(CEY) Centamin

As the Egyption Govt bears 50% of the delay and refining costs I'm sure they will exempt CEY. Otherwise it desn't make sense for this Forex strapped country....

Thanks for posting Sikosiko,

I have a feeling that in this instance the delay will work to our advantage what with the POG hovering around the $1400 per ounce mark and us in no particular rush to sell being sat with $188 Million in cash and liquid reserves on the balance sheet.

Imvho and please dyor

You actually missed the main one which was the last one which unanimously approves the share buyback scheme.

So presumably we now should get a decision on whether 55 Million are bought back and cancelled and / or we get a dividend or special dividend.

Imvho and please dyor

Ordinary Resolution 3.1
Retirement and Re-Election of Mr Josef El-Raghy


570,975,160 = For

98.77%


955,059 = Against

0.17%


6,132,215 = Witheld

1.06%

Joshef a good choice me thinks & fully supported...Phil...

It appears that Egypt is not alone and some wider issues are coming to the fore.

It is one thing for Apple, Google, Amazon & Co to avoid rich country taxes but depriving the poorest seems like very low business ethics

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22638153

Wed 22/5/2013

http://www.alboslanews.com/NewsDetails.aspx?NewsID=22115

Officials at CEY are awaiting a decision from the minister of industry and foreign trade to exempt them from the decision to transfer the proceeds of their exports through local banks, or a letter allowing them to export gold shipment weighing 228 kg sits at Cairo airport about 3 weeks ago.

Mr AlKady -Alsukary CEO & EMRA's representative- said: "We were surprised by the customs freezing the shipment demanding a document proving a deposit at one of the banks for the value the shipment, or a letter from the Minister of Industry allows the export of gold," and accordingly the mine management sent a letter to the Minister of Industry and Foreign Trade to be exempt of this decision.

The Minister of Industry issued last April a resolution 235 of 2013 stating that exporters of a range of specified goods, have to pay the full value denominated in foreign currencies convertible through a bank operating in Egypt, and accredited to the central bank, either open a letter of credit for the full value cash transfer or bank transfer before shipping, Or one of the methods of payment guaranteed by the bank, and the decision committed the exporter to provide a bank certificate stating payment of the value of exports for customs, prior to shipment, and the Ministry of Industry explained that the exporter is not obliged to repay the value of exportsin "Cash", but through known bank tools.

"The minister's decision does not cancel Law 222 of 1994, which the mine works under," according to Mr Alkady, pointing out that the law was approved by the Presidency, Parliament when released, as well as that the shipment contains gold ore which is processed abroad, and the company is in desperate need to export gold to get it purified and sell it according to international prices and the sale value is transferred to a bank follows the Central Bank of Egypt and then the sales revenue is used to finance the production processes.

A sum of money is paid daily for cargo insurance and protection, the Egyptian government bears 50% of its value, which represents an additional financial burden on the state, according to Mr. Alkady.

'Yes, its rather a good and clear illustration of how fundamentals can effect and drive markets...'

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Fundamentals never 'drive' markets...........price movements are intrinsic.......not extrinsic.

Comments about China are a completely 'hindsight' way of trying to explain the movements after the event. The media jump at anything that seems to 'fit'........even though it often doesn't.
Colour maps are also 'hindsight' tools.......no driving whatsoever.

This proposed policy scares me. Why would a Govt want the proceeds deposited before an item is sold abroad? How safe (solvency, liquidity and free from Govt interference) are Egyptian banks? How many exporters can afford and would be willing to deposit the proceeds within Egypt before a product is sold?

This seems aimed squarely at companies like Centamin (which exports and keeps sale proceeds in an overseas bank).

Anybody know of any other country that has a similar law?

Thanks Siko - all here apart from one or two oddballs always value your input. I hope this new policy is not a sign of a hard line and misguided approach from the new minister!

Yes, I'm sure this will get sorted one way or another. It's nothing specific against CEY, it's a new rule applies to many companies.

Thanks Siko, i'd been reading the LSE posts and was waiting for this to appear here.

Nothing major i suspect, just more red tape for foreign investment in Egypt?

Yes, its rather a good and clear illustration of how fundamentals can effect and drive markets...
And note particularly the market comments about China`s dramatic slump in output..
That fundamental factor is major in driving down many mining companies in past months, as a quick glance at `colour maps` will show..

Hi all,

I was not going to post this news because I got the stick when I posted something similar last time, but some one already posted it on LSE today so I think it's time to post it.


http://www.almalnews.com/Pages/StoryDetails.aspx?ID=68530#.UZ4ltqLVDj4

http://elbadil.com/taxonomy/term/42/2013/05/04/143272

http://www.almalnews.com/Pages/StoryDetails.aspx?ID=66804#.UZ4oLqLVDj4

Basically, the minister of industry and foreign trade decided that if any company wants to export certain items (including gold), they have to deposit the full value of the shipment in advance in foreign currency in an Egyptian bank.

