I think this should be the week where we see a lot of action on site and with more people going down to spot the site each day, hopefully we will have a better idea on what is happening..
either way, if we don't hear news this week then I don't think it will be good news, as KL3 should be completely finished by now, and with nitrogen use, that gives some indication they might have moved to KL4... so we should be given an update, and if not then it means there has been a delay for some reason, which is never normally good...
anyway lets hold and hope for now, or at least I will...
P.S. if anyone wants to look at a share for this year, possible Hurricane Energy will be making a lot of moves, up 10p in the last month (roughly 33%) and a lot of news to come this year with a lot to gain, now 39p was 68p last year at one point until funding wasn't confirmed and people lost hope, now funding confirmed and early 2019 project aim production.. from here to there will be a very very busy news feed and hopefully a good one!
Can't seem to download into excel either. Nor can I add cash to the account, even after entering the same card details which were accepted on two occasions. I've communicated the problem to iii, but it seems it could take up to 10 days to get an answer!
Some important teething problems. Didn't seem to have the same problems when it was under TDW.
either side of the Intra Day price level appears to be the current movement of UKOG.
The MMs are certainly keeping a keen watch on BBs flow tests.
Get ready to Buy or Sell,these guys will be the first to know.
Corporate Action UK Oil & Gas Investments Plc Delisting from NEX
The Company's shares are currently dual listed on both the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market ("AIM") and the NEX Exchange ("NEX").
UKOG would like to update the market that it has requested to cease trading on the NEX Exchange, which will become effective as of market close on 31 January 2018. This is due to the low levels of trading in UKOG's shares observed on NEX over the past year.
The Company will remain tradable on AIM.
Anyone who is still of the opinion SS has played this straight and honest, should be running for the hills.
If your still holding, your betting SS has deliberately manipulated procedures to flow on a preplanned date [dictated by?? for who's benefit??], illegally withholding price sensitive information from PI's [log results, core results e.t.c.], stall & sabotage esq.
ATM IMO this is what it looks like, just hoping he'll let the stubborn holders make some money.
There are enough financial vehicles around to make sure PI's don't make any real money, should he want it that way.
"No oil exploration company would continue to work a well to flowfor any length of time unlessthere was more than a fair chance of oil flowing."
They are working different zones - this takes time. If k3 doesn't flow then they arn't going to P&A are they? No they will try k4 and k5.
There is oil so it cannot be a 'duster'. It's all about commercial flow. The longer the wait the less chance of getting this. SS has primed everyone for dissapointment (just in case) by claiming BB is now a 'significant national find' rather than a 'nationally significant find', diverting attention onto HH and claiming BB might now show other more prime sites to drill.
Fellow Shareholders if this well was considered a duster it would have been capped a considerable time ago.
No oil exploration company would continue to work a well to flowfor any length of time unless
there was more than a fair chance of oil flowing.
The methodology for progressing this oil to the surface is now being worked on.
Yes I can't see how the game won't be over.
How many times do you think you can fool people into believing something will happen if it doesn't happen ?
I previously posted on here ...a message titled... Jam Tomorrow.
This is now indeed their "flagship" well, coming post HH-1 with all it's learnings, the BB-1Z well is the supposed game changer for the company & the Wealden basin..or it's not!
It's to be the proof of their conceptual petroleum model.
The "concept" of what is a known source rock (= Kimmeridge Clay)
with conduit fractured micritic limestone marker beds
is to be proven to be a "reservoir producing field"
where it's supposed to be proven up beyond doubt these wells will flow conventionally without frack'ing large volumes of commercial oil.
The suggestion this is now just a data gathering exercise is tosh...this is make or break time.
I do except fools and their money are easily parted though.
if Angus just flowed their well for an hour and extrapolated a flow rate of x, y or z then to me that would be nothing more than a con trick.
The idea is to do a clean up flow period then after it a sustained main flow period.
The sustained main flow period (the 8hrs or so of winter daylight time available here) would be used in full to gauge each of the wells zones true actual flow capability...and each done seperately so taking all this time (what is it 3 months now for these lower level zones K1, 2 and 3??)
UKOG need to determine & also prove to investors that this isn't just "flush" production from any of the K zones, which would be typical of fractured reservoirs, but prove that they can get a valid large commercial flow volume produced at the surface from at least one of these zones; expected to be K4 or K5.
