re "Share has done so well over last 12 months maybe time to bail out just prior to Ex Div?"
... and the sp is continuing to do well !
Although I still intend to sell up before we go ex-divi, the old adage about letting your winners run comes to mind, so I may well be cutting my nose off to spite my face by doing so !
The only obvious danger with divi dodging is that, between you selling up and then buying back, if the drop in the sp between those times is less than what you'd expect due the ex-divi part, then you might not save enough to cover the withholding tax.
For me, though I like TUI, and have held them for a number of years going back to the pre-merger times, I'm not particularly attached to them, so if i lose out be reducing ( and, lets face it, I already have lost out ) and then selling up, I'm not bothered about it, I just find the withholding tax annoying and time consuming to reclaim
Results were marginally better than expected, and it's good to see the guidance of 10%+ growth in EBITA being extended in time, but I still took some profits earlier here by selling roughly a third of my holding at a bit over £14.
If it wasn't for the fact that reclaiming the withholding tax was such a pain in the posterior, I'd have likely held on, but I'm going to give "divi dodging" a try before we go ex-divi in February, and will likely sell up totally before the ex-divi date, with a view to possibly buying back once the sp has gone ex-divi.
Also, I was buying back in the days when the sp was between 5 and 8 quid, so it's probably time to take some profits anyway.
TUI delivers full year earnings growth on strong demand for hotels and cruises
07:52 13 Dec 2017
TUI expects 10% increase in underlying earnings in the current financial year
TUI's carrier was hit by a high level of staff calling in sick during the year
Travel operator TUI AG (LON:TUI) delivered growth in underlying earnings in 2017, driven by a strong performance in its hotel and cruise division.
In the year to 30 September 2017, underlying earnings (EBITA) came to 1.1bn, up 10.2% on last year at actual exchange rates or 12.0% at constant currency. Turnover edged up 8.1% on a reported basis or 11.7% at constant currency to 18.5bn.
The hotels and cruise unit was the star performer with underlying EBITA up 131%, helping to offset the impact of higher than average levels of pilots and crew calling in sick at TUIs carrier TUIfly at the start of the year and Air Berlins collapse.
TUI took a 15mln hit related to receivables for aircraft and crew leased to Air Berlin, which filed for insolvency in August.
Return on invested capital (ROIC) rose 1.7 percentage points to 23.6%.
The dividend was raised by 12.0% to 0.65 each.
Looking ahead, the group said it continues to expect to achieve double digit annual earnings growth with less seasonality, strong cash conversion and robust return on invested capital (ROIC) performance.
In fiscal year 2018, TUI estimates a 10% increase in underlying EBITA and reiterated its guidance for at least a 10% underlying EBITA compound annual growth rate through to fiscal year 2020.
We have a clear ambition - strong strategic positioning, strong earnings growth and strong cash generation, with underlying EBITA doubling between FY14 and FY20, TUI said.
TUI said winter trading was in line with expectations and has seen an improvement in Turkey.
On Brexit, the company said it has put contingency plans in place to manage a potential disruption to its operations. UK airlines have raised concerns that leaving the EU without a Brexit deal would mean losing all flying rights to the bloc.
TUI called for a transition agreement after Brexit to ensure a smooth transition.
Despite the Brexit backdrop, the UK continues to deliver a resilient performance in line with our expectations, the company said.
'Due to the very high volume of applications within the DBA with the UK and due to the Brexit I have to inform you that the processing time of the o. G. Application for several months from receipt of the application'
Application confirmed received 7/9/17.
Will just have to sit & wait. In meantime SP continues to rise.
"Prior to its collapse, Monarch employed around 2,100 people and flew 6m passengers each year. Its holiday tour arm had annual volumes of 200,000 per annum."
I'm not sure we'll make all that much from people changing flights, but the 200,000 holidays per year that Monarch were selling are now up for grabs. On the whole, I'd guess your average Monarch holiday was cheaper than your average TUI holiday, so Thomas Cook may well pick up more than we do, but it should certainly help our margins.
As an aside, I finally got round to filling out the paperwork for reclaiming the divi the other day, so it'll be interesting to see how long it takes to get processed. What I intend to do going forward ( if I remember ! ), is to do a bit of divi dodging. So, sell up before it goes ex-divi and then buy back soon after. Obviously there's a risk that the sp might not drop by the divi amount and I lose out a bit, but spending £20 or so on dealing charges to avoid having to fill in, and possibly chase the paperwork for reclaiming the witholding tax, seems like money well spent !
Looking at the PDF linked from https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2017/ir-news/20170928, it all seems pretty much the same as the last update, with >= 10% growth in EBITDA expected for this FY and no change in expectations going forward
BB - still holding, but perhaps I should have reduced a bit when the sp was pushing 1340p
These ( https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2017/ir-news/20170810 ) were marginally better than I'd expected and re-iterated the guidance of >=10% growth in underlying EBITA which, along ,with the kind of upgrade ( to Neutral with a price target of 1300p ) from Credit Suisse, seems to have given the sp a bit of a lift.
It's getting perilously close where I'm thinking of taking some more profits here
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.