This Bloomberg article says what I suspect many don't want to acknowledge:
Now that the bigger players have a motive to find ways around the dollar, he says, there's no technical reason why they couldn't succeed. Europe and China have banks, he says. One of these days, the U.S. is going to talk the dollar right out of its international role".
If they do, will it help a British company post Brexit?
Rhetorical question, obviously, as absolutely no one knows the answer to that one as things stand, but Boeing's representative on the BBC this morning clearly doesn't think so, in my opinion, although he wouldn't expand beyond Boeing and Airbus both complying with what he termed WTO rules (I didn't get his logic there, but missed first part of interview).
In fact, when asked to give a view on how UK companies would stand post Brexit he couldn't stop himself laughing before dodging the question.
"The options being considered by the bloc to keep Tehran in the nuclear deal reportedly include new credit lines, increased energy cooperation and implementing EU laws to block European firms from caving in to US sanctions"
velocipede, "companies seem to be shunning Iran for fear of losing US business. "
Its the same with the banks and many others. They pay fines that seem to be dreamed up by the Dept of Justice in multiples of Billions of USD ultimately to retain access to the US market. Otherwise they could just tell them to get stuffed and not pay one thin red cent to a body that ultimately has no actual jurisdiction over them.
They all seem to think its worth it. Not just British banks but other European ones too, and of course any drug or oil company cannot afford to lose access to the US market.
I'd like to know where the recent car screening contract quoted as being worth $4.5m is. The middle east somewhere, but is it also in Iran? The fact its quoted in USD seems to indicate not.
If not overshadowed by the airport contract, this would have been a major piece of news for WSG all by itself and may well explain why the market hasn't discounted the price further amid the Iran uncertainty.
I wish WSG would give more detail about it. An existing middle east customer really isn't enough, is it?
Of course we should all take media sources with a pinch of salt, especially as the basic ethics of journalism (never publish without at least two verified sources) seem to have become absent from many an outlet these days.
I sourced Wiki for the piece on RT because it in turn rigorously references every assertion made ... at least in this piece saving me the effort. Obviously other parts of Wiki are worse than useless as a source of info.
Why target RT? you reasonably ask. Simply because this particular story is massively political - obviously - with Russia, Syria, Iran (and others) on one side and the USA, Saudi Arabia, Israel etc on the other, with poor old WSG getting potentially squeezed in the middle of it all.
Specifically, therefore, Russia's active involvement in this area means that RT is a source that should be treated with an even higher degree of the usual scepticism when it comes to this particular news item (Iranian deal/ US sanctions etc).
As for concentration of media ownership, anyone who had followed my posts over the last 30 years would know that it has always been my assertion that globally we will end up with perhaps six to a dozen media outlets, including news, entertainment, research sources, communications etc etc which will carve up the global market between them. Some of these will probably be state owned.
Indeed, much of my long term investment strategy is based on this belief. People used to laugh at my thesis, but it doesn't look so off-the-wall these days, does it?
Eadwig, I take all news sources with a healthy pinch of salt and generally try to cross reference where possible. RT has actually proven quite useful in this regard. But why pick on RT? Do you seriously think they are the only outlet to spin a narrative for some ulterior motive?
If you're going to throw wikipedia at me (lol) then I'll return the favour; see the sub heading "Risks for media integrity" on this page:
Bunny007, "Hopefully we don't need to waste any more of this forum's space ... with draconian policing of each other's sources of information."
You don't need to engage with me, fair enough, but unfortunately it is an error these days not to question people's sources of information if these boards are going to remain useful to investors.
I'll leave you with the following from Wikipedia, which I urge you and others to consider carefully and I also note that so far as I know you only ever quoted them once. Good luck with your investments.
"RT is a brand of "TV-Novosti", an "autonomous non-profit organization", founded by the Russian news agency, RIA Novosti, on 6 April 2005. During the economic crisis in December 2008, the Russian government, headed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, included ANO "TV-Novosti" on its list of core organizations of strategic importance of Russia.
