Today 17:45 Price: 1.65
pedro57 73 posts
RE: Strong catalyst timeline
We are looking at a very strong catalyst timeline here: 1) Intrepid Mine EGM approval of Kitumba sale (this sale is very likely to go ahead as Intrepid Mines does not have the ability to develop project and they will pay special dividend from the disposal). 2) 121 Mining conference (we should have new presentation and more detail on Kitumba). 3) Interim results in Feb-Mar showing possible profit and better than expected cash situation. 4) End of March (possible restructuring of Orion loans reflecting Tschudi performance and potential small cash payment). 5) Quarterly production update (forward hedging of currency and completion of leach pads will mean decent C1; I also suspect Tschudi expectations are being lowballed). 6) Logiman exit (in next week large Logiman seller will be done stopping the drag on share price). My expectation is that by the summer we will be at 4p level, which was key resistance level a few years ago. Next year 10p or even earlier if most important catalyst converts, quarterly production update in July with confirmation that small change in procedure and full leach pad performance C1 cost for Tschudi is somewhere between $4,000-4,500. Another key catalyst is South African budget in Feb where dire state finances cause drop in ZAR (this is what caused early 4Q17 Rand collapse).
#WTI Current price just over £15m. Think it highlights again just how far this could go. The potential has also been highlighted for bringing back Centrals Ops too for $10m (10,000tonnes/annum with a 10 year LOM at $2/Ib). Copper going higher would result in many multiples up
This morning Cu was $7,008 on the LME and stocks reducing. We have seen some good movement over the last week and all we need now is a steady stream of good news over 2018. Crucial will be the payment of the loans on the 31st Dec. I must admit I am struggling to see how Weatherly can come up with $20M+ but if they do it will almost certainly mean that C1 is under control. I suspect they will pay some but not all as even a C1 of $4000 with the hedges wouldn't generate enough cash. My wishes for 2018 are loans paid on time, C1 around 4K and CO opening. Then we will be talking! Happy Xmas and the very best luck for all in 2018.
Great, the LSE chat board is more active than here so its useful to have a look over there also. The outlook for copper is looking really strong. I have been invested "stuck" in WTI for several years now. My average is now just under 8p, so although we have a long way to go I'm fairly confident we'll reach that point and more. Previously around 2009 the SP went from below 2p to 14p in about 2 weeks.
Hi everyone. Here are some facts on the Kitumba project from Intrepid. It is an underground mine with a low estimated C1 of $3500 ton based on Intrepid's work. BUT we all know about BFS's so maybe assume $4000. That said it is a rich deposit at over 2% so maybe ok. Their estimation is a build cost of US$433M and LOM of 13 years based on 37K TPA. I would like to think that Weatherly could make some saving here based on their experience with SXEW and the safe mining project at CO. So potentially this gives Weatherly a total CU production of 60-80K PA for the next 10 years plus. Therefore once the Orion debt is sorted we could see a very very profitable company $150-200M PA. And share price 15-25p or a strong takeover target. Not to mention the Zambian exploration licence. So those nice folks at Orion obviously see the commercial end game of owning 25%! Sit tight my friends and you just may see the water turn into wine! A £1K stake now could be worth 20x that in 2-3 years. BTW the real strong point about this is the confidence that Orion has in the team!
This is very welcome news. It clearly shows that Orion are in it for the longer term and that they have confidence in the current management that the business will thrive. Add this to getting the open pit under control and new output from central operations and we have a sustainable business. Current cu price is still based on short term thinking. We only need one interruption in supply in what are very unstable parts of the world both politically and geographically and I think $7K plus is realisable. All we need now is for the good news to come steady and often and we will fly. I see no reason why we shouldn't see 2p + with a better operational report. Many thanks to Craig and the team for making my Christmas and hopes for 2018 a little better than last year!
Fellow WTIers. Yesterday the cash price of copper hit $7008 ton and $7115 for futures. The Weatherly quarterly update and 16-17 accounts are a little late by usual standards which probably means it is either a blessing or bad news. Using their quoted figures of C1 $5288 on 14759 tons and the hedges that cover most of the production I estimate a GP of around -$3.1M for the year on revenue of $74.9M. That probably means an overall loss of £15-16M. Given that the new hedges are between 6000 and 6500 Craig needs to hit a C1 of below $4K this quarter if they stand any chance of paying back Orion schedule B at the end of the month. Unless there are some hidden funds I can't see any way they could pay back C&D at the same time so I expect we will see some sort of deal with Orion. Weatherly needs to make $2500-$3000 per ton just to meet the B loans and admin costs. So it all rests on getting those C1 costs below $4K as has been frequently spoken about. Hopefully we will know more next week and I wish everyone good luck.
