(TRP.L) Tower Resources PLC Buy/Sell

Thanks for your correction, I admit you're right, I made it too simple and what you pointed out is not too pedantic but quite relevant for expectations we can have re Avivi. GL

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Ember11

I agree with you wholeheartedly on the “TRP looks a bit neglected” sentiment but one thing I have to point out. The first drill wasn’t a duster. To quote Peter Kingston:-

“The re-evaluation work, using invaluable information from the well, is providing guidance on where larger and better quality reservoirs may be present.”

The issue with Iti-1 was the amount of oil not whether there was oil or not. A duster implies, in my little head, no oil. There was oil at Iti-1.

I know being pedantic like this can make you sound a bit like a “ladies love pillow”. I think the distinction, however, is fairly important. The information from the first drill provides very valuable information and significantly de-risks the second drill IMHO.

When you state “imo they wouldn't risk money for the second duster” I think you hit on something fairly fundamental. TRP go into this second drill with a far higher chance of hitting the jackpot. As ever, it’s the amount of oil they hit that’s the unknown.

GL and DYOR

TDT

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I've watched TRP recently since the last announcement about agreement with the government of Uganda.After some research I set my buy price at 2.25p which it hit on Friday so I jumped in. Strange that comparing to other oilies TRP looks a bit neglected and forgotten by the PIs. They struck duster in June but they will drill again after analysis which must be v. positive- otherwise imo they wouldn't risk money for the second duster and saving it for Namibia in 1 year's time.
Regarding your question. Before I bought TRP I'd checked HOIL's website as well. They seem doing quite well there. I think it can bring more interest to other co's drilling in Uganda including our TRP. It's very similar situation like with Kurdistan in the first half of this year. There was also successful HOIL in March and then GKP. Striking oil rate was then (before GKP's one) 80%. In Uganda so far, fingers crossed is higher. For 34 drillings 2 unsuccessful- please update it if I'm wrong.
So I hope the overhang from last placing is shortly over, HOIL's success will bring more PIs to TRP and today's SP will be left behind.

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..how will these developments affect tower's sp in the coming days,weeks and months. i am very comfortable sitting on my 2.50p purchase price.
spud1.

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this statement taken from the RNS about participation in the second well to me says news shouldn't be too long now.

9 November 2009
RNS AIM release

Tower Resources Plc has advised that enquiries are now well advanced to acquire a drilling rig to drill Avivi-1 with a planned spud date by 1st February 2010.
Activities have begun to prepare an Environmental Impact Assessment for approval
by the Ugandan Government.

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what is the point in selling £81 worth of shares when you might aswel leave it in for the full duration, whats the worst case scenario, you might lose £20, if your selling because you need the funds then i don't think you should be investing in the first place.

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If you like the prospect use the opportunity to add.

Otherwise why worry when the drilling doesn't start for 10 weeks.

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There are over 1 billion shares out there.

A couple of million traded is not going to move the price and as someone else pointed out there is clearly still an overhang from the 2p placing

Matt

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Posted from the wife's account, sorry for any confusion.

TDT

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TG

But there is persistent selling. Don't forget the recent 2p placing. A large proportion of these share will be drip fed into the market. Its not until that stops that we are likely to see a move north IMHO. I think we are likely to be stuck down below the 2.5p level for some time to come.

TDT

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Well, leaving the PLUS market to one side, I see about 2 million buys vs 800k sells.

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If you want to get an idea of what Tower are expecting to achieve with Block 5 keep in mind Peter Kingston’s comment after the first drill:-

“If a discovery, it would be quite small and would not be on the scale of Buffalo/Giraffe, which is what we were hoping to demonstrate.”

In other words they are hoping/expecting to find oil on a par with Buffalo/Giraffe. If anybody needs reminding of what that is I’ve copied and pasted the below from the Heritage web site.

Of course, there is no guarantee that they will hit oil this time round. I think it reasonable to assume, however, that te second hole stands a better chance than the first.

TDT

Block 1

On 13 January 2009, Heritage announced the successful Giraffe-1 exploration well which has unlocked the multi-billion barrel potential of Block 1.

A seismic survey comprising approximately 670 kilometres of 2D data was completed in Block 1 in February 2008. This has helped to work up further prospects in the Block that were not initially included in the assessment by RPS Energy. A three well exploration programme in Block 1 commenced in September 2008 with the Warthog-1 prospect.