RT has been frequently described as a propaganda outlet for the Russian government and its foreign policy. RT has also been accused of spreading disinformation by news reporters, including some former RT reporters. The United Kingdom media regulator, Ofcom, has repeatedly found RT to have breached rules on impartiality and of broadcasting "materially misleading" content. On 13 November 2017, RT America officially registered as a "foreign agent" with the United States Department of Justice under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. "
Eadwig. It is interesting how my optimism translates as desperation to you. All the political and economic developments so far have been very encouraging since Trump did the dirty; I think I have a reasonably logical case for being optimistic about WSG prospects at this stage. 25th May is close, we'll know soon enough I guess.
(Hopefully we don't need to waste any more of this forum's space with your futile speculations about me, or with draconian policing of each other's sources of information. I will henceforth discontinue this particular line of discussion with you).
Bunny007, "Eadwig, you seem to have made several assumptions about my position"
Yes I have, based on you making no posts for a while and then a flurry of posts in the last few days on WSG, with the maximum number of Strong Buys. My main assumption is that you're a bit desperate.
I hope you're not, but that's what the activity looks like and what it suggests to probably most people looking on.
Or, maybe you're just upset that stupid politicians in other countries can step in and (seemingly, potentially) ruin an investment story for many of us and that has actuated you into unusual amounts of posting action.
Or maybe you absolutely think the market has got this pricing wrong and that you have read the situation correctly and are buying WSG shares on every price drop.
If so, I apologise. It is your risk to take after all.
I don't apologise for reacting to any supposed news link from Russia Today (RT News). This propaganda organ has no place as a source for these discussion boards. I hope you (and several others) keep that in mind next time you see a news story from them. They're not exactly subtle or hard to see through and never put out a balanced story that I have ever seen.
Eadwig, 'Fair and Balanced' ... just like Fox News
SOFIA, May 17 (Reuters) - The European Commission will launch on Friday the process of activating a law that bans European companies from complying with U.S. sanctions against Iran and does not recognise any court rulings that enforce American penalties.
£As the European Commission we have the duty to protect European companies. We now need to act and this is why we are launching the process of to activate the £blocking statute£ from 1996. We will do that tomorrow morning at 1030,£ European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said.
£We also decided to allow the European Investment Bank to facilitate European companies£ investment in Iran. The Commission itself will maintain its cooperation will Iran,£ Juncker told a news conference after a meeting of EU leaders.
As said.... never going to be a long term blockage. Coast is clear and tiny window to get in before the surge. Bring it on. Good luck all the faithful.
Firstly, for the record I have now dumped all my holding, taking just about 30% on my last couple of tranches, having often doubled my money in the past with WSG.
Now, your recent posts. Although a few years back Iran did move towards paying for oil in Euro and there was much talk of the petro-dollar having finally had its day ... we all know what then happened to the Euro which only just about survived as a currency.
This link is from the KGB-run RT news Russian propaganda organ which pumps out fake news minute by minute. I wish people wouldn't post stories from this source. It is about as trustworthy as Fox News and delights in exagerating any story or rumour that may cause discord in the EU or between Western countries.
The EU moving to protect European companies as reported by Reuters in one of your other posts is exactly what the EU is all about and, basically, is the only economic power that ever holds the USA and some of its more powerful companies in check (see fines levelled against E.g. Apple, Google etc and E.g. actions taken in past to stop steel dumping etc by the USA).
Unfortunately, we've voted to do away with this protection and so I can't see how WSG are going to benefit over a 15 year contract. As we know various federal agencies will take any British company to court on a whim and the Westminster government will do no more than protest, which will be duly ignored. E.g. BP, GSK, Barclays, LLoyds, HSBC ... the list is pretty much endless these days.
The question is, does WSG have any interests in America that it doesn't mind losing? Nothing major I am aware of so the directors can ignore US sanctions so long as they avoid stepping foot on US territory and the UK government finally throws that one-sided extradition treaty in the bin. Something that should have been done years ago.
I Don't want to sound too much of a wet blanket, it could all work out very well, but I think that even if there is an RNS saying that the contract is going ahead the potential rise in price (I was expecting well over @30p) no longer has the potential spring behind it that it once had. There are too many potential pitfalls down the road and it will all take a long time to play out.
