There is some interesting research around stock selection and recognition heuristics (rules of thumb).
Whist the stock selection part of this isnt relevant to VRS there is an argument to suggest it works in another way.
Not from investors, but from the perspective of potential clients. Yesterdays standoff at the twit corral highlights this.
The negative argument is that VRS is another little fish in a big pond (ignoring the failings of this argument when it comes to the ISO factor). But as the company gains more traction the momentum around recognition in their niche field grows.
From the point of view of potential clients are you more likely to shortlist the company youve never heard of, or the company youve heard something about?
If VRS continue the current trajectory, it is likely they will reach a tipping point where they become the most recognisable brand on offer. Some might argue thats already happened.
This might be too esoteric for some; unconscious processes in decisions are contentious. But in my mind no more so than doing-the-math on a bunch of figures and trying to account for all manner of variables that are all but impossible to determine.
Twitters grand inquisitor, (whom, to paraphrase one of his of his support acts: a monkey with an incomplete personality assessment could deduce is suffering from heroic delusions) is assessing so many variables that hes got paralysis through analysis. There will be no way to shift his point of view (and to be fair I wouldnt want to rule out the remote possibility that NR is riding a rocket to a memorably intricate investor fraud) but hes forgotten human behaviour.
In a week where Carillion went bust through repeated human error (fooled by randomness?) it is timely to remember that its all a lottery and everything is surprisingly fallible. Managing exposure to risk is time more productively spent than too much focus on loud opinions and herd mentality; whether youre a private investor, CEO or playing with public funds.
"I sleep easily in my bed at night whilst the shorting gang will spend the weekend worrying that there might be another barnstorming RNS on Monday. I know which camp I'd rather be in."
Tot....I also sleep very easy, although following yesterdays twitterstorm, I did feel everything was getting a little out of hand at one point. Our discussions on 3i have been level headed and non-acrimonious but over on the VRS board of ADVFN, nastiness has crept in at times although a degree of calm has appeared on there overnight.
NR has constantly parried the loaded twitter questioning with positive and realistic answers. He knows best and we as shareholders must recognise that there is far more going on behind the scenes (Commercially/Legally/Contractually), than we are ever privy to know!
Keep up the good work NR and VRS!
eyeson........sleeping well and keeping the faith!
I think people need to be aware that the sole purpose of this thread is to undermine confidence in the company. Easy Brent is clearly closely aligned with Kempster and the even more odious WShak, who have been making NR's life a misery on Twitter. The patents are far less an issue than compliance with the new ISO standard, and so far as I am aware VRS are the only UK company who are currently able to meet that standard.
What is abundantly clear is that the company is in exponential growth, securing business with giobal corporations, and set to dominate an industry which is still in its infancy. In that context the current market cap of the company is peanuts when you think how many companies have achieved much higher market caps purely on potential.
I sleep easily in my bed at night whilst the shorting gang will spend the weekend worrying that there might be another barnstorming RNS on Monday. I know which camp I'd rather be in.
Even before Easybrents thought provoking post, I have always thought that patent information should be in the year end report. Sometimes it takes a lot of digging to find out when a patent expires for a company etc.
Is it too much to ask for all companies to publish patent details of their main current products that are for sale (not future product pipelines) - patent granted date, product name and expiry date in a simple table format
Anyway a day nearer the China deal........hopefully. The question is once signed, will we be overvalued or undervalued at 92p?
I have gone onto the EPO website. There are 3 patents listed when searching for 'versarien'.
Which includes 'Porous metallic foam and related methods of production ' patent.
7 Sep 2015 Versarien sent out a very important RNS saying that 2-DTech already holds European patent protection when reviewing this information, it is clear that 2-DTech only patent application in Europe is deemed to be withdrawn.
Its very odd that the company hasn't sent out and RNS last year when it was informed by the patent agency that the application has to be withdrawn. As the company thought this patent was very important when putting out information about it on the 7 Sep 2015 RNS.
Its a big question mark if Versarien has any IP protection at all?
Nr's tweets do make me a little nervous but currently he is countering Q's raised pretty well. I do think though the patent thread is above and beyond what should be aired within twitter and Tim K is certainly becoming extremely tiresome!
