So after todays press release all of the gain made following the previous press release has been wiped out in one foul swoop.
It seems every time we get a decent rise in the share price new shares are offered that eliminate the gain.
Will UK share holders be automatically be entitled to subscribe for the new issue?
Why is it necessary to raise more cash when the recent funding has been agreed?
ps valid points raised. Sold these in two lots, 247 and 177 as could only see drift until 2018.
C diff drug trying to break into an established market, always difficult apparently. DMD drug if it works a potential blockbuster. SUMM burns too much cash for comfort and this is a real concern for me.
I keep watching and will assess whether to buy, funds permitting, during Q4 2017. I think 2018 could be a good year for SUMM, but timescales keep being pushed back, so I would allow a two year investment period.
IMHO DYOR NAI
The article referenced on Interactive Investor states that Summit Therapeutics has 2 potential treatments "both well down the road to becoming proven and commercial products". This is untrue as one is still early stage (proof of concept Phase 2 trial) and the other has completed a Phase II trial. As anyone with any knowledge of the biotech industry knows, it is the Phase III trial which is the main stumbling block for drugs as this is the trial which qualifies the drug to apply for marketing approval and this trial is not even expected to start until mid 2018.
The article also states that "Cash is not a problem for Summit. There was $19.4 million in cash in the bank at the end of January 2017." In actual fact, cash is a significant problem for Summit as a Phase III trial normally costs between $50M and $750M so Summit currently does not have enough money for the Phase III clinical trial for its most advanced product and will need to either raise more money or sign a partner.
This article has been written by someone who does not understand the biotech industry and this is unfair as it is likely to mislead some private investors.
I would also suggest that a notable omission is that the company's CEO, Glyn Edwards, failed in his earlier attempt to grow a biotech company when he was CEO of Antisoma.
"Weakening retail figures and the post-election uncertainty are not a great backdrop for UK-focused companies.The Conservatives have, at the moment, not completed a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party - which probably wants extra cash for ..."
" FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)Â Friday was irritating. It's one thing to speculate "all the action will happen at the open", quite another to glance at the FTSE at 8:01am and discover all the days action had already happened. Our drip target of ..."
Good RNS today to push sp up around 13% to £1.90. The FDA and EMA have agreed with Summit the parameters for the Phase 3 trials. Essentially the authorities want the Phase 3 trial to prove that Ridinilazole is superior to existing treatments, and if successful means that Riddy will become the recommended drug to treat the condition. Should prove to be a very good earner for Summit. Summ now looking for a large pharma to partner the trials which are only likely to start in early 2018. A big name farm in Pharma in next three months should see a big boost to the sp. Such news could coincide with good DMD early patient progress.
IMHO DYOR NAI
Great to see sp recovering from the 140s pre new year. Expect to see C dif deal before end of H1. Progress on DMD scientific or anecdotal could come at any time by end of H1. Would expect to see specialist institutional funds taking a position here in the next few weeks and months as the strength of the science and Summit team becomes better understood.
sp now £2 to buy, still cheap as chips, expect £4 per share for above reasons by end of H1.
At this rate SUMM sp will end 2017 lower than it started. AFAIK the drivers for 2017 will be the C-Dif Riddy drug comparison study as against Fidoximicin and that should be Q1 2017. I would hope that negotiations with farmout partners are paused pending the study result. Could possibly be simultaneous news, or a farmout or sale of Ridinilazole in early Q2. May get some Ezutromid DMD biopsy news in Q2 or Q3 2017. Just cannot see any reason why the sp will rise in next couple of months. Potential is huge here, but clearly, there are long time gaps between substantive good news, allowing opportunities to buy and sell, the decision for the punter is;
is potentially getting the timing wrong on trading less frustrating than watching profits drain to nothing every six months?
A sad indictment of big pharma when Glyn commented in the webcast that no Riddy deal was likely in the near term and that Summit would have to raise money soon. He was hoping the Government would help out. So we have big pharmas swimming in cash watching a minnow biotech run out of cash and therefore have reduced bargaining power having to go cap in hand for public monies. Small biotech has Phase 2 successful anitibiotic for treatment of terrible infection and government has to pay for possible Phase 3 trial. Presumably big pharma then buy in to the finished product with all the massive development cost already incurred.
