#The Envia plant is up and running and producing 200 bpd looking to move up to 250bpd and moving to profitability in Q2.
#RIN accreditation submission has just been formally made which should add a premium to each gallon produced.
#Mississipi site and Adams county chosen with circa $60 M of incentives for the next plant.
#Deal with British Airways and Suez Group announced.
If it was 50p everybody would be half happy
Should it have been at 10p or be sat at 10p. No and No.
Should it be 20.38p. Yes It should on an adjustment basis.
Is it worth more than 10p on paper. Yes.
It was £40 Million before now valued at £15.38 Million. Exact same assets and deals.
Apologies for the lateness of the reply. I was active on the Interserve bulletin board this morning and out for the afternoon.
VLS could survive as a business on a part of the monies raised but yes they do need it hence the fundraising. What they estimate for working capital purposes is in the RNS. I think its about 4 odd million which should take them through to profitability from the plant in Q2 so its about a quarter of the monies raised.
The reasoning for the remainder is listed also, essentially its for business development of a new second plant in Mississipi.
I am not trying to kid anyone on anything. Its there for all to read.
I'm glad though that you think that way for if everyone thinks like you then if they pull it off and are successful with the Placing and Open Offer there should be a good boost.
Did you get a chance to read the earlier article. I thought it was quite well researched and cobbled together.
31st January should be an interesting date for many reasons.
1. Firstly because Placings and Open offers are never guaranteed success. You would expect the share price to rise if the company is successful in raising its monies as any uncertainty will have ended.
2. If it is successful and oversubscribed then that would mean that some who applied for extra shares never got all the additional shares they requested and may have to enter the market to make up any shortfall.
3. On that very day a company that is presently valued at only £15.751 Million will have raised an additional £17.1 Million net of expenses onto its balance sheet, a sum that is more than its present market capitalisation. So in theory worth double and a little bit more its present value.
4. If its unsuccessful then I presume we head back to 27.25p
Such is your intransigence that whereas I previously thought you were a disgruntled shareholders I am now thinking that you sold yesterday about the bottom and thought you would rubbish VLS get back in at the 8p level or cheaper still. In fact I think you even posted something along those lines
That I think won't happen as you are absolutely, completely and utterly wrong.
The share price should be settling somewhere in the middle in a weighted way. I even provided you with the formula to work it out and another poster confirmed it.
Then on top I showed you the JV plant and operation worth many millions of pounds and a link to the present market capitalisation (which will barely have changed) and which is still less than the fundraising monies. There is no present value attributed for the Envia plant joint venture. It doesn't even reflect the full fundraising monies.
Incidentally this mornings RNS is also good news for the company for if it achieves top end RIN values then that should assist considerably with the company attaining profitability at Envia in the first half of this year.
Correct, the company value doesn't reflect the fundraise yet. When it does, the shares will be worth... 10p. I tried to explain this yesterday to others on here, but was banging my head against a brick wall.
If you want to read something a bit more perceptive then I would have a read of the board over on ADVFN. Some of those guys post on here occasionally:
I haven't had a chance to respond to your drivel properly yet (there has been so much), but the fundraising hasn't happened yet.
You are the very epitome of the saying that "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" and I will aim to respond fully once I have time so that any newcomers to this board (and any experienced hands) have something that is a bit more measured to provide a counterweight to this garbage.
Anyone who is reading these is STRONGLY advised to not be taken in by this ill-conceived clap trap.
The shares haven't been issued, the cash isn't received, it isn't reflected in the market cap. Simple as that.
I have read the VLS News Release and struggle to understand what seem to be conflicting statements:
"In addition, all of the Open Offer Shares have been conditionally placed with two of the Company's existing Shareholders, Henderson and Lansdowne,..."
We are also pleased to include an open offer element that allows shareholders who are resident in the United Kingdom to participate
Should the second statement refer to "...two select shareholders who are ..."?
Am I missing something?
The number of shares before the fund raise was approx. 148m based on company value or 143.981m based upon 2017 mid accounts. This means that the current company value of £15.8m does not include the new money. After the new money comes in we will have approximately 332m shares and a value of around £33m meaning that the shares will still be worth 10p.
I don't see the SP going anywhere except down until it proves it can actual make some money. I have been a shareholder since March 2012 and seen numerous mirages appear and then disappear. I have always been haunted by why, if the company is really a money spinner, Mr. A doesn't just use some loose change to buy it.
It reminds me of an old love who has now grown old. I still see the vague shape of the beauty that used to be there and therefore am unwilling to let it go, although I know I should!
Strategic partner on board bonzo and at a guess start thinking Sun factor 3 or 4.
Btw my top up this morning has not shown. That's a full day yesterday of buys being masqueraded as sells whilst someone was in Dyson mode and now today buys being hidden. If I were a betting man I'd say someone out of the placing circle of friends is loading up to average down. Not happy with their 3 for 10 entitlement 3 for 10 they are after a more sizeable 10 for 10 or thereabouts.
Dust to settle first and then hopefully a realisation that its far and away miles too cheap.