One for high-risk speculation? Yes, certainly. A Strong Buy posted daily? Not in my book.
I understand you're disappointed, we all are, but don't lose perspective, there are always other opportunities in the markets ...
Not in anyones interests not to have a deal with Iran, not least safe air travel. Plenty of action behind the scenes to dilute the effect of US proposed sanctions or work round them.
The deal is signed. Bring on the news soon with results in 6 trading days time. We were at 30p on speculation of a deal. We have a deal so what price when we start and thats without all the add on deals plus other MOUs.
No wonder some hefty buying been going on at this price. Good luck all
Could be an "interesting" business cargo screening in Iran.Quite simple really....You ignore bombs,guns & gas going out to support international terrorist activities and impound revealing underwear coming in.
Old Wise Owl, "Trump makes his decision so the company now are pausing to just understand that they continue to comply with any US sanctions. Not a big deal."
As I understand it, part of the ending of sanctions was a review of the deal every 3 months. I must admit that I'm unsure of the terms of the sanctions that the US will return to applying, but I do know that it will stop the new aircraft fleet orders being completed. Airbus is reliant on many parts from America to complete those orders.
More directly, I also wonder about the high technology WSG are planning to use. Typically, in the past, sanctions would specifically apply in that area.
Iran has a huge and wild border with Afghanistan and consequently a huge problem with heroin passing through the country. If the new car screening deal is also with Iran that may come under scrutiny also.
If common sense prevails one would hope that this contract would still go ahead. Security in Iran is good for everyone everywhere after all. With the current president in the Whitehouse and his political promises to kill the Iran deal as well as threats against any company 'breaking' sanctions I'm not at all sure common sense will prevail.
An extremely tricky situation, but then no one has ever bought WSG believing it to be anything other than high risk in the last year or two.
Nice to Michu, "I've felt its better I halve my position again here this afternoon"
I have to say the more I think about this the less typical the situation seems (and the more justified the reaction) and I may reduce myself next week.
The international deal and compliance by Iran are reviewed every 3 months but I can't see Trump backing down anyway for home political reasons. Rumours and counter-rumours may well make the share very volatile and tradable again, but its an awfully risky state of affairs as you pointed out.
One thing that isn't clear to me is the recently announced 'car screening' contract worth $4.5m with an existing client in the middle east. Is this part of the Iran deal or some other client?
Is it also at risk or not in other words. I assume most of that contract value will be for equipment that WSG will provide with perhaps a small mark-up, even so it is a significantly large contract in itself which would have moved the share price on its own had it not been over-shadowed by the airport announcement.
I don't want to pull out as a shareholder completely. It is impressive that a British firm won such a contract in Iran and its hard to see how USA can complain about security of flights, so there must be more opportunity to be had in that country. Sierra Leone is coming back, the ferry business may turn into something worthwhile, in which case it should be sold off, in my opinion.
The real worry is the statement "the project will be placed on hold".
They needed the contract up and running - how long before the lights go out?
Anybody interested in a 1 for 3 rights issue at say 5p? Probably not!
Lovely stories Eadwig and good colour too, thanks.
Alas, upon reflection today and watching the s/p bounce back somewhat from this mornings 10p ish open, I've felt its better I halve my position again here this afternoon.. so my position here is small now and my interest will, for a while at least, be equivalently small.
This could play out well still but it's clearly more complication and trickiness on top of the endless similar that forever seems to go with WSG. Indeed I'm somewhat burned out by my journey here so far and am thankful to have made a reasonable profit here overall. And given this key contract is in Iran there are plenty of bets I like more than this now.
Good luck to all holders here. Whatever else, it's categorically never boring with WSG!
....Meanwhile the management can get down to doing what they are good at raising cash from the foolish & gullible and spending it on themselves & other madcap schemes.
I thought it would be difficult to top the last "African Queen" ferry venture for absurd farce;but Sir Tony & his chums have excelled again!Brilliant.
Damps, "the UK has 40 commercial airports, so 60 in Iran seems to be quite a stretch"
It is often overlooked that Iran is many times bigger than the UK and has a larger population, around 80 million.
