Sage in the hills.My guess would be, when you are out of favour with the market. You know by now, oil is poison and we will soon all be using clean energy supplied by the fairies. If we ask them nicely, they my be able to supply all the ten's of thousand of byproducts from fertilizer to medicine.
The Tesla battery facility in South Australia can provide power to 30,000 homes for over an hour when at full capacity.So lets say the average house uses £1.00 of electric power an hour,about 5 kw which is generous. They have spent $50 million storing £30,000+ of power.Then there is the upkeep and the replacement of battery's.....I know the real reason they are there is. When the wind farm stop generating the battery's release power until the diesel generators kick in. $50 million for a big UPS...There is always oil in the equation..Keep the faith in oil,and whatever oil company you have invested in.
The worlds largest lithium-ion power pack in South Australia will will be up and running for summer. Summer in S Australia start on the 1 Dec. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/elon-musks-tesla-battery-in-south-australia-poised-for-final-testing
Tullow Oil PLCs (LON:TLW) management is changing its ethos, according to Deutsche Bank analyst David Mirzai, who described Wednesdays update as being a long time coming.
The analyst, in a note, said that aside from a production upgrade, the statement also gave investors tangible proof that Tullows new policy of under-promising and over-delivering is bona fide, though he pointed to a potential refinancing as a key focus for investors.
Tullow has lagged in its traditional coupling to the recent upswing in oil prices, which we think reflects uncertainty over its refinancing, Mirzai said. Realising this milestone is essential to maintaining management credibility in the market.
Our Buy case is based on Tullow's medium term FCF-generation potential with completion of its refinancing by YE17 remaining the key near-term catalyst.
Deutsche repeated a buy recommendation and set a new price target of 225p, up from 210p previously.
Better than expected. On Wednesday, Tullow upgraded its production guidance for 2017, thanks to whats described as a strong performance at the TEN and Jubilee fields, offshore Ghana. The oiler lifted the bar to a rate of 85,000 to 89,000 barrels per day.
Capital spending in 2017 is seen to have reduced, with guidance lowered to US$300mln, which in turn sees the years free cash flow forecast at around US$400mln. Tullow also noted that net debt had reduced to US$3.6bn by the end of October and its reserves based lending arrangements are due to complete before the end of this year. Investors can have more confidence. [The] beat looks genuine and reflects improved operational performance at its TEN and Jubilee fields, as well as a better return on its loss-of-production insurance claims, Deutsches Mirzai added. Tullow's new management team talks to a new focus on "commitment to disciplined spending" and "delivering returns to shareholders'. We think that investors can have greater confidence that the company ethos is changing (for the better), but longer term the debate between cash returns vs higher capex remains a talking point. Nonetheless, the market will likely continue to view Tullow as a geared play on oil price upside and we expect commodity prices to remain the key driver of the stock in the next 12 months.
I have problems with most of the oil companies. They over borrowed when oil was over $100. Tullow borrowed mostly to explore. It was a risk that didn`t pay off even at low interest rates They over borrowed then they were over geared and had to raise equity. Now interest rates are rising and oil prices are rising Tullow are selling assets off and they will need to use cash to pay the bank and develop assets. There are plenty companies out there that generate cash for shareholders and Tullow isn`t one of them. Tullow is still below the price I sold for over 2 years ago.
Natural gas reforming or electrolysis. Both of which require electricity obviously but the processes are getting more and more efficient. If we get to the point where renewable energy can be used to generate hydrogen on a large scale then it's a really good idea as fuel cells act as efficient long term batteries. Once in vehicles they are much more efficient than combustion engines and like electric cars don't come with the same degradation and maintenance issues. Unlike electric vehicles they only take a few minutes to refill.
Cashman is it just Tullow you don't like, our is it oil companies in general that you see no future in? If oil was to reach the $80 mark would you change your mind?..............I wonder what odds Ladbrokes would give me on...."Russia is in talks about joining OPEC." I know the media are saying the opposite , that Russia is loosing patience with OPEC.
