We may be fortunate and continue developing these small penant formations penholme - nice if they last another 10 months - a slowly rising cycle as we get nearer and nearer to production.
Nice chart - thanks for sharing as usual.
Let us hope that the management of WRES is as good at delivering the project on time and within budget as it is at raising finance. Interestingly the recent experience of Hummingbird shows that at least some AIM company management teams can deliver big projects on time and within budget.
I was interested to see the comment about aid from the regional government. Clearly any help is better than none. Do we know what is on offer here. The EU has a lot of restrictions on state aids to industry. However, I recall that many years ago we got away with helping tin mines in Cornwall, on the basis that at the time nobody else in the EU produced tin on any significant scale. The location might also help in terms of EU regional policy.
Take your point Malbrad - plans and execution of plans are two different things. if we could be sure there would be no delays or cost overruns I think the sp would be triple where it is - that's our opportunity and our risk - assuming the project progresses as planned then there is no reason why the sp should not gradually rise , in the normal cyclical fashion, from now to production.
1.8p has been bandied about and I think starting production without delays and overruns could see that come to fruition, thereafter further sp progress will depend on the actual finances and profits plus the progress on other projects.
My hope here is that the board use profits to expand elsewhere and don't forge ahead in too many directions at once too quickly - have irons in the fire but get one production and income stream up and running and use the profits to see through other projects rather than borrowings or placings. Unfortunately AIM CEOs tend to be debt and placement junkies - I suppose it's to make sure their salaries and expenses are always well covered.
I would suggest that given that the plant that has been ordered is under the control of one supplier, the BoD have reduced some of the risk, and would also expect that they will have penalty clauses on the supplier for delays in delivery and commissioning of the plant, so there may not be as much risk as you perceive.
I would not be surprised if we are not actually producing or in the commissioning stages of the plant whilst still in 2018, as orders on first stages of kit were placed a few months ago, and so design and manufacturing will be well underway.
All we need now is some news on the grant aid form the regional government towards the plant costs, and this share will take a tickle up onto the next stage.
I have just bought a second small shareholding here. The financing RNS is good in that we have got the money without any dilution - quite rare at the moment. I am similarly impressed by the signing up of customers. The danger here is that any delay in getting into production or any capital spend overrun will hit us hard given the high rate of interest that we are paying on the loan. In either circumstance the danger would be a heavily discounted placing to see us through to production. A promising if rather volatile investment that I feel a need to watch more carefully than usual as a non trader.
It's good to see that the 13 million is now in the bank and short term loans have already been paid off. The bankers are committed and the refiners are also committed to take 80% on initial Tungsten production. Plant has been forward ordered with the same company so no need to join up the dots once manufacture is completed as it's all in house. Infrastructure already in place in terms of roads, electricity and water.
Significantly de-risked project now Milton - eminently suitable as a long term investment.
Bounces around a bit too much for my liking, suits the traders, but i am here for the long term growth once they expand production to 4k.Making all the right moves now, but took a while longer than i would have liked.
Trying to get FRR at .45p to .47p but this may not be possible - can see it at .6p (20 to 30% profit) just on anticipation - can't see it getting above .7p unless the results are very good - but if they are good then it could go crazy and hit 1.4p quite easily - as you say sell half on the run up and gamble with the other half may be a good tactic - not putting a lot in there to start with though.
I actually could have played this better if I'd focused on it more.. but it unfortunately it never really wass a prioroty stock for me .. so far, at least ...maybe it becomes one in the future though.. and it has been very good to me so far, in fairness.. it was either you or Geng I picked it up from... so thanks to you both.
(re Frr : most times ahead of drill results in O&G 'explorer' companies such as it there is a spike in anticipation anyway.. given Frr history the big question then would be sell into the spike or hold for the actual results.. depends how big the spike, perhaps .. sell a portion and keep a portion is often a good idea in such stocks.. playing the percentages and all that)
Ditto Michu - holding now - might get a spike after weekend digestion - but aim to build the position more in the latter part of the year - did top slice a few with a view of maybe putting a little of the profit so far in ...wait for it... FRR? Short term drill should make a nice trade there.
rally on news seems to have been weaker and petered out more quickly than I expected.... cliche comes to mind but i'll spare you all that .. If a big rally i'd have sold some towards buying it back in due course at maybe a lower level... oh well... my position here is not big and so I'll likely just keep holding and kinda forget about it for a year or more.. would add some more on any meaningful weakness in that time though, and that is of course a possibility, not least if implementation is not as smooth as planned..
Finally the details.
First thoughts, production early 2019 is the key.
Decisions on whether to focus on paying down the loan or expanding to 4k from 2k need some time for calculations.
Still feeling very positive here, little noise in the BB and 12 months out is worth waiting for.
Current cash should avoid any further need for equity dilution.
Warrant position would be nice to have more details on?
Of course GenG.
I set another slice today before going out @ 56p limited higher again @ 57p.
That's a good sign as this broker does not get best prices.
I am still in this only selling extra i bought on dip .
News to come - the final signing - drawdown of 13 million which confirms the commitment to lend - then presumably agreements with the customers (assuming this is part of the 'conditions') - then drawdown of 22 million in quarter 2 - then updates on delivery - updates on installation - updates on commissioning - updates on production - calculation of massive profits.
Going to be a busy year and a bit.
Basic agreement here - resistance areas around 63 > 82 > 97 (red lines on weekly)
20/50/200 SMAs all aligned and rising
RSI relatively overcooked at 85 with price also opening/closing above the top band on the daily. So some cooling off may be in order. Weekly RSI also above 70 for first time since 2016.
Yup, I have similar. My downtrend from back in 2014 was broken this morning around the 0.53 mark (if it holds for close that is).
Longer term downtrends is around 0.61
RSI is looking a little overdone, although we are in a nice uptrend, so we could have a technical solidification and pull back, but if finance comes through as expected, this really should and will be much higher in time regardless of the chart. Boom time hopefully indeed
Zoomed out - 2013 and 2014 downtrends
It has broken out emphatically now and there doesn't seem to be much in the way of resistance. This is where I normally cash in my 20% gain and live to regret it - have 0.8p in mind in the short term but after that yes 3p, 4.5p or more is possible as long as they deliver. Placing orders was a massive positive - confirmation of the money in the bank should ease any remaining concerns.
Yup, it is indeed. In addition to WRES, Vanadium is my other play with BMN (along with PGMs in JLP) so their predictions all look very temping! I note they don't think gold will do particularly well over the next few years...but I am getting off topic.
WRES's outlook looks superb if the APT prices hold where they are. If the got to 400, it could be quite spectacular.
My estimates suggest a suggest at a price of 300 USD / mtu post-tax profits could support a SP of 3p - 4.5p at a PE of 8 and dilution of 30% (which I expect to be very conservative) for the T2 and T3.5 mines. Take the APT price to 400 USD and this suddenly jumps to 4.5 - 7p. That would be quite something.....
Can APT price reach these levels? Can MM deliver the plant on time and with the robust economics they claim are possible? What dilution will occur to progress the other parts of the business while La Parilla is being built and debts are being paid back?
Plenty to consider and track, but the outlook is very exciting. And the prospect of dividends will be coming down the line at some point - I'm sure MM will be keen to start taking some income from his pretty hefty stake.
It's been a long time coming for WRES. But it does seem like 2018 could be the year where the show finally gets on the road.
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