CD you have done what everyone dreams of when they put £20,000 in to their ISA. Your Investment has gone up circa 50 fold and depending on your exact holding you are now a Griffin millionaire. Well done - RESPECT!
Yes felling very SMUG however it all boils down to luck bumping into the previous GFM chairman but what a result I have had bought the majority @ 3.5p now £1.60 never sold any so I am a happy chappy , not really sure where the GFM ride will finish up , I bet the GFM BOD are a happy bunch with all there optioons @ 0.30p
Alas not a problem I share.....but if I did I would be selling in reasonable sized tranches. At those kind of volumes your selling costs won't make such a difference (i.e. if you get hit with say 10x£10 to sell in 10 tranches as opposed to 2x£10 to sell twice).
More tranches will also even out the price you get - note what has happened over the last few days. Going all in on one day risks missing out on a rise (or benefiting from missing a fall I suppose).
Whatever, with the price at an all time high (whatever your purchase price) you'll be banking a very nice profit so congratulations.
GFM Griffin Mining following through from yesterday and making new highs. Note on the chart the increase in volume over the last 10/11 days. More in this according to broker Cantor who have a present SP target of 190p
Another great day for holders of this stock. I must confess that I am feeling unattractively smug (not as smug as CD with his 600,000 shares). I said a number of years ago that 2018 would be the year for GFM and indeed it is the year of the Griffin. The only stock rated 100 out of 100 on Stockopedia. Not a ramping outfit , a respect independent research establishment. If zinc holds up and the license comes through the re-rated figure could easily be surpassed especially with a dividend in August. The good news is not yet in the price. Under £1.60 this remains a strong buy.
GFM Griffin Mining........... Breaking out and upwards along with other base metal miners. After a positive last update to the market covering broker Cantor have yet again very recently increased forecasts.
IMO Good news following a disdapointing week alround last week except for the Y/E figures IMO the receiving of the missing licence wou;d transform the SP dramatically
It would once again appear that patience is the key so IMO if you do not have to sell hang in there for a bit longer
I seem to recall that around 10 years or so, ago, GFM made a move to take over a lead mine in Australia. Can't recall the full reasoning behind the decision not to proceed, but it may have been connected with the costs of handling the lead after production. Hope my memory isn't playing tricks with me, lol
My understanding/belief is that the timescale was an issue - indeed there is still no clear way forward with regards to the lignite project becoming profitable. At the same time, SRO board is looking for alternative projects - I believe that had GFM maintained its holding then the financing of any SRO projects could have become very complicated /messy.
Nothing else to add - just hoping to see a Zone II license before I retire !!
Best wishes to you and all other posters - new, old and very old !
(I should have made it clear - the first two paragraphs in last post were lifted from GFM annual reports - not my interpretations)
TM thanks for your reply . I have little wish to labour the point but how can a guy realise an asset then decide to relinquish it at a loss to GFM share holders yet still feel that it has value to himself.? By the way i have moved on i,m just trying to answer unanswered questions that lay on my conscience, for posterity/prosperity you understand...
As originally stated in 2008 - 'This is a long term, high risk venture. But the economic rewards, should Spitfire Oil Limited be successful, will be enormous and Company transforming.'
Subsequently in 2013 - At the beginning of 2013, following a strategic review of the Group's activities and future direction, the directors determined that Griffin's 39.2% interest in Spitfire Oil Limited ("Spitfire") was peripheral to the Group's activities and should be realised.
The original purchase of 16,666,667 ordinary shares in Spitfire had been an opportunistic acquisition with a view to diversifying the Group's activities. Following Spitfire's decision to suspend development of the Salmon Gums lignite deposits due to the uneconomic nature of the estimated return on capital outlayed, the Griffin directors concluded that additional value could not be realised in the near term from Griffin's investment in Spitfire.
On the 30th December 2013, Spitfire purchased Griffin's total interest in Spitfire by acquiring 16,666,667 Spitfire shares for 5 pence per share.
None of this requires that GFM board members should not be SRO board members.
Interestingly, in 2011 or 12 - can't remember which - I asked Mr Ninkov what he felt about the prospects of the lignite project - he was confident that assets could be sold at a profit at that stage. Even now the company has renewed its license over the Salmon Guns Project area despite the difficulties in establishing a viable process to exploit the high oil content of these lignite deposits.
Interestingly, the BOD at SRO are currently not claiming any fees or salary.....
Not sure what the board did wrong there - following is announcement in Annual Report 2008.
