It's clear by the timelines that the operator had a plan A and plan B. Plan A was always the preferred option and more long term. Plan B was worth a go but even if mildly successful, I think it would have been replaced by the bypass later in the year.
It's a blip and a reminder why it's important to have a number of producing licences/fields that are not reliant on same export lines.
Ok, so they have given up trying to clear the blockage and are fast tracking the new pipeline whilst taking the opportunity to do scheduled maintenance and repair. Remember, it is production deferred, NOT lost, and if we can swap $70pb production for $100pb production later, I dont mind!
I am waiting for £4k to appear in my son's Junior vIsa account and I know where it vwill be invested. Question is, will SQZ have recovered by the time the funds clear at the end of the week. Anything below 80p would be lovely! Down 5% on a day when the FTSE is up over 1% ???
I have managed to add some more SQZ shares about ten minutes ago for 82.23p. I didn't think it would be possible to achieve a better price than yesterday as the market has risen over 60 points today yet SQZ has fallen. I can now look forward to the likely rise in Serica's profile and popularity with the mass. It's happened elsewhere so why not here?
Spot on with your comments there, sasa. All sorts of small oilies are featured in the most popular comments message boards on ii but SQZ looks to be under the radar for most punters. I need it to stay that way until I can make another top up. Then bring on the mass! Another RNS like the last one should do it and it shouldn't be too long before it appears.
Hi casa - no probs; glad to have something going right for us in these mkts...
I read an article in todays Times or Telegraph about the best way to protect your funds when the next crash occurs - the advice being to 'find a share with little or no debt, good prospects to be enhanced by strong management and that is still statistically cheap - the last requirement being the difficult bit!'
No qualifying tips were offered but they should have mentioned this one if they were aware of it , as it ticks all those boxes and then some....sasa.
The move up of the sp this week has been significant but not surprising when the news that has been released is so positive. I wanted to buy more when the price was at 63/64p. I had used my ISA allowance up for last year and didn't want to put it into the trading account so I missed out. I still intended to buy some today but I am in the process of bed and ISA a number of holdings so the cash balance in the ISA account is negative until the process is completed. Apparently ii have a backlog of requests but they all should be completed by the 19th of April.
I'm not too disappointed as it looks as though SQZ has much further to go. I hope there is no news until after the 19th though. This Company has all of the hallmarks of a significant winner thanks to a steady management making wise decisions.
Not that I'm any good with charts but the results have clearly been well received.
Given the eps projections from the BKR assets purchase (with Erskine sorted soon, too, hopefully) the shs remain very cheap statistically, quite apart from anything extra from Rhum 3 / Rowallan / Columbus etc., and the sp could well be in triple figures before too long.
Moreover, with a prospective multiple of 3 or less, one could easily make a case for the shs being rated at twice this price level, given the position they're now in (no debts / $33m in the bank and rising) and on the look out for another deal or two - a rare bird this, imv - sasa.
They are keen to push the further acquisition message:
"Though much of our effort is currently directed towards the transition of BKR operations from BP, we continue to seek new opportunities to add to our portfolio of assets. We believe that the UK North Sea, where there are strategic benefits for Serica, will continue to provide new opportunities to grow the business and add shareholder value."
That, coupled with the application for the latest licencing round should give the potential for some "left field" news in the coming months.....
Agreed, Franconia - thought the extended delay in getting Erskine back on line was a bit disappointing but the by-pass pipeline being installed should prevent recurrence when it's operational again.
Interesting that they reckon there's 3mmboe still available from Erskine, which is almost as much as when they bought it in 2014, so it's been a good acquisition for them, waxing probs, notwithstanding.
Everything else seems to be on track with a successful Rhum re-entry well result, hopefully and then Rowallan coming up likely to spur interest in a couple of months time - sasa.
"The selection of the Shearwater hub as the optimum offtake route for the Columbus field, and our planned submission of the field development plan scheduled for mid-2018 are significant steps towards first production from the field.
Operationally, we are delighted that work will soon commence on the Rhum R3 well intervention and that preparations continue for drilling a well on the Rowallan prospect in which we have a 15% carried interest. A successful outcome in one or both of these projects will have a material impact on Serica."
