What I hadn't fully realised fully was the number of perforations we are talking about. As an example the FRR presentation pack says that the plan for Stage 1 Perforation Interval at Zone 15 is expected to hit two areas (2652 - 2655m and 2618-2620m) with 40 planned perforations. Zone 14 has another 40 planned perforations. Dino 2 is again similar - but even more planned perforations
I guess these plans may have been adjusted in the light of new data - but reading the link does highlight the fact that this is not (and never has been) just a simple "plug and play".
Anyway - very best of luck from me to the guys on the ground
My PB shares are showing on my II trading account. I completed the online transfer request to notify the team in Leeds that I've got subscription shares coming. This is the advice I was given by PB when I rang them last week. The guy at PB was really helpful and had been working with II to ensure smooth transfer of FRR subscriptions to all those with II accounts. I am rather impressed with PB.
Me old mucker, trucker, interesting point about oil stained cutting from a depth of 2,460m to 2,475m. Yes it's only oil stains and it doesn't prove anything, so agreed. But isn't that the reason why FRR specifically stated 'caution' in the RNS and wanted to do further log analysis and a wireline? Also bear in mind that FRR was never targeting Zone 13 only 9, 14 & 15, so this could be a bonus play that stretches across Dino and T39 and may be across the Taribani field? So, accrding to my rudimentary maths, 15mrts or 50ft of Oil play could be a massive bonus, and we could do with some luck for once.
But according to Zaza "..........early indications of a highly charged hydrocarbon formation mark an exciting opportunity to develop Zones 14 and 15". (But he didn't say zone 13, so I guess it's best to assume nothing at 13).
Hmmm, interesting... The part where it says.. Oil stained cuttings observed from 2460m - 2475m (Zone 13) That has bee niggling in the back of my head... Oil stained cuttings, could just mean the cuttings that came up from the ground were Black. Oil stained. Not that there was any oil there....
But what do I know. I will be happy when we get actual results, as far as I am concerned, there is no oil and no gas. Until they get it to the surface and put a flow rate on it then it does not exist. FACT! I am invested and hope the gamble pays off, but if no oil or gas turn up, its been just that, a gamble. Been here long enough, £3.5K as good as written off. 200% rise, and I will walk away with something.
Young King Arthur was ambushed and imprisoned by the monarch of a neighboring kingdom. The monarch could have killed him, but was moved by Arthur's youthful happiness. So he offered him freedom, as long as he could answer a very difficult
question. Arthur would have a year to figure out the answer; if, after a year, he still had no answer, he would be killed.
The Question: What do Women really want?
Such a question would perplex even the most knowledgeable man, and, to young Arthur, it seemed an impossible query. Well, since it was better than death, he accepted the monarch's proposition to have an answer by year's end. He
returned to his kingdom and began to poll everybody: the princess, the prostitutes, the priests, the wise men, the court jester. In all, he spoke with everyone but no one could give him a satisfactory answer. What most people did tell him was to consult the old witch, as only she would know the answer. The price would be high, since
the witch was famous throughout the kingdom for the exorbitant prices she charged.
The last day of the year arrived and Arthur had no alternative but to talk to the witch. She agreed to answer his question, but he'd have to accept her price first: The old
witch wanted to marry Gawain, the most noble of the Knights of the Round
Table and Arthur's closest friend! Young Arthur as horrified: she was hunchbacked and
awfully hideous, had only one tooth, smelled like sewage water, often made obscene noises . . . He had never run across such a repugnant creature. He refused to force his
friend to marry her and have to endure such a burden. Gawain, upon learning of the proposal, spoke with Arthur. He told him that nothing was too big of a sacrifice compared to Arthur's life and the preservation of the Round Table. Hence, their wedding was proclaimed, and the witch answered Arthur's question:
What a woman really wants is to be able to be in charge of her own life.
Everyone instantly knew that the witch had uttered a great truth and that Arthur's life would be spared. And so it went. The neighboring monarch spared Arthur's life and
granted him total freedom. What a wedding Gawain and the witch had! Arthur was torn between relief and anguish.
Gawain was proper as always, gentle and courteous. The old witch put her worst
manners on display. She ate with her hands, belched and farted, and made everyone uncomfortable. The wedding night approached.