Dip out from here and off to find another few I think may benefit from Carillion's demise and to keep tabs on the watchlist.
Bonzo these plants make jet fuel and diesel and you can't build them out of lego sets.
Be happy though because that and intellectual property on the process means unlike your average corner shop nobody will be setting up business right next door to them. In business its called a moat and barriers to entry and the unique selling point (USP) with VLS is the that the smaller scale makes them cheaper and more viable.
They are looking for a Strategic partner. If you had actually spent 2 minutes watching the video earlier and the links you would have clicked that it was Envia Energy in a JV in Oklahoma and on the BA deal it is Suez Group and Norma - which is another affiliate company associated with Roman Abramovich.
It won't be 10.5p and under even its fundraised monies and all the rest for free when a JV partner comes along.
Its not just cheap - its ridiculous with a Capital R.
The current fundraising is not sufficient to finance the next biorefinery so further finance will need to be raised in one form or another in future. The political uncertainty caused by a President more sympathetic to coal than renewables remains. The strategy of building lots of refineries is going to take lots of capital (to be, I realise, provided by partners who have not been visible so far) and many years. So I shall continue to wait and see.
The company has announced another funding, today raising £18.4m through a firm placing, a placing and an Open Offer. This will fund the latest strategy which is to enter the renewable fuels market and develop their second biorefinery in the US. They expect FID on this in mid 2019 so there is plenty of time to assess the new strategy. I recently met with CEO David Pummell and he has what can only be described as significant enthusiasm for this project and it certainly seems to have some legs, lets wait and see
I think that's because the new shares haven't been issued term so there are millions of shares to float at issue price, hence the market cap needs to be calculated on current and to be issued shares x share price ..
I still feel it is undervalued and after issue will still have far less shares than a lot of aim companies
OWT. Saw your rec on WSG site and did some research including your fag packet calcs here which seem quite sensible in terms of the value of the company Friday v. Today.
Interesting business model for the future. As such I have taken a small 26,000 shares position this morning.
I missed the qualification date but have now got a healthy slice of what I think is a really cheap stock.
I'll be extremely surprised if all those shares are not gobbled up what with Mr Abravovich's investment vehicle committing to 40 Million already and also able to participate in the open offer which being for a total of £4.4 Million is just over the £4 Million he / they have committed to in the placing part.
The market makers have treated this stock woefully today in reducing its value by 2/3rds and failing to take into account the Envia plant just about to reach profitability and some other massive milestones reached last year.
One minute £1.00. Next minute 10p and this is meant to be an orderly market ??? Indeed virtually every buy I have had today will have been logged as a sell.
The theoretical ex-rights price is there below but don't be surprised if fully loaded the Market makers take this up to around the mid region of 15p for the 10p Open offer side to be seen as the bargain that it is. I watched similar events with Tullow Oil.
I genuinely feel for those that have been stopped out this morning but do think that if you believe in the company that the market makers inadvertently have opened the door to a whole raft of new investors and those topping up.
Lets put this in a plain and simple language. On Friday you had a share that was valued at £40Million with a share price of 27p. adjusted and with an extra £18.4 Million it should be reduced by the underside of 1/3 . That's a Lot higher than 10.5p in anybody's book.
No wonder Mr Abramovich's investment managers are in fyb mode.
Donatron. Its effectively a Placing and a Rights issue , call it an Open Offer if you like but you only have the right to buy the shares if you held on the 11th and your rights are a meagre 3 for every 10 already held.
If you were not holding up to that time then you don't have the right to subscribe.
It's not a rights issue, you silly goose. Also, my fundamental point is that the pre-placing market cap must have been fundamentally too high or the new shares wouldn't have needed to be placed at such a high discount.
Here's a simple real world test to see who is correct. It's great because even someone as stoooopid as me can do it.
Look at the current share price.
Is the price hovering around 10p as I say it should, or is the price hovering around your rainbows and unicorns "adjusted" price (take a look at your fag packet if you need to remember what that is).
Given what you (presumably) know about supply and demand, consider why people (not to mention institutions) aren't clammering to buy something for 10p that is really worth 20p. Wouldn't the price race up within minutes of the market opening until there are no more cheap shares left to buy?
This leads us to two conclusions. Either you're wrong (but you've made it very clear that isn't the case), or you're on such a high intellectual plane that us common folk aren't capable of beginning to fathom what is right in front of our eyes.
Having had a quick read of the RNS it is stating that Roman Abramovich's investment vehicle Ervington Investments is committed to taking 40 Million of new shares in the placing part of the deal, so that is £4Million indirectly from Ervington / Abramovich.
I also take it that being a large present holder he will also be able to apply for his 3 for 10 rights and any others he wishes if there are any left. Personally I don't suspect any will be.
Bagging cheap here and elsewhere will no doubt be part of why these people become Billionaires. That plus patience.
I can't help you any futher Donatron as you clearly don't understand things.
Look up theoretical ex rights price or similar and then come back and apologise to all on here. There are various formulas out there that show you how to work it out. I'd done a fag packet calculation myself.
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