaining 50% will be at market value (whatever that turns out to be)
point 2 The co estimates that that it will meet its covenants at an av of (only) $55.
It is imperative they meet the next covenant test.
That They have hedged 50% at ABOVE the level they think meets covenant seems very sensible to me.
That suggest to me ( I am no mathematician) but that if they could meet covenant at $55 and hedged at say $60, that the oil price could fall as low as $50 for the whole of the year and they still meet the covenant.
If true - that looks like good business to me. Meeting covenant whatever the likely oil year price (...surely above $50??) but riding the tail of oil prices above $60 for half their production.
That is what the Tempus article says to me . If it is right, then that gives me great confidence that the next covenant test will be comfortably met.
And if market confidence is low, because of PMOs debt to mkt cap, then any such assurances should result in a higher share price than we currently have.
I am building a good sized position here. I have funds so not worried to back my conviction trades. Plus am just below break even on my trading pot and in the money on my investing one . So am catching up with you !
Need to pay for my harbour view when I decide to finally move out of the UK and enjoy it down under ! London is so congested its insane !
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