"Written 31st January 2018Savills & euro/USD(LSE:SVS)There's something a bit funny going on with euro USD as it appears pretty certain for this pairing to strength to 1.274 with anything above 1.254. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 1.288 ..."
" SAVILLS & EURO/USD (LSE:SVS) There's something a bit funny going on with EURUSD as it appears pretty certain for this pairing to strength to 1.274 with anything above 1.254. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 1.288 where some reversal ..."
Very good numbers if much of the improvement exchange rate driven, as signalled by the company, and encouraging that 2017 has also started well. However, there was a good run up ahead to 885p and so unsurprising some profit taking or lack of buyers today. If the underlying calculation of eps is accepted at 72.5p the p/e of 12 at 867p looks good to me, when I last looked at this a year ago I thought the underlying basis was a bit on the optimistic/aggressive side. On the statutory basis eps is 48p and a p/e of 18, quite a difference, but that basis is too hair shirted IMO. I thought "true" eps was about half way so c60p for a historic p/e of 14.5, if so that still looks alright to me given the quality of the business and record of growth.
I see this stock as meriting over time a rating nearer to that given to global, well managed blue chips with a strong market position, like Diageo or even Unilever, so am holding for the longer term. Short term, the shares might have got a bit ahead of themselves. But WDIK.
Share price might have overdone it a bit short term, up 13% to 782p on the above, but I will be buying back the few I let go if so. Its a quality stock on a very reasonable rating one should be long of IMO, but nobody on iii seems interested judging by lack of posts.
These were pretty good and no overall gloom about prospects post Leave vote. The Numis forecast (guided by company I expect) per today's IC is for 63p underlying earnings per share so a p/e of 10.9 at 690p. OK the p/e is a bit higher on GAAP numbers but the adjustments are fairly acceptable IMO so for an international company with a strong brand and leadership positions, proven good management and a growth record I think the rating is too low and could be up to 50% higher, so have added today. Also a 4% yield while one waits for the rerating. The IC says diversity is helping offset tougher conditions in UK commercial property and the 30% share price fall is over done so a buy.
I agree, but seem to be posting to myself on this one.
Per my previous email, SVS got down to 692p last week before bouncing back to 750p on Remain doing better so if the vote was Leave we can expect at least a similar fall. I don't expect Leave to win though that is my vote but if it did a good opportunity to buy as UK residential is a relatively small part of the global whole, I have profited once from this play and am ready to do so again.
Assume yesterday's drop to 726p is on Leave fears, maybe short term it could fall further but I for one will be looking to add to my holding as this is a very well diversified by geography and activity company with a business model that has delivered and should continue to do so on a relatively modest P/E rating.
One can't expect the growth rate of the previous five years, when eps doubled, which benefited from strong global tailwinds but the growth should still be good enough to justify a significantly better rating than a P/E of I reckon about 13. And there is a reasonable yield of 3.5% as well.
A year ago the shares were £10, I think that would be a more sensible valuation.
This SP has risen quite considerably in the last 6 weeks from a low of 654p to alomost 800p. There was an American fund buying shares and clearly saw an opportunity. The property market is slow and all players are waiting until after the referendum but I think we shall see a rebound after the vote and certainly reach the mid 800's.
Results were good and outlook positive, albeit some headwinds, so I think the IC comment was fair when it said on a p/e of 12 the stock is valued in line with ordinary estate agents whereas the brand and diversification by geography and business lines and record merit a much better rating. A well covered yield of 3.5% is quite good too. Unless there is some slip in expected 2016 revenues, I don't see why the shares should not recover to the £10 level seen in 2015.
The SP has found a floor recently in the early 650's and is now jittery ahead of results. However, I am confident as Savills differs from its peers in many ways.
Winkworth and Foxtons are primarily London based residential agents with little other offering so when the market rtises as does their SP. Savills are global with a multi facet offering. Offices from the Caribbean to Asia and a strong capital markets division in addition to a long established asset management arm.
Prices have dipped in Prime Central London but they have opened far more offices in the last few years so they are not reliant on these individual offices. New openings include Shepherds Bush, Marylebone, Mayfair, St. John's Wood and more in the offering.
Therefore I expect the results to be solid rather than spectacular and maintain that they will continue to enjoy their position as the number 1 global real estate agency.
"It took just four months for LSE:SVS:Savills to offload a pile of German assets acquired when it bought SEB Investment Management in August, and the upmarket estate agent now reckons 2015 results will beat already high expectations. Brokers ..."
"Is LSE:SVS:Savills' soaring chart a signal to board or avoid? Plenty such "quality cyclicals" took off in 2013, then spent a year or so consolidating as investors locked in gains and mulled whether the firms would deliver the anticipated profits ..."
"Housing-based firms Berkeley Group and Savills will report, while Wednesday sees George Osborne deliver his Budget for 2014.Monday 17 MarchEconomic newsMonday will be quiet for economic news in the build-up to the Chancellor George Osborne's 2014 ..."
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