Gawain, steeling himself for a horrific night, entered the bedroom. What a sight awaited! The most beautiful woman he had ever seen lay before him! Gawain was astounded and asked what had happened. The beauty replied that since he had been so kind to her (when she'd been a witch), half the time she would be her horrible,
deformed self, and the other half, she would be her beautiful maiden self. Which would he want her to be during the day and which during the night?
What a cruel question! Gawain began to think of his predicament:
During the day a beautiful woman to show off to his friends, but at night, in the privacy of his home, an old spooky witch? Or would he prefer having by day a hideous witch, but by night a beautiful woman to enjoy many intimate moments?
Errrr - drill kicks are pretty common in oil and gas fields. It is the way drill kicks are managed that is critical, and that is why we have a whole series of expert suppliers working away even as we tap into our keyboards.
Great RNS - Not IMHO. My opinion is that the last RNS was not professional, verging on desperation, and it should not have been issued. See my interpretation of the RNS in brackets below. ZZ please wait until you have some useful facts before issuing the next RNS please. GLA.
The Company confirms that during drilling it has observed multiple oil and associated gas shows (no flowed volumes or flowrates given so probably not a drop of oil or gas was flowed to surface), notably:
· Oil stained cuttings observed from 2460m - 2475m (Zone 13).
(not an indication of commercial quantities)
· Formation gas kick was encountered at 2535m (Zone 14). This associated gas influx reduced the heavy drilling mud weight from 2.0 SG to 1.85 SG, indicating a highly charged hydrocarbon formation.
(this means they were using too low a mud weight and could have had a blow-out!!)
· Formation associated gas was detected at surface while drilling through an observed clean sandstone interval from 2565m to 2575m (Zone 14).
(not an indication of anything commercial)
· Significant oil and associated gas shows recorded between 2630m and 2650m (Zone 15).
(what does "significant" mean in this context - no proof that these shows are commercial)
· A major associated gas kick occurred at 2633m resulting in a reduction of mud weight from 2.02 SG to 1.85 SG. Hydrocarbons flow back operations were initiated and a surface fluid flow rate of 383 bbls per day was recorded (with heavy drilling mud in the wellbore) and a calculated 7,500 psi bottom hole pressure. Elevated background gas with significant connection gas peaks was also encountered while continuing to drill through Zone 15 to a depth of 2650m.
(this is the second blow-out situation they have risked because the mud weight was again too low. What does "hydrocarbon flow back operations" mean - were they just circulating out the gas kick, or did they do a well test. Suspect it was the former because no produced volumes are given. So let's say they took 4 minutes to shut-in the well. 383 / 24 / 60 x 4 = 1 bbl influx !!!)
· Intermittent oil shows with associated gas continued from 2650m - 2654m.
(not an indication that it is commercial or will even flow)
· Significant oil and associated gas shows recorded from 2685m to 2695m (Zone 15). Within this interval, a major associated gas kick occurred at 2692m with a calculated 7,800 psi bottom hole pressure.
(yet another blow-out risked because the mud weight is too low, the third)
Company cautions that, without further wireline logging and analysis, the positive initial indications should not be considered conclusive. The Company is progressing with the full data acquisition program and will report to the market in due course. (TRUE !!!)
Hi Pectin, I'll try to answer your questions: The 2.0sg mud was about as heavy as they would want to go. It's around 17ppg which to give an idea is the weight the Soviets were using when they were borderline fraccing the wells with drilling mud!
I think we got it just about right; nothing wrong with a bit of kick.
Regarding commingling the zones, this is all managed when it's cased, logged and the perforation decisions are made - very precise targets can be perforated to manage this.
A huge part of the risk with T45 was this drill, and it was done successfully. What happens next? You celebrate FFS!
The connection gas peaks in zone 15 are telling (connection gas is when the mud pumps are momentarily switched off to allow pipe connections at surface) - a general background pressure suggests this "highly charged" zone is going to flow like a mother F!
And look at the size of zone 15!!!!!
I like Zaza's caution in this RNS. He got over excited about Ud-2 and although I am totally confident that the stage 2 zone bigger frac in Ud-2 will flow very nicely, Zaza thought it would be an easier job in the Autumn and I think he allowed his excitement to get the better of him, and he knows this.
