Africa is back at work from Monday as most of it closes down over Xmas so any news due should be coming then a perfect T20 trade I reckon this should motor well past 25p!
Chinese building the new port, hmm wonder if they will buy ZIOC stake or Glencore's???
With iron ore on the rise, surely it makes sense to take advantage of the situation and get into production as early as possible. Hoping for good news once all the research has been completed. The current movements in the share price suggest manipulation rather than any sound basis for such large girations. I prefer to sit tight in the hope that arrangements will be made to take advantage of the current strength in the value of iron ore.
With the value of iron ore rising at present now seems the right time to accelerate the development of the companies resources. We were promised a progress report before the year end and time is running out!
Yeah well I try not underestimate the ability of the herd to see rainbows in mud. It's a good place to try a trade imv but it doesn't mean it'll work. I still think it goes much lower. Obtaining the environmental licence was a great bit of news but the mania of the herd has destabilised the sp and they will have to be dealt with before progress can be made. All imv of course.
Has a chance to bounce here 10/11p but given the weakness in the face of the much ramped narrative I think 6/7p looks more likely. Down there would close the final gap, hit the 200DMA and complete a nice pattern.
So the short term trading positions being taken in the last few weeks in anticipation of a Glencore news conference decision on ZIOP, didn't work out.
Perhaps now the silly ramping over on the other bb will abate and patience will remain a strong virtue. It looks like the sp today has weathered the disappointment quite well. No real stop loss sell off to speak of.
I'm sure they are. Well good luck to them. But it looks like a big bait ball to me. I've nothing against Zanaga, on the contrary I think it has great potential and I'm a big fan Michael Haworth, who I've a large investment in elsewhere. And I look forward to having a chance to re-invest here. Let's see what happens.
As far as I can see the only update to be expected is this -
'As reported in the Company's annual results published on 28 June 2017, the Project team commenced the process of actively investigating the potential for the early development of a small-scale, low capex, low opex project utilising road and potentially rail transportation solutions as well as existing port infrastructure. The Company intends to be in a position to provide more detail on the outcomes of this study work by the end of this year.'
Whilst there was no permit for mining and shipping of the ore, ZIOC stock value was volatile, and relatively low.
The IPO price was about £1.50 a share, and no more shares have been issued - so no dilution. Since then, the ore resources have been proven to be high quality in terms of FE, doubled in volume and optimal mining plans and transfer routes have been defined. The Chinese have been developing the port and need the ore for their steel plants.
The country want to see financial returns from all this work; iron ore prices have improved and Glencore are on record that that want to grow their iron ore production, ideally through existing partnerships rather than trying to find new sources.
The ZIOC resource is very valuable and ZIOC hold the licence permits - albeit with little cash to fund their share. Nevertheless, this has been known for many years, by Glencore in particular, so their $300m to fund the feasibility study work by Zanaga bought them 50% + 1 share of the project and, I am sure, there must have been some understanding that ZIOC would reduce its share further in the main project for cash and/or "free carry" or why would they have done all the good work required to prove up the resources and get the necessary production permits if they thought Glencore would then just take their share for next to nothing.
ZIOC do need to be bought out, or partially bought out with some "free carry" if this 20+ year project is to be launched.
Everything is now aligned for a deal; when and what terms are still interesting questions. The hope for ZIOC is a price nearer £3 than £1 a share with a 10% free carry... but negotiations could take a while to conclude. News could come any time now, certainly ahead of Christmas was the view of ZIOC in recent RNS.
I agree the ramping (on Twitter in particular) is a bit over the top, mainly in support of day trading, but this is only trading a relatively small volume of the stock repeatedly. This doesn't change the fundamental value of ZIOC at present, which must surely be crystalized soon. Those how funded the IPO have been waiting a very long time...
The price won't drop back much below 15p now the main permits are in place... wish-full thinking if anyone hopes to buy any ZIOC shares at 6p.
I had a good run on this, in the end, but it took a long time to come. I still think it's got plenty to offer but atm it's being incessantly ramped all over the place. The 'buyout/takeover RNS' isn't a mythical creature, although it may be here, it's just very rare. Without it I think this is more likely to drop back to 6p. Good luck to all players.
I looked at all the timescales on the zanaga PDF, they have all been met let's hope Glen put the final piece of the jigsaw in and don't drag it on without making a firm commitment to digging the stuff up with or without the Chinese who have to be part of this imho.