I did notice this little gem from NR during last nights twitter tirade:
'You've been gone for hours Neill. I'll expect an RNS in the morning lol...'
....to which NR replied 'I was told not to put out RNS's on a friday '
I wouldn't let his tweets put you off the company - think his achievement speaks for itself. He likes to tweet about his family, his past times and has also invited investors for a visit around his sites. |At first I was also a bit worried about his tweets, but I've got over that and as long as he doesn't break any regulatory rules, then it's fine with me.
Agreed, I think he is overdoing it however I do appreciate his honesty and forthrightness . I was surprised to read VRS sponsor their slots on Vox markets, that set me back a bit wondering just how much hype is in the price. I sold out on a stop loss at 66 was lucky enough to bag a limit order at 54 then dumped the lot again at 87 when I read the Vox related tweet. Now in limbo...
Does NR need to change tack with regards his Twitter setup? I don't particularly want it to be entirely a back slapping channel of communication but should questions about patents be held on such a public forum? A personal e-mail to the CEO would be suffice in my opinion.
Is it time for Neill to step back from his current Twitter modus operandi and do a newsletter fortnightly or monthly for those that sign up and he can select questions to be answered / give an overview of whats happened within VRS.
No direct link to VRS - but wider implications/utility for graphenene.
Guardian reports: Norway aims for all short-haul flights to be 100% electric by 2040.
As weight is currently a problem - apparently there's a material that will help that.
As power is also a problem - word is there's a material that can revolutionise cell efficiency.
No doubt drag improvements will be addressable too.
Perhaps the Norwegians will be after compelling evidence from a company who already supplies the aviation industry?
Lack of volatility yesterday?? It tanked down to about 81 in the morning. Large II orders were then filled judging by the late reported trades and up it came to close at around 91-92. I took advantage and bought some more @ 84.
Currently testing the £1 barrier again today. Will get very interesting if it breaks through, and there does seem to be plenty of scope for it looking at the TA indicators, but it might take a day or two.
I hope VRS have everything tighter than normal re these. I have experience with the Chinese and they make up their own laws when it comes to copying things and promising the world for their own greed. Better to get a watertight agreement than jump in with enthusiasm to find out graphene factories appearing all over.
President Xi is now into his second term and his power is increasing. He wants to be remembered as one of the all time great Chinese leaders. What he wants, he usually gets.
Any company wanting to open a factory in China, including the multi-nationals, has to enter into a joint venture with the Chinese. If you dont agree to that your application will fail.
Versarien would never be allowed to open a Chinese factory without the Chinese being involved as a partner, it just wouldnt happen.
If you accept that then the deal that has been agreed by Neill in China couldnt have been much better.
Had Neill returned with the deal and updated the market that Versarien needed to raise £20m through new equity to put into this venture, shareholders would still have thought it was good news.
In the event there is no financial outlay by Versarien at this stage.
China has made the decision that they want to build a graphene valley and they have chosen Versarien as a partner they want at the centre of it. To that end they will make sure that the deal is attractive to Versarien, as it is in their interest to do so.
To think that Neill could fly out there for a few days, sign a deal and come back with all the answers, is I think a bit naïve.
The potential stumbling block is how the profits are divided up between the partners. However, I believe that the final deal will be attractive to Versarien as the Chinese wont want them to back out.
In addition, Versarien has direct access to new innovations coming out of the Universities of Manchester and Cambridge and if the Chinese want access to these they will want to ensure Versarien are happy with the current arrangement.
With Versarien based in China producing Nanene, the Chinese have then a ready supply of quality product that they can look to apply to a multitude of uses, incorporating Nanene into commercial products and then selling them globally, that is where they will make huge profits.
Neill has said that the factory will be up and running by the middle of the year, that sounds very optimistic to me but even if it was in production by the year end, that would be an amazing achievement.
UK company to build graphene factory in China
By Angus McNeice in London | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2018-01-17 03:45
China and the United Kingdom may soon provide the biggest capacity in the world for graphene, following an agreement to manufacture it in Eastern China.
UK-based advanced materials engineering company Versarien and partners in China have struck a deal to build the graphene factory in Jinan, in East China's Shandong province.
