Well, after many years, I'm finding it very hard to justify staying fully invested here so, at just over £45 today, I sold a third of my holding.
With growth in profits likely to be in the order of 10 to 15% going forward ( with eps probably a bit higher than that ), Rightmove, in my mind at least, has moved from being fully valued, to being marginally over-valued.
I'd expect the sp to pretty much follow growth in earnings, so wouldn't be surprised to see the sp over £50 within six months, but as far as risk / reward goes, I'm feeling more comfortable with a few less shares here.
I think the results are due some time in February, at which point it'll be clearer as to whether or not growth is going to "permanently" slow to mid teens over the next two or three years.
"Does a 24% drop in this AIM-listed "disruptive" estate agency LSE:PURP:Purplebricks represent a buying opportunity or reversal to a downtrend?At about 400p after a 514p peak, twice reached in July and August, the stock needs fresh support to ..."
the share will keep going up due to share buy backs.
Why dont others do the same?
Its seems to be an eternal buy back with target in the unknown. That being said, I'm not in, too late for me, but for holders it's likely to keep going up.
We have different investment strategies. You seem a long termer. I appreciate the non linearity of shares. I have already exited my position in right move with a minor profit in the hundreds, not least so I can focus on other matters for time being. I'll possibly come back. I'm also monitoring Unilever to short.
As for Sirius, the net asset value (with much caution built in) is worth substantially more than the debt.
You'll need balls of steel to short this down to ( say ) £35 or below though.
Good luck with Siriius btw, it's an exciting project to be involved in ( i'm not like ) but, when they've progressed the debt financing a bit further, keep an eye on the rate that the debt is taken out at.
Debt of 2.6 billion USD is a fair bit more than the existing market cap over there
"My initial target is the trading band 4000 to 4050."
The key phrase you read over was "initial". My view is there will be bumps on the way but rightmove will go substantially lower.
You're right, rightmove is more inflated than it was when I held the sell view before. Like the housing market itself, like the mortgage backed securities bubble, or any bubble, it often takes a while longer than it should for everyone to see common sense, but when it does so it tends to do so quickly, as everybody races for the exit.
There are several interesting news sources on the page, but the item at 943 titled "Mortgage approvals lowest since January 2015" is particularly interesting, moreso, when you look at the chart, and the low proportion of new purchases and high proportion of remortgages.
The 957, 1001 and 1005 statements by other bodies are also insightful.
You should have a good chance of hitting < £40.50 just on the usual variance so good luck with that. I'm not sure that a hoped for 5% sp drop warrants a Strong Sell but each to their own.
You need to look at the numbers if you think people are holding Rightmove for the divi though, the yield's tiny.
Personally I find the boards which are full of PI's extolling the virtues of small companies or bashing them are best avoided. The sp of such companies tend to gyrate as they're pumped up, possibly artificially, so those boards are full of short term traders, saying one thing, while often doing the opposite.
Nothing wrong with short term trading by the way. If you're good at it, then fair play to you. I'm just lazy and, for example, Rightmove is three or four times the price it was when you thought it was going to go down. The market has quite a few companies like that, and almost all of them have quiet boards.
Peace and quiet is underrated, and can also be very lucrative.
My initial target is the trading band 4000 to 4050.
Notice there are not many PI's on the BB advocating buying this share. I consider it a bad sign if the PI sees no value in it (contrast Sirius which I'm in on and there have been numerous PI advocates). Rightmove is seemingly propped up by institutions, and index trackers, perhaps attracted by a dividend which seems unsustainably generous compared to tapering growth projections.
You're right I shorted at 1200 or so. I lost up to £100 I would guess.
I shorted again at 4250 or so yesterday.
In the intervening period I ignored rightmove because I realised there are a lot of stupid people prepared to feed the housing market bubble.
But it has to end at some time.
Government policy looks to be tightening on btl. Stamp duty has gone up. There's an economic slowdown and people don't (voluntarily ) move in slowdown, they stay put and do up their places.
I got it wrong before. I can take it. And if I get it wrong this time I can take it.
You've been telling people to sell or short Rightmove for years, going back to when the sp was ~1100p. Now, sooner or later, you're likely to be right, but if you've still got your last short open from 2012 then it must be costing you a fortune.
Best of luck with shorting RMV, I'm sure people who are skilled at that sort of thing can make money out of it, but I'd recommend you set a sensible stop loss so, to misquote The Who, you don't get stung again.
Mind you, it might not be far off time to take some profits, but it's all too easy to underestimate the strength of this business
Buying it's own shares overpriced! ...why? Could it be to make it's actual profit, growth, and accounts look better?
The dividend was being maintained as growth is predicted to fall dramatically. Is that sustainable? I think not. But then I thought so a long a time ago!
What effect will a post brexit house market slowdown have?
They are pushing business development in commercial sales because residential has retrenched.
