(SXX) Sirius Minerals

By the end of this week, SXX will very likely have the lowest 2 week volume of trading since this time in 2010 (and there are more shares around now).

For those of you who were not around at the painful time, it was just before the bottom of the 2p (even lower) saga/scandel (however you want to put it). But clearly the point had come where investors would not sell, and the volume tailed off. Shortly after this, the share price jumped to 8p in a few weeks and 20p by the beginning of the next year.

No TA here. No inside information. Just a history lesson.

(Come to think of it, "painful" doesn't really do it justice.)

Morning Divmad

I have to agree with Mac (having consulted my Urban Dictionary!) :-)

For the MOP market that is. But the rise of poly for the niche, non Chloride suppliers - SOP, SOP-M, langbeinite, it's likely to be curtains for them if they can't cut costs, or if demand is high everyone wins.

I see this as particularly good for Sirius and it remaining independent. The MOP pushers will not see YP as likely damaging competition - and therefore in need of taking out - and the non Chloride potash providers are all too small to threaten Sirius.

GK.

Nowthen H

".... there must also be some risk that the landowners, such as the Duchy of Lancaster (Lancaster? I thought YP was in Yorkshire LOL) will club together and try to eat Chris Fraser's lunch by extracting a goodly chunk of the supposed excess profits."
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I doubt Queenie will have much leverage if trying to extract significant extra wonga from Sirius to add to her pile, as I doubt there will ever be any significant mining under the nearest bit of her manor to DN, so if they suggest they might just take their bat and ball away all you would here from CF is a 'no worries'.

The nearest land to DN the Dutchy owns is some 4000Ha of Goathland Moor to the SW. This is South of the Whinstone ridge (Cleveland Dyke) and the miners won't want to go through that. Also it seems there is little poly down that way. Refs:

Dutchy holdings in NYM:

http://www.duchyoflancaster.co.uk/properties-and-estates/holdings/the-yorkshire-survey/

AOI (royalty deals within this), note Goathland Moor 6km SW of DN:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/809000/809564/NYM-2013-0062-MEIA%20Appendix%205%20Planning%20Application%20Area%20Including%20Non%20Mining%20Sections.pdf

Isopach map of polyhalite occurrence, note the increasing thickness to the NE of DN, a good 50 year's worth before you run in to any faults, also how it decreases to the SW:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/809000/809564/NYM20130062-MEIA%20Figure%2011%20Basic%20Geological%20Elements%20for%20Northern%20Part%20of%20AOI%20Additional-Amended%20Details.pdf

GK.

Seems to me there is a need to get the basic of proving a place in the market place for a relatively unused commpound.
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You appear to suggest that a soil science employee is better placed to prove the efficiency of polyhalite than the many soil scientists employed by the independant University studies currently being carried out.

If you were a potential buyer, which of the above would you give more credence to?

Has the company anyone with a soil science background in its employment?

Seems to me there is a need to get the basic of proving a place in the market place for a relatively unused commpound.

Lots of hype, little proof IMO

I'm just wondering if we will see some early interest from IIs.
Fund managers gamble all the time, why not ride the wave and possibly make a fortune for your clients....and a name for yourself
I doubt whether we will this SP range again (24-26p)

Bob.

The game won't change, just has a new player.

We can't dig it up fast enough to change owt, just a small percentage scrambling for our product like strung out crack heads scrambling for the last rock. Otherwise business as usual, same game same playaz!

I've been mugging up on BHP Billiton's Jansen potash (MOP) project in Saskatchewan, and what the new bloke in charge of the shovels has been saying about it, and I have come to the conclusion [pause for gasps of anticipation] that it is highly likely to be cancelled completely. There is talk of BLT sharing the risk by bringing someone else on board to share the risk (it's a big project costing mebbe $15 billion) but 50% of a dog is still a dog, so it ain't likely to happen in my humble and inexpert opinion.
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You mean to say that you've managed to do some research on a share that you own!

Wow, I'm impressed.
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I dunno what effect that would have on the YP thingy, but lob the thought in for what little it may be worth.
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You need to finally get your head around the difference in approach that Poly affords us over MOP.

I'm confident that you will get there.(in the end)

Stay safe in the Niger.

Time to do some work,

Jono,

"there is going to be a major risk that they will be a taken over whilst the sp is still relatively low."

Picking up on the oil industry reference made in earlier posts there must also be some risk that the landowners, such as the Duchy of Lancaster (Lancaster? I thought YP was in Yorkshire LOL) will club together and try to eat Chris Fraser's lunch by extracting a goodly chunk of the supposed excess profits.

