Traders will have probably analysed the charts etc and seen the resistance at 44p and seen an opportunity to trade for short term gain...good luck with that. This is the modus operandi of bluehorse wotsits, etc.....
Things is...no one knows excatly when and what is happening next (unless operating illegally) and this share reacts in leaps and bounds as we know from past performance. If Borgo traded his bottle of Rothschilds for a cystal ball he may have more luck....
I dont trust my timing to be perfect in terms of buy at the lows and sell at the peaks (that is proven)....BUT minimum SP for me to think about a sale is £2...even then I would feel a bit robbed...£5 and I would be content.
oil price likely to rise methinks after going from $80 to about $78 in last few days. Trump asked Kim to give him a call if he wants to re-arrange. I don't see that happening any more than Iran re-negotiating the nuke deal with America. These people won't loose face by bowing to the USA IMHO. Just can't see that happening. So my conclusion is what with venezuala being in a mess as well the oil price is going only one way. UP. RKH will benefit along with all oilies IMHO.
Sharkeys was full with the regulars. The Blue Boy was in the corner plotting his next pump and dump via his Twitter account. Master Shanus was in debate with the newly employed Monkey on technical matters and how he was forecasting that all of One Legged Petes oil had been lost via a sink hole, deep in the North Falklands basin.
GC Trader and Videodawn were playing pool with the local girls and knocking down the Anchor beers. Pennypunter was looking on mesmerized by the girls. Croft Original and JPDM Fortunemaker were having a few glasses of red wine in the small outdoor terrace.
There were no parrots about. In fact there has never been any parrots in Sharkeys !
One Legged Pete, Rob and the Owner were at the bar. Pete was in a low state of morale. Once again it seemed that he had grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. The Barman was still in the cellar but had sent up a bottle of Chateau Rothchild for Pete. The jukebox was quiet for once.
I nodded at the Cellarman who was serving behind the bar. Seems you and your new mate, the Blue Boy, were right Borgo. I wish more of the regulars would listen to you. I nodded. People forget quickly my many spot on calls over the years and tend to prefer to focus on the oil into water fiasco where we all got it wrong.
From reading many articles online I feel the world economy is a lot weaker than MSM let's on. We've had the longest, weakest 'recovery' in living memory. That 'recovery' only possible with enormous amounts of stimulus. During the 'recovery' sovereign, company and personal debt. has increased. Many people are living off credit with little or no savings.
There's already chatter in the USA that people are cutting down on driving because fuel costs are unaffordable. There surely must be a bank collapse somewhere soon and contagian through the banking system? It could start in any number of places: Italy, Spain, Greece, China etc. I mean look at the US shale 'miracle' - not one of the companies involved in extraction have made any positive cashflow over the last 5 years! They are purely paying the interest on the bank loans. The principle will never get repaid imo. Some joke that the US will become energy independent... Someone is going to get caught with enormous losses. Many companies are staying afloat by rolling over their debt. What happens when they can't and liquidity dries up? 2008 on steroids?? Confidence, by it's nature can turn in a moment. Things like government loan guarrantees are guarranteed until they're not. Bit like solar panel tariffs!
We will desperatly need conventional oil from the likes of Sealion, Isobel/Elaine in a few years because it will be some of the least expensive to extract imo - and for energy security. So I belive in the Falklands story.
I hope I'll get another chance to get in and would have been pleased to add at 25p or less. Strangely I feel quite calm about it. Buy when there's 'blood in the streets' 'n' all that...
The announcement of the lead bank and any update or positive news re Export finance and vendor finance agreement signed and in addition the timescale to FID decreases every day,just a couple of turning points that were not around at $50pbo.
The discussions re export finance have been going on for ages and Portland the advisers on Export Finance have a good track record on large oil and gas projects that have succeeded in getting the moneyvia that route. See their website, interestingly the Chinese feature quite a bit.
POO is stable at above $70bpo, we were good to go at $55pbo on Sealion.
Geopolitical tensions, mismanagement and corruption ( Venezuela, Angola ), and the middle east at boiling point and the unheard of OPEC complience are all added to the mix of uncertain long term supply.
The predators have re gathered in the last few days and just waiting for the herd to come on board.
Don't think we will see 32p or 34p on the retrace imo.
I think you are right, a rising tide lifts all boats, oil price and PMO debt position must also be a factor. There does seem to be a vibe of positivity and the lead bank news will support that further but it's still a long way to FID and a lot can happen.
However there is a "Wouldn't want to be out over the weekend" feel at the moment so this is also sustaining the share price, many have held a long time and are not selling until first oil.
I think that is the answer to the question then, people are waiting on the sidelines to pick some up lower, but not prepared to sell thinking it may go higher with imminent news!
Then others are adding a few on weakness ready to sell off after the news! I'm not sure you will get your mid 20p's thought Mike although maybe close in the Summer Wilderness of the stock market.
