frusset, "has New Scientist had articles about how deep learning networks can be fooled (e.g. a pic that looks like a cat to a human but looks like something completely different to a trained DNN)"
I can only remember a couple of short articles on this. There have been a lot of articles about machine learning algorithms that have resulted in biased prejudicial results for various unforeseen reasons. E.g. software for screening job applicants that only selected similar people to those already employed.
Incidentally I subscribe to ShareScope and SharePad for data and charting as an aid to company analysis.
Rhigos, I haven't held the stock for long. I bought into the falling knife, which now looks stupid, though it shouldn't make much difference in the long run. I checked the financial metrics on Morningstar http://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XLON/REL/quote.html . ROIC has not been far from 20% since 2012. Return on assets, about half that. As you say, more or less, ROE can be high just from being juiced up by leverage. You might know about research from McKinsey showing that ROIC mean-reverted less and more slowly than revenue growth (see https://intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/09/21/the-sustainability-of-growth-vs-return-on-invested-capital/ ).
I used to subscribe to New Scientist, but these days I don't have the time to read much of it. This has nothing to do with Relx, but I'm curious, has New Scientist had articles about how deep learning networks can be fooled (e.g. a pic that looks like a cat to a human but looks like something completely different to a trained DNN). And have they had anything about using GANs for design? There's a rather optimistic statement from the CEO of Nvidia (I'm long NVDA) that using GANs you could design a car with a few artistic strokes, and the details would be filled in automatically.
frusset, I first bought REL in March 2013 at 720. Since then I have topped up three times and took some profits once. They are my sixth largest share holding out of 44. REL has been one of my best performing shares, but SP performance, since their high on 28 Nov 2017 of 1782, has been disappointing. Perhaps this under performance down to dispute with German universities. There are some impressive fundamentals such as ROE 55.5%, ROCE 20.7% however borrowing high with gearing of 209% but interest covered 9.6 times. Gearing explains why ROE so high. My feeling is that shares are now oversold and due to recover. I am a subscriber of New Scientist, one of their publications that I recommend.
I am pleased to see SP now (16:09) up 0.6% on day so perhaps the positive broker recommendations taking affect.
If I was sure of my thesis, I ought to be buying, but it's a complicated world and the only important part of my thesis I'm sure of is that machine learning will be huge.
Rhigos, you might well be right about buying opportunity, but I'm fairly sure you're right to have doubts - "On balance I think". Any more bad news could have a disproportionate effect on the share price.
Shares Magazine https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/why-analysts-believe-relx-shares-are-cheap-and-now-is-a-buying-opportunity mentions a few things, like the stock is seen as a bond proxy, and there's a dispute with German universities about scientific journals.
I think there are reasons why the stock could go lower, though I'm not saying it will. I have a small holding of the stock, because I think machine learning is going to be huge, and it will benefit companies with data. In the earnings call, management said they owned the data they analyze, but didn't explain how they got it. It seems fairly complicated and investors should refer to the earnings call or other sources, rather than what I think. Anyway, the big tech companies like Facebook and Google have loads of data but with problems like fake news, and there's some risk of being regulated in a way that would hit earnings. I suppose Relx owns business data rather than what people think of cats and Kardashians. So far I haven't seen problems with Relx that affect my thesis. BTW I'm long FB, GOOG and other stocks which I hope will benefit from machine learning, though probably with some losers.
On balance I think today's fall is a buying opportunity. I note SP is already recovering.
From link you posted there is this negative:
RELX has an uncertainty problem
The analysts also noted that RELX has an uncertainty problem which it thinks changes the story, which has been about reliability for the last five years.
They said: The uncertainty comes in Scientific, Technical and Medical (STM) (33% of revenues; 40% of EBITA), where a protracted negotiation with a consortium of German universities is raising question marks about future journals' growth.
We had previously thought there would be a resolution to this negotiation and the issue would start to drift away. We have changed our mind after speaking to a handful of industry consultants.
The analysts added: While the comments varied, the overall impression was that the situation will drag on, and it will not be easy in the next 6-9 months to build confidence on future growth at RELX's STM.
Looking over results everything looked positive. Results in Euros not as impressive but apart from flat revenue all appeared up. I do not understand why SP is down sharply, perhaps market was expecting even better results. Anyone got any comments on results?
Nick Luff having a good chat on Bloomberg and it was upbeat .a good explanation about why RELX has done well and why it should continue....trading from 40 countries servicing 120 countries I think he said.....not really worried about brexit.....will continue with bolt on acquisitions...plenty of organic growth....a nod and a wink for a 2018 buy back .a good cash generative business that should continue to be popular with investors I should say
I note from RNS now has 5.59% of issued shares (including those in treasury) in Treasury which will save on dividends payout by about 5.6%, but not so happy with them buying their own shares when they are at an all time high. As my REL shares are held in an ISA I would much rather have a special div.
Transactions in own shares
RELX PLC announces that today it purchased through UBS Limited 170,057 RELX PLC ordinary shares of 14 51/116 pence each on the London Stock Exchange at a price of 1513.4975 pence per share. The purchased shares will be held as treasury shares. Following the above purchase, RELX PLC holds 64,014,232 ordinary shares in treasury, and has 1,080,548,393 ordinary shares in issue (excluding treasury shares). Since 3 January 2017 RELX PLC has purchased 4,598,945 shares.