It is absolutely standard practice in the awl biz, if you own the infrastructure (in this case the land under which the Poly is parked), and the would-be mineral extractor has no alternative but to pay you a tariff to get the stuff outta the ground, to shaft the latter summat rotten on the price. Obviously you don't set the fee so high that he walks away, but you set it at a point where it is JUST worth his while to continue with the project.

Mind you, as there are, presumably, a helluva lot of landowners, I expect Chris will be adopting a "Divide et impera" policy with the landowners.

I've been mugging up on BHP Billiton's Jansen potash (MOP) project in Saskatchewan, and what the new bloke in charge of the shovels has been saying about it, and I have come to the conclusion [pause for gasps of anticipation] that it is highly likely to be cancelled completely. There is talk of BLT sharing the risk by bringing someone else on board to share the risk (it's a big project costing mebbe $15 billion) but 50% of a dog is still a dog, so it ain't likely to happen in my humble and inexpert opinion.

I dunno what effect that would have on the YP thingy, but lob the thought in for what little it may be worth.

LKH on the flybridge

With so much potential as a game changing product, surely if sirius do get planning permission then there is going to be a major risk that they will be a taken over whilst the sp is still relatively low. I know that finance has been discussed as being sorted by the end of the year, but I wonder if it will come much sooner than that to raise the sp and protect the company from any bids.
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When one has been watching a company for many years, it is often hard to remember every detail that has come to light in that time, that overall, adds to ones confidence in an investment.

One of those small details is remembering that one of Chris Fraser's strong talents and major roles when he worked for Citibank, was advising and helping his clients avoid and defend take-overs.

I have as much trust as one can have, in his ability to steer Sirius clear from any such approach. So for me it is not a worry.

Cheers,

JayDee

With so much potential as a game changing product, surely if sirius do get planning permission then there is going to be a major risk that they will be a taken over whilst the sp is still relatively low. I know that finance has been discussed as being sorted by the end of the year, but I wonder if it will come much sooner than that to raise the sp and protect the company from any bids.

A few days away from this bb gives a good opportunity to reflect on the big picture here and not get bogged down in minutiae.

For me, I am intrigued by the notion of YP being a "game changer".

We all have our own examples of important past game changers. Microsoft leading the way in microcomputing from the IBM model; the breaking down of the Berlin Wall for capitalism; Genzyme leading the way with genetic biotech drug science; countless others. Each branch of commerce has it's own example, and economies generally grow largely through the commercial application of new ideas, breaking down barriers and left field thinking,

it seems to me that if YP genuinely has a game changing solution for the fertiliser industry, it must be a) of global reach , and b) long lasting and c) provide YP as first mover with excess profits, to use an economic term straight out of an economics 101 textbook.

These economic benefits accruing to YP will be multi year in nature. A large II investor might reasonably look at this potential change in dynamics of the fertiliser industry and take a view that it is well worth waiting for PP first, before committing in size. After all, the first mover advantage in polyhalite will be around for a hundred years or so .

My point is, the fun and games only really start after July 29th for investors in sxx. I trust in common sense prevailing at the NYMPA and seeing the enormous potential for the local economy, national economy, and as a beacon to developers everywhere about how to develop a state of the art environmentally first-class industrial project.

Quite relaxed with my large core position that I expect to hold for a good few years.

Divmad

Good digging UTP, I was wondering if there were evr going to announce the winners.

GLA Chem

Oh sheff I'm shocked! I had you down as more savvy than messing with oil rags! No disrespect to FOGL, I mean AIM oil stocks in general.

Clean Air Power (CAP.L) DYOR
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Haha.

You certainly know more about the oil industry than me, but FOGL isn't a bad shout IMO. Very healthy cash balance, good partners, 3D siesmics, prospective location. Worth having a small fraction of the portfolio there to sell in the pre drill hype. Although I know it sounds a little like the 'greater fool' philosophy!

Will do research on Clean Air Power at the weekend, cheers for the tip.

From 2012....
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''The annual statement also shows that the Queen could benefit from a windfall in the next few years after a mineral prospecting company discovered potash under Duchy land near Scarborough.

The Duchy’s chief executive, Paul Clarke, said: “Sirius Minerals, operating as York Potash, has entered into a prospecting agreement with the Duchy…these are early days but the initial results of from their investigations are positive, identifying a substantial reserve of potash at a deep level.”