On 21 October 2008 Heritage announced the successful Warthog-1 discovery which had a gross hydrocarbon-bearing interval of approximately 150 metres with 46 metres of net hydrocarbon pay. Wireline logging and formation pressure measurements indicate 31 metres of net oil pay in the principal oil-bearing reservoir section, overlain by 15 metres of additional net hydrocarbon pay comprising, most probably, volatile oil, condensate and wet gas. The well was drilled to a total depth of 911 metres.

On 16 December 2008 Heritage announced the successful Buffalo-1 discovery which had a gross hydrocarbon-bearing interval of approximately 123 metres, with approximately 43 metres of net hydrocarbon pay. Wireline logging and formation pressure measurements indicate 28 metres of net oil pay in the principal oil-bearing reservoir section, overlain by 15 metres of additional net hydrocarbon pay containing gas.

The Giraffe-1 exploration well encountered a gross oil-bearing interval of approximately 89 metres with net oil pay of approximately 38 metres. Downhole pressure testing and sampling have confirmed the presence of moveable oil that was recovered to surface and log interpretation indicates excellent reservoir quality with porosities of up to 30%.

Pressure and seismic data indicate that the Giraffe discovery is structurally connected to the Buffalo discovery creating a combined Buffalo-Giraffe complex covering approximately 48 square kilometres with an oil column of approximately 140 metres. Based on current mapping the Company's initial estimate of reserves for the Buffalo-Giraffe complex is over 400 million barrels. The Buffalo-Giraffe complex may extend into the Buffalo East prospect creating one very large structure of up to 90 square kilometres.

The Warthog-1, Buffalo-1 and Giraffe-1 wells have all been suspended as potential future production wells.

There are many other prospects and leads mapped within Block 1 from over 600 kilometres of seismic data acquired in the licence during the past 18 months. The data give the potential to find additional substantial quantities of oil. All these prospects and leads are characterised by similarly encouraging seismic amplitude anomalies as those seen over the successful Warthog, Buffalo and Giraffe discoveries, and represent further additional multiple drilling targets within the block.
Heritage plans to undertake a six well exploration and appraisal programme in Q4 2009.

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193,745 traded on Plus today.

What makes you think this is being held down?

TDT

Trade Date Trade Time Price Volume Type Considerations
18/11/2009 15:47:47 2.35 13,510 NB 317.76
18/11/2009 15:23:33 2.36 21,000 NB 495.39
18/11/2009 15:23:12 2.36 21,090 NB 497.51
18/11/2009 14:38:51 2.36 16,265 NB 383.69
18/11/2009 13:26:10 2.36 10,000 NB 235.90
18/11/2009 10:54:19 2.36 100,000 NB 2,359.00
18/11/2009 09:06:53 2.37 11,880 NB 281.08
17/11/2009 16:18:46 2.37 50,000 O 1,183.75

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Has any one got figures from the PLUS market?

I see over 2 millions buys today...

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I hope so... alot of Buys going through though.

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I wonder if tower manage to secure a rig for cheaper, i'm sure we'll find out soon enough which should pump a bit of life into this share. Come on TRP wake up!!

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How much more overhang could there be?

Mid price is 2.38 - but I can purchase at 2.368 at the moment.

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still an overhang from the 2p placement around imo


Matt

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All the 2.37's that are reported as sells are actually buys.

Over 800k in buys went through with only about 12k in sells. I've not checked the PLUS mkt, but it seems to be that it's being manipulated. Although to be fair 820k is not alot of shares in the grand scheme of things - just can't work out why it's been a red day.

Irrelevant come February though :-)

All the best

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Head of Research: Julian Tolley

Analysts: Amisha Chohan & Andrew McGeary

Small Cap Research Team, Hoodless Brennan



Friday 13 November 2009



Tower Resources (TRP, 2.45p, £25m) announces that a second well will be going ahead with a second well in its Ugandan concession. This is quite a turnaround for the company which failed on its first well but then found sufficient reason to continue in its re-evaluation of the data and is to the credit of the resolution of its management. The company is now seeking a rig to drill Avivi-1 with a planned spud date of 1st February 2010. Global Petroleum which funded most of the cost of the first well Iti-1, has decided to maintain its 25% earn in by funding 25%. While this still remains a little too speculative for our liking, there are once again potential share price catalysts. The main issue with Tower is that its funding has allowed only a very limited exploration programme. There is also a longer term story in terms offshore Namibia (in which the company is free carried on initial drilling), but this is still some way off. Thus while too speculative to encourage participation it is also too near term drilling to recommend selling. HOLD

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