So CEY has to deposit the value of the shipment in advance in an Egyptian bank. CEY objected and applied for an exemption according to the agreement. They are still waiting for a meeting with the minister.

CEY last shipment was 4th April, that new decision started from 16th April.


As CEY exports twice a month, the backlog is 3 shipments now (mid Apr, beginning May, mid May). One shipments already at the airport (around 250Kg, the rest in the mine)

DYOR

Siko

WebL - your use of 'fundamentals' is rather selective. Goldbugs have been arguing QE was going to propel it above $2000+, but that didnt happen, It was then going to support it, but that didnt happen either, and QE is now ready to be phase out.

Golds trend remains on a downwards path, and each successive attempt to regain past bounce peaks, $1470 and $1410, has failed. Sooner or later a retest of the $1322 low will probably follow, and if that doesnt hold, which seem more likely than not, there are only conspiracies left to rely on.

Going back to markets, I wouldnt be surprised to see the fall continue into next week, followed by an attempt to regain recent highs. It will probably turn out to be nothing more than a classic 'bull trap' to lure buyers in, but I dont think markets can sustain these levels, especially with QE tapering off. AR

I assumed that those fine folk at GS would have proof read Big Bens speech well in advance

So, it was just a coincidence...??
Ben`s speech might have been `anticipated` by some markets..certainly not in the UK though, which closed just off its highs at 4.30, just as Ben was delivering his speech, I believe.
I did this myself, and took profits on some stocks yesterday...
Yes, markets have rocketed this year, driven by the QE and stimulus measures...and very predominantly by the lack of an alternative `base` to place this floating cash, which was slushing around..
Yes, China slowdown hit markets across the globe yesterday, taking over 7% off Tokyo..

pj

Thanks for the reply. I have no time/skill to trade, just sitting here watching and wondering.

The AGM is about to start, i don't think the audio is available anywhere though.

Ash

Hi Asher.....

'As the equity charts correct, do you think we likely to see gold rise today?'

-------------------------------------------------


Well.....it looks like stocks and gold are negatively correlated just now..........but that's probably just the way the charts are moving at present. They will likely both become 'risk assets' again in the near future. The greenback is 'calling the tune'.........

Gold is correcting upwards in volatile swings.........

Stocks have now begun the decline..........but they will still have to correct upwards ........

Best currently not to adhere to the 'buy the drop' scenario.........unless for a short-time....and you know where to exit.

PJ

http://www.centamin.com/centamin/dlibrary/panda/2013%20AGM%20Proxy%20Circular.pdf

Is it possible to mention share buy backs / special dividends at AGMs prior to an RNS?

Ash

Hi pj/all

As the equity charts correct, do you think we likely to see gold rise today?

Ash

'Conspiracy theory....China beats the price down on its own, conspiring with no one...Metal at the lowest price is their only concern.'

-------------------------------------------------

Well, as usual ( and as I pointed out several months ago).......they got this completely wrong.

No.......the money managers have been extolling the fact that central banks have been buying since the back-end of last year, coupled with chinese and Indian metal interest, as a likely SUPPORT for gold prices.

Au contraire.........au contraire..........

I mentioned that the record buying this year was actually a 'bad' thing for gold prices..........

What the central banks were actually doing was buying the correction.............unfortunately...........they didn't know that prices were heading much lower.

Did I mention that central banks were rather poor traders ?

As always....the market is a place.........pj

'China output down...markets down.
US touches the brakes...market slows...'

---------------------------------------------------

Au contraire web.....au contraire.........

Firstly china output has been revised down or falling for quite a while now....markets have still risen.....

Meanwhile.........the US haven't actually touched the brakes..........yet !

Nope, there wasn't even any correlation with Dr Ben's hint of reducing stimulus in June........check the chart.

Although the media are pointing to Ben's speech as 'the reason' for the fall ( they would wouldn't they ?) ....... a cursary look at the daily charts shows that the DOW reversal was hours before the speech.

In fact.....it was exactly where the chart hit the upper-trend-line..............
And note the volume increase of the fall compared to the months and months of buying previously.....it was far far higher.

The market is a place of irony and contradiction.

PJ

China output down...markets down.
US touches the brakes...market slows...

Yep....I reckon one could virtually 'set ones watch' by the spot gold chart.............conspiracy theory anyone ????????
*******************************************************************************************************

Yep PJ when comex trading opens price goes down....90% certain...Its a tradition lol...

Conspiracy no, just an understanding that if you go against the norm you will get beaten up in the playground later...

Asia agree's whole heartedly with the concept of buy low, their purchases adding to demand exceeding new Gold supplied from Mines...Hmn...