The Company made a number of acquisition attempts during the year. On the plus side, in May 2008, the Company bought back its own shares from Citadel Investment Group, realising a gain of over $30 million. From the same seller Griffin was able to acquire, for £2.5 million, over 39% of
Spitfire Oil Limited, a company listed on the AIM of the London Stock Exchange. This company is attempting to economically extract fuel oils and other by-products from the huge Salmon Gums lignite deposit in Western Australia. This is a long term, high risk venture. But the economic rewards, should Spitfire Oil Limited be successful, will be enormous and Company transforming.
So at time of making $30 million they speculated with £2.5 million - this didn't work out but led to a loss of approx $2 million - I'd be happy if they repeatedly lose $2 million out of $30 million profits from dealings outside of the main business.
So many things become obvious through the 'retrospectoscope' - and oh how clever are the people that use it !!
If you're not happy with the board why not just move on ?
I don't see the board going anywhere soon - nor would I want them to...........
BC. Not sure many on this board would agree with your comments. There may be some slight retrace over the next couple of months (unless of course there is a major positive - e.g. Licence- or negative e.g. Zinc tanking) with profit taking pending half year results in late July but I think most accept that the new trading range is likely to be something like £1.28 to £1.45 until then. No-one else that I am aware of consider the Board to be anything other than honest and reputable. Whilst many of us would have liked to see a dividend announcement , as has been commented before the absence thereof only goes to further swell the coffers. If you actually look back I was suggesting as early as December that this might well be the case!!!! Like you I have been in since 3p days with a current average circa 27p so for one am exceedingly happy wit her the current position.
The truth is GFM share holders will only ever make money from each other, nothing will ever come from the company. This means that SP needs to go up and down, currently the SPs much more likley to go down than up. it pains me to say this but i do believe that the board are being dishonest with what the choose to communicate and they choose not to communicate... Sorry guys but it is how i see it. AIMHO So share holders make money off each other , the mine workers make money for working in the mine, the big question is who gets the jam, the answer to that can only come from an honest BOD.
I have absolutly no complaints to make as i only started with a 3.5k investment all be it at a mere 3.5p. GLA
You have covered the four main areas of risk succinctly, but as for allocating a score for the level of each of those risks, I don`t operate like that. Suffice to say I have always
considered GFM was the riskiest stock in my portfolio, and it has taken a long time to come good, so it suits me to take " early profit " . I concede that the company could bear a lot more fruit.
Whilst AGM`s held in Bermuda are convenient for US holders, they are not convenient for most UK holders. I suggested to Roger Goodwin that they could host UK holders in London as an alternative. Roger wrote to me saying that an "investor day " was under consideration; that is the last I ever heard of the idea: fobbed off , and not impressed.
Bin. You state GFM is high risk. In the interest of balance Please list the high risk factors for the benefit of others on this board with your interpretation of the factors which make a high score.
For the purposes of this exercise let's use Risk (asassessed globally) as the product of 'impact' and 'likelihood' regardless of what scoring method per axis you use. 4 x 4 is one of the most common with 16 being high risk being of 'catastrophic' impact and also being 'almost certain' to occur. There are two scores for each risk - the 'inherent risk' and the 'controlled' risk. Let's use the latter for it better represents the real world .
IMHO I would comment as follows on some of the key risks I perceive.
(1) If you say operating in China - a risk yes -but their long history, safety record and community actions are hardly to score as high. I would suggest 6 as a max.
(2) price of zinc ,gold and silver. Dependent on world demand and certainly one to watch regularly. Numerous factors can influence commodity price At this point in time
for the foreseeable future again I think 6 max.
(3) mine accident. A clear risk but substantially mitigated by looking at historical records
(4) exchange rates - especially the strength or weakness of the dollar in which commodities are traded and sterling as GFM reports in £. To a certain degree these work against each other so to some degree partially offset each other.
I could go on but would welcome your take on GFM's key risks and comments on my perceptions .
Forgot to say that following the results GFM is now ranked the number 1 stock on Stockopedia. It is the only company (out of the whole lot) rated as 100 (the highest possible score). Stockopedia = proper independent research that you have to subscribe to in order to receive.
Bin, well done on making a profit but I am unsure about your lack of transparency comment. GFM are very aware that commodities are volatile and have always been cautious. I would like to have heard what the current bank balance is, what the dividend will be and have a trading update. However, we are only just past the half way mark for this half year of earnings. The BOD prefer to comment when they know the half year figures. They now have money and money talks. It is clear that they expect the license soon. If they double production then profits will soar. Commodity prices and China remain key risks but the sp is currently cheap based on earnings. The potential good news is not in the price. The current price looks high compared with the past but previously we were hampered by debt and miserable commodity prices. At these prices GFM is a strong buy.