Like many other E&P companies, Tullows share price has suffered due to fall in oil price and its high debt balance.
Tullows share price remains depressed due to dilutive impact of the rights issue coupled with lack of investor confidence on how the business will perform in the current market.
I believe management have now stabilised the business. Asset sales and rights issue have helped reduce its debt balance and capital expenditure commitments to manageable levels.
At current oil price business should generate steady free cash flows.
If management can successfully deliver on exploration led strategy it will be a big boon to the share price. I believe there is a high chance that Tullow will deliver.
Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Its core operations are based in Africa and South America. The key business activities include targeted exploration and appraisal and selective development and production. The company has over 85 licences in 17 countries. In the six months to June 2017, Tullow averaged production of 82,400 boepd.
Recent Financial Performance
The following table summarises historical and projected financial performance of Tullow. The projection is based on oil prices remaining flat at current levels (17 November 2017, crude brent: USD/bbl. 61.98). The projected uplift in net cash flows (from 2017 onwards) is driven by:
Reduction in interest expense from the pay-down of debt following the rights issue
Sell off of some of the Uganda project to Total resulting in lower development capex
In the analysis production is assumed to remain flat
Regarding capital expenditure, management havent provided capex guidance beyond 2017 and understably so as it will depend on many factors including the oil price. For the purpose of projection I have assumed capital expenditure of $600m p.a., and is for illustration purposes only
Interest rates have bottomed and on the way up. Tullow has a mountain of debt. The banks are first in line for any revenue, then the directors. It will be a long time before shareholders get a pay out. All while a smaller amount of cashflow gets reinvested in dusters.
The market is also 8 years into the recovery cycle and there is limited upside. Most markets are in a bubble. PEs are high. Very few shares can be found on a P/E less that 10 as some were in 2009.
Well it's difficult to extract and there isn't currently enough production to meet future demand but there is a lot in the ground and not actually that much lithium in a battery.
I saw something on Bloomberg a few weeks back. It said that expected demand over the next 12 years including a huge increase in electronic car production would require less than 1% of global reserves. Also if prices of lithium greatly increased it would hardly affect the price of batteries.
There are other elements in there but the main costs are down to how difficult safe lithium batteries are to make. The conclusion of the piece was don't invest in lithium miners but do invest in battery manufacturers.
There is plenty of oil, and the price is on the way up???!!!.......What makes the battery's so dear then? There must be other rare earth metals used, our maybe a lot of energy is used to extract the Lithium..............There is room for EV and combustion engines in this world especially as crude reserves are diminishing....I would start with every city bus and taxi......It seems if anybody disagrees with Elon Musk and asks questions, they are a hater, the true sign of a cult.
A lot of the media is falling for the hype, you have to go to the comments where people are finding the flaws. If the batteries for the truck cost $100,000 now, imagine when there is shortage of lithium what the batteries would cost...........The new Roadster sport car can go from zero to 60 miles an hour in 1.9 seconds and topping speeds at 250 miles an hour.........I think its time to invest in Tyre companies and undertakers.........Aren't Tyre's made from crude oil.............Kenya is slowly getting back to normal, which will filter through to Tullow. Give it time
Au contraire mon frere as Delboy would say.I believe any family with two cars should try if practical to have one of them electric.It's just all the hype of governments banning them in the future when most of them in power now will not be in power in ten years time.If we listen to all this hype there will be a big pullback on investment and we will be in a big boom and bust cycle.The super rich love the boom and bust economy even if it means misery for normal people...........Remember you still have to generate electricity for these cars....... In a strange way I admire Musk, the way he can fool the media and governments and collect subsidies...Can't wait for the film....... w1ckedsick I hope you get Tesla model 3.
It's interesting that I only ever see hate against Tesla on the oil forums I frequent but on every other type of forum it's incredibly positive. Yes, EVs are not great for your long term oil investments but that's ok. I've been invested in oil since 2008 and also have ordered a Tesla Model 3.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.