As an example...from what you're using...one could be easily misled...
a well might fart for say 30mins and stop entirely (which I understand they say BB-1Z did with drill in fluid being returned) and so one could provide a flow rate by extrapolation of say 1,000bopd from the "flush produced" and it be reported as a flow rate of 1,000bopd but it would not be valid at all having produced only a few bbls if any on the surface and no sustained flow (pumped or natural) at all.
The flow rate needs to be proven and also that it's sustainable over as long a period as possible without any significant pressure decline/drawdown..
and have the volumes produced at the surface to prove it.
The more tankers lined up ready the better....if they believe it's going to flow they would be incompetent not to have tankers available onsite (it should be sold to help recoup costs too).
Crude oil, natural gas and water from the total fluid produced with it all validated in volumes at the surface for future planning.
I understood Angus are only producing <40bopd from their well
(and they shut an adjoining wells production in during the wells work programme)
with the commercial losses it's caused them (how much did the well cost and how long will it take to repay at that rate of return?) I'd be very concerned for them and their stakeholders (I'm sure the directors will be OK though).
I know all this is about BB at the moment, and I really hope it does well but a lot of investors here must not do a lot of research into the companies they invest in.. i say a lot but maybe just a few.
the idea of saying we are expecting 1500 to 2000 bopd is bad to start off with as it means anything underneath that you will count as a failure, but If we got 1000bopd I would be more than ecstatic, especially with the current results to now. also KL3 is still thought to be an okay zone, but I agree that KL4 and 5 are the main ones we want to look at. with KL4 being the same height as flowed at HH i think? maybe someone can correct me on that.
additionally seeing tankers before news is a hard one but i agree with estimations taken, your both right.. he wont let it flow substantial without tankers there, but he also isn't likely to let it flow substantial and will extrapolate values for bopd gained and thus will be able to give information out before the need for tankers on site. additionally.. the sign of waste tankers is always good and as long as we keep seeing those its a good sign that the well is replacing fluids.
I think like always people are too quick to jump to conclusions and think because nitrogen has left at the end of last week and the waste tankers have been seen then results should be out the next day? it will be late week or next week before an RNS..
kjr59, you say 'but K4 and K5 zones later in the sequence need to prove large volumes or the games over.'
Is that really true? I was under the impression that the line UKOG are taking is that BB is an exploratory well from which they are learning multiple lessons which will benefit them when drilling elsewhere in the Weald. So whether or not it produces oil in commercial quantities isn't actually the point and never was.
If that is so, I find it hard to square that position with the earlier talk of BB being their 'flagship' operation. 'Flagship' is meant to mean the best, not a ship that leads the way.
So I am bracing myself for the news that BB is a dud in terms of recoverable oil, and praying that the market accepts that nevertheless the information gained there is positive enough to keep the SP from plummeting down.
When I say 'praying', I am not a religious man. But just as there is no such thing as an atheist in a fox-hold in the heat of battle, when shells are exploding all around, so this whole UKOG business is almost enough to get me down on my knees too. Perhaps because I have slightly too large an amount invested in it.
I suppose the question is whether it is jam today, or jam tomorrow, or jam never. If BB is a 'dud', which I think I rather expect it to be, so long as UKOG can convince the market that there will still be jam tomorrow, I think the SP should hold up. And I can't imagine the outcome being that UKOG say there will never be any jam from anywhere.
That doesn't seem likely, so I comfort myself with the thought that I don't mind waiting!
Testing flows would work as per angus..... test flow for 6 hours, 1boph would equate to 24bpd, 10 bopHour - 240 bpd, 100bopHour - 2,400bpd.
In this test time they would be altering choke to stabalize the flow pressure to gain better idea of how the well responds.
So as a tanker carries 200 barrels, tankers would be after the event unless we were flowing at what, 400bophour.
Can but dream I suppose.
before the engineering crew can flow the BB-1Z well of any significant oil volume onsite ...
they will have to have tankers available to take up that flow capacity
as the stock tank volume won't be anywhere near enough capacity for the expected flow volume. What is expected...circa 1,500 to 2,500 bopd?
even if they don't get the large volume anticipated they would still need to have the tankers ready and available as a contingency prior to flowing.
So the cart doesn't go before the horse.
So they would be onsite available before the well flows as a contingency to off take the volume and enable the well to be flowed as optimally as possible over the flow period available to them.