So, they've gone the other way with this T45 RNS - I actually think they're significantly under-selling T45. A lot of this caution is Dustin.
And here we are: The market hasn't responded to this fabulous drill. Maybe the market has become desensitised by the bells and whistles you get from Lenigas Gatwick Gushers and his sort, but what we have here is a very nice drill, using techniques learnt from years of technical study in Georgia as well as knowledge transferred from the West Texas, that is quietly and professionally being worked through to production.
Have to agree this guy's posts are very compelling - and he has previously admitted to be deeply connected to those in the O&G sector.
Don't think he is linked to YJ etc - he has posted on other shares and looking at them they don't share the same sets of brokers/advisors
For what it is worth he seems to be very convinced that everything they have been doing in recent months bears the hallmark of a CEO briefed to go out and secure a strategic partner for both the gas and the oil. Also very convinced that all the work needs to be done at steady pace - not to rush and make the mistakes of the past.
Saint - I kinda agree with your observation that Kickmuck must have some close association to FRR given his insightful analysis and direct comparison to the 'Texas oil renaissance'. And, if this is the case, its great to hear that FRR may apply some of these new methods and technologies to Taribani wells. More and more, it seems, T-45 could actually be a "test case" for the rest of the field, and if this is successful, yahoo, we have a great asset to monitise and...............quickly.
All I can say is, fingers crossed for the next stage of the operations. Will we have some news before the full well results? I hope so because we need clarity that the frac-stack-stimulations were executed successfully and are just waiting for stabilized flow rates.
If the PR team is reading this post, plz give us an update on the Gas Window.
Finally, his last line is pretty convincing "....................great time to be invested in Frontera as this hugely exciting development and exploitation campaign of this world class asset starts moving forward at pace"
Well, we will see...(but feel compelled to say........ Good Luck all)
SB: Thanks for reposting.
Kickmuck does seem to have expert knowledge and plenty of it. Is there insight too in his post? Could he be employed by FRR or one of the companies on the ground perhaps...?
Great Post from 'Kickmuck' over from LSE BB - clearly knows his O&G stuff, so thank you to him for his research and opinion. This type of post/information reinforces our confidence in the Taribani geology and potential. I think I mentioned on Monday that the RNS released on T45 was unusually very detailed and provided a lot revelations on the different payzones, so fracking could be targeted in the right zone. I think it's an exciting time to be involved in this fully funded 3-oil well campaign. But we still await from clarity on Ud.
Here kickmucks post - enjoy.......
"A successful drill to deepen T45 giving a fresh bore from 2,400 down to 2,700; carefully balanced and managed to avoid the skin damage that£s previously been a problem with the Taribani wells and some fresh ideas on how the wells are to be produced to avoid the silt problems, ref. the US Permian basin case study.
The T45 drill has successfully exposed 300 meters of fresh formation in such a way as to allow these rocks to be opened up like never before.
SN referred investors to the stacked pays of the Permian basin and the recent oil renaissance in West Texas over the last decade. At the end of the 1970£s they thought West Texas was dry; now it is one of the most productive oil producing areas of the US.
But why drill with deepening / sidetrack verticals; why aren't we splashing out on laterals in zone 14 and 15?
Understand that the vertical well has been critical in the West Texas Permian to sight zones and many operators built portfolios around vertical wells particularly in the Midland basin stacked plays. Vertical wells are cheaper than horizontal wells, more insightful for field development because multi zones can be produced / sighted and lower risk because if one zone doesn£t flow, there are others in the stack without additional drilling. Look at the work of Denzil West at Reliance Energy £ he proved up 40,000 acres / 43million boe with mostly vertical wells, sold to Concho in 2016 for $1.63 billion. Taribani is potentially 155million b oil and lord knows how much gas! Bigger. Much bigger!
Note, Denzil West now heads up Admiral Permian Resources which is bank rolled by your old friends at Riverstone.