I am looking forward to all of those positive reports, sasa. In the meantime the white knuckle ride that is the FTSE100 is quite unnerving for some. The vix is alive and well. Today gold fell in price and silver was up. That hasn't happened too often. Ten year bond yields have risen from around 0.5 to 2% in a short time period. Admittedly they are low levels of yield but it represents a quintupling. As the bond market dwarfs equities, there is no wonder we are witnessing high volatility levels. Add in to the mix of Mr Trump's trade wars. Free trade is obviously better for world prosperity but I cannot believe that this trade war will amount to much. I think interest rate levels and potential increases together with the rate of inflation are much more important in their effect on equities.
Hi casa - the figs. out next week are up to the y/e, i.e before the Erskine shutdown again, albeit with a slightly lower throughput announcement than SQZ's earlier forecast from this problematic well.
As annoying as the absence of revenue from this source is, so far this year, the income is only deferred until it's cleared once more with, hopefully, a more reliable solution to the waxing up problem - hopefully, the RNS next Tuesday will clarify progress here...
Meanwhile, the forecasts for this year will likely show what we're already benefiting from vis a vis the BKR assets from Jan 1st, assuming the final 'sign off' in July is perfunctory and with Brent and gas prices both higher than hitherto, they should be encouraging.
Statistically, the shs look very undervalued now, as you say, post the 30% retreat from their 90p 'high' a few months ago, so, fwiw, I'd expect a worthwhile recovery to at least that level again, as the Rowallan 'spud' - our 'free carry' - looms into view - sasa.
I'm underwater with my two recent acquisitions of PAF and SQZ but would like to average down on SQZ. I will have to wait until Friday so that I can start using the ISA account again. I didn't expect the sp to see these price levels again but I think the fall is mostly due to market conditions and the pipe blockage. I'm not expecting market conditions to improve. In fact I feel they will worsen before improving. I am assuming the pipe blockage is only temporary in which case the future news flow should be positive, providing some capital growth to set against a largely stagnant FTSE.
The Erskine pipeline blockage drags on but the income loss, pro tem, should be clarified with these; fortunately, with the Forties field back up and running for a while now (16k bls a day) the transformational effect should be evident / growing apace and one hopes the Erskine problem will be sorted very soon.
Beyond that, we'll have an update on how the BP staff integrations are proceeding, the developments of the three fields / the deal to be formally signed off (early July?) the Rowallan 'spud' coming up, news on Columbus etc., so a lot to look forward to which should lift the sp out of the recent doldrums (all being well)....sasa.
Given its' recent track record, I am not sure that Erskine would be worth much. It also wouldn't look good (to BP or others) if we cant "make a go of it" IMO. Better to persevere and find a solution, even if we lose most of the income this year.
I am beginning to think that serica would now be better off without Erskine.
we now have rhum. which on the face of it doesn't seem to run into the same problems.
at least if they offloded Erskine the balance sheet would improve and they could just concentrate on Columbus.
inmo they will not make anything from this this year as we are already approaching a third month of shutdown and then there is the annual closure during the summer which will probably drag on as per before.also it isn't producing the amounts per day as they envisaged
would anyone hazard a guess as to what Erskine could be worth
Agree that, northstar - the Erskine clearance is awaited with, hopefully, a more permanent solution to its susceptibility to waxing being announced, whereas the Forties pipeline is now back up and running, as per the Ineos confirmation - sasa.
Just before the official opening of the order book, participants submit their bids and offers, sizes etc., and it takes a few minutes for all these to be sorted into a reasonable bid / offer spread, hence some wild pricing initially.
Assuming no price sensitive announcement occurs, an orderly mkt gets going after 5 or 10 mins, so what happens beforehand is academic and doesn't represent a true mkt level - sasa.
Depending on the de-waxing treatment used will depend on how quickly it is dissolved. What we can say is that it will be fixed, so it is a temporary problem. Hot oil is sometimes flushed through, or depending on the location of the wax deposits a chemical dissolvent is used.
It could be that the issue is already fixed.
Regardless, I am convinced that the next Ops update will include confirmation that this issue has been resolved (or dissolved... excuse the pun!)....
Either way the effect on Serica is minimal in the bigger picture.
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