How does the government (tax payer) get their money back from big pharma? I can see why Hillary Clinton has a downer on big pharma and it looks to me as if she has a point. So if the UK govt stumps up funds for Summit, I would want to see that come back to the Treasury (with interest) when the deal is done.
Interim results out, and look disappointing to me. Cash runs out end of January 2017, so will need to raise money by end of October. Cannot see any Riddy C-Dif deal before the results of a further Phase 2 study against the anti-biotic fidaxomicin are known. It was previously thought this further study would not hinder partnering discussions, looks like those discussions are now on hold. Results of this further study should be known by end of January 2017. So now cannot see any partnering deal for Riddy in 2016. So where is the money to come from to keep the company going? Costs need to be cut, I can now see why the remuneration packages were voted down at the AGM.
"The positive Phase I data evaluating a new oral formulation of ezutromid for Duchenne Musclar Dystrophy (DMD) is extremely encouraging and supports the potential development of an improved formulation. The new formulation will now be incorporated into the ongoing PhaseOut DMD trial with the initial muscle biopsy data now expected Q2/Q3 2017 (from Q1). We are currently forecasting c.$2bn of ezutromid peak sales, supported by the broad utility of the programme across all patients with DMD and in combination with other agents. We retain a highly positive stance on Summit."
sp still only around £1. Appears two options for C.Diff deal, either a full sale or a collaboration and royalty deal. Phase 2 trials successful, therefore I think we can say that Riddy works. The potential market is said to be worth billions of dollars. I would be looking for $250 million up front even with a royalty deal.
The washout period for the DMD patient should have ended and he should now be receiving the drug for a sustained period. Good luck to him, I hope the treatment improves his condition and quality of life.
I can only put this down to poor sentiment in the US towards biotechs generally, as well as the poor performance of our DMD rivals who have reported poor results of trials. Add in the Hilary Clinton downer on big pharma and this can trickle down and affect all pharma companies. Given the likely opposition in the US election a Clinton victory looks favourite, so the pharma bashing may continue. Summit should not really be affected because we are orphan drug developers where there is great unmet need, but as we know markets sometimes don`t distinguish.
There is slippage again in DMD timetable, so into 2017 to see if SMT1100 really works, we may see a deal Q3 re C diff.
SP currently around 97p
Hopefully this is the start of the big rise in the sp that I predicted last year. Summits offering C1100 ( and better versions to follow) look to offer real hope to the DMD boys suffering from it. DMD is life limiting so the company has to use its words carefully so not to promise too much. The company is "thrilled" to offer hope to DMD sufferers and their families. 40 boys now going onto the drug for nearly 11 months, with periodic updates during that time.
IMHO DYOR NAI
"Almost 250 years ago, the English physician Dr Edward Jenner's vaccine for smallpox paved the way vaccinations against disease around the world. A century ago, the Scottish biologist Sir Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin, the world's first ..."
"Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP) and SUMMIT seem worth attention. Firstly, GKP has a BLUE line. Or two.Â This popular share sits in our tables with a bottom potential at 29p, needing only CLOSE a day above 72p to turn such a potential into a politicians ..."
When will we see the big share price rise? I posted last year that I thought 2015 would be a quiet year for the share price and we may well end this cy flat.
However, if both offerings for DMD and C dif work this could rocket in late 2015.
I hope for positive Phase 2 result on C dif say last quarter of cy 2015. I would also expect DMD Phase 2 to be some way in progress by that time. If the DMD children are showing positive signs during the trial, it will be impossible to keep it quiet. The word will get out that
SMT1100 works, and if it does work, there is no way the parents will allow the children to stop taking the drug after the trial ends.
I would expect the sp to rise going into and during 2015 as the trials progress, but the real action in about 14 or 15 months time.
IMHO DYOR NAI
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