Hi yeah I did some research today, It appears to me that the $10M revolving facility will be used in part to sort Tschudi. I imagine that will take care of $2M. Once done the water problem and leaching issue will be resolved and we should be reaching 20k tonnes/annum That is circa 1700 tonnes per month. We have a 1000 tonnes on a hedged contract at approx $6000 and also Orion have a right to buy 700 tonnes again at a similar price. Ci costs Imo is another issue and personally I will be conservative here and assume $4700. Now if all that holds then that is where we are until the Spring ie a profit of circa $2.2M. or approx $6.6M Now if Ci costs are brought down by $100 then that will increase profitability by $170K. So really if WTI is going to be able to repay Orion at a pace of $10M/quarter then Ci1costs need to be $4000 Of course there are our mothballed mines and has that VAT bill ever been paid by the government? Now if POC rises to $7000 by the spring and Ci are maintained at $45 and we have no hedging to worry about or special deal for Orion then we are really talking!! $7000-4500 X 1700 = $4.25M/month Orion sorted and profits of $6M Lets call that £5M P/E 10 then we have a 6 bagger, But of course we have our mothballed mines. I bet Orion would/are interested in financing that with their chunky shareholding!!!!!
Hi all. Now that Cu prices are exceeding $6500 what future for Weatherly? Assuming that the life of mine C1 of around $4K can be hit and mining improves to 20K PA we would see a future GP of 2-3K per ton or around $50M GP PA. There is around $110M of debt to clear and I guess about 5 years life left in the open pit once the debt is cleared. So potentially $200-250M cash NOT including Central Operations. Anyone like to have a stab at what they think the SP will be 1. if the debt repayments, production and CU stabilise, 2. Once the debt has been paid off? OR will there be a buy out with copper being scarce for the conceivable future?
The time period I was speaking about was in 2011, if you look at the chart, you,ll see it goes from just over 2p to 14p in a very short time. It's when the mine came out of care and maintenance and they sold the smelter to Dundee
After 5 years in the wilderness, there seems to be some life in this old dog yet! Only 1,200 % to go and I'll be back at my average of 12p! but I do seriously remember when this went from around 2p to 14 p in about 2 weeks!
Being asleep with this bottom draw share...my bad....has anyone more up to date noticed any difference (additions/changes etc) with the August 2017 presentation.?
I notice that with the two mines in Namibia under care & maintenance that a Capex of 10m is required for a C1 2$/lb basis....If and only if they can control the C1 costs on their central ops and Cu price is reasonably at current levels and above will they then consider re-opening the mines in Namibia (basically getting central ops under good control).
Current price spot
2.941 +0.003 +0.10%
09:04:03 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
All the best
By the time it gets somewhere near my break even after costs it will have to be 5.5p
Maybe I should be looking at electric wheelchairs rather than E cars!!....but anything that helps it go in the right direction is great.
Cu spot just eased off a touch...lets hope it finds a moderate level (circu 2.88 - 2.92) and keeps the gains...then see if this continues above 3
All the best
I agree the movement in cu is impacting this. However I think there is something else at play. Given that a good deal of the next years production is hedged at 6k the current price isn't the only factor. Looking at the trades of the last few days someone is buying big. So fellow punters hold on there and you might just see some value returned. If Craig can get the c1 cost to near 4K and open central ops again we could see real movement.
Well current price is on the move up
2.952 +0.069 +2.39%
14:15:23 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
Been here for years...just checking in on a bottom draw share...hope it continues...unfortunately not able to av down...
Electric cars are for the future but, with the price chart for copper in a pronounced uptrend from around $4,500 to a two-year high of $6,400, chart following investors will be jumping in to add to Chinese demand, the largest influence by far.
If the price reaches £7,000, we may start getting less pessimistic statements from the company and, if the price recovers to the 2013 level north of $8,000, there will be light at the end of the tunnel
WTI is highly geared to the copper price. If copper braks $3, this could easily get into single figures. Look at the copper price chart back to 2013 and you can see the potential, especially with everyone wanting to make electric cars. Multibagger in the making.
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