Does anyone remember the score with Argos/Noble, do they have to drill before end of 2019? Or did they get an extension? That could be the wildcard that sustains the share price further as surely some deal would be done if Noble are taking a rig there, never mind the possibility of it staying to do development drilling.
We will just have to see, for what it's worth, if we break 40p I think it will quickly go to the mid 30p's an settle there till later in the year when possible further news/updates arrive.
Is the value of RKH not fundamentally related to confidence in FID and eventual field development?
The recent Edison research note on RKH values the company at over 40p per share on a 20% chance of Sea Lion being developed. Could the recent rise merely reflect an increasing belief that it will be developed in line with Edisons research note?
The apparent imminent confirmation of a lead bank will certainly provide evidence in suppport...
In short the price is supported by a gently rising tide of confidence.
Yes, actually very surprised this seems to be holding up so far (that could be the kiss of death in itself!)
No real volume compared to past few weeks, but considerably more than the usual RKH treading water days. Every time in the past few years if we had headed into the high 20p and low 30p range, there has been a sharp sell off to take us back to the 20's. All I can think is there is a positive vibe with share holders that means less sellers and those few who are offloading a few are having them hovered up by those who see positives ahead.
But I can't for the life of me understand why. We know what news is coming it's actually imminent apparently, maybe we could start discussing what our understanding of imminent and that of the boards as the boards understanding of a great deal with PMO is quite different from ours I feel!
Joking aside though are we hanging on for the news that we know is coming, for a possible extra 10-20p on the price before the sell off? Because after the news, what then. I don't think we have heard anything from PMO or RKH at the AGM's that indicate they are chomping at the bit, if anything I still feel PMO want to share the burden with a partner if this show is to really get on the road. Yes they talk about going it alone, they can afford it, the, high oil bringing down their debt, but when looking at the scale of SL and it's various phases and upside, all you need is a drop in oil and slowdown in general and PMO would be clinging on by fingertips with more debt, with RKH then stuck for further exploration and development in it's substantial acreage because PMO just wouldn't have the stomach for it.
So unless there is anything else in the wings we don't know about, then we are either dropping like a stone or the positive vibe hangs in there and the high 30p's to low 40p's is the new norm in anticipation of project sanction. Suppose we will see when the imminent news arrives! 5 days 5 weeks 5 months?!?!?!?!?!?!
Since beaufarts went belly up and few groups of high net worth individuals have had their wings clipped AIM is a little safer .......... the Nominee question not withstanding ............ Be lucky peeps ........... Best Wishes All.x
My chart says previous resistance was 40p if you go back a few years.
Not unusual for a stock to trace back and test a previous resistance level and turn it into a support line. In fact its generally positively healthy as we need to shake out the sellers at this level before we can move higher.
I'd expect a bounce at 40p if we get there. A positive announcement re lead bank and anything from 60p to 100p is possible.
Over the last ten days there have been 47.2m buys against 39.1m sells to me it sounds that the market makers need your shares and will walk them down. Its got nothing to do with fair value its all about trading, if you feel you must sell do so but IMHO this is not at fair value, forget the sums of 2 or 3 quid for now but it should be substantially higher that it is now.
It was on 8 May with your exhortation to take profits at 28p and another "strong Sell". Your new target is 20% higher than the price at that time (and the actual price atm is 50% higher). Two questions - why and when?
I for one would like to see the oil price sit at the current level where I believe it would sit for a much longer period , rather than have a massive surge which would undoubtedly be followed by the same drop that we experienced from 2014/5 onwards .
As a matter of interest , I visited Aberdeen yesterday and friends of ours there, who are connected to the oil industry said that the City is still flat on its back from recession/depression , so It looks as if there is quite a bit of leeway before this up-cycle reaches its peak .
I for one was waiting for the commodity part of the market cycle to start. It's taken a lot longer than expected but it's here now and is set to run for some time, potentially years.
Big Oil got a lift recently and the ripple effect is underway. RKH is not the only one showing some signs of movement in the mid-cap and junior space, at least the ones with some assets.
There has also been little point in posting while the board has been sitting on their hands. Although if I'm forced to be 'fair' over the past few years it's not been the easiest market to raise funds. It now looks like the energy investment money is coming back.
The Americans I've been reading/listening to are now talking about $100 oil. That will be good for a time but as soon as we get it the seeds of a price drop will be sown. It will take longer this time because Big Oil has not be fully funding infrastructure investment since at least 2015, so price wise everything will happen at the margin of demand/supply. I can see a lot of volatility over the next few years but until the infrastructure spend comes back the underlying trend will still be up.
I'm expecting Brent to hit $85 this year but won't be cheering too loudly if it goes much past that. Everyone will get excited but it would not surprise me to see us getting a 'free gift' at some point, a bit like that shaving ad that is doing the rounds.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.