MWF , I said in a previous post that markets sell the rumour buy the fact or buy the rumour and sell the fact. To a large extent the SP had moved back to the all time high the day before the results in anticipation of excellent results. We needed more to propel the SP further and therefore we have had inevitable profit taking. Last year we had a trading statement in July and results in early August and I believe that much good news is yet to come which is why I marked the results as a buy. Had the sp moved north of the £140-£160 range that I had predicted I would not have put a buy recommendation on the stock. Us being in China with Trump Sabre rattling for a trade war does not help but we are currently very cheap with a dividend and license still to come. A trading statement will show excellent trading and even higher cash levels. I expect a broker re-rate and a higher price in August.
I have to admit that I did top slice a few thousand yesterday, my logic was that without a mention of a dividend, I cannot see anything driving up the SP other than the licence being awarded (and we seem to have been waiting for many years for that). So till the interims are announced, hopefully early August , my money will be invested elsewhere.
I haven't gone through the numbers yet, but if small holding is right, 9x's for an AIM listed, Chinese mine with 3% projected growth doesn't sound that mad in a turbulent world. As you say, no divi, yet, it'll probably come and we don't know what we'll have to pay to get the new licence. So I think it is cheap, I'm not selling and would buy more on weakness if the metal market were to look like it was holding up at that time, but there are quite a few unknowns with no divi to pay you while you wait. We all think there is good upside and it wouldn't surprise me if some bigger buyers do some analysis and then buy, but most of these results were fully expected by long term watchers, the new buyers need to absorb what has been achieved/confirmed and then investigate what might still (hopefully) be achieved. IMHO.... SL
Cannot believe the price drop today. Surely the lack of a dividend or promise thereof in the chairmans statement couldnt have had such an impact. The results were at least in line with our regular posters expectations and should have been a nice surprise to the uninitiated. Something is clearly holding this back - Syria? based in China? AIM listing ?
It clearly has nothing to do with Brexit or the uk economy which dominates the Lloyds board. Not sure what to do now !! Phillip, sage,CD etc al what are your thoughts????
The mining sector may have enjoyed a more prosperous period in recent months. However, many of its constituents continue to offer low valuations and the potential for improving share price performance.
Certainly, the risks from declining commodity prices remain. The global economys performance could come under pressure and lead to a general slowdown. But with wide margins of safety, these two mining companies appear to be worth a closer look right now.
Reporting on Tuesday was zinc/gold miner Griffin Mining (LSE: GFM). The China-focused operator delivered a 91% increase in revenue, with its operating profit of $64m 319% higher than in the previous year. It delivered record production in 2017, while cash generated from operations of $77.4m enabled all bank loans to be repaid. It also allowed the company to invest $13.3m in further development of the Caijiaying mine, as well as in exploration and equipment purchases.
Looking ahead, Griffin Mining is expected to deliver a modest 3% rise in earnings in the current financial year. While there are mining stocks with higher forecast growth rates, the companys price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 9 suggests that it could offer good value for money. Thats especially the case since demand for gold miners could increase if global inflation expectations continue to rise.
Of course, the company is relatively small and seems to lack the diversity of some of its sector peers. Therefore it may mean a relatively risky investment opportunity. But with strong progress being made in its operational and financial performance, its low valuation suggests that it could deliver high rewards in the long run.
As results day comes to a close i feel that I must express my overall sense of disappointment at both the share price and the lack of any real signal on future dividend policy. The results themselves are excellent and I sincerely hope that an earlier poster is correct in suggesting a deliberate 'downplay ' for some greater reason still to become evident.
It is almost impossible to downplay what has been achieved in 2017...
They say you have got to sometimes look deeper into the words used by the chairman. Has he been given the objective of downplaying the results. If so why and by whom...
All in all I am not surprised in the least with the results, the Chinese are doing well, its a good mine and they are looking after the workforce, a major plus in my book. Just one gripe, if they spray paint the identification numbers onto those nice new vehicles then I will be most put out.
"In addition, although the share price of a company can often be a very poor indicator of the true value of that entity, it is pleasing for the shareholders that from the first to the last trading day in 2017, the share price of the Company moved from 53p to 116.5p, a rise of 120%, a trend which has continued unabated into 2018. "
In other words:
Recently, the market has gone in the same direction as the company.
There is no reason why this should have been the case.
You have yourselves to thank (for buying the shares from each other) for the rise in the share price.
But thank you all the same for happening to get it right on this occasion.
Conclusion (for a shareholder):
Pay attention to what the market does (this means you, folks). The company will be pleased on your behalf but can, and will, have absolutely nothing to do with whether you make any money or not.
PS As to the "small shareholders" owning the company, that's rather like the ants saying they own the anthill. Maybe they do but it's the farmer who owns the field. As I didn't want to cause offence I thought it best not to mention the farmer's flea-bitten dog. Oops!
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