" FTSE FUTURE (FTSE:UKX) We always try and find ridiculous analogies to weave some of our local Argyll stories in with market movements. But this weekend, watching a pod of Killer Whales 'playing' with the local, lazy, fat, seal population is ..."
"Hi Jack, fully understand your reasoning, however my understanding is that the new margin requirements being implemented in July will not affect existing positions. That is to say, that any open positions you hold on the day which the changes become effective will not require any additional financing, but can continue to be held until closed at original opening margin levels, only trades opened on or after the day the changes are introduced will be affected."
Thanks for that & well done also with your recent successes with LLOY's! Always good to see other traders get well-deserved rewards, as with Soi's regular gains.
Your observation re ESMA certainly appreciated. I had no idea. If I'm still well adrift with a couple of existing UKX longs by July, I may now hold on with those for longer than otherwise. It broadens my options.
I'm still planning to clean up a few leveraged positions, even without ESMA, due to higher risks from external political factors. Namely CNA as it seems more vulnerable to a sudden GE & that we have an already weak UK govt. But that was the plan a while ago & I expect to settle those closer to CNA's ex-date.
FWIW, whilst I see the reasoning for ESMA's regulatory margin increases for leveraged positions from July, especially for novice & less experienced traders as the stats for overall failure & loss with leverage are close to a very high 90%, I also feel that self-accountability & learning from inevitable errors, as costly as that can sometimes be, is part & parcel of most trading. Especially so with SBs & CFDs.
We all participate voluntarily & try to improve our approach along the way, including in my case working on self-disciplines like avoiding being over-leveraged. That's taken time & significant loss, but I have made progress.
ESMA's regulations mean well, but to some of us they're more of a needless interference. That view not uncommon among traders. - Regards & GL.
Hi Jack, fully understand your reasoning, however my understanding is that the new margin requirements being implemented in July will not affect existing positions. That is to say, that any open positions you hold on the day which the changes become effective will not require any additional financing, but can continue to be held until closed at original opening margin levels, only trades opened on or after the day the changes are introduced will be affected.
A good move IMO
RNS Number : 9153J
Vodafone Group Plc
05 April 2018
5 April 2018
VODAFONE UK ACQUIRES SPECTRUM FOR 5G SERVICES
Vodafone UK has acquired 50 MHz of spectrum in the 3400 MHz band for mobile data services in Ofcom's auction for a total cost of £378.2 million (433.4 million).*
Vodafone UK will use the 3400 MHz spectrum to deploy 5G services, enabling Gigabit speeds and lower latency to enhance applications including connected vehicles and robotics, industrial automated systems, and virtual and augmented reality.
The spectrum acquired has a twenty-year term and is convertible to perpetual licences thereafter.
Vodafone UK has the following spectrum holdings before and after the auction:
VODAFONE GROUP ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF THE SALE OF VODAFONE QATAR
Further to the announcement dated 26 February 2018, Vodafone Group Plc ("Vodafone Group") today announces that Qatar Foundation has completed its acquisition of Vodafone Europe B.V.'s 51% stake in the joint venture company - Vodafone and Qatar Foundation LLC - that controls Vodafone Qatar Q.P.S.C. ("Vodafone Qatar").
Vodafone Group and Vodafone Qatar have entered into a five year Partner Market agreement, ensuring Vodafone Qatar will continue to use the Vodafone brand and benefit from the expertise and assets of Vodafone Group.
Knowing the result you look for the sp chart and interpret it to support your theory. Classic!
If your charts were reliable thousands of people and bots would have been able to predict FB's fall from grace and then the selling out would have started before the scandal hit.
I can see that its sp fell during the February correction and then partially recovered in the unsettled market until the scandal hit. If your charting predictions were accurate then we would have seen significant falls well ahead of FB's reputational difficulties.
I understand perfectly why FB has been accumulating value since 2012 and I understand perfectly why it has suddenly lost lots of value. Your charts could not and did not predict the scandal.
Don't tell me you are a climate change denier. You have all the hallmarks of one. Blank refusal to see what is staring you in the face.
"And that is the limitation. Charts aren't much use at predicting events or emotional reactions to those events."
That is of course true, but in fairness most chartists agree. Their argument is, I think, that these are scare events. The important thing to look for is the trend, which of course charts do highlight.
Whether decades of elliot waves can accurately predict the stock market ten years in advance well I'm in the doubting camp.
One thing I'm sure of bucket loads of free cash flow on the cheap quickly get bought up.
Frog, you ask a question but then without knowing the answer you come to a conclusion. Classic!
Please tell me you're not a climate change scientist!
As it happens I don't follow facebook but having just looked at a chart for the first time out of curiosity what immediately stands out is that your conclusion is wrong!
FB has been in a clearly defined rising channel since 2012 (that's as far as my FB chart data goes back - maybe that's when FB floated? No idea). Like I said, "clearly defined" - you can't miss it.
The SP spiked up and hit the top of the channel at the beginning of February and since then (predictably) it fell off a cliff. It should reach the bottom of the channel in due course, which is currently ~145.