Conspiracy theory....China beats the price down on its own, conspiring with no one...Metal at the lowest price is their only concern... Regards Phil...

ar-

The charts are very clear.........the US markets are in a 'bubble' ...........

The exponential nature of the rise can be clearly demonstrated on the US charts.........just as with gold at $1920.

Once it breaks the trend-line..............well.............Dr Ben won't need to say anything at all. PJ

'The chart is very clear imo....even down to the recent rise today which will take it back over $1400.
It will be coming back down however........90% certain.'

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Yep....I reckon one could virtually 'set ones watch' by the spot gold chart.............conspiracy theory anyone ????????

Bb1 - currently I have about a third in stocks and the rest cash. I have been taking a very short term view of markets and been trading on a short term basis.

This piece from marketwatch is a sober read, but sums up the dangers for markets pretty well I would have thought - note his 'Red flag' warning comment at the end.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happens-when-ben-pulls-the-punchbowl-2013-05-22

There probably is more upside, but the risks of staying heavily invested far outweighs what are probably relatively small gain from here on. AR

So are you all in cash Andy or hanging onto some as the rise continues?

pj - well the US is setting the pace, and the way its going it could continue on a while, BUT when markets do correct there will surely be a mighty bump down. Its positively crazy right now, and its very hard to read how far this bubble will inflate to before it does pop. Makes me decidedly nervous. AR

No premier league, no major finals, and no Olympics to keep us busy. Might as well get rid of the sports channels for a few months.

Anyone watching Gold this afternoon? $20 up and $30 down in no time, hold on to your hats!

just realised this morning that my entertainment for the summer will come from my investments in CEY and SXX (sirius minerals). i say this because we have no premier league for 3 months. what a pair of investments they are though, extreme happiness/unhappiness is possible. forgive me if this has been discussed before but i was interested in the possibility of dividends. at the recent investor briefings the management suggested that divis/buy back were being discussed , with a leaning to divi but mindfull that cheap share price made buy back attractive. they seemed to suggest that a hybrid was on the cards. once heavy capex came to end later this year they said that they would have masses of cash and far more than they needed for cash flow ongoing.again suggestion was for an announcement this year. they said that under their agreement they were due to pay egiptian government their share starting next year. however they said that they had already started paying them on the basis that it was politicaly better to make governments payments first to pave way for dividend payments.

'Surely the purpose of Gold is a hedge & store of safety (often ridiculed by PJ by pointing to the top of the market price down to todays, never from the low up to todays price)'

--------------------------------------------------

I don't ever remember saying gold is not a 'store of value' Phil.............I've just pointed out that it's not always a 'safe-haven' during turbulent economic times and will follow the chart despite the conspiracy theories.

You are correct that gold has held its value over time......but that doesn't mean it will go up forever.

The chart is very clear imo....even down to the recent rise today which will take it back over $1400.
It will be coming back down however........90% certain.

All assets and stocks follow their own charts............thus........although the gold stocks are currently very risky. there are a couple that are looking like recovery plays.

MML did finally produce a 'morning star type' candlestick the other day and may now rise strongly.
SHG looks promising too.

PJ........not always bad-mouthing the yellow-stuff

p&l - I am predominantly looking at the charts of COMEX and GLD, and its quite simple, they are showing sentiment towards gold/paper gold is fragile, and the trend is currently down. I am not going to fight the trend. Likewise the charts of various goldies look distressed, but currently no sign of a reversal yet. TA is about trusting and following the charts message, albeit you may be misinterpreting it.

You have your approach and I have mine, but I feel you are making things unnecessarily complicated. Keep it simple. So much easier to follow the market and the trend than get tied up with a lot of supposition and belief in some' fundamental truth'.

Over the long term gold has risen substantially, and inevitably fallen back substantially. It strikes me you, and many gold bugs, are in denial about that basic truth, and are trying to argue that 'this time it is different'. Its for that reason you are trying to deny the current pull back, or explain it with conspiracies.

I am just taking things step by step, and avoiding the sector for now, but if it shows a turn around I will certainly consider buying back. I just cant see the sense of fighting the market. ATB - AR

http://www.blanchardonline.com/investing-news-blog/econ.php?article=6051&title=Gold%27s_%22double_bottom%22_could_signal_fresh_run_to_%241%2C500

Imvho and please dyor

Egon von Greyerz interview excert




“Instead they would redeem in cash. The custodian for ABN AMRO, for the gold, is UBS, and UBS decides to what extent they hedge the ABN paper gold position.


So as there is no more physical redemption of the ABN AMRO gold accounts, it seems these contracts are no longer backed by physical gold. It’s just backed by paper, and this is of course typical for the paper market, Eric. This paper market, which is 100 times bigger than the physical market, probably has zero percent backing of physical. This is why ABN stopped redeeming in gold.
***************************************************************************************************
AR comment...
"Currently gold bugs are relying on conspiracy theories to deny gold bearish trend, or on hope some black swan event will suddenly come to golds rescue. Neither seem a plausible, or good basis on which to rush into the sector at the moment.