I'm thinking it might be an idea to sell a few REL shares to take some profits. Will hang on from the moment though.
I note REL are buying their own shares and putting them in Treasury. Not being cancelled so the only advantage for shareholders is that dividends are not paid on Treasury shares so more cash available for dividends. Interesting that they buy shares mostly a few hundred at a time. Today about 200 trades and similar number yesterday. I suppose if they bought one or two big tranches it would push up SP artificially.
A limit order I put on yesterday evening met a good bit below limit I had set. Got them for at 08:012 met at 1393.6 and SP now 1413 to sell so up 0.65% after purchase dealing charges. REL now my 4th largest share holding by value..
bigmacone " I don't know where you got a dividend of 7.4p"
Sorry for delay in posting. Did not notice yours until today. I have no idea where I got 7.4p, clearly wrong. They reported a 14% increase in dividend to 29.7p.
Yesterday saw a new all time closing high which prompted me to look at latest news. This was yet another own share buy back. Looked at figures more closely. Rounding to nearest 10 thousand, Shares in issue not in treasury 1,103.69 million and 72.88 million in treasury so of total number of shares 6.2% held in treasury. Not cancelled but treasury shares not entitled to dividend so that will save company £21.65 million. I assume they hold so many in connection with employers share schemes. They can only buy shares out of profits. http://www.everymanlegal.co.uk/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/Fact-Sheet-Treasury-Shares.pdf
Above article states having shares in Treasury can improve liquidity.
I am a bit concerned at them buying back when SP so high.
Interesting that yesterdays SP of £12.9 x 1104m = £14,241m close to Market Cap of £14,237.6m quoted by ShareScope. So treasury shares do not seem to count towards Market Cap.
REL now about twice my average value for a company share holding and is up 55% on average purchase cost since first purchase 3 years ago. One of my most profitable investments in the last 5 years.
I can understand changing the name if the company had a bad reputation, but this is not the case. It seems strange that widely recognised brand names are considered to be valuable assets whereas widely recognised company names are considered to be so worthless that you can throw them away. I would suggest that changing the name is, at best, a waste of management time.
dxo, "Can anyone explain the reasoning for the name change."
From their web site:
Simplification of corporate structure, share listings,
and modernisation of corporate entity names
Simplify corporate structure
Increase share price transparency
Modernise corporate entity names
While remaining at least cost/profit neutral for the company, without changing the economic
interests of any shareholder, and without affecting any customer facing brand names
Above from this presentation:
If anyone wondered what happened to their Reed Elsevier shares they have today become Relx Group shares. Still shown as Reed Elsevier in 'My Portfolio' on this site but RELX heading on discussion option. EPIC code stays same which is convenient.
SP been under performing the last 3 months. Let's hope re-branded company does better.
"By John C Burford, Author of Tramline Trading, and Editor MoneyWeek TraderIn these weekly articles, I will highlight a share that I believe has an interesting chart pattern. I am primarily a technical trader and use the methods I have developed ..."
SP fell by 7% from last high then today went up 2.35%. I think now would be a good time to buy. I decided not to sell after results. I think REL will hit new highs in the next month or two. In terms of AER of SP, it is my 5th best share with an AER of 26.8% + yield of 2.3% giving an overall compounded total return of about 29% pa for the last 2 years (it is exactly 2 years since I first bought REL and my unrealised CG is 60.8% on REL).
I Rhigos can see the case for taking some profits but on the whole this is a well led company in a growth sector, expanding steadily year after uear. I am going to stay put unless the management changes.
Since 15 Oct the SP has risen steadily with a trend of 218% pa. REL keeps hitting new all time highs on a regular basis. Steady rise in dividends for the last 3 years. Forecast is for profits to rise sharply. Last reported profit for 2013 was £566m, 2014 forecast is £1588m. This justifies PE ratio of 22.
"Alexander Darwall, of Jupiter European, looks to build a portfolio of world-class firms that can sustain profit growth and margins over the long term.Alexander Darwall, who has run the FUND:09QA:Jupiter European fund for almost 13 years, always ..."
Good figures which have driven up SP to 834.75p a very satisfying +4.18% today. Wizzed straight past Deutsche Bank target of 820p.
I only bought REL shares on 4 March and now up 17.6% in 4.7 months equivalent to an AER of 50.9%! (this is total return, I take dividends as scrip) making it my fastest rising share that I have bought in the last 18 months or so.
Looks like SP has further to go up so will hold for now. If I had more shares or had held for longer I would be tempted to take profits by selling some.
'Shares in Anglo-Dutch publisher Reed Elsevier drop 3.1 percent, top fallers on Britain's FTSE 100 , with traders citing the impact of a UBS recommendation cut and the fact the stock is trading without the attraction of its latest dividend.
UBS cites valuation grounds for its downgrade, to "neutral" from "buy", with the stock having leapt around 60 percent since a trough in June 2012, outperforming a 22 percent rise on the UK benchmark.'
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