Been invested in ZIOC for over 6 years now and "my gut feel" is this could be the week that everything changes for ZIOC, whose staff have worked so tirelessly and with great expertise for so many years.
The recent permit announcement was the final piece in the jigsaw, and Glencore (50% + one share of the project) and/or the Chinese both have great justification for closing a deal with the government and the licence/permit holder, Zanaga (50% less one share), to launch the project which will deliver ore from one of five largest and the highest FE quality open-pit sources to the Chinese market, which has long term, strategic needs. This would use the sea ports and transport plsnned to be built for the benefit of all those involved in this enormous project.
A cash dividend for ZIOC shareholders would be very welcome, with or without any "free carry" rights left for the future.
I certainly won't be selling my ZIOC shares until the expected end-game, planned years ago by ZIOC management in conjunction with their partner, Glencore, is concluded.
"The Congolese government will be entitled to not less than a 10% interest in the project subject to direct negotiations with the company..."
Exactly, and this imo is the sticking point atm .... maybe they want more than 10% and/or free carry.
Don't forget 50% of what the government get is from ZIOC share, the other from Glencore. Do the government suddenly wanted more of the pie in return for the Permit having been issued !!!!
Lots of paperwork and negotiations required if that is the case .... hence the delay. The ownership of ZIOP would need to be nailed down by any prospective buyer of ZIOC's share BEFORE any deal. I think the Congolese government upset the apple cart at the last moment.
The SALE of our share will be incorporate in the deal that the Congolese government get imo. Can not do one without the other. I would think that this is where any leak would come from and hence the larger buying volume BEFORE the latest RNS on 1/11 & 8/11.
The upshot imo is a deal is on, just a case of percentages and price, hence radio silence.
Clearly Glencore could choose to wait, but why spend so much money (c. $300m) proving up the resources and determining the lowest CAPEX route to market whilst chasing the permits needed if they didn't intend to actually start production as the price of iron improves?
If they don't proceed on a reasonably timely basis, there must be a risk that Glencore (51%) and ZIOC (49%) might lose their very valuable licence rights.
As I understand it, Glencore also want to buy out their partners to wholly own resource rights in preference to funding new resource searches and production plans, etc. and ZIOC has globally the 5th best iron ore resource with the greatest quality and % iron. ZIOC must surely be at the top of their list... it's just a case of when Glencore want to move on this and ZIOC are ready to negotiate.
Interesting thoughts here, can Glencore do nothing for years here, or will they plan a buyout of the company, nothing's for certain but very interesting all the same, am watching very closely how this pans out.
Whilst some take what profits they can, or try to minimise their losses by selling now, I've personally held ZIOC shares for over six years with quite a bit of averaging down on weakness when the price of iron ore was low.
Now is not the time to be out of ZIOC given they have the main permits now and are so close to nailing down the last few bits of their production plans with Glencore. As others have stated before, the NPV of this project is worth over £3 a share (Edison report, for their 49% share) to ZIOC and even a £1.50 bid (close to the original IPO price) from Glencore to fully or partially buy out ZIOC to guarantee most the production benefits for themselves for the next twenty or so years would make a substantial difference for most ZIOC shareholders.
The odds are high that such terms will be agreed before Christmas, or in January, and announcements may be preceded with a suspension pending this.
Do your own thing... trade again and again for a profit, take your risks or just be patient... not that it seems anybody can be bothered to enter any such discussions on the ZIOC discussion board here.
Still think there was a big "pump and dump" rally when news of the permit was rumoured/released, and we are in the dump stage for some.
The high volumes seen were the same people buying and selling lots of ZIOC shares repeatedly... and the stragglers are still dropping out with small profits I suspect before the next big put up with any good news.
Nevertheless, the potential value of ZIOC is still in excess of £1 a share, possibly up to £3+ in accordance with the NPV of the project based on open-pit mining only half the strike length of the very high quality ore. As we get closer to initiating the plan, with Glencore, third party or project finance (or a combination thereof) the share price of ZIOC will certainly rise to new heights again... and don't forget the no. of shares issued remains the same as at the IPO, then worth £1.52 a share.
Below 20p, ZIOC remains a STRONG BUY irrespective of whether some are taking short term profits at present.
Demand for ZIOC shares is greater but there is a significant gap between the amount wanted and the money some want to offer... nevertheless, c.21p to 25p is still cheap for shares which are worth at least £1 with finalised production plans and project finance or a Glencore buy-out. NPV was reported by Edison at over £3 a share (see earlier discussions).
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