Graphene is a highly conductive, incredibly strong, two-dimensional material made of carbon. The material was only recently discovered, and engineers around the world are looking into a range of commercial uses for it, including superfast smartphone chargers and filters that remove salt from seawater.
"It's a wonder product," said Neill Ricketts, Versarien's chief executive. "Graphene and its sister materials will eventually be used in pretty much everything you touch packaging, transportation equipment, sporting goods, clothing, and textiles."
Ricketts said the electric vehicle sector in China, which is the world's largest by production, will likely prove an important market for graphene and other advanced materials. The manufacture of graphene on Chinese soil is good news for domestic companies looking to place large orders.
Graphene has a very low density storing one ton of the material requires the equivalent of 38,000 conventional oil drums so transport across oceans is a challenge.
The new partnership will also set up a graphene research center, which together with the factory will be called the China-UK Jinan Graphene Industrial Park, or, informally, the Jinan Graphene Valley.
The entire project will cost around 55 million pounds ($75.7 million), which will be funded by three players in China Jinan Qing Na Material Technology, the Jinan Innovation Zone Administrative Committee, and the Shandong Institute of Industrial Technology Fund.
"This is potentially a route to provide the biggest capacity for graphene in the world," Ricketts said. "It's a brand-new science, and China is trying to take the lead, and is willing to invest heavily to create that lead."
China's interest in British research into the material was highlighted by President Xi Jinping's visit to the National Graphene Institute in Manchester during his 2015 state visit to the UK.
The first UK-China graphene conference was held in November in Chongqing, where British scientists demonstrated the latest breakthroughs in the commercialization of graphene.
"Researchers are looking to use graphene to solve issues that have a big social impact things like membranes that enable desalination, sensors for new types of communication, technologies that help combat cancer, diabetes and dementia," Ricketts said. "Collaboration with China is huge because they have the firepower and the market, and the UK has the experience and the knowledge to make it all happen."
The graphene market in China is forecast to be worth $200 million in three years, making it the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region.
As of September, 2,950 Chinese companies have indicated they are exploring the use of graphene, according to government statistics.
Questions and answers. 16th January 2018
One of the many near-term applications for graphene, among many, is tyres. Is VRS working with any major tyre manufacturer currently and would you expect to announce any collaboration agreement relating to tyres within the next year?
Yes subject to NDA with one client and awaiting a collaboration contract to be agreed, at initial stages with another.
Comment from one
I find it difficult to comprehend the Chinese will pay for everything in phase 1 and 2 without VRS hammering out a set of revenue sharing principles, yet he did not refer to any!
It is a JV so VRS will be paid a royalty, profits would be split demanding on the percentage shareholding which is being negotiated.
In fact he did not seem entirely sure over expenditure for the kit. In the interview he said VRS would be supplying it, then when pressed on twitter he thought the Chinese would pay, then later he was certain the Chinese would pay.
It is at an early stage, we could sell the equipment or lease it. VRS will supply it though. Chinese fund is investing, no requirement from VRS.
Lack of any high level financial metrics.
A business plan is being written by our chinese colleagues, this has moved very quickly and they are just catching up.
Is the ink side included in the Chinese deal or not?
No Nanene only
Nanene is part patent part know how. What steps can VRS take to prevent some employee in a new eg. Indian production plant from selling the know how to all comers? I am actually less concerned about the Chinese carrying out dirty tricks than I would be about the Americans.
All employees are covered by IP , not one person has all the answers, the team has worked together for decades together and are well incentivised.
As you suggested, I did the maths, which provoked a sharp intake of breath, raised eyebrows and a broad smile.
The soaring SP over the last few months (and most specially in the last day or two) has been something to behold. If this were now the end point in the Versarien story, most investors would be delighted with the gain they have chalked up. But clearly, that's not how things are; this is only just the beginning.
It's fascinating to think where the next year or two may lead us....
Very big numbers tot. The example and present value at £400/gram. At a US metric ton 907185 gram / tone = £382m/ton. If the 2024 market is 54,000 tons, then the total value of the 2024 graphene market is £19.5 trillion / annum.
Obviously the price of graphene will have to reduce for economical products to be produced. Just for the case of a scenario at £1/gram, the 2024 market is valued at £48.9 billion.
A healthy slice of that would be nice. 1% of the market = £489 million.
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