Andy if you please, can you explain the dichtomy of the Paper Gold market being bearish in price & the Gold metal market being bullish in demand for supply...

As the paper markets are meant to be a price discovery mechanism for the futures, the altra low price is failing to bring supply to the market, as demonstrated by the refineries working flatout & failing to keep up, as they re-work large bars, scrap & new gold, to supply smaller units of bars coin blanks ect...

What we are seeing is a Gold run, or is that a run on Gold, with fractional Gold bank holdings being found out, I.E. Not only do banks not have our money (cash) niether do they have the Gold (metal)...

Andy your call on stocks has proven to be good,i take my hat off to you... Is it a flight of cash from banks to stocks for a perception of some safety from the banking insecurity & possible bail in confiscations, V a stock bubble type situation being fed by the QE for ever, to back the US dollar, via banking support, by the general publics purse ultimately...If the latter it could run for a long time yet, but will end badly...

AR comment "Personally I think the downside risk outweighs any potential recovery for gold at the moment, and I prefer to opt for the cautious option. As ever I could be wrong, but its important people make their own minds up, but certainly treat the gold related sites views with a great deal of scepticism, if not totally discount them."
***************************************************************************************************

Andy so you opt for the cautious option, is that a wait & see??? Surely this approach is that of a commodity broker/trader, A another share, which is fine, but the opposite to the metal hoarder, which by definition is what a gold bug is, price may well go lower, but availability maybe the altimate reason to buy now...

To give the Cyprus EG, those holding some Gold have at least a stake to build off of, the cash holders lost the bulk of cash...

Cyprus does not seem very important to most in the rest of the west, but it is MASSIVE, it has set a precedent...

Surely the purpose of Gold is a hedge & store of safety (often ridiculed by PJ by pointing to the top of the market price down to todays, never from the low up to todays price) but its a long term limited %age of a wise portfolio, like a family hierloom never sold but always there....

As always i have a lot of time for your views AR...Regards Phil...

TT - its hard to say, but the recent test of the original low of $1322 - around $1335 I think a couple of days ago - wasnt on massive volume, like the original fall, and that offers some hope the fall 'might' be slowing for now.

Given that the April fall was so dramatic, I cant see a sudden recovery to the breakdown point of $1565 happening, but its a matter of seeing how much gold falls below $1322, IF that is what it does, taking things step by step.

Personally I think the downside risk outweighs any potential recovery for gold at the moment, and I prefer to opt for the cautious option. As ever I could be wrong, but its important people make their own minds up, but certainly treat the gold related sites views with a great deal of scepticism, if not totally discount them.

Currently gold bugs are relying on conspiracy theories to deny gold bearish trend, or on hope some black swan event will suddenly come to golds rescue. Neither seem a plausible, or good basis on which to rush into the sector at the moment.

I am happy to wait for a trend reversal signal, even if it doesnt mean getting in right at the bottom. I know one conspiracy theory poster (no names!) has picked African Barricks bottom some 200p+ above its current level, which just shows how risky it is to base your approach on 'conspiracies', let alone try to pick the bottom without reference to, or understanding of the chart.

As ever, fascinating to see how gold plays out, and how far markets can go - I did suggest some time back I could see the FTSE getting to between 6700 to 6800, and today it vaulted past 6800! Eeek! The air is getting very thin! ATB - AR

Andy

Do you think the decline is slowing down a bit. I think we may be 10% or so away from the bottom on most FTSE gold stocks.

Tony

p&l - most of the goldie BBs are awash with these conspiracy articles, and most come from gold bull web sites unsurprisingly. Attempts by the big boys and governments to manipulate the market are nothing new, but its ironic that QE, which was supposed to be propelling Gold to $2000 and onto $4000, doesnt seem to be working, so maybe something else is behind golds fall.

Equity markets, on the other hand, are the current beneficiaries of QE, and are on a veritable sugar rush at the moment. Oddly BBs arent awash with warnings of a conspiracy to manipulate equity markets up, just a few cautioning they are getting overstretched and could pull back sharply reasonably soon.

Also, nobody complained about the massive amount of 'paper gold' being traded in the form of ETFs when gold was making its sustained rise to its $1900+ peak (I know you prefer the metal stuff!), but the ETFs were instrumental in adding considerable ziz to gold's bull run. Unfortunately they are now having the opposite effect, as 'loose hands' are more likely to sell such an easily tradeable instrument.

So, sorry to say I dont buy all these conspiracy 'explanations'. It purely down to that prosaic old story 'what goes up comes down' driven by investor sentiment. AR

Amo - "stu.pid is as stu.pid does"

......................

Amo - "stu.pid is as stu.pid does"