With the fuel subsidy in 2000 I paid $15 U.S. to fly from Kerman to Tehran. Internal flights are well within reach of the locals - or were back then, and it may well still be the case. Considering our road trip outside Kerman (toward Bam and Afghanistan) was only allowed with an armed escort of soldiers, choosing a flight between cities may well be the preferred option for many an internal traveller.
Sadly I should add that the beautiful oasis city of Bam was wholly destroyed by an earthquake not long after my visit.
Funnily enough I have just posted on Barcplus that 10p would be an interesting price level.
Incidentally, apparently the UK has 40 commercial airports, so 60 in Iran seems to be quite a stretch. The relevance also seems questionable at this point. Unless you, of course, you are desperate to keep the dream alive. Which seems to be an esssential ingredient for AIM.
I'm of similar mind-set to you with regard to this stumbling block. I'd be inclined to buy more under @10p but I only sold around one third of my holding when over @23p and have a holding average of about @10p. I'm very unsure now if the contract, despite being signed, will continue to excite the markets in the same way.
Iran is an unbelievably difficult place to do business and usually favours French companies over others if t has to go 'Western'. It shouldn't be forgotten that the whole of Iran Air's plan to add over 100 modern jets has been thrown into doubt also.
This move on the Iran deal was a flagship policy for Trump who is prepared to take action against anyone circumventing his sanctions and this will be a battle of will in the run up to the next presidential election in November 2020. I can't see anything being settled before then.
I was in Iran in 2000 and Tehran had the most chaotic airport I have ever visited (I'm assured some in Africa are worse). Several levels of security have to be passed through BEFORE you reach airport security. Police, Army and Religious Police all compete with each other to show their powers. I have no idea if this remains the same situation.
Air travel within Iran is very popular as fuel is heavily subsidized, Iran is huge and the roads are some of the most dangerous in the world.
60 airports though? That is misleading I think. Tehran is a very, very busy international airport and there may be one or two other airports have a few international flights and perhaps half a dozen fairly busy regional airports. I'm unsure about the Gulf coast and the oil industry and how that adds to the network.
''The MMs have picked some pockets this afternoon''
Perhaps they'll be picking some more first thing tomorrow morning old wise owl.. hopefully not but my guess is this will open decently lower than todays close..how low it goes and what sort of bounce from where is the question for traders.. long termers less so,granted.. and in fairness the more I read the RNS the less worried I am...I'm still reasonably worried though..
So now we know that the contract is with Iran - why do we know? Because the contract has finally been signed off!
So after all this time and effort on both sides a contract is in place with circa 24 million revenue once started. Transformational for the company at current market cap.
They have also announced that the country has another 60 yes 60 airports hence during the negotiations the extension of the scope of the project. Massive if taking all those on in due course.
So a short term political hitch sends this down 25%. Makes me smile. With all the trade deals with various countries involved with Iran - really, is Mr Trumps comments going to be allowed to derail all these companies etc.
This may even be sorted by the time of the results on 25th May. Total AIM over reaction with only 2 million shares traded. The MMs have picked some pockets this afternoon.
And this deal not the only one on the go so happy to be accumulating. Wealth created from the impatient and irrational to the rational and with patience.
Iran of all places to have the contract and Trump has thrown a big spanner in works here.. But the contract is not dead and has been put into freeze.. and maybe a new deal gets signed in next 6 months or maybe WSG gets to go ahead with it anyway as it doesn't come under actual sanctions enforced by US ...or UK Co's not part of sanctions.. etc.
But even including the big fall at end of business today I fear for this s/p again tomorrow though..
Very tricky situation now and I feel sorry for all longs here including myself .. fortunately I got bored waiting and cut my position in half thru 2018 so far... but obviously still a hit on what's left.. how low will it go from before it stabilises is the huge question.. sit and wait and hope or sell out ?
waiting for sub 15p again. You lot will say it won't happen again but it did last time and I am sure it will again before soaring to my exit point of 25p again....
Or I am wrong but sitting on a tidy profit.
good luck all.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.