$55 is the hedged figure in the presentation that probably all on this bb have read already ! AMPLY publicised .
50% at 55 and the rest at the variable achieved ie the quarter average minus or plus discounts and premiums ( the average is at $67 this quarter , spot around $69 now, and what they have achieved will be 1/2$ away from average ie around $65 .
EQUALS my estimate 10$ average . 50% at $55 and 50% at $65 = $60 so the 10$ margin I always point to.
and API reports this week I found really surprising. Api expected plus 2m, actual was about minus 2M. Then the EIA report yeaterday was expected to show a build of about 2.5m, but it was the opposite, a draw on stocks of about 2.5 million barrels. To me this is significant. Very significant.
So its pretty obvious that the great quarter average has no effect on traders/investors minds as at the moment we are even higher than that .
What seems to affect this share is down days on Brent , and within the 8 to 16-30 hours . Rallies out of this timeframe have no impact , strange that.
Unfortunately to me it makes no sense at all but it is what it is . A 1% drop intraday or even 2% has more validity in the minds of investors than a quarter average at $67 ! ( spot now is at $68.8 but never mind that its irrelevant apparently )
What is not irrelevant is that starting at $55 we make $5 a barrel and at average $67 its probably above $15 . To 2 combined give my estimated $10 net to PMO .
As I was typing Brent went from -1.7% on my screen to -1,34 ! PMO price did not move , yet if the reverse happened we would have dropped 2p ...go figure what the heck is going on . No TA can save me with this one .
Was expecting a move up to re-test 76 today ! How wrong was I !!!!!!
What a very interesting and positive interview. Tolmount appears to be sorted regarding its financing etc. The plans for Zama in the next six months all sound rather positive. I picked up on the additional gas acreage in Indonesia and the comment that oil majors have been knocking at the door, really interesting. Lots still to be done with Sea Lion but again its moving forward and will be a game changer for PMO.
TD appeared very relaxed and confident, I feel encouraged.
I think the market has been convinced that USA shale production will overpower all the other reasons why the price may go up. The power of news articles. But fact is the ACTUAL price of Brent crude has been $62.50 to, what $70 ish per barrel ALL THIS YEAR. As I type this Brent is $69.41.
So Mr market look at the facts NOT what articles in the news predict.
We are @ $69 now. Next weeks API and EIA reports will be VERY interesting. Another 2 reports showing 4 or 5 million barrel drawers and where will the price of oil be then?!!!! I guess $75....
USA oil stock reports I must say. Both were expected to show oil stocks building but both showed they are getting lower, and by a long way.
The EIA report says crude stocks went down by 2.622m barrels, yet the consensus was for a build of 2.556m barrels. A difference of over 5 million barrels of oil. From memory the API report was similar but the difference about 4 million barrels.
So we have both these reports indicating crude oil stocks in the USA have gone down a fair bit when they were expected to RISE by a similar amount. To me this is quite significant. Maybe the USA's expensive shale oil prooduction increase which is all over the news of late simply cannot counter OPEC, Venezuela's massive oil export decline and Libya's ditto. Also China is producing a lot less I have read. Then we have predictions that world demand for oil is increasing rapidly.
Makes me wonder if we are heading for $100 oil again. No........ Surely not???
On 8January 2018 Brent oil closed at 67.78 a barrel and PMO closed at 89p. Since then PMO has churned out circa 80k of oil every day. Brent has comfortable been above 60 dollars a barrel, and as I write it is over 68 dollars. Im confused, there seems no logic to this position.
As I type this Brent crude is $67.65, having moved up 30 cents since the report came out 20 mins ago. Fingers crossed the EIA report tomorrow @ 2:30 our time tomorrow afternoon is also a draw which seems highly likley.
Good to see PMO share price rallying today after a period of weakness. When the oil price has moved up it has usually been late in the day and had little impact on UK share
prices. Will be interesting to see if the price consolidates or moves higher tomorrow that could boost the sp further.
Dropped that 66.5 entry for 4p. Was out all afternoon and left a limit close at 70.4. I had 71p as a potential decision point and the price didn't touch that, so I'm very surprised I got out at 70.4 bearing mind the spread on SBs. I'd assumed it would safely close if price touched 71. Still happy with the result.
First we dropped from 104 to lower than 70 on perceived oil weakness. The correlation in Q1 has just been that way . Though finances are clearly improving the correlation took no notice of that. It will swing IMO as we move into the next quarters as clearly this level Brent is really good for oillies like PMO .
Second we had bondholders selling the stock down , I think that if you look here below last Friday we had the full clearance out of that . The hedge funds involved have certain parameters and mandates. Much like the shorts they and were for convertible arbitrage hedging purposes only , their stock resulting from the conversion was never going to stay on their books .
Private investors probably had collectively less volume traded than the institution. So not sure if they truly influenced the price to this level but for some the small daily drip drip would have seen some bailing out I suppose.
The good news is that support held , it held with oil at the lower levels of the quarter and held the big final institution sell off . That is significant . Now if sentiment comes back and we see $60-67s levels stable for a while PMO will push up .
Look from a technical view the fall below the 200 day was rejected . The 2 long wicks are just that . Say no no no and finding bulls coming back in . So the last 3 candles from my understanding as a technician are bullish .
Would like to pass 76p now , but tonight API may play games with Brent so lets see .
As always levels sub 67p -65p will change my view and push for a bearish case . But not for now and maybe never .
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