You're free to DYOR and come to a different conclusion if you wish but you might wish to do yourself a favour and at least apply some logic, analysis or reasoning before doing so!
Ignore the charts if you wish. It matters not a jot to me. But as I've said, they're another tool for the box.
" .... having a set of screwdrivers in your toolbox isn't as useful as having a set of screwdrivers and a set of spanners!!!"
FRTEB - first things first... you are quite right, ours is a precarious pursuit at the best of times, it can only ever be good practice to avail yourself of every tool you can. It's very much my mantra - don't rely on one metric, look at ten... no piece of information is intrinsically unimportant and should only be dismissed after proper consideration, etc. And yes, I look at charts myself, on a regular basis (as I've always said)...
"Given your background I can't help but feel that your 'anti-charts' stance might be, well, somewhat disingenuous... you'll be well aware of pivot points, lines of support/resistance, etc, and the traders and HFT computers that buy and sell at key identified levels. In other words, past price movements help predict future price movements. I would therefore have thought you would be encouraging people to use charts as a helpful tool, not making disparaging remarks against anyone who does."
And yes, in the City, people are looking at charts all the time. BUT... it is also there that I learned my scepticism - not of charts per se, but of any over-reliance on them. It is hard to generalise when it comes to the City, which has always encapsulated the whole gamut of styles, approaches, techniques - and the City also bubbles, on any one day, with the sort of debate and diversion of opinion that we get on these boards.
But I think I can say - charts probably play a bigger role on the trading side of things, as you suggest with the point about HFT, etc, where the focus is predominantly on short-term movements, often intra-day. But in the area I am more conversant with, the world of sell-side and buy-side equity analysis and fund management, there is a general aversion to using charts for anything more than background information. With particular suspicion reserved for those "colourful" characters, the "technical analysts" who occasionally walk the trading floors (somewhat less so these days).
It is certainly not disingenuous, it is merely that many of us learn from experience how, when and why the charts can fail us. In short, sometimes they tend to work for a while... until they don't. And sometimes, they just don't, at all. The further back you go, the less likely they are to hold meaningful wisdom... perhaps for stocks in long-term steady-state, but they are a minority species. The general belief is that charts cannot predict future fundamental change, in either direction, and that is in essence what at least that part of "the City" is trying to do.
I never intend "disparaging remarks" against those using charts, and I'd be surprised if anyone could identify such - but I concede I have directed the same, from time to time, against both the dubious "discipline" of Technical Analysis, and sometimes certain specific conclusions derived from charts. Two different things, I would say?
With VOD, I see some utility in the chart going back, say, a couple of years, possibly slightly longer. But given the fairly seismic fundamental evolution of both VOD's business and its industry context over the longer period, I see no way that the 20 or 30 year picture can hope to "help predict" future movements. You may as well try to use the same for a Google or an Amazon... (VOD being only marginally older as a business than these). Of course, it doesn't stop people trying, but the process often confuses cause and effect - and co-incidence with meaningful conclusion.
" "Bill, would I be right in thinking you used to work in the City in finance/investments? (apologies if I'm getting you mixed up with someone else)."
FRTEB - yes, that is true, I have done at different times in the past. "
Thanks - I thought I'd picked up on that from somewhere.
However, the reason I asked: I find it odd that you keep denigrating any mention of using charts as a tool to help with investing. Given your background I can't help but feel that your 'anti-charts' stance might be, well, somewhat disingenuous. Your previous post is a case in point (but there are others) :
" Ah, the charts, the charts... you go back far enough, they'll tell you anything you want to hear. Back to 1996? You'd only have to go back about another 10 years and you'd find that VOD doesn't even exist yet, a mere glint in the rapacious eyes of those chancers in the braces at Racal (or wherever it was). "
With your background you'll be well aware of pivot points, lines of support/resistance, etc, and the traders and HFT computers that buy and sell at key identified levels. In other words, past price movements help predict future price movements. I would therefore have thought you would be encouraging people to use charts as a helpful tool, not making disparaging remarks against anyone who does.
Some people only use charts and to hell with the fundamentals, and I wouldn't for one moment advocate doing that (although I have occasionally). But IMHO charts are definitely another tool for the box and a damn useful one at that.
I know you're a helpful soul, and make some insightful and useful comments, but having a set of screwdrivers in your toolbox isn't as useful as having a set of screwdrivers and a set of spanners!!!
"Bill, would I be right in thinking you used to work in the City in finance/investments? (apologies if I'm getting you mixed up with someone else)."
FRTEB - yes, that is true, I have done at different times in the past.
But as I've always freely conceded, whilst it gives me a certain amount of experience and perspective that others may not have (though there are at least a few others on these boards with a similar background, as I understand it), you should never overstate such an advantage when it comes to investing and/or trading.
And it certainly doesn't amount to access to any crystal ball, when it comes to things like the future direction of the VOD share price...
"I think VOD falling to ~145 is highly likely. Just look at a long term chart - it's the obvious long term level of support on a very shallow rising line going back to 1996."