He adds in the report that planning permission will be sought for a mine head to extract the potash, a potassium-rich mineral used in fertilizers and in aluminium recycling, which sells for around £300 per tonne.''
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/queen-elizabeth-II/9406904/Queens-private-Duchy-of-Lancaster-estate-rises-in-value-above-400m-for-first-time-accounts-show.html

Update....

Still awaiting to hear if this meeting will be webcast.....for those interested and unable to travel.......

Or be at your desk for moning trading!

Cheers

Camp.

© tick-tock tick-tock.

According to BBC Look North tonight the above asked for £900m for use of their land for the potash mine. Was this already public?

Priority will be given to those in fancy dress

http://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/education/potash-plans-add-up-for-scalby-pupils-1-5770006

Sorry if already posted.

Yes I believe anyone can attend if there's room. Might have to get there early.

Oh sheff I'm shocked! I had you down as more savvy than messing with oil rags! No disrespect to FOGL, I mean AIM oil stocks in general.

Clean Air Power (CAP.L) DYOR

Is this a public meeting which any of us can attend please?

African Potash must be trading near cash and are in the same area as Elemental who are currently being bid for, for around $200 million, am I missing something?
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Check out FOGL if you want to see a good cash/market cap ratio

Hi Wooly

Vanda:

"..with £55m being put into the local economy at the first stage of the project rising to £944m at the end stage. (I think he meant phase II, not the end)."

and:

"...£55m would be paid to land owners (about 500) in the first year"

Interesting how V gets it just slightly wrong and in so doing gives the impression the co is making an outlandish claim.

UP's report 22.44 last night:

".....55 million to local economy at construction, 944 million at full production annually, 60 million a year to local landowners, tax receipts to government at phase 2, 300 million a year to treasury .1 % of GDP at full production......"

and one assumes it all based on the Socio-Economic report:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/809000/809564/NYM20130062-MEIA%20Socio%20Economic%20Report%20Additional-Amended%20Details.pdf

P2 table: annual gross value added for the local area. Construction GVA £55.2m/y, phase 2 GVA £943.9m/y.

OK, but p102/3 sec 5.100, high case (poly at $225/t) phase 2 annual royalty payment to local land owners = £50m/y.

Lost in translation, right?

Still there is one thing you count on with a Whitby seagull, it will always have a go at 5H1**ING on your chips then gladly swallow them up when you don't seem to like them any more.

Hope I haven't spoilt your tea :-))

GK.

Yes - you are posting on the wrong page.

African Potash must be trading near cash and are in the same area as Elemental who are currently being bid for, for around $200 million, am I missing something?

Hi, GK,

I would suggest that you ask that seagull which you are trying to tame (or is it vice versa!) to visit Specsavers and/or get a hearing aid.

At the NYMNP meeting in March the NP said that the ore processing building was more of an industrial scale building, not a farm building. It would be the size of a large supermarket. On RW this was reported as six Tesco superstores !!

I was not at SBC yesterday, but I could smell birdsh1t when I read the following

"Curiously, he went on to state that £55m would be paid to land owners (about 500) in the first year"

That works out at around 22 mt production in the first year !! I have obtained a copy of the slide used and it appeared on there as £5m.

woolybac

Homes which are not permanently occupied now make up 17 per cent of the housing stock compared to 13.5 per cent in 2001.
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Then why plan to build more houses in Whitby and Scarborough!?

There have been discussions in Scarborough and Whitby about building more residential properties for some time now, ever since YP starting looking like a serious prospect if I remember correctly. Could be a coincidence I guess.

However, the question is this; why build more homes unless you have a new source of income for people to with the mortgages/pay rent? Doesn’t look like they are building more second homes and I doubt this is a Keynesian exercise to build homes for the sake of creating jobs.

To me anyway, if makes sense that house building in the area and YP are intrinsically linked (although happy to be corrected).

Chem2,

Seems like all want here not only their cake but to eat it also.

Homes not permanently occupied does tend to indicate the holiday let side of things which will in essence bring in tourism spending on top of everyday living expense. Permanent residents would not bring in the tourist spend. You cannot have it both ways.

Not actually such a bad thing also if as we all know tourism in the area has been on the slide and employment in the National park has fallen by 2.7% as its states. Compeletely reiterates the local economy case here with the need for jobs and prosperity coming from other key industries - and none bigger presently than the York Potash project.

Interesting that it draws in the Planning Policy Officer Caroline Skerry.