It's really important to understand a key difference between the Taribani rock and the West Texas Permian is the petrophysics. Porosity in the Wolfcamp layers for example is between 4% to 12%. In the Eldari A at Taribani you have cores and logs exceeding 15% and up to 20% porosity. Also Permian basin formations generally have lower permeability, under 2 or maybe 3mD whereas in the Eldari we£re looking at up to 4 and 5md in Dino and Nico cores and logs.
As Dustin told investors in London, the petrophysics are simply jaw dropping!!
It's a great time to be invested in Frontera as this hugely exciting development and exploitation campaign of this world class asset starts moving forward at pace."
IMHO the 4 trades of 5M at 9:24am, then the 40odd M trade at 12:00noon are probably all buys on a T+2 or T+5 basis, as buys of this months YA share allocation that will officially hit the trading register after the 23rd so that it all squares off properly.
You think there must be something going on behind the scenes. These last 2 months in therms of the YA amount have been odd.
We had the II last month popping up whose net change was 68,613,953 - the exact number YA had to sell in January but dont think if thy purchased the full whack of YA's shares thins month it would bring them about the 5% threshold.
Big sell timed at 12pm for 48,124,401 priced at 0.5152p. Recall that total shares issued to YA for Feb Conversion of Preference Shares was 68,124,401, so with matching last six digits corresponding with both trades, it is fair to say that we are done with YA for this month. But strange it was not 'churned on Monday' when we had a super RNS? Anyway, we have another 2 months to tolerate YA conversions go with around 125M shares to be issued, which against the shares in circulation of 15.5bn doesn't sound much [or another c.0.8% dilution]. I guess the critical observation to make is that YA has profited by an extra c.23% from Feb strike price to a sell price, which equates to an additional profit of around GBP35k [not a lot in the context of things, but I guess it still 'pinches' us LTHs when we see the lower strike price].
So, now that they are out of the way, can we expect some more news on the T45 or Ud this week? I think so - may be by Friday either via RNS or may be by twitter feed. If management have held back some news to clear YA dump - well, I say well done Zaza - they have squeezed our balls enough over the past 6 months.
Perhaps this is another reason why Monday's stonking RNS was dampened down abit by the FRR team to keep a lid on the s/p rise - again if this is the case, they are trying to protect the shareholders. And this obviously represents a wonderful buying opportunity as wireline anlysis and/or update on the gas Window is not priced in yet.
As usual, I offer just some food for thought and for others perhaps a few tuppence for the whip round to buy some sausage rolls for our freebie seeker.
A trade of 48,124,401 has popped up which signals YA are out for the month with the other 20m having been 'sold' as round number sales.
It strikes me as interesting that this trade has apparently happened today at 0.5152p and has not affected the sp adversely. Does this mean that someone has purchased them at a mutually acceptable price? So is this the investor who has acquired the previous YA placements...?
Whatever has happened any buying now should move the sp North with the stock overhang having gone.
Excellent post Champion - confirms all my thoughts about FRR and it's investors - I am here because you are here.
'No brainer' is always used by people who have no .......
get your friend knees to help you fill that one in.
Love the emogees knees - further confirmation if it were needed.
Still the RNS shows that there is plenty both Gas and Oil .
It shows that there is *some* gas and *some* oil there but it doesn't tell you:
whether it's commercial
All you need is common sense to know that if there were substantial oil and gas there then:
1. The Russians would have found it when they did their geological surveys 40+ years ago.
2. The Russian s would have depleted that oil and gas like they did with all the other oil and gas that they depleted 40 years ago.
3. Frontera would have found it when they first started drilling over a decade ago.
4. It would actually be mentioned in the competent person's report that Frontera commissioned, which says there is no probable or proven reserves where Frontera are drilling.
But put all that aside for just one second and note:
If they'd found material quantities of oil and/or gas wouldn't Zaza have published flow rates? Because that would have sent the share price shooting up and Zaza loves a share price shooting up.
MrP - not sure i agree that the PB or YA shares have hampered today's news - I think it's a convenient statement for people to try to explain why the shares have not risen as much as today's great news deserved. Firstly, the monthly YA conversion have become a regular feature for LTHs so nothing new there, and shares issued have 'trickled' down to around 65m (no biggie when compared to the average monthly volume). Secondly, any one who participated in the PB fundraising is sitting on a small profit but not enough to crystallise a small gain so I don't think majority sold today, some yes maybe but majority no. Perhaps the yo-yoing in today's s/p is a classic MMs trick, locking in a lot people who bought early in the day.