Ah, the charts, the charts... you go back far enough, they'll tell you anything you want to hear. Back to 1996? You'd only have to go back about another 10 years and you'd find that VOD doesn't even exist yet, a mere glint in the rapacious eyes of those chancers in the braces at Racal (or wherever it was).
In this market - TBH, in any market - you'd never rule out anything falling another 25%. That's what markets do, from time to time, and no reason to think that'll ever change. But they also go up, too - often when you least expect it. And while it may be a case of three steps forward and two back, the overall long-run direction is still up.
VOD is a fundamentally different business, in geographical and operational profile, than it was in 1996... and than it was in 2006, and even 2012 for that matter. I very much doubt we will see 145p here - I see 245p (where we've been, pretty much, only recently, lest we forget) as far more likely, but I'd never dismiss the possibility.
"Will the dividend be cut? .... I certainly wouldn't rule it out... especially if the sp fell back significantly. VOD is currently involved and potentially involved in several high value deals, the outcome of any is uncertain and the method of funding is currently unclear."
At 145p, VOD would be yielding 9%... unless they did indeed cut the divi. No dividend is ever safe, as most of us learn the hard way, sooner or later, and VOD's divi is undeniably relatively high, on a number of metrics. But it would still be perverse to cut it when the overall Number 1 metric (FCF cover) is looking healthier than at any point in living memory - at least the last 7-8 years, and very possibly, all the way back to 1996, for all I know. I also don't see much of an issue if the SP "feel back significantly", as this would have zero effect on any of the key debt or dividend cover metrics.
Though it would make it "easier" to cut, at the margin, with the argument that the market was no longer giving "value" for the dividend commitment. FWIW I don't see the current management team cutting the divi - they've never even hinted it has occurred to them. But longer term, as FRTEB correctly says, who knows?
CEOs come and go, and always bring new perspectives - and old VC has been there a relatively long time now. And the deal with Liberty, if indeed it comes to pass, is likely to be of sufficient scale that it at least throws all sorts of current issues - including the divi but much more besides - up in the air.
We will find out soon enough... I am optimistic VC will see us okay, he has earned that trust and he will certainly not want his last big deal, which this could well be, to be seen as a bad one. As for the SP - at the risk of upsetting people, I make my usual observation that with VOD as with the market, people are invariably more bearish at the bottom of the SP range than at the top... I still see 250p as "fair value" here, and I see no reason to change this until the fundamentals, not the SP, tell me otherwise.
And yes - I can see 250p in the charts, and much more so than I can see FRTEB's 145p. But then, I'd be the first to admit, my eyesight ain't what it used to be...
I've just checked my MacBook to see if my built-in camera is looking the right way, and someone hasn't 'updated' it with some stealth malware, similar to ransomware...
Every time I top up (over the last 2 weeks), the share price drops, and then when I pause a little and don't buy it goes up - 2% today!
Time for a change of plan / investment strategy me thinks. I'm going to wait until it gets to ï¿½1.45 or ï¿½1.60 or any other price much lower than it is now before I dip into VOD again. Based on my current strategy I think current investors may be safe...
I would be very surprised if 145 was hit unless some significant unexpected event either to the market or Vodafone were to arise; however, the way the markets currently are, I could see 160 being hit, so another 10 to 15% drop, and my reason is I see the wider market potentially falling by a similar level. Just the current environment, Trump and his potential trade war, Brexit, potential of rising interest rates, considering, seems little room for upside right now, and if there's not much profit to be made on the up, people tend to move their money elsewhere all in the hopes of buying it on the cheap. Time will tell. But I defo see potential buying opportunities on the horizon.
With current debt, do you think that is realistically possible...and/or likely?
If so, I presume you reckon the div would be snipped? "
El Kel, anything is possible. I think VOD falling to ~145 is highly likely. Just look at a long term chart - it's the obvious long term level of support on a very shallow rising line going back to 1996.
Will the dividend be cut? Who knows? Again anything is possible. I certainly wouldn't rule it out. It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility for VOD to cut the divi in order to reduce debt, especially if the sp fell back significantly. VOD is currently involved and potentially involved in several high value deals, the outcome of any is uncertain and the method of funding is currently unclear. Then there's the pending 5G auction + inevitably things that we don't yet know about.
Having said all of the above, I think VOD is a good business, albeit a gigantic and complex one with accounts that are somewhat 'different' (see previous discussions here a few weeks back). FWIW If I was already invested in VOD then I would probably hold no more than a 50% position, with a plan to buy the other 50% at lower levels. Personally I'm holding off to start buying in at lower levels. If they don't arrive then so be it, but I think they will.
NB - I am a HOLD (must have a gremlin - couldn't get the Sell button to change)
Just to note that the significant drop in price today was on the back of relatively high share volume (over 113 mio). Any thoughts / expectations of where the price might eventually settle or are there too many unknowns out there currently (both market & stock specific)? Alternatively would a pretty quick bounce back to the 200p area be likely...? I'm looking to get back in using my so called Verizon windfall ( or forced sale as I viewed it ! )
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