They would not want to shut the well in because they don't have the capacity for the wells flowing volume. The whole idea is to get the well to flow and determine the true maximum rate and the pressure drawdown associated with it.
So tankers onsite would be known about in advance of any flow volumes being reported.
As the test progresses then the tankers would be utilised...providing large volumes are produced..taking the crude offsite (to Fawley or similar refinery) to manage the well tests capacity.
The timing is also critical as flow periods are generally only for HSE purposes during daylight hours..I'm sure the licence will be resticted to this too.
So winter daylight from dawn to dusk is then the flow period available..
maximum sunrise 08:30hrs until sunset 16:30hrs = 8hrs
Plus usually walk the production system at dawn before flowing so will loose an hour before committing to open the well.
So expect tankers to turn up and be available prior to an early morning main flow period ready to take the days flowing production away as it gets produced from the stock tank.
Don't expect much from K3 zone
but K4 and K5 zones later in the sequence need to prove large volumes or the games over.
These tests of the individual zones will be sequencial one after another up the well and take time for each to be accomplished so still some time yet.
I expect they are only on K3 which isn't expected to flow much fluid (and not much crude if anything it will be more drill in fluids being returned) it will be like the earlier deeper zones.
I no longer post on LSE for the reason I state here but still keep track of postings there and so I find it illogical and nieve to think they think they will see OIL tankers BEFORE SS announces that oil is now flowing.
Such a situation would place the limited number of those in the know with equivalent inside information BEFORE the market knows and clearly SS would not allow that to happen.
So common SS lets have some positive news given enough time surely after your Christmas layoff
Last week nitrogen lifting early this week waste tankers to get rid of the water and mud next oil without which expect UKIG to crash it is that important to underpinning SS statements we have a Weald wide oil play here
we are now over 2 weeks into the new year when we have resumed work after the strange Christmas break when many other businesses are still working. I understand thge nitrogen lift was over last week andf that as I unbderstand it is to get rid of the water and mud column preventing oil to flow. So whats holding things up now. If oil had flow after the lift you would have thought there would be some qualitative news of thjis after all the delays and problems.
I am now beginning to feel there could be even more problems as is SS's way to keep these close to his chest with no news forthcoming and for ME the level of risk has now risen considerably and I also note P2 G who I hold in high esteem is also silent so I have taken his lead and sold out today and will keep my cash until I hear something positive and only then get back in although with some opportunity loss as if the news is good this will still have some way to go
In case you missed it, repeating Doriemus discussion.
As well as Doriemus RNS, see Angus RNS below,
Angus Energy To Resume Conventional Production
From Brockham & Lidsey Oil Fields Company Will Increase Production To Four Wells in Q1 2018
Angus Energy Plc, a conventional oil and gas production and development company, is pleased to announce that it will resume conventional production from two currently temporarily suspended wells in its portfolio.
The Company will re-commence production from the Portland Resevoir via the BR-X2Y well at Brockham in March, as well as the Great Oolite Resevoir at Lidsey from the Lidsey-X1 well this February. This, combined with existing production from the Lidsey-X2 well and expected production from the Brockham BR-X4Z well (see below), is expected to give the Company a total of four wells in production in Q1 2018.
These operations reflect improved market conditions and an increase in oil pricing and will enhance the Company's financial flexibility. Prior to their temporary closure, the BR-X2Y and Lidsey-X1 wells had normative operations at approximately 50bbl/day combined.
Further to the Company RNS 23 October 2017, the installation of a connection to the National Grid for selling on-site power generated from associated gas production is in progress, contracts have been executed with a scheduled completion in March 2018. Prior Company guidance for the beginning of production from BR-X4Z is unchanged.
Subsequent to the Company RNS 20 November 2017, the Company has completed its review of initial flow rates from Lidsey-X2. The installation of a new pump to optimise pressure differentials and maximize production flow rates will be completed in February 2018.
All the aforementioned operations are performed through conventional production. There will be no hydraulic fracturing or "fracking".
With empty nitrogen being seen leaving the site, surely we are close to results coming out and thus should see some sort of tankers this week if anything is good? Storage on site is adequate but for big numbers that everyone is hoping for, tankers should definitely be seen,
Whats everyones thoughts?
Is P2G still here? Would be nice to see if hes still involved
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