If she knocks on the door of Chris France and mentions YP then she should get the answer to most of these problems.

Imvho and please dyor.

Afternoon All

This doesn't paint a great picture but does support the need for a new project to create full time employment and encourage permanent occupation of housing with the subsequent improvement in other areas:

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/Press-Office/News-Articles/second-homes-and-holiday-lets-in-the-national-park-increase-by-27-per-cent

Second homes and holiday lets in the National Park increase by 27 per cent

Second homes and holiday cottages in the North York Moors National Park have increased by 27 per cent in the last 10 years from 1,571 to 2,158.

The increase will be discussed by Members of the National Park Authority at a meeting tomorrow (June 20).

Homes which are not permanently occupied now make up 17 per cent of the housing stock compared to 13.5 per cent in 2001.

The Office of National Statistics figures are part of the 2011 census report which was released in February this year but will be discussed by the Authority for the first time this week.

The housing stock of the North York Moors National Park is largely made up of detached houses – 48 per cent are detached in the North York Moors compared to the national figure of 31 per cent.

Planning Policy Officer Caroline Skelly said: “Further work is required to look at the reasons for the increase in vacant households and whether these are empty homes, second homes or holiday lets and whether there are any particular concentrations of these units.”

Other headlines from the Office of National Statistics are: the population of the National Park has fallen by 2.7 per cent to 23,380 since 2001; the number of houses has increased by 6.8 per cent to 12,500; the population of the over-65s has increased by 4.5 per cent; and the average age has increased from 43 to 46.

There has been a fall of 2.8 per cent in people employed in the traditional industries of agricultural, forestry and fishing in the National Park. In 2001 this employment accounted for a large section of the workforce which has now been overtaken by hotel and catering, education, and, health and social work.

The traditional industries have dropped to nine per cent of the workforce whereas hotel and catering and education now stand at 11 per cent and health and social work has reached almost 12 per cent.

The largest industry in the National Park is the wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles which represents just over 12 per cent of the workforce.

The proportion of working people in the North York Moors has hardly changed in the last 10 years – 28 per cent in full-time work and 13 per cent in part-time work. However, following the national trend, there have been increases in the number of people who are employed on a part-time basis and a fall in those in full-time employment.

The National Park has a high proportion of self-employed people – 19 per cent. This figure is similar to other national parks but nine per cent higher than the national figure of 10 per cent.

The highest Christian affiliation within individual national parks was in the North York Moors - 72 per cent of the population, compared with 59 per cent for England and Wales.

Thursday’s meeting will also point to the need to provide affordable housing to help meet local needs, appropriate housing for the aging population and units for smaller households.

GLA Chem

Hi UP

I write his copy! No, not true.

The idea of balanced fertilization has been around for a long time, but sadly many growers around the world have little knowledge of it's merits. Just one of the numerous ways in which agriculture is very inefficient with productivity low and inputs being wasted. This is changing as it has to.
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"if I can take that in I don't see why LK is struggling with it, seems fairly simple to me."
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Yes, come on Ahab, it's surly worth the effort. After all knowledge is enlightenment and that elicits power in you.

Perhaps you could get your faithful retainer/gally slave/cabin girl-boy???? to help you out with a bit of reading and interpretation during a spare moment.

GK.

Mac1210,

"Boulby is also in the National park"

I'm aware of that, m8! My point (obviously over-subtle) was that there is some risk that, being as Boulby's hideous scar on the landscape is already there, complete with large hole in the ground, rope, Jeffrey, Joy, yadda yadda, there remains some risk that the planners will reject YP on the ground that less damage will be done to the park by the Israelites expanding Boulby rather than by having a new mine at Dove's Nest.

And yeah, I know that there are all sorts of complicated reasons why it'll be hard for CPL to exploit large lumps of Poly as well as MOP and salt.

Nevertheless, there will be those who believe, rightly or wrongly, that, if you want to produce, say, a million tonnes of Poly a year from the Whitby area, it would be easier and cheaper to start from an existing mine rather than from a green field.

That said, I still believe, as I've said before, that the planners will give the green light to Chris and the lads next month.

LKH on the flybridge so that's all right

"This is a game changer"

That's the only bit I need to understand

"The point about reduction of pollution from runoff of P and N is that there is much over application of these and inadequate application of K, S and Mg, consequently the plants don't take up as much of the P and N as they could because the lack of the others make plants less capable of doing so."

