Today 17:45 Price: 1.65
pedro57 73 posts
RE: Strong catalyst timeline
We are looking at a very strong catalyst timeline here: 1) Intrepid Mine EGM approval of Kitumba sale (this sale is very likely to go ahead as Intrepid Mines does not have the ability to develop project and they will pay special dividend from the disposal). 2) 121 Mining conference (we should have new presentation and more detail on Kitumba). 3) Interim results in Feb-Mar showing possible profit and better than expected cash situation. 4) End of March (possible restructuring of Orion loans reflecting Tschudi performance and potential small cash payment). 5) Quarterly production update (forward hedging of currency and completion of leach pads will mean decent C1; I also suspect Tschudi expectations are being lowballed). 6) Logiman exit (in next week large Logiman seller will be done stopping the drag on share price). My expectation is that by the summer we will be at 4p level, which was key resistance level a few years ago. Next year 10p or even earlier if most important catalyst converts, quarterly production update in July with confirmation that small change in procedure and full leach pad performance C1 cost for Tschudi is somewhere between $4,000-4,500. Another key catalyst is South African budget in Feb where dire state finances cause drop in ZAR (this is what caused early 4Q17 Rand collapse).
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 19): Valuation of Malaysian equities is far from being stretched despite its gains, but recovery in domestic consumption, oil prices and external demand could be the key tailwinds, according to AllianceDBS Research.
The benchmark index which has chalked up a 4.6% gain since window dressing activities in December has continued its uptrend to gain another 1.6% in the first half of January, amid a global equity rally.
The index last closed at 1,821.60 points.
In a strategy note today, AllianceDBS said although trading at CY18 PE of 16.1 times, which is slightly ahead of the historical mean, Malaysian equities valuation is far from being stretched amid a global rally.
AllianceDBS targets the FBM KLCI to end at 1,870 this year, supported by sustained growth in electronic and electric (E&E) exports, loan growth uptick and interest rate hike, global oil and gas capital expenditure (capex), as well as improved private consumption.
Exports of E&E goods which constituted 38% of Malaysias exports are expected to sustain its growth this year amid synchronised global growth, albeit at a slower pace due to a high-base effect in 2017.
We prefer the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) sector to the technology sector as a proxy for E&E export growth, due to the formers lower valuation and higher earnings growth potential, AllianceDBS said.
Loan growth uptick and interest rate hike post-14th general election is expected to anchor a 10.1% earnings growth for the banking sector.
And as loan growth typically lags the underlying economic growth by two to three quarters, better traction is expected in the second half of 2018 (2H18).
Bank Negara Malaysias more hawkish stance will also benefit banks in general, when it hikes its policy rates, which is expected after the general election.
Brent crude oil prices continue to gain further ground in 2018 and this is a major boost not only to governments finances, but can also act as re-rating catalyst for the ringgit, and oil and gas stocks, the research house said.
With improved sentiment within the global oil and gas value chain, the industry's capex spending is poised to recover at a gradual pace going into 2018.
On the domestic front, private consumption has shown steady improvement since bottoming in third quarter of 2015 (3Q15), as the drag from goods and services tax (GST) eases.
With general elections due this year, the government will likely keep a lid on the rising cost of living, AllianceDBS said.
This also translates into a recovery in the domestic discretionary spending in the tourism industry, besides being boosted by further influx of Chinese tourists.
Top picks are Malayan Banking Bhd (target price [TP]: RM10.70), CIMB Group Bhd (TP: RM7.60), Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd (TP: RM1.48), Bumi Armada Bhd (TP: 95 sen), Wah Seong Corp Bhd (TP: RM1.90), SKP Resources Bhd (TP: RM2.50), AirAsia Bhd (TP: RM3.80), and Yong Tai Bhd (TP: RM2.10).
#WTI Current price just over £15m. Think it highlights again just how far this could go. The potential has also been highlighted for bringing back Centrals Ops too for $10m (10,000tonnes/annum with a 10 year LOM at $2/Ib). Copper going higher would result in many multiples up
I hope Tang wont participate in Blackham placing at all. However I am not optimistic as he did participate in Celamin, which I consider to be a much worse case than Blackham, with 1.32bn new shares costing us AUD330,000 (£192,000) but he let Polo be diluted from 33.23% to 24.19% of total shares. The Blackham holding was only worth 0.38 pence per Polo share before Christmas (and much less now) so insignificant anyway. As a comparison, the Celamin holding after this current placing is worth (at the placing price) approx. 0.1pence per Polo share (!!) so practically nothing - and senseless to throw more money into.
The way I see it they are the equivalent of a corner shop trying to become a " Tesco " as quickly as they can. I am not too sure it is in our long-term interests though if Polo have not got the cash to participate, even if Mr. Tang wants to.
All I see is "4 cent per share" and "62% discount to last closing price" splashed all over their promotional blurb. Why is this "good news"? We are going through homeopathic style dilutions here. This is indeed "transformational" but not in the normal sense of the word used for companies.
Polo is Rerating as investors start to appreciate what a bargain it is. It has moved up in recent days on better volume with over 2 million traded yesterday. Polo was number 11 on the Leader board UP 14.5%. One of its investments WTI continues to rise Up 10% yesterday and number 25 on the Leader board.
Polo s best performing investment of recent times continues to be Hibiscus which was UP 7.8% to 1.12 yesterday another 52 week high. Hibiscus alone would support a share price for Polo of double its current sp.
Polos portfolio is starting to produce news on a regular basis and its all positive.
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