I shouldn't have said anything I do agree word by word with what you say but ..I should just avoid commenting ! I don't want to start the usual bb war lol .
Apologies to all . We all have as much right to ramp or deramp I suppose . I just feel that there should be some disclosure in advance . Not after the fact . Some rationale . Otherwise it appears a bit false even if true
Sorry Elena and Shugg1e . I too trade CFDs and have quite a position long as posted live ( the 4 positions between 65 and 71 are all posted live ) .
There are a few.. (Elena, and Shuggle) are the latest two here who post pure guesswork but attempt to dress it as fact.
I have said all along $100 Oil..
That to is a guess, but its a guess based on Middle East tensions.
China, India development... etc etc..
Just as Analysts are guesses..
And just as your charts are... BUT.. with much input into research of historical trends etc..
But these 2 try to play the people... The people who may be gullible enough to fall for the spiel... Truth is.. It aggravates me no end..
Much like yourself, I really have no need to be here, except I like it when plans go right..
I am fuming about past 2 days drop, yet am able to see the ridiculousness of it..
"If" I were a trader I would be playing this now...
I very likely would have bought in tranches from the fall from £1.30p
The two mentioned play the people... Its all hindsight..
Ask them outright... What and where will the price be tomorrow... Next week... ask them to tie themselves down to a point and to clearly state where their buys and sells will be placed prior to the events.. Not After..
Heck, both their comments have as much credibility as me saying I went short at £1.29 and closed it at £1.17p today... We all know I didnt, because I make it clear I do not SB nor trade CFD's...
Am a trader too . Full time . I stopped working in the City at 38 to trade full time.
Am also a technician , not some random B.B. one but Chartered exams with the CMT . Going to add a CFA starting exam next June . I have daily access to hedge fund managers and family office colleagues who warned me of a retrace . Yet maintain a bullish stance .
My point is not to criticise the person but the timing .
Thats all .
I find it a little too easy to post a decision 24 hours late . And when a share retraces it can be seen as a bit annoying
I have nothing personal vs Elena . Am sure its just me being annoyed today and a mix of poorly timed post .
My strategy (if you can call it that) is to continue to hold 50% of my former holding, and have a finger over the buy button if I see further falls tomorrow. The View buttons are too restrictive. I mean strong buy for long term, but hold for the moment till the picture becomes clearer.
The targets have not disappeared.
Nor have I sold out completely in either share. But with the reversal yesterday I think my BP sale at 562p (I still hold some with dividend shares still owing) of 2 weeks ago now looking not such a dumb move.
PMO is still a good investment. I made my last purchase at 121p levels so it was important that I reduced margined positions completely and completely derisked my remaining holdings. There is still plenty of time to sell here.
Current production aside average oil front month future is not $67 so not sure where you get that. $67.2 was Q1 . YTD we have $69.2 , current spot $10 above that ! Not that investors seem to realise that
Add the value of the increased 2P + 2C reserves , Zama , Tolmount and a Brent curve in backwardation , back then the curve was diving and stayed down for 2.5 years .
I think today we lookign at substantial deleveraging in the next 12months and asset revaluation
I agree as you say these are simplistic calculations but nice to engage in .
Brent crude oil price likely to rise methinks after going from $80 to about $78 in last few days. Trump asked Kim to give him a call if he wants to re-arrange. I don't see that happening any more than Iran re-negotiating the nuke deal with America. These people won't loose face by bowing to the USA IMHO. Just can't see that happening. So my conclusion is what with venezuala being in a mess as well the oil price is going only one way. UP. RKH will benefit along with all oilies IMHO.
I dont really have time to explain but like i said before its based on the commodity oil itself which yesterday has broken down from a rising wedge which is short term bearish i see that there is continuation of this trend today with oil currently trading down over 1%
Right now you dont want to be long oil with bullish sentiment at 80%
I am expecting a nasty sell off in oil any day now.
If your interested silver is setting up nicely for a rally sosome of those miners are looking attractive FRES and HOC being the obvious choice.
Who would you follow a succesful with massive track record oil trader , ie Pierre or a succesful analyst with a rare track record Amrita ?
I attended a recent Platts conference discussing the sulphur reduction parameters too , another incredible development to come .
The only thing we are seeing is a pause , the longer dated Brent curve is at $70 ! Think when PMO switches the $58s for $70s....
The reality is that momentum ( turning to technical view) has been fantastic in the past few weeks and profit taking came in yesterday despite Brent spot well over $79 and a Q2 average now looking great .
Some stats for the 40% dilution posters ..
2015 full year Brent* averaged $53.6
Production averaged 57.6k
PMO price high = 191.4
Year averaged at 123.28p
2018 Q1 Brent averaged $67,2.
Q2 so far 74.27
Production current at 90k , full year guidance 80-85k .
PMO high price 132.7
Average so far 85.19p
I think that like for like a re-test of 190 by year end has some merit
Not to mention more important aspects like reserves, Sea LIon and Mexican massive find etc etc Toulmont etc They should propel PMO much further .
One last note on 2Ps and 2Cs
2015 = 758mm
2016 = 835mm
2017 = 902mm
I am taking bets we pass 1bn with Zama etc .
Am bullish sorry ;-)
You also saw me adding yesterday on a technical trade I do in uptrends .
"sell to lock in gains and dont fall in love with a share"
I dubt OPEC will increase production but they may well redistribute the lost production from Venezuela and the like, and the potential lost supply from Iran amongst the opec and non opec nations who have the capacity to exploit the gap.
I bet Russia are chomping at the bit to turn the taps up at these prices, could a few extra barrels be enough to persuade them to carry on with the price fixing?
Actually , fiscal budget in Saudi requires oil at much higher than $60s
Yes production is very cheap for them but given its their main source of income and they pay off their population they need oil to be high or face fiscal issues ( their currency reserves have been falling for a while too with recent bond market issuances , I think a rarity )
"The kingdom does not disclose the assumptions of oil prices in its budget projections, but the latest statistical report by the International Monetary Fund raised the projected fiscal breakeven price for the kingdom to $87.90 per barrel in 2018, up from $82.60 in 2017. For 2019, however, the fund projects a much lower price of $77.90 needed to balance the state budget."
No targets on this just pointers on resistance broken etc but more importantly a snippet on trading in an uptrend.
I use 2 RSI periods and look at them in 3 ways , Uptrend , Down trend and Sideways
Am running around 40 charts to see if more samples reproduce the same or similar benefits of identyfing the dip on a trend ( and how to do that ) .
Hopefully once I have some meaningful results I will get quants in my class to either dismiss my findings or give me a meaninful p-value and hence a strategy I can use in 3 conditions .
In down trends and sideways its not buy the dip anymore but more sell high RSi and buy low .
Hoping to come up with findings that are good in 1 month .
There are many other methods of course , some use stochastics obviously as its probably more of a leader than RSI
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