The other explanation could be that the Market wants some clear production (comingled) numbers on T45 before it ascribes a value, which is fair enough especially when you consider that successful flow rate will automatically derisk the other 2 oil wells (Dino & T39). Plus the cautionary statement in today's RNS, was probably inserted at the request of NOMAD, again fair enough.
As far as FRR is concerned, I think it wanted to share today's good news after the PB fundraising plus there was some anxiety amongst the faithful on whether the company would announce news on reaching TD? So they did giving us all comfort that drill went to plan. And for me, the news gave great revelation on the different payzones which will help to frack and stimulate the right depths. I guess this is where the technical experts come in to play, namely Dustin (good opp for time to earn his stripes quickly). But equally, the Market is punishing dud wells, just look at UKOG today, so plenty of jittery nerves in the O&G investor community. This combined with nearly 3 months of rising p.i frustrations (from delayed Dino and inconclusive Ud gas well), sandwiched between equity conversions, some will have lost patience and pulled out on first rise.
But big news is around the corner imo. Malcy is apparently in Georgia next week but before then, hopefully T45 can be completed. The cherry on the cake could be commencing Ud fracking in time for Malcy's arrival so he can cover off the potential of both the oil and gas.
Interesting to see Kalan now being an 'enthusiast' with FRR.
This is what Kalan wrote last Thursday: "My crystal ball is clearing.... I see .53p in the short term followed by a fall back - current pattern lower highs and lower lows.."
This is what Kalan wrote the next day: "On balance worth a gamble - so I have put up at .48p and change. Biggest aim to drill on AIM."
This is what Kalan wrote a week earlier: "0.466p mmm if it drops 20% below that I may get my target entry value at around .38p. He (Zaza) is doing a great job - managing expectations - lying about the placement allowed them to get a higher price because the sp would have fallen if he had let that news out - making it harder for him to raise the 2.5 million. How many months until ZaZA and SN can sell their shares? About 4 months or so - getting closer and closer - still no commercial gas or oil - but there will be next month, won't there.
Question: Is ZaZa a liar? Answer: He is the leader of an AIM company. QED."
I won't bother going further back into his posts, but most of us here know what he's about. He did this the last time he had a flutter with FFR as well.
So he calls FRR's CEO a 'liar', yet is happy to invest in his 'lies'. Or maybe he thinks it is all still a lie, but is hoping to make a small profit based on LTHs' overenthusiasm to get the SP up, so he reckons we're all just fools. Just too clever for the rest of us, I suppose.
I have nothing against punters making money on AIM (that's what we're here for), but for heaven's sake don't go bleating on about your entry price and bashing the company when it suits you, then changing your tune a day later and posting 'BUY' recommendations now that you're in. Just keep quiet and make your profits (or losses), and post if you have something constructive (positive or negative).
Kalan - I appreciate you're here to trade FRR, but keep silly comments like calling ZM a 'liar' to yourself as it's an immature comment to make. Some of us have a lot of skin in this share and it isn't nice when you're gloating about the SP going down when LTHs around you are losing money. I'm fortunate enough to have a rather large holding with a very low average, so often ignore your unfounded and often unbalanced comments, but I'm sure other PIs also get irritated and I wanted to post this so that others on here are aware of your 'dynamic' positions with FRR.
You obviously have been in this game for a long time and are knowledgeable and have the time (as a pensioner?) to research a great deal etc, so we would be happy to have your constructive views from time to time, but please don't post alternating views dependant on your position in FRR. If you need to trade and make money on FRR, share that joy with your family, I'm sure you don't need our approval or disdain. I've also traded FRR several times in addition to my LT holding, but I haven't annoyed this BB and kept quiet about it (as I'm sure other LTHs have as well).
Anyway, good luck with your trade here, although it really is a no-brainer with the anticipation of (good/outstanding) news flow around the corner.
A short term shot in the arm for FRR or SAVP from inclusion in the bucket list isn't to be sniffed at - but not convinced about Malcy's ability to pick winners any more than some well researched individuals e.g. ToT or yourself Michu.
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