I thought rightmove would see more competition before now. In terms of front end it's not the most difficult business model to replicate. To its credit, the cartel of shareholders in rightmove have probably helped hold it off giving favourable to deals to its baby rightmove compared to the prime location's etc. of this world. How long will it last ? Referral to UK competition authorities ?
If you could set up a share and a time and place for a shorter this is it!
Looks like we got marked up today partly because of macro-economic news and partly because of the ...
"Rightmove's trading in July has been in line with the strong monthly revenue achieved in the first half of the year. Whilst the economic outlook is currently more uncertain due to the result of the EU referendum, the visibility provided by our subscription model coupled with the value provided by our products and the strength of the Rightmove brand and traffic give the Board confidence in delivering expectations for the current year" statement, which has probably allayed fears of a slowdown at Rightmove.
Well, as said in the report, "2015 continued to outperform expectations" and we're still growing at ~20% per annum so the shorters are probably still scratching their heads and wondering why things aren't going well for them. Happy days.
If eps grow at between 15 and 20% this year then that'll put us at ~ 140 to 145 eps, so, as always, not cheap at about 27 times earnings at £40/share. Anything above £45 might have me thinking about taking some profits.
So long as growth continues at a adecent rate, I'm not in any rush to sell mate.
With no news being expected until Feb 2016 ( I'm assuming from what was said in the Interims there won't be an IMS ) the sp will probably drift down a bit, so now might be a good time to short it, but, realistically, is it going to drop much below £30 ?
Each to their own like, but, if you want to short something, I'd say there are better places to place your bets.
"It's been an incredible ten months for LSE:RMV:Rightmove's shareholders, with the property portal's market value all-but doubling in the face of increased competition from newbie OnTheMarket.com (OTM). Even after Westhouse Securities fair value ..."
Consensus forecast for the year was about 10% growth in eps and, by all measures, we're above that at half time
Underlying operating profit : Up 18%
Underlying eps : Up 24%
Basic eps : Up 18%
Even PBT, which isn't in the headlines, is up 13%.
The initial market reaction is positive ( sp up ~3.5% to ~3500p as I type ). My gut reaction is that we can't be far off the time where growth of ~20% is going to be tricky to sustain, so some time over the next 12 months might be a good time to take some profits, but I've been saying that for years.
However, if it nudges over £40 before the finals then the temptation may well be too great to sell 25% or so.
This will be an amazing short ahead of the next housing downturn. The PE contraction alone should halve the share price and if earnings drop significantly, which you would expect, then the fall will be spectacular.
The only really big question is when? With real earnings just beginning to rise I don't think it's going to be in the next couple of years unless interest rates are forced up; but then inflation at these levels would also suggest that is unlikely. So holders may yet enjoy more good times - just don't forget to run for the door at some stage.
Hmmm, all things are possible. We were pretty close to £20 only a few months ago and, barring a major change brought about by onthemarket, I'd say that's the rock bottom floor, with £22 being a more realistic floor
You'd have to have balls of steel to hold a short down to £15. GLG and Greenlight have had a go at shorting us recently, and might have made a few quid, but people have been writing off Rightmove ( pun intended ) for years.
Sooner or later, growth will slow down and the sp will react accordingly, but Rightmove's a household name and will be hard to shift out of top spot.
27/02/2015 - 11:52
Latest Price Chart
FTSE indices were mixed in early deals as a string of big-ticket companies issued results. Mining and utility stocks dominated the fallers' ladder. Oil stocks generally enjoyed gains behind crude's rise, but were overall well off the pace.
Shortly after the open, FTSE 100 was down 1.53 points, or 0.02%, to 6948.2, just below record highs achieved yesterday. FTSE 250 tiptoed up 13.42 points, or 0.08%, to 17,263.2. At 8.45am, WTI crude was up 2.45% to $49.35/bbl, with Brent up 2.11% to $61.32/bbl.
Miners fell behind Lonmin (LMI), off 1.16% to 157.75p. Rio Tinto (RIO) lost 0.88% to 3164p on detail an organisational streamlining to cut costs and hike efficiency. Utility stocks tapered behind United Utilities (UU.), off 0.64% to 938.5p. Several banks lost ground, but Lloyds (LLOY) gained 0.92% to 79.22p on improving its FY profit and recommending a 0.75p dividend.
In the news, Pearson (PSON) rose 1.11% to 1411.5p despite its FY pretax profit falling 20% to £305m. International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) rose 5.27% to 589p as its FY after-tax profits spiked to 1.0bn euros, from 151m euros. Old Mutual (OML) was up 1.39% to 226.3p after its FY operating profit rose 16% to £1.6bn.
Oil stocks on the up included Wood Group (WG.) with a rise of 1.37% to 666.5p, with Cairn Energy (CNE) and Shell (RDSA) behind. Back to the downside, fallers included supermarkets behind Morrisons (MRW), down 0.41% to 195.5p, and commercial property outfits behind British Land (BLND), off 0.24% to 823.5p.
Optos (OPTS) and Nikon Corp have agreed a recommended cash offer of 340p a share cash for the former company. The deal values Optos at about £259.3m, and was at a premium of 30.5% to Thursday's closing price. Optos' shares rose 29.37% to 337p.
ECR Minerals (ECR) rose 13.33% to 0.17p after sampling at Maestro Aguero proved the presence of moderate- to high-gold grades in narrow mesothermal quartz veins over a strike length of up to about 300m. Gold grades changed abruptly along strike, indicative of a nugget gold effect.
Petropavlovsk (POG) said, pursuant to its Feb. 2 rights issue, 3.1bn new ordinary shares of 1p each would be admitted. Shares in the company were down 61.52% to 6.06p. In other news, Management Resource Solutions (MRS) rose 20% to 18p on hiking its H1 pretax profit to A$0.5m, from A$0.2m. Revenue more than doubled to A$11.4m. Its interim dividend was 0.35p a share.
Aeorema Communications (AEO), down 13.75% to 29p, said CEO Steve Garvey has resigned. It anticipated FY revenue to be about £4.2m, with pretax profits of roughly £0.25m. The company continued to look to strengthen its sales pipeline.
Rightmove (RMV), up 6.66% to 2850p, has improved its FY pretax profit to £122.04m, from £97.02m. Revenue rose £167.01m, from £139.94m. Its final dividend was 22p a share, from 17p, taking the total to 35p, from 28p.
The Restaurant Group's (RTN) FY pretax profit rose 7.4% to £78.1m, from £72.7m a year earlier. Revenue rose to £635.23m, from £579.59m. It proposed a FY dividend increase of 10% to 15.4p. Its shares rose 0.69% to 734p.
William Hill (WMH), down 0.64% to 388p, has booked a FY pretax profit of £233.9m, down 9% from £257.0m. Net revenue rose 8% to £1.61bn, from £1.49bn. Its dividend per share was 12.2p, form 11.6p.
Harvey Nash's (HVN) FY adjusted pretax profit is expected to be in line with management's revised forecasts, despite further adverse currency movements since the trading statement issued on 25 November. Cash flow beat expectations. Its shares rose 0.73% to 86.5p.
Other stocks on the move after news included Spectris (SXS), Intu Properties (INTU), Wolf Minerals (WLFE), Berendsen (BRSN) and Waterman Group (WTM).
* Bookmark the links if you wish to 'pass the LINK/s on'.... or read later?
Deramping SHORTERS !
Shorting a rising stock....is much worse when it is done by your resident posters that seemingly are your buddies and convince 'long' holders to give up!
What many pi's fail to grasp is the extent that shorting is taking place. Often we tend to think that the 'shorter' is gone, 'he' is out of the way? You'd be wrong in most cases, for ( he ), the shorter, is often joined by others that keep the stock down !
Some stocks fall after GOOD NEWS!
Shorting or normal profit taking?
The main reason for many pi's selling, is they are afraid they'll be left in losses AND because of the fear of shorters !
Consolidating shares often sees the sp fall as the multi-bagger potential is greatly reduced. Shorters know this and 'get their digs in' with a distinct advantage
Quindell has consolidated 15 for 1 and guess what? The shares are tanking! Probably being shorted again and not just by the professionals. Ordinary investors are having a go as well (if you can't beat 'em....?).
BUT, where does that leave the genuine investor that has put stocks like QPP into their pension funds?...holding losses again!
* Once pi's know the stock is being shorted...they'll SELL UP IN THEIR DROVES !
We can't both WIN !
The 'shorts' therefore 'win' their bets, whereas the 'longs' lose the best part of their investment, possibly for some time to come......and just when you thought this couldn't go any lower, THEY'LL SHORT THE STOCK AGAIN !
* Thanks for all your support. We are now heading towards 5,000 votes!
* Investors are saying something? They are voting in their hundreds !
# The big problem with shorting is that THEY (the shorters) WOULD most likely lose most of their money IF they just 'bet' on the price going down without trying to 'help' it down?
'Catch 22' .... No one would know of an RNS to be released that will contain BAD NEWS, if they did and then 'shorted' the stock, then they are guilty of 'insider trading'.
The only sure way to short a stock and WIN is to spread dis-information to defame the company with help from other posters that are in concert with them. To ENSURE that they don't lose the biggest part of their 'short', ironically, then, they must deramp with (seemingly) believable posts.
* When the pro's do it, they simply get the media or well known 'crooked' tipsters, analysts or brokers to do it for them. (say no more).
# The campaign against shorting is for the benefit of the 'cheated' investors that cannot control their investments due to the dirty tricks played out by co-ordinated shorting !
The results will be reviewed by Govt legislators for further action! The FCA will be asked by Davide Serra to conduct an investigation into short selling practices, with the view to either ban short selling, or to be better regulated !
Truth will out, I suspect. Rightmove data are valued by social science researchers, I am told. Zoopla? I just looked up my own house as an example. It says it last changed hands in 2004 for £X, whereas in fact it was 2006 and we paid £more-than-X Gimmicky rubbish.
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