Just listened to CF on the recording and you've hit it absolutely on the nail, that's exactly what he was saying,with the balance of the nutrients in Polyhalite, plants don't need as much P and N
that's in other blends because the take up is far more efficient due to the plants stronger early development therefore less of the P & N leaching into the soil and then into rivers,environment ect, if I can take that in I don't see why LK is struggling with it, seems fairly simple to me.

Also an important point that he made was " were not trying to replace the P markets that's not what we are about" its more about nutrient balance in a natural form, I'm not as qualified to comment as some of you on here about this but the message was loud and clear about the benefits of natural product nutrient balance and the results that are now being proven up on this.

Interesting that Dove's Nest is apparently the only economic spot to plonk the hole ... if the Poly seam goes further underground as you go south don't that imply that it might run nearer the surface as you go north ... towards, erm, Boulby?
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You disappoint me LK.......you need to read up how the stuff got there in the first place.

Its not a simple slope N to S.

Think shoreline! (but not the existing one)

All in K&S......happy reading.

Cheers.

Camp.

© tick-tock tick-tock.

Upthepotash,

Thanks for posting and thanks to your friend also for attending. Interesting, well presented and set out stall and imo a compelling case is now beginning to emerge that looks like the SXX camp are having one well timed and almighty go at proving up the case for passing the National Development test.

1. National need. Tick x 4
(GDP Economics + Tax receipts etc compelling, Polyhalite supply undertaking to show there is a market for the 4 in 1 product, Recent Polyhalite Test results on vegetables, Yesterdays "Organic approval".

2. Local Economic benefits if approved and downside if not. Tick x both sides x substantial.
Local economy will benefit massively in job creation in build and post build direct and ancilliary jobs (6000 mentioned) and associated spending. Farmers will be coining it in on mineral rights royalties as well as should the 4000 local North East shareholders. Foundation being set up also has strong merits. Local jobs for local people continuously mentioned and CEMEX quarry aggregate contract is a prime and current example.

3. No alternative site o/s the National Park. Fault lines and uneconomics. Tick
Five alternatives were considered and negated either due to fault lines or the uneconomic nature.

4.Alternative means: Its underground and undersea. The underground mine is the only option (Moses and the parting of the Red sea biblical analogy is not an option here)

5. Mitigating Environmental, Landscape and Recreational Impacts to "acceptable" levels. Landscape concerns re the site imo allayed as mentioned in the presentation. Grass coverings and trees minimising visual impact. In addition the pipeline to transfer the Polyhalite from Doves Nest to Teeside will be underground and out of view. On tourism + the ERS Tourism report - Sec 106 Agreement generous sum proferred to assist with promoting the park and addressing any shortfall in numbers. Environmental. Good work in progress reported and ongoing with positive updates. Awaiting the EA response.

I could go on and elaborate further here but the simple fact is this: Best prospect that the Yorkshire region and the Nation has had of establishing an alternative industry that has potential to run for the next 100 years.

Imvho and please dyor.

Morning Mr H

This is Vanda's (Real Whitby and you'll find her posting as 'Anarchy' on LSE) reporting, for mistakes like this, I forgive her.

The point about reduction of pollution from runoff of P and N is that there is much over application of these and inadequate application of K, S and Mg, consequently the plants don't take up as much of the P and N as they could because the lack of the others make plants less capable of doing so.

With balanced fertilization tailored for each crop and conditions you can maximise beneficial uptake of each needed nutrient and so apply less in total for the same result and so also reduce runoff.

Some background reading on balanced fertilization, p4:

ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/fertuse.pdf

The mine will be at DN or nowhere. The geology drives the economics - the stuff is where it is and it is surrounded by faulted strata that is difficult/dangerous to work through. The geology also drives the safety of mining - long distances, long escape times, poorer air quality - and it also has a consequence on the ecological impact - more tunnels, more spoil, more energy for each tonne.

Have a read of these 2 submissions, initial sec 4:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/809000/809564/NYM-2013-0062-MEIA%20Appendix%201%20Major%20Development%20Assesment.pdf

and final supplementary:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/809000/809564/NYM20130062-MEIA%20Supplementary%20Geological%20Report%20with%20Respect%20to%20Minehead%20Location%20Appendix%201%20Additional-Amended%20Details%20.pdf

GK.

Feeling chipper by the way - saved my marriage last night x

"What an incredible insight. Why didn't we think about it before? By that logic, we can just sweep it up off the floor if we go to Edinburgh".

LMFAO!

I like